Thursday, August 03, 2006

Where are we going?

The Israelis say that they need a couple of weeks to wrap up their operations. Once they're done, they'll leave a destroyed Lebanon behind them, over a thousand individuals who no longer live among us on this planet, a Hizaballah that is weaker militarily but politically untouchable!

Sometimes I wonder how stupid people in leadership positions can be - and how obsessed over certain issues they become. For Israelis today, the obsession is: we cannot leave without a "decisive victory" over Hizballah. "Whatever the cost, we NEED a decisive victory." We need it because we don’t want “the savages” to perceive us as wimps. Does it not occur to these people that the cost of teaching “the savages” a lesson may actually outweigh the benefits???

Yesterday, according to the Washington Post, Lebanese Acting Foreign Minister Tarek Mitri said that he doubts his government would agree to invite a European-led intervention force into southern Lebanon, citing fierce opposition from Hezbollah and its key foreign backers, Syria and Iran. Mitri also said that “no solution” to the current violence in Lebanon can be found without the participation of Syria and Iran in the search for a political settlement.

Does that man sound like he is in a politically strong position? Does he sound like he has the upper hand in his battle to stamp out Syrian and Iranian influence inside of Lebanon?

You tell me!

So what did the Israelis accomplish over the last two weeks? 1) They killed around a thousand Lebanese, 2) they flattened entire neighborhoods, villages and towns resulting in over 750,000 displaced people 3) they crippled Lebanon's infrastructure - taking the country back to the damn stone age, 4) and last but not least, they destroyed the first and only proudly secular, liberal political and social movement in the entire Middle East. A movement that effectively stood up to fundamentalists, and at the very least, looked them eye-to-eye and contained them.

I am very aware that Israelis visit this site. So my message to those visitors is that you not only destroyed the dreams of an entire generation of Lebanese (i.e. my own, and probably my children's). But, you guys and your government just shot yourselves in the foot! And I don't mean merely with one shot. No! I mean, you guys got an M-16 rifle, put it on full automatic and shot both your feet to smithereens.

Your reckless “shock-and-awe” military campaign ultimately turned a political-military organization that you hate into the Arab World’s hero; and in doing so, you have only increased the influence of your arch-nemesis, Iran. Ultimately, the biggest losers are the Lebanese people, and the hope they manifested in a region characterized overwhelmingly by hopelessness and depression.

Whoohooo! Great Job Folks!

38 comments:

Raja said...

No John, I am neither kidding nor cynical. The March 14 movement in Lebanon asserted itself in a way that was unprecedented in the region.

It was a stark and powerful contrast to Hizballah. Diverse, Secular, Open to the West, Democratic, Fractured, Peacefull, Fun loving.

The ideals that March 14 manifested were as much, if not more, of a threat to Hizballah than Israeli military force.

In fact, allow me to correct myself... Hizballah actually flourishes in conditions of war, as is plain to see now.

Dry Gin Martini said...

Israel said many times that the only solution to "X" is to eliminate people "Y". And it's very funny, Omer, that you, an Israeli Jew, says that your blood is worth less. History only taught us that Jewish blood is the most precious in the universe, ever since WWII. Please, spare us the victimization of your aggressive regime.

Dry Gin Martini said...

Omer, you would have done yourself good leaving out the 1948 sentiment out of your argument. The state of Israel should have never been formed in the 1940's, it was illegal, it was wrong. Now, however, it's an established entity, and to say that it should be annihilated is illogical. So choose your arguments carefully, you're not talking to idiots. And when I watch the news I only see your victimization, since I live in the US.

Dry Gin Martini said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Lirun said...

i'm starting to feel like a broken record.. i think the tragedies that are occurring are aweful.. and i dont think the pain is erasable..

its a bit exhausting to deal with the constant "you're such a monster" argument "israel should die" bla bla because having lived abroad i can tell you that such meaningless diatribe is always spun at someone somewhere and it changes nothing.. many people on our side of the border think the same about various arab states.. personally i have defended muslim friends being attacked in the same manner in various jobs i held overseas.. it is a stupid and vicious manner of expression that one can only take personally..

but i dont care about them.. it doesnt change the fact of who we are and what we are.. and it doesnt necessarily change you either..

if we spend so much time picking the wounds - how will they heal..

israel's peace movement is very substantial.. and just like lebanon's it has torn our country into bitterly opposed factions..

the strangest thing is the parrallel nature of our factions.. those who dont want peace on our side can easily cooperate with those who dont want peace on yours.. because their objectives are complementary.. the same goes for those who want peace..

the problem being of course that violence pollutes trust and leaves us with barren soil for dialog.. after every aggression the voices of those seeking peace become dimmer and dimmer until they're eventually mute

our countries have both achieved so much in spite of very unfavourable odds.. as we have prevailed on our own in the past.. i urge us now to prevail together.. as we have attained the seemingly impossible before i ask that we do the same now and show the world we can..

wishing peace and safety to all

lirun
telaviv
www.emspeace.blogspot.com
where there's a will there's a way..

CMAR II said...

Raja,

Your reckless “shock-and-awe” military campaign ultimately turned a political-military organization that you hate into the Arab World’s hero;

It is sooo easy to become a hero among Arabs. After 9-11, "Osama" became the most popular name for newborn baby boys.

But I'm waiting for some Lebanese to tell me why Israel should care what the Lebanese think about them.

When the Lebanese liked them so much 4 weeks ago (ha ha) were they willing to disarm Hizballah? Were they on the verge of cracking down on their terrorist activities?

What? You say they COULDN'T do that because it would start a civil war? I get that. But that still leaves Israel with the problem of a terrorist organization attacking it from Lebanon.

So how would Lebanon be different FOR THE ISRAELIS if everyone in Lebanon already hated them (which is practically true anyway).

Lirun said...

great things dont come easy.. but i think of it a bit like the environment.. people can ignore the needs for only so long.. and sooner or later there will be no choice.. other silliness will become even more ridiculously irrelevant than it is to day..

the hope however is that we not wait for such dire realities but rather act now.. all time between now and then is just unnecessary blood spilling and unnecessary pain and a lot of missed friendship and good neighbourly relations that we could otherwise be enjoying..

wishing we sober up sooner rather than later

lirun
telaviv
www.emspeace.blogspot.com
אל תגידו יום יבוא הביאו את היום
(Al tagido yom yavo haviu et hayom)
dont say the say will come - bring the day

Lirun said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Lirun said...

sherri

do you view the attacks and consequent evacuation of the entire north of israel due to.. wait for it.. hang on.. fasten your seatbelts..

2 3 0 !!!! rockets being shot at it yesterday ALONE!! is genocide?

i dont think either cases are.. yes these are disgusting times but ethnic cleansing is very much purpose related and not just about people dying.. otherwise you could call any war ethnic cleansing which it is clearly not..

you know.. some people cant grasp this.. but many times very good people have a very genuine dispute.. not calling anyone good or otherwise.. but we have to weaken the perception that "all who disagree with us are evil" because that is very narrow minded and unhelpful..

a young israeli man has lost both his legs in this war - they showed him on tv today.. following the HA's example you'd expect to see him dragged off boiling metal plates and with blood everywhere.. but no.. he was holding his guitar smiling and his dad said he was happy his son was alive.. the kid was telling people to lighten up..

there are many ways to pitch a message.. and many ways to look at reality..

wishing peace no matter what

lirun
telaviv
www.emspeace.blogspot.com
its achievable

Lirun said...

what sort of melody are you imagining? like a soulful gospel/R&B or a more middle eastern fusion or perhaps a baroque style?

Raja said...

Ghassan,

if you read my entry properly, you will notice that I referred to the March 14 Movement, as opposed to political grouping. The March 14 Political Coalition DEPENDEND on the popular movement for its legitimacy, and ultimately, existence. The second point I would like to make, Ghassan, is to reemphasize a difference between sectarian and religious. Hizballah is a Religious Fundamentalist movement. By comparison, most of the other political entities in Lebanon are Sectarian, but NOT religious. I believe you and I had a little discussion about this a couple of months ago!

On the one hand, you have more of a familial/clannish/identity arrangement, and on the other you have an entity based on, and feuled by, religious principles which in most circumstances oppose familial impulses.

As for those responsible for the situation we are in today, I can only blame Hizballah and the Israelis for escalating the conflict to the level it is at today. The March 14 political coalition suffered from major shortcommings and miscalculations. However, it is safe to say that almost everything was done to disarm Hizballah, short of utilizing force, which would have led to an even bloodier civil war.

March 14 needed a little more time (for god sakes, they had a little more than a year) and an Israeli State that wasn't so eager to prove its bloody manhood!!!

CMAR II said...

Dany,

You are totally missing my point.

They are in as much danger from armed thugs as Israel. At least, you have a border dividing you, but they are right in the midst of us!

I agree. I'm not even in Israel. I have an OCEAN separating me from HA. But that's why Israel is actually doing the free, patriotic Lebanese (not the agents of foreign governments) a favor by doing what the Lebanese could not...and didn't CARE to because it was the problem only for those nasty Jews.

Isreal and the US, with all their capabilties could not have missed this [shipping truckload after truckload of arms into Lebanon]! They just decided to keep quiet and turn a blind eye...

In case you haven't noticed, Lebanon is not a safe place for the US or Israel to do massive intelligence. Do you really want the US (or Israel) to come in and police Lebanon's border with Syria? Perhaps Israel will end up doing that. ;-)

...because they did not want to rock the boat and risk tipping the wobbly Syrian regime and ending up with an Islamist republic in Damascus

If you think the US is trying fortify the Asaad's government, then you know nothing about US MidEast policy.

But they still insisted that the Lebanese gvt disarm HA.

Yes, I know, but they couldn't because it would mean a civil war. So, what choices does that leave Israel? How would Lebanon be different as an enemy state where everyone hated or distrusted Israelis? Answer: It wouldn't be diffent at all. In fact, that was pretty close to the truth in Lebanon already.

(continue on next post)

lisoosh said...

Raja - I greatly enjoy your blog, and it is devastating to read of the frustration of Lebanese viewing their country at war.
Nasrallah was never contained. His action against Israel was as much a military coup as it was an aggressive move against a much larger neighbour. His current threats of reprisals to all Lebanese betray his true motives.

I understand that the Lebanese want to avoid a civil war, but Nasrallah has started one anyway. Either the actual Lebanese people stand up to him or he wins.

JoseyWales said...

Raja,

I am with you on emotions but I am afraid I disagree with analysis.

Time was never going to solve this. Most my friends agree with you, I don't.

There was nothing to discuss with Hezbo. They said touch our arms we'll cut off your hands and heads.

Same with Iran's nukes discussion, you really believe that is going anywhere?

Israel had clearly theatened Lebanon several times and finally had to act (following a clear ACT OF WAR by the Hezb). That does not mean I like what I see nor that I am defending Israel's strategy.

The Lebanese were stuck and paralysed even before the catastrophe and Hezbo was getting away with murder.

Mitri was as hapless before July 12 as he is today and he has himnslef and Siniora to blame.


If you don't take the initiative (and risks) someone else will.

For crying out loud what does our fucking gvmnt want?? Mitri is yacking about what Hezbo, Iran and Syria wants??

What the hell does it take for someone in this stupid gvmnt to take a position on ANYTHING, ANYTHING??

CMAR II said...

Dany,
(continued)

As much as I think that the Leb gvt's performance was desastrous, I still say: how did you expect this gvt to stop Hizbullah, when you don't even pressure Syria to stop their arm supply?

You can thank the UN and the EU for that. The US has its hands full trying to pressure Syria to stop shipping arms to Takfirs and recalcitrant Ba'athists in Iraq (without a lot of success thanks to the UN and EU).

One more piece of info: At least as many weapons was shipped into the palestinian camps of the Bekaa as for HA...Israel cannot possibly not know about it. Are they doing or saying anything?

I'm not sure how you know this for a fact. I won't ask. Assuming it is true and Israel knows about it, I presume they cracked down on the West Bank for the same reason they haven't completely flattened Lebanon from South to North...they don't want to have to kill everyone in the area to get the area cleaned out...also, the Palestinians outside of Gaza are currently trying to provoke a crack-down.

But I repeat: How would a Lebanon that was unable and UNWILLING to root out HA as a foreign occupying force while quietly hating Israel, be any different from that same Lebanon where people OPENLY hated Israel?

So why should Israel care what the Lebanonese think about them?

CMAR II said...

JoseyWales,

Wow! Could it be? A Lebonese commenting here who actually gets it!

Well said.

Raja said...

CMAR,

If your solution is working, then maybe, I'll try "to get it." But guess what? The outcome of your government's behavior is even worse than the status quo ante!!!

Baroon said...

Omer

just an input to set ur record straight. majority of Iranians even political parties had nothing to do with ahmadinejad speeches .
the political party which he comes from is a very new , unknown party and to be unknown helped him to be elected buz he promised economic changes and better social level .
everyone in iran feels like ..” ok.. if he hate jews let him but why he scream it here and there in every occasion !! ur personal love and hate are not political agenda !”
he is saying what he is saying due to some inside political indifference in iran, he ( his party) want to pressure " khameniye" ( the Islamic leader ).
Long story .

most Iranians wonder why Iran even have Isreal/palestine issue in his agenda in last 30 years!
Iranian were killed by arabs during war , all arabs were happy by saddam while he was killing Iranians , no iranian were killed by isreali ! Isreal even sold weapons to iran during Iran/iraq war ,while most of arabs had hostile policies toward iran at that period .
anyway... this comment is only for u ..it might help u to understand more why "ahmadinejad" say what he say. Iran will never start a war.
from outside , iran seems a very fanatic country because of it government but beside that inside iranians don’t see isreal as their enemy . simply because iran/ isreal never been in war before .
Iran foreign policy is very stupid as much as Isreal and US foreign policy .

Baroon said...

Omer (Isreal)

one more thing. while ahmadinejad keep his personal stupidity out its not like all Iranian nation and political parties are clapping for him. all the other political parties hating him and his party. ( not becuz they are better). They even refused his cabinet 3 times before accepting his ministries .

Lirun said...

barroon

this is interesting.. so what is your view on the future of iran and its ruling party..

cheers
lirun
telaviv

Baroon said...

Lirun

there is a very aggressive battle inside iran between different political forces , actually is was going on in last 8 years since "khatami" (last president) has been elected with 27 million votes ( his election for Iranian was almost similar to ceder movement) his component which was supported by fundamental institutes of Iranian government only collected 3.5 milion .
if other parties fail to shut ahmadinejad and his big mouth up the future going to be very dim .
and as history shows even small minority can take majority to destruction and war .
my only wish is that the remainig time of "ahmadinjead" ( 3 years) and G.W.Bush ( 2.5) in the office finish before we go to WW3 !

the bewilderness said...

We have been listening to these arguments year after year. They are so contagious the W is now claiming that we are not as bad as the terrorists or the Nazis so we still hold the moral high ground. No we don't.

CMAR II said...

Raja,

If your solution is working, then maybe, I'll try "to get it." But guess what? The outcome of your government's behavior is even worse than the status quo ante!!!

Worse for whom? For the Lebanese, certainly. It's hard to see how it is worse for Israel who lives constantly under a dangling sword by HA, MB, IJ, Hamas, and Fatah.

Its hard to see how it is worse for the US who will not send peacekeepers since its last representatives were blown up or abducted & excuted.

Granted things are now worse for the Lebanese. I appreciate your problem in that 40% of your countrymen supported HA and that cracking down on HA would mean a civil war. But that's not Israel's problem. Ultimately, it is the Lebanese's pragmatic tolerance of HA that has caused this.

Sorry to blame the "victim". Welcome to the real world.

Lirun said...

hey barroon

thank you for the insight.. so many regimes to follow.. becomes kind of tough when you're also trying to run a career.. be sporty.. make music.. have a life.. blog about a war lol ;)

seriously though.. we are smashing so many false impressions about eachother.. i have never been so knowledgable about my region as i am today..

i know there are risks of terrible events.. but i really believe in a strong and peaceful middle east..

there is so much good we could all bring the world if we just learned to trust eachother for a little bit..

the israeli work week finishes now.. we dont work fridays.. i have kind of promised myself to have a break from blogging this weekend.. i wonder if i will resist the temptation.. it is so addictive..

in any event.. wishing you all a safe and pleasant weekend..

may we all have peace soon..

lirun
tel-aviv
www.emspeace.blogspot.com
i look forward to better times

Baroon said...

dimitry

it goes for every politician in the world. Do others trust Israel /Pakistan / Rusia / China , with a bomb ? they seem trusty b`cuz they already have it and nobody can do anything about it plus they are not in conflict NOW. if they sit in middle of a conflict no body is trusty .
and to not arguing like kids. Using any kind of military actions ( Bombs) is not in hand of ONE person !!
Iranian parlament will not decide to enter a war anywhere unless iran become under attack.
ahmadi nejad is a puppet ! he cant do much that’s why he have so much spare time for speeches .

Baroon said...

dimitry

so the answer is ..i dont trust any polition with bomb.

lisoosh said...

al-ghad....3 -
There are several interviews between Nasrallah and al-Jazeera where he promises retribution to Lebanese who stand in his way. They sounded pretty threatening to me, and I understand that Siniora operates under constant threat of assassination. (See Memri for clips)
In addition the Guardian (left wing, definitely not pro Israel) had an interview with Hizbollah commanders. Here is the link and a quote:

www.guardian.co.uk/israel/Story/0,,1832930,00.html


"Even when the battle with the Israelis is over, he adds menacingly, Hizbullah will have other battles to fight. "The real battle is after the end of this war. We will have to settle score with the Lebanese politicians. We also have the best security and intelligence apparatus in this country, and we can reach any of those people who are speaking against us now. Let's finish with the Israelis and then we will settle scores later."

Not exactly embracing democracy.
Of course, he could be making it up, but considering the discipline Hezbollah has shown in staying on message I think it is pretty believable.

Baroon said...

dimitry

no ..i think all are same dangrous. isreal and US are not cornerd to use it if they feel they will.
and please dont tell me some day a polition will use nuclear bomb just for plreaser even ahmadi nejad or kim jong !
in time of war no reason will be followed. so many of ur fellow citizens mentioned it here so many times that war justify everything !

Baroon said...

dimitry

i say, when extremist ( iran/isreal/US/ anywhere) from every side gather ( like the case now days ) we will see worst days.
either every side stick to each word of other and escalated situation and start to answer it with more per potion acts OR we change policies toward cooling .
I said what I know about Ahmadinejad , but if u want to believe that he has a real agenda against Israel go ahead believe it .. but from what I know about Iranian history there was never been anti-Semite feeling among people and before revolution Iranian government was the best if not the only ally of Israel in ME. . Ahmadi nejad and Iranian government are much busy to arrest , torture and execute Iranian resistant rather than fighting or erasing isreal !

Baroon said...

Dimitry

Ahmadinejad got elected for 3 reasons only :
1- promised better economy
2- promised fighting corruption
3- promised better social services ( distributing oil money in account of each irani ! )

he didnt say i will take iran HOLLY WAR ! or i will take you to QODS ! or i will start another war and push the enrichment program to throat of Iranians
THEREFORE if iranians feel nothing has changed during his presidency he will not be elected not to mention his ability to plan for erasing isreal.
Ahmadinjaad and his party will not stay in head of iran government cuz even Islamic parties are not supporting his stupidity .

Unknown said...

but from what I know about Iranian history there was never been anti-Semite feeling among people and before revolution Iranian government was the best if not the only ally of Israel in ME.

The Iranian Revolution took place a quarter of a century ago. Whether it was particularly friendly toward Jews before that can be debated, but is irrelevant. The fact remains that it is currently run by a group of virulently racist religious fanatics and has been for quite some time.

Ahmadi nejad and Iranian government are much busy to arrest , torture and execute Iranian resistant rather than fighting or erasing isreal !

Even if this were true (and it isn't, despite regimechangeiran's wishful thinking) it really doesn't take much time or effort to train and equip a bunch of locals to do your fighting for you. That's what proxies are for, after all.

Baroon said...

dimitry

simple ..
he do not think in intrest of iran ! he think of intrest of his political party. his hand is so tight politically inside iran. other parties dont let his party to do anything he even cant do anything through political portocols and manners that why he started to address BUSH and PM of Germany personaly !!! sending out "PERSONAL LETTERS" .

the bomb project IF someday they really be able to build it ( 10 years from now) is not for destorying isreal, the only purpose of it is to ensure thier regime , to ensure US will not attack iran.
if u might be aware since 1978 islamic revelution US tried 2 times to change the regime inside iran

Baroon said...

achillia

the argument started somewhere else.and buttom line was ..Isrealies and outsiders (US/ Europeans) takeing ahmadinjead way 2 seriously as he is and as he is taken inside iran

J. said...

I don't usually leave comments here, but I couldn't help myself. So March 14 (hariri, jumblat, LF!!!!!) are secular. LOL. But "fun-loving" takes the cake. Best characterization of a political movement I've ever come across. Keep up the good work man.

JoseyWales said...

Ghadab 3al fadi, Dratt 3al el-blatt

I don't need 35 lines of drivel commentary to understand this:

If country A crosses country B's border and kills and kidnaps its soldiers, It's an act of war.

Nothing sectarian about that except in you diminutive mind.

Pompous asses always want to make things more complicated than they are.

The Middle East News Addict said...

To "Tears for Lebanon"

It is a shame that despite that beautiful name; you yourself have no tears for Lebanon... whatsoever. If I didn't know you are in the US and had to guess who is sitting in Lebanon and who is not when it came to you and "Chris from Lebanon"... I'd say it is Chris from Lebanon.

The reason is simple. Out of the two of you, the person brainwashed is you due to your cushy life in the US; just like those extreme right wingers who live in the US and support the settlments in Israel. It is always those who sit outside that can fight for principles (as twisted as they may be) such as Hezbollah. People who live on the ground want the same things that you already have that allow you to sacrifice their lives on the altre of your ego just like Nasrallah: Food on the table, education for their kids and a better future. They, like Chris, know that as long as Hezbollah drags them into fighting Israel for Iran and Syria, they will never have those. So stop seating in the US like a military-industrial compact warmongerer and come to Lebanon. Then we will see where your principles are. If you have no intention of doing so... well as the remix for Eminem's song by Christina Aguilera goes: PLEASE SHUT UP, PLEASE SHUT UP.

The Middle East News Addict said...

To Lebanese Liona

If anybody here is blind with hatred it is you. You hate Israel way way way more than you love Lebanon. Perhaps you should start thinking of sacrificing Hezbollah for Lebanon instead of sacrificing Lebanon for Hezbollah.

The Middle East News Addict said...

To "Tears for Lebanon"

I have used the Aguilera remix thing only cause I assume that that is the music you here (or at least the intelligence level of your comments seems to suggest). As for obliging to my request, I understand you cannot oblige to my request of coming to Lebanon. Cowardly warmongerers always send others to do their job. As for my alternate request, "please shut up", well, there is an old say that goes: "better be quiet and be considered stupid; than speak up and prove it"... but in your case it is too late. My tears are with the people of Lebanon; hopefully yours will too some day...