The Lebanese Bloggers

Concepts

2006-12-24T04:08:00.000-05:00

I'm back to griping about an obliviousness of concepts and notions that public figures in our part of the world convey whenever they open their big fat mouths and speak to the public. Why? Because, today, the Daily Star ran an exclusive interview with the VP of the Lebanese Communist Party. Just read the introductory paragraph of the article and weep:

The Lebanese Communist Party (LCP) and the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) signed a memorandum of understanding on December 7, 2006, as a result of a mutual goal of combating sectarianism in Lebanon, according to the LCP's number two. In an exclusive interview with The Daily Star, LCP Vice President, Saadallah Mazraani said that despite maintaining distance from the current anti-government demonstrations, the party feels it necessary to join forces with any secular party in the country.

combating secularism? secular party? We're talking about the FPM right? Funny. While we're at it, let's just go ahead and declare that the PSP is a secular party! Or let's also take that extra step and assert that Hizballah is a religious party that is not sectarian.

What kind of nonesense is this communist spewing? The FPM has as much of a claim to secularism as any of the other major "political parties" in the country, if not less. All you have to do is read that ridiculous Los Angeles Times interview of Michel Aoun (pulished around a week ago) to realize the depth of that party's sectarian agenda. In that interview, Aoun declares that his actions will save all Christendom in the Middle East - never mind Lebanon's Maronite community.

Secularism. Of all people the "Comunists" should know what it means!

Amr Pasha - the Vanguard

2006-12-22T09:21:00.000-05:00

Some would like for us to believe that Amr Pasha does not merely seek to save us Lebanese from ourselves. No, no, no... You see, Amr Pasha represents the vanguard of a new initiative by regional powers to forge an independent path that would save the entire region from American folly, Russian machinations, European temerity and Iranian expansionism. The Christian Science Monitor (12/22, Murphy) wrote yesterday, "this high-level dialogue appears to reflect a new reality: With US prestige crippled by the war, regional actors are bypassing the West to forge partnerships and find solutions on their own." (By the way, I'm tickled whenever I find the word "solutions" and "regional actors" in the same sentence).

Anyways, let's look at this "high level dialogue" between "regional actors" who seek to find "solutions of their own" from a different angle. In fact, let's just look at one of these regional actors - arguably one of the most influential.

The New York Times (12/22, Fattah) wrote yesterday that "across Saudi Arabia" the "once-quiet concern over the chaos in Iraq and Iran's growing regional influence has burst into the open, with many saying a showdown with Iran is inevitable." The Times added that the "apparent split burst into the open last week when Prince Turki al-Faisal...abruptly resigned [as ambassador to the US]." His resignation, writes the newspaper, "is seen by many...as part of a long-running battle over Saudi Arabia's foreign policy," and "privately some Saudi officials and analysts with knowledge of the situation say Prince Turki resigned over deep differences with Prince Bandar bin Sultan," who is "believed to favor the tough American approach of confronting Iran, analysts say, while Prince Turki advocates more diplomatic tactics, including negotiating with Iran."

Even the Washington Post (12/23, Wright) pitches into this discussion surrounding the bickering within the Saud family. The newspaper writes, "the woes within the royal family reflect a tug of war over how to handle foreign policy." Over a year ago, "Prince Bandar bin Sultan ended a legendary 22-year career as the face of Saudi Arabia in the United States. ... As it turns out, however, Bandar has secretly visited Washington almost monthly over the past year - and is at least as pivotal today in influencing U.S. policy as he was in his years as ambassador." The Post also points at factional infighting, unrelated to matters of foreign policy, when it writes, "The rise of Bandar, who is now Saudi Arabia's national security adviser, may reflect the waning influence of the sons of the late King Faisal, who dominated the diplomatic and intelligence services for decades, say sources close to the family."

Here we have an embarrassing portrayal of, arguably, the most powerful "regional actor" struggling to find "solutions" of its own - never mind one working with other regional actors in such a quest. In fact, the notion that there is this "Arab" or "Regional" path, autonomous from the influence of other major powers, is as preposterous as the existence of the Arab League. No... the lines in the Middle Eastern sands have been drawn, and it is clear where each player stands, who they're allied with and who they depend on. Moreover, the rise of Bandar bin Sultan out of the tumult in Riyadh - a development that both newspapers seem to agree on - reconfirms where the Saudis themselves are headed, and I am quite certain, it has nothing to do with "the crippling of US prestige by the war in Iraq."

So, for his sake, let's not make Amr Pasha out to be more than he already is. The man is already the governor of Lebanon's Mutasarrifs! He has enough on his plate.

let's have a massive conference...

2006-12-22T09:02:00.000-05:00

Two days ago, standing next to Syrian foreign minister Walid Moualim, Amr Pasha praised Bashar, saying "I informed [Assad] of the Arab initative. I am extremely happy with the support I received." For his part, Mouallim noted, "The Syrian president expressed his support for Amr [Pasha's] efforts and his initaitve...to bring stability to Lebanon without any foreign intervention." (Naharnet)

I really think that people from our part of the world need to organize a massive, all-inclusive coference. The objective: decide - or rather, standardize - the definitions of "foreign" and "domestic."

Here we have an Egyptian going to a Syrian to ask for support to solve a "Lebanese" problem without, and I quote, "any foreign intervention."

FABULOUS!

I mean... this type of language doesn't even qualify as Orwelian double-speak. It's pure lunacy!

p.s. I know this thought is somewhat belated. However, I was writing an altogether different entry, and citing the Naharnet artilce. I just couldn't help but drop that whole post, and write this one up instead... .

Fortune Telling Lebanon's Future

2006-12-21T08:58:00.000-05:00

Today in Lebanon,

Security

Reuters reported that Lebanese police found and confiscated large quantities of explosives, detonators and timers in houses owned by members of a pro-Syrian group in north Lebanon on Thursday, security sources said. They said police had also moved to encircle some offices of the Syrian Social Nationalist Party (SSNP) in Beirut after making some arrests in the northern Koura province. Alas, the state flexes its miniscule muscles. I Expect protesters tomorrow to chant against an "autocratic" and "dictatorial" regime.

Politics

The Daily Star reported, "A meeting of Parliament's Administration and Justice Committee scheduled for Wednesday was cancelled after a clash between" MPs Neamatallah Abi Nasr and Walid Eido. Apparently, "Abi Nasr had taken issue with Eido's rejection at a separate committee meeting earlier this week of a proposal to create a separate electoral governorate in Mount Lebanon comprising the qadas of Kesrouan-Ftouh and Jbeil." You know what really caught my attention here: the fact that a parliamentary committee is actually meeting! So parliament's doors are locked, but committees are holding meetings? Interesting

Economy

The Daily Star reported, "hundreds of bankers, businessmen and merchants held a meeting at Beirut's Phoenicia Inter-Continental Hotel on Wednesday to condemn the standoff between the government and the opposition over the latter's demand for more influence in Cabinet." If Lebanese were sane, and Lebanese politics not so dysfunctional, this group would constitute the most influential body in the country. Politicians would appeal to them for support, and would coordinate pulic-private initiatives to help boost economic performance. But, of course, Lebanese are not sane, and politics in Lebanon is dysfunctional... which brings me to the real news of the day,

What International Developments Will Steer Lebanon In The Near Future?

Yesterday, in a press conference, President Bush emphasized commitment to the Iraq mission despite the fact that his party lost both houses of Congress, and his recent declaration that the US is not winning the war. The New York Times writes that as he spoke, he "showed no indication that he was inclined to change goals or pull out of Iraq." The newspaper writes that he "used the news conference to confirm his plans, disclosed Tuesday in an interview with The Washington Post, to propose an increase in the permanent size of both the Army and the Marines. He called the global campaign against terrorism 'the calling of our generation,' and he said the military needed to be beefed up to fight it.

On that note, the Wall Street Journal published a very telling article about the how the State Department percieves the region, and what it plans to accomplish in the foreseeable future.

The newspaper writes that Condi Rice is about to embark on “a new diplomatic push in the Middle East to win increased support in Iraq, Lebanon and the Palestinian territories from what she calls ‘mainstream states’ such as Jordan, Egypt and Saudi Arabia.” She “touted what she described as ‘a new opportunity’ to get moderate forces in the region 'to support the development of stable new governments in Iraq and Lebanon...and to make progress toward the emergence of a Palestinian state that is founded on the same principles.’”

As the White House continues to weigh changes to its Iraq strategy, Rice, writes the Journal, “argues that a new alignment is shaping up in the Middle East that offers fresh promise for a new US diplomatic effort.” According to her, the US is “calling upon Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt and key Gulf states to help calm the sectarian passions in Iraq, even going so far as to recognize the current Shiite-led government in Baghdad.” They are also are being asked to “ramp up support for the embattled Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and for Lebanese Prime Minister Fouad Siniora to weaken Iranian-aided radical groups” such as Hezbollah and Hamas. In exchange, the Bush administration is “promising its Arab partners to try to reinvigorate the long-moribund peace talks between Israel and the Palestinians.”

For its part, the Washington Times notes that Rice said the US will not even “wait for Palestinians to agree on a unity government or to hold elections in order to push for a renewed peace effort with Israel and will step up its support for President Mahmoud Abbas.” Rice pointed out that “the chief mission of US diplomacy in the Middle East in the next two years will be to strengthen the ‘alignment’ of moderate forces so they can take on extremists who have enjoyed a surge in popularity in recent years.”

Now if we juxtapose this American position (as articulated by both Bush and Rice) with that which Russia articulated two or three days ago, you see two powers that perceive themselves playing fundamentally clashing roles. Neither power mentions the other in their discussions - nor even institutions or entities designed to foster at least a facade of cooperation (like the Middle East Quartet).

This collision makes me worry that Putin will continue to play the role of "spoiler" to American policy in the Middle East until he gets the kind of recognition from the Americans that he wants. He uses oil and natural gas for leverage in Europe, and he'll use weapons (as well as the nuclear issue) as leverage in the Middle East. Yesterday phone call to PM Seniora, in which Putin "expressed concern" about Lebanon falling into the same sort of chaos that the Palestinians in Gaza are experiencing was not a good omen at all - I perceived it to be more of a warning than anything else.

Yalla... let the roller coaster ride begin. Truth is: whether you believe that Hizballah or March 14 is the "righteous" party, righteousness is irrelevant. In fact, I'll take it one step further and say: Lebanon no longer matters now. The big boys apparently have only just started to get their hands dirty.

The Russian Question

2006-12-19T10:41:00.000-05:00

A few days ago, Lebanese Prime Minister Seniora returned from Moscow saying "I am deeply convinced of support from Russia." A close Seniora aide told Deutsche Presse-Agentur that "Seniora stressed during his talks with the Russain officials that Lebanon's aim was to have 'good and friendly relations based on mutual balanced respect [with Syria] and that any effort in this direction would be useful.'"

Today, Bashar el Assad is in Moscow.... . In explaining the visit, a Kremlin official told Interfax News Agency that the main item on the agenda is "a just and lasting settlement of the crisis situation in the Middle East." He added, "Particular attention will be given to the situation in the Palestinian territories, around Lebanon and in Iraq ."

Furthermore, Agence France Presse quotes Russian newspaper, Kommersant, saying "Moscow wanted to restore something of its Soviet-era influence in the Middle East" and "Putin would seek [Bashar's] support for a long-standing bid to hold a Middle East conference in Moscow." The conference, writes Kommersant, could bring together "opposing sides - Lebanon, Syria and possibly Iran and the Palestinian authority and Israel." (pretty ambitious, I must say)

The AFP adds, "Kommersant noted that al-Assad's visit comes immediately after a visit to Moscow by Lebanon's pro-Western Prime Minister Fuad Siniora, whose government faces a revolt by a Syrian-backed opposition." Moscow, the newspaper writes, aims to enable "an exchange between Beirut and Damascus" by which "Syria would refrain from trying to bring down the Siniora government and Lebanon would stop accusing Syria of involvement in the murder last year of former Lebanese premier Rafiq Hariri, Kommersant said."

With regards to what the Syrians will give the Russians , AFP writes that "in an interview Monday with the official Rossiiskaya Gazeta newspaper, Syrian Vice President Faruq al-Shara talked of an important role for Russia and hinted that Syria would like to buy more Russian weapons systems." More specifically, "Kommersant said Damascus is considering buying MiG-29SMT fighter jets from Russia as well as possibly Amur-1650 submarines, Yak-130 planes and additional Pantsir-C1 air defence systems."

My Take On This Story is that the Russians are very ambitious all of a sudden. I'm left asking myself: exactly what has boosted their sense of relevance (confidence?) all of a sudden? They're talking of throwing the tribunal into the dust bin of history, hosting a peace conference that would, of all things, bring Iran and Israel to the table, and spewing all sorts of audacious initiatives into the wind. Essentially, they're telling the Americans: leave the Middle East to us, and we'll take care of things!

This tangent is, to say the very least, an interesting one to watch. Let's see where it goes.

The Lebanese-Palestinian Link

2006-12-19T09:11:00.000-05:00

And as if any more evidence to prove the linkage between the “two fronts”were needed, we are now greeted by a call from Lebanon’s opposition to hold early parliamentary elections. This initiative comes merely two days after Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas, raised the stakes over at his own neck of the woods by – you guessed it – calling for early legislative elections.

For its part, the venerable Daily Star penned an article titled, “Opposition raises the stakes with call for early legislative elections” - as if this move comes out of the blue ... and, in so doing, (inadvertently?) ascribing to the opposition undue originality and independence.

The newspaper does not even bother to mention developments in Palestine throughout the artilce's body – never mind attempt to link the two together.

Daily Star aside though, coordination between Lebanon's opposition and Hamas at such a level does not surprise me - although it is quite disconcerting. Politicians and parties in Lebanon have always been so much more responsive to foreign actors than to their own constituents (all of them have the illusion of being "bigger" than Lebanon, for some reason). Yalla, I'm waiting to see what will happen if the Palestinians descend into all-out civil war.

The Economist

2006-12-18T12:33:00.000-05:00

...used to be my absolute favorite magazine. In Lebanon, I believe about 200 Economist publications wait patiently for me in one of my storage areas. Back in the day, as I stashed them away, I told myself that maybe 10 years down the road I'd pick them up again and get a glimpse into my past.

Today, however, is a different story. I read the economist at work because I must. The magazine, quite frankly has become too pedantic for my taste. Too much policy recommendations... too little analysis. Frankly, I think it is committing hubris - what sort of contributions, for example, can a magazine called The Economist make to enriching the debate on the Palestine-Israeli conflict or the genocide in Darfur?

Sometimes however, the magazine gets it right - and usually, it does so when it sticks to subjects close to its "core," if you will. Last week's edition contained two quintessential examples of such brilliance: their cover page, and a commentary about Dubai's stock exchange. Here's the cover page:

Of course, some would argue that this image has more to do with international relations or geopolitics than economics - but don't tell the Economist's editors that, because they probably won't let you escape from their lecturing until they convince you otherwise. Whatever the case, I just love this cover, and it deserves recognition!

The other coup de grace pulled by this edition of the Economist pertains to Dubai's stock exchange, and why it has experienced lack-luster performance despite its declared ambitions to grow into a truly global capital market. On that particular issue, the Economist writes,

To win a place in the top club of financial centres, Dubai must attract not just providers of capital but users, too. The bankers need companies that want to sell their shares and bonds in the region; fund managers want local companies to invest in; and private-equity partners need a pipeline of enticing ventures and the prospect of listing their companies after a few years. Dubai has sought to profit from the unprecedented mobility of markets, but without local demand for capital, that same mobility will start to count against it.

The trouble is that few local companies are ready for Dubai's capital markets. The Arab world includes plenty of sophisticated large investors but few modern companies. Long ago, the region's failure to develop joint-stock companies was one reason why it fell behind the West. Even today, financial transparency is weak and accounting is erratic. Most enterprises are family owned and, since they operate in protected markets, have no great need to raise capital, especially if it means exposing themselves to greater scrutiny.

Iranians

2006-12-18T11:37:00.000-05:00

...voted on Saturday. The Iranians voted overwhelmingly for a list of candidates composed of a coalition of reformists and the former president Rafsanjani. They voted to fill the slots of municipal councils (including that of Tehran). They also voted for the country's Council of Experts.

After snooping around a bit, I have to come to the realization that Iran's Council of Experts actually oversees the Velayat e Faqih - i.e. Khamanei. Therefore, if theory actually applies in the real world, who knows? Maybe this new election may yield some positive results after all!

Another very intriguing aspect of this election is what may be construed as a dialogue between the Iranian and American peoples. I know that I may be stretching it a bit with this thought, but I wonder if the Iranians would have voted the same way if the American electorate voted overwhelmingly for the Republicans - as opposed to the Democrats.

Finally, I have to insert a comment related to these developments. Whether or not you are supportive of Iranian foreign policy (I'm definitely dead-set against it), you have to give them credit for holding these elections. Frankly, I consider that country to be one of only three real states in the region - the other two being Turkey and Israel. All the rest are mere mirages.

Saudi Arabia, for example, (the most influential Arab state) is nothing but Saudi Aramco - the largest company in the world, by the way - with a country and two holy sites attached to it. The closest parrallell to Saudi Arabia would be Harvard University - which, of course, is a massive $29 billion endowment with a university attached to it. As for the "Saudis," I am quite certain that if they were to hold elections tomorrow, the country would probably disintegrate.

Anyways, I should shut up now, because I'm betraying my foreign policy preferences. Go Saudis! Kick Ahmadenijad's Ass!!! Wohoow!

I think our salvation lies in the decisions made by the Iranian people. The "Arabs" won't step up to the plate because they don't have the legs for it. The West... well, what can I say? They had better deal with this new development wisely.

cheap wine

2006-12-18T11:11:00.000-05:00

tastes disgusting.

friendly advice for those of you out there who like to enjoy a glass of wine every now and then: never buy a bottle of 2004 Piccini Chianti. If you haven't figured it out yet, it's an Italian wine, and it's got an orange-colored label. I think it cost me like 9 bucks. Disgusting!

Lebanon Next Week - a preview

2006-12-16T10:08:00.000-05:00

Grass-roots activists in Western democracies like to believe that all politics is local. Or, alternatively, they like to say that "change" starts in people's backyards.

In Lebanon, on the other hand, every taxi driver knows that almost every aspect of his life is affected, in one way or another, by decisions made in Riyadh, Tehran, Cairo, Damascus, Paris, Moscow, Washington DC, and increasingly, even Beijing.

Starting from this premise, I will quickly glide through developments across the world today - developments that I believe will have an impact on Lebanese politics in the coming week. Events will be pigeonholed into three categories: International, Regional and the Regional-International nexus.

Allow to start with,

INTERNATIONAL

1. US North Korean Bilateral Negotiations. It appears that the US is quietly conceding to North Korean demands to hold direct talks. Agence France Press says, "US chief negotiator Christopher Hill has said he will meet with his North Korean counterpart in Beijing ahead of the opening of next week's six-way nuclear disarmament talks." Hill, "arriving in Japan for an overnight stop, said he will meet with North Korean envoy Kim Kye-Gwan in Beijing on Sunday."

US To China: I scratch your back, you scratch mine. I'll meet with the N Koreans if you vote a certain way at the UN Security Council. On another level, I wonder how Iran would feel if the "Axis of Evil" all of a sudden loses the venerable Kim Jong Il.

2. The Republic of Georgia, lead by Mickeil Saakashvili will not back down to Russian pressures and will continue on its Western-oriented trajectory. The Washington Times quotes the country's Prime Minister saying, "Georgia will not retreat from democratic reforms or its pro-Western foreign policy despite Russian pressure that could produce a total cutoff of oil and gas shipments this winter."

Hold On: I know what you're saying: what the hell does this have to do with Lebanon? Well the only way that Georgia manages to remain somewhat independent of its giant neighbor to the north is through US support. (sound familiar?) Russia sees this "breakaway" country as a major irritant, and definitely uses it as a bargaining chip in negotiations with other "international giants."

REGIONAL

1. Palestine. Hamas (backed by the Tehran-Damascus axis) and the PLO (backed by the Cairo-Riyadh, Amman axis) are on the verge of civil war. Mahmoud Abbas has just called for elections as a way to avert bloodshed.

The Wash Post says, "factions exchanged gunfire Friday in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, leaving more than 30 people wounded, as leaders from both parties warned of an escalation that could push the territories toward a deeper conflict"

The NY Times writes, "the violence and the heated oratory in recent days have increased talk about [an outright] confrontation, or even the possibility of a Palestinian civil war."

Concerning the elections, BBC World writes, "Mr Abbas' call for elections is a dangerous political move. It comes at a time when inter-factional violence between his own Fatah faction and Hamas has left several Palestinians dead in Gaza and the West Bank. A senior Hamas leader rejected Mr Abbas's call for early elections, saying that would be tantamount to a coup. (sound familiar?)

I wonder: if one faction is able to win over the other in Palestine, what the implications for Lebanon's two coalitions will be. Will the pressure on Lebanon increase? You betcha! Whoever loses is gonna want to compensate somewhere else, right?

2. Iraq. The Iraqis are apparently holding a "National Reconciliation Council." I wonder how effective such a conference will be in quelling the violence. However, at least it seems to be attracting some attention. Al Jazeera writes, "A national reconciliation conference designed to halt mounting sectarian violence in Iraq has opened in Baghdad. Hundreds of delegates from the country's divided political factions gathered at a conference centre inside Baghdad's Green Zone on Saturday in a bid to draw up a peace process."

Draw up a peace process? Is there a war? Anyways, sarcasm aside... if Sunnis and Shi'is are actually able to stop killing each other over there - or at least minimize the killing - we'll all be better off. Cross your fingers.

3. Iran. The Iranians are voting for municipal representatives, and for members of the "Assembly of Experts." The NY Times writes, "Iranians went to the polls Friday in large numbers, which analysts said could be good news for reformers and could work against the hard-line president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad." The newspaper goes on to say, "in Tehran, many voters said they were casting ballots for reformers, not out of devotion, but because they wanted more moderate figures to confront Mr. Ahmadinejad."

The Associated Press notes that "Polling hours in Tehran were extended for three hours to accommodate long lines. The head of the electoral organization, Deputy Interior Minister Mojtaba Samareh Hashemi, told state TV that many polling stations had asked for more ballots."

The Financial Times writes, "The turn-out was far higher than the 11 percent in Tehran's last municipal election, in 2003, when the reformists' defeat followed a period of internal bickering - and led to their setbacks in 2004 parliamentary elections and the 2005 presidential poll."

Please, Please: Iranians, vote for sane people this time! I beg you! On second thought, vote for whoever you wish. Khamenei really matters in your country. Besides, Hizballah gets its "guidance" straight from him.

REGIONAL-INTERNATIONAL NEXUS

1. Turkey-EU negotiations. The Financial Times reports, "Europe's leaders will agree in Brussels on Friday to endorse the partial suspension of Turkey's membership talks until Ankara opens its ports to ships from Cyprus, an EU member since 2004." The summit "is expected to set tough new entry rules for all future EU members in an attempt to allay public concerns that the club is growing too quickly." However, "Tony Blair will on Friday fly to Ankara to reassure Turkey that its path to the European Union remains open."

Now that Turkey is being nudged to play an increasingly active role in the Middle East by, among others, the Saudis as well as the Europeans (witness Erdogan's recent trip to Tehran and Damascus), I am sure these negotiations will consider this new role. The question being asked: How will Turkey help the EU project its influence in the region? Maybe Erdogan's shuttle diplomacy is meant to answer that question.

2. Blair's "Legacy." After Blair leaves Turkey he'll visit Egypt. Agence France Press writes, "the British Prime Minister Tony Blair is expected in Egypt to hold talks with President Hosni Mubarak," according to "presidential sources." The two "are expected to hold talks on regional developments during a lunch meeting, the sources said, without giving a precise time. AFP writes, "state-owned Akhbar Al-Yom newspaper, citing an unnamed spokesman from the premier's office, said the two leaders would seek ways to revive the Middle East peace process and discuss developments in Iraq, Lebanon, Iran and Sudan's troubled region of Darfur."

In light of the situation in the Palestinian territories, I find this meeting to be intriguing. How it will impact Lebanon? Well... I'm not sure. But it definitely has something to do with the PLO-Hamas "near" civil-war.

3. Saudi-American relations. It seems that the Saudis are bickering among themselves. They're trying to decide who gets to occupy the second most important seat in the kingdom: the family's ambassadorship to the US. Israeli backers in the US are jumping all over this one. The Wall Street Journal quotes the Washington Institute for Near East Policy's Simon Henderson saying, this incident "provides yet another reminder that one of America's most important relationships is laced with surprise and mystery."

Of course, Saudi-American cooperation in the region, including Lebanon, transcends the matter of who is actually the Saudi ambassador in the US. However, I wouldn't discount this affair as irrelevant. I am confident that the ambassador plays an important day-to-day role in DC - at least as important a role as Amr Pasha is playing at this moment in Lebanon. I would keep an eye on this development.

CONCLUSION:

So what am I trying to say here? Where is Lebanon going next week? The answer to the first question is that it seems the two "grand regional-international alliances" are still on a collision course - their posture remains one of confrontation, which brings me to my answer to the second question. The implication for Lebanon is that the country is going no where. The stalemate will continue. Seniora's visit to Moscow may lead to something positive, but I doubt it. None of the players in the "bigger game" appears to dominate the other, and that stalemate will more than likely reflect itself on the ground in Lebanon.

I feel that the violence in Gaza, however, is an attempt on the part of one group of powers to break the deadlock. We'll have to wait and see what happens there before we assess the repercussions on Lebanon. Moreover, let's wait and see what comes of this new initiative to take the Iranian nuclear issue to the Security Council . Maybe something will give on that front as well.

Otherwise... well, I'm sure that taxi driver is giving all his riders some free advice: get out while you can!

Amr Pasha

2006-12-15T09:38:00.000-05:00

Amr Mousa, the knight in shining armor, rides to our rescue – to save us from ourselves. And in doing so, the cause self-governance and democracy in Lebanon suffers yet another setback, as one more layer that separates Lebanese from politics emerges.

During a short interval of time, beginning with the expulsion of the Syrians and ending with Moussa’s arrival, the only layer that separated Lebanese from true political participation (as opposed to passively watching, commenting and protesting when ordered to) was that sorry excuse of a political elite, which have helped nudge us ever closer to outright civil war.

This proximity to politics was tantalizing. For 20 years we were kept from getting this close – our "sisterly" neighbor made sure of that. Today, Moussa comes to Lebanon and brings back that dreaded second layer of separation and things are starting to feel disgustingly familiar.

Going back to Moussa's original purpose for riding into Lebanon though, I'll add that I abhor the notion that a people needs saving from itself. How condescending! Are these people animals? Why should they be saved from themselves?

But then, I look at Iraq, Lebanon's bloody history, Yugoslavia, Rwanda, and tens of other places, and one quote comes to mind:

The epitaph written by God on humanity's gravestone will be: “I thought it was a good idea at the time.”

While I'm at it, I'll put in another quote that comes to mind:

Somewhere on this globe, every ten seconds, there is a woman giving birth to a child. She must be found and stopped.

At this particularly depressing juncture in Lebanon’s history, I have two pieces of advice for Lebanese:

Let's keep Amr Moussa and divide Lebanon into Mutsarrifs. Let him govern our lands with the help of a Mejlis composed of a certain number of Lebanese from various sects. In fact, let’s take this idea all the way; and, from this point forward, refer to Amr Moussa as Amr Pasha.
Or, let us just get things over with and split the country apart. Lebanese are (or rather, insist on believing that they are) so different from one another, they might as well be from separate planets. Let each Lebanese return to his or her village of origin, and stay there – for all Lebanese are villagers at heart, if not actual villagers. This way we can eliminate all pretense of civility or cosmopolitanism, and just be our pathetic selves. Then we can engage in something I am really looking forward to: perpetual warfare. (Whoever says Hobbes wasn’t an astute observer of humanity is an idiot!)

Who am I kidding? A region populated by villagers and bedouin can never be governed democratically. We need the Turks to come back, or the Persians – whichever one…. So long as they govern with an Iron fist, and delegate Amr Pasha to manage the day-to-day affairs in Lebanon, we’ll be our happy, clueless, irrelevant selves.

stop with the suffocation.

2006-12-13T10:58:00.000-05:00

Let me put it out there: I agree with the assertion that the “historical development of [what some call] Lebanon’s ‘Shia ideology’ and power is understandable.” I also agree that “Iran was the [Shi'a community's] natural choice” when it came to accepting a foreign patron that would help them face the challenges they had to deal with as a community. Moreover, like all people raised never to bite the hand that feeds them, the Shi'a community refuses to turn their backs (or, at least, hesitate to turn their backs) on their patron.

However, this reality creates what could amount to an existential problem for Lebanon. I see a fundamental clash between what, over the past 20 years has developed into this “Shi'a ideology” and the loose amalgam of usually contradictory ideas and ideals that characterize what can be said to be a “Lebanese ideology.” Specifically, Hizballah’s aggressive and chauvinist disposition, its explicitly religious cultural and political nature, its apparent need for enemies towards which it may direct all of its energies, and its absolute obsession with Israel all combine to turn the party into a significant destabilizing entity within the country as a whole.

Being a Lebanese who exists outside of Hizballah's yoke, I usually find myself saying, “as long as they remain in their quarters, let them do and believe as they wish.” However, if they seek to impose their ideas or realities (such as war) on me, then I will exercise my own right as a Lebanese to do whatever it is that I can to block and thwart them.

Come to think of it, the blessing inherent in the Syrian occupation after Israel’s withdrawal was that all Lebanese who were not Hizballah followers, somewhat naively believed that the party remained actively engaged in the South because Syria – a foreign, occupying power – wanted to use the party to secure its own goals, ostensibly, liberating the Golan Heights. Today though, the Syrian buffer between Hizballah and the rest of the Lebanese population no longer exists, and all of us are looking right at a local party and its base - both of which apparently seek nothing but to impose what they perceive as their own ideal realities on the rest of us (realities that even supporters of Aoun would fight vehemently against had they not been so blinded by their selective hatred of the political establishment and their desire for power).

In conclusion, I will say that the supporters of Hizballah are definitely not blind, uncritical followers. Hizballah has done for Lebanon’s Shi’a community what no other political entity could. And, indeed, if for nothing but a sense of gratitude, the beneficiaries of Hizballah and Iranian generosity should stand by their party. However, at this point in history, I see no reason why the Hizb does not decommission and commit more of an effort into integrating into the Lebanese political system. The time for war is over; Lebanese are tired. Now that the Syrians have left the country, Lebanese should be given a chance to prosper – as opposed to being suffocated by a local entity that is fearful of change.

Nothing New

2006-12-13T07:19:00.000-05:00

So why is Amr Moussa holding a press conference in the Grand Serail today (right now actually) when he said outright that he will not disclose any specific information or points on the outcome of the negotiations? All he is saying is that there is progress (takaddoum). That's it!

Where does this leave us? More speculation, more rumors here and there...

Unfortunately, he might be leaving back to Cairo; so I don't know if we moved any closer to resolving this political impasse.

"Nobody knows how many rebellions, besides political rebellions, ferment in the masses of life which people earth."

Tripoli And The One Dimensions

2006-12-12T07:21:00.000-05:00

Nothing new so far. Arab League Secretary General Amr Moussa has just arrived to Beirut. We'll know what transpires from the Arab League's intervention shortly.

But I wanted to share with you something that struck me yesterday. Sleiman Franjieh from Omar Karami's home in Tripoli said that the Sunnis in Lebanon (particularly Tripolitans) are de facto aligning themselves with Israel, because some Arab leaders and Lebanese political figures have convinced the Sunnis that the "struggle" is no longer against Israel and are trying to persuade the Sunnis to believe that the Shiites are the enemy.

Why is Franjieh going there? Why does he have to remind the Tripolitans (me included) time and time again that Tripoli is a bastion of Arabism and home of Abdel Nasser? We know that very well. And the majority in Tripoli who have Abdel Nasser's picture hung on their walls are the same ones who choose not to align themselves with the Opposition. Does that mean that suddenly those Arabists are allies of Israel? If people disagree with Hizbullah's ways, does that mean that suddenly now Tripolitans have changed their enemy from Israel to the Shiites?

No, Franjieh! These black-white statements are rotten, from the olden ages. I'm tired of such compartmentalization of issues, of the "de factos". Why are we doomed to be one-dimensional? Why can't we have multiple causes, multiple struggles, multiple friends and foes?

Why is it that if I like Syria, I'm de fact a pro-Syrian? I'm not! But I like Syria and the Syrian people and that has nothing to do with the Syrian regime. And why is that if I'm against the Syrian tutelage in Lebanon, then I'm de facto someone who hates Syria?

Why is it that if I like America, I'm branded an "agent" and a de facto Zionist? I disagree with the current U.S. foreign policy, but that does not mean I need to chant: Death to America!

Why is it that if I am of the position that Hizbullah needs to integrate itself into the Army (which is a strengthening factor for Lebanon), I become a de facto Zionist (again), an agent, a traitor, and anti-Shiite? I believe that our state institutions can be strengthened through this integration and would be a move that would make Hizbullah popular across the country, as opposed to what Hizbullah is doing right now.

Why is it that if I am against the overthrowing of the current government, I'm a de facto Sunni? My position has nothing to do with my sect; it has to do with a set of principles I stand by.

So it's time to toss these de factos in the trash bin. Franjieh, you're old and rotten. Can we have new leadership in our country? A leadership that is more in tune with our multi-dimensional world, a world so diametrically different than Franjieh's world?

Addendum: By the way, why is the Tripolitan cleric Yakan (who held the Friday prayers in Riad Solh last Friday) is saying that any move to occupy by force the Grand Serail is a red line and will lead to a massacre? Why? Perhaps it is on the Opposition's agenda and Yakan is just revealing in public that he's against this move.

"Nobody knows how many rebellions, besides political rebellions, ferment in the masses of life which people earth."

Today's speeches

2006-12-10T09:55:00.000-05:00

Amal Representative speech - I didn't watch it. Irrelevant.

Hizballah Representative - split according to the following proportions:

50% of his speech was: you are the larger, more righteous, more courageous crowd.
10% of his speech was: this is not a sectarian movement
5% of his speech was: this government has failed and is not representative
35% of his speech was: we want Lebanon back under the Iranian/Syrian yoke - of course, he said so indirectly. He bashed American and Israel.

my comment: yepeee!

Aoun:

50% of his speech was: this government and political elite has failed
50% of his speech was: I will do a better job.

my comment: all right!

So from what I'm witnessing, I can surmise that Hizballah has the following plan: It seeks to take the country back to a state of active war with Israel - because that's all that party can demand - that's all it can actually do. And then, instead of having Hariri and Co. govern the internal affairs of the Lebanon, Hizballah will delegate that task (which, of course, is beneath them) to Aoun and Co.

Oh... I am sooooo looking forward to this new era in Lebanon's History. FABULOUS!

I am even tempted to encourage this new governing formula for Lebanon - a formula where Hizballah is effectively sovereign and Aoun, governor. Where one asks his crowd to scream death to America, and the other quotes the American constitution. Where one says we want a country that is not beholden to international resolutions, and the other says that he supports all international resolutions.

akh, akh, akh... la wayn? la wayn rayha ya libnen?

Santa Clause In Lebanon This Year

2006-12-09T16:41:00.000-05:00

Thanks, CK

Lebanon's Ahab

2006-12-08T09:49:00.000-05:00

Yesterday, I witnessed a sad and somewhat pathetic spectacle… a sight that reminded me of a documentary concerning Hizballah, in which a cleric who accompanied Nasrallah to Qom said something akin to the following: “Nasrallah stood out from the very beginning – he was brilliant. However, his brilliance revolved exclusively around the matter of Israel. In all other matters, even those concerning religion and theology, he was relatively mediocre.”

Yesterday, I watched a man that I once had a modicum of respect for, make a fool of himself. On that screen, he might as well have been naked - because all who wanted to could see through the garbs of confidence and impregnability covering his body.

For all his arrogant slogans about eliminating corrupt government; for all his mocking of political rivals; for all the talk from his supporters about ‘clean hands;’ for all of that nonesense, Nasrallah, yesterday revealed to his audience that he, the leader of the holy muqawama, is as full of hot air as the rest of his counterparts in Lebanon's political elite are – yet more dangerous because of his agenda.

Yesterday, Nasrallah articulated to the Lebanese people what he wanted. He asked all Lebanese, “across sectarian lines,” for support. Why? Because, 1) He wants war against Israel 2) And he wants a “fair, representative and clean national-unity government” with at least a third of the ministers to wage his war against Israel. Period. Everything else he said (and I mean everything), somehow found their way back to those two points.

And for all this religious cleric's talk about the nonsectarian nature of his movement, his biggest crowd pleasers (and he knew they would be, as he recorded his speech) were phrases like “you are a people that rises above pain,” and “you are a people that will not be intimidated,” and “you are a people who survived the heaviest onslaught of bombardment in recent memory.” Politically, he added, “we” seek “fair representation,” and “we” deserve a “national unity government,” etc, etc….

A reasonable question to ask at this juncture is: under what premise does Nasrallah base his argument that this government cannot be characterized as “fair?” Is his premise constitutional? Is it legal? Is it religious? Or is it based on foreign policy decisions? I want to know… What is his premise?

For as far as I can tell, Parliament’s make-up – and I’m talking about a parliament that Hizballah is very much a part of – dictates that this government (even as it exists today) is constitutionally “fair” and representative.

Yet, all this talk is merely marginal. What really surprised me yesterday, was what seemed to be Nasrallah’s rhetorical, but more importantly, mental limitations. The man appeared almost unable to formulate any arguments outside of the paradigm of war with Israel. Even when he sought to escape from it, he quickly ran back into his comfort zone, and spouted out the same pedestrian language with the expected accompanying haughty, arrogant tone. In short, his performance yesterday portrayed a man who cannot but infuse the struggle against Israel into every subject delved into, be it regarding issues of representation, or such mundane matters as social welfare, health-care and even street-cleaning.

In light of this realization, I asked myself: is this one-dimensional human being actually selling himself as a leader? This man who, like Ahab, captain of the Pequod, seems utterly overwhelmed by his irrational and uncontrollable drive to find and kill the ever-elusive Moby Dick – whatever the cost to himself and his companions. A man who, outside of his single obsession, appears as one who stumbles over and over again as he struggles to walk inside of a pitch-dark room!

Today, finally, one certainty has emerged: I can and will, with a clear conscience, rebuke all of Nasrallah’s supporters – especially those who argue that he has earned their support because of their unfounded assumption that he is somehow a more capable leader/governor/politician than his counterparts.

On that note, allow me to present at least some good news: Nasrallah may be aware of his limitations, and seeks merely to help bring about an environment in which he may do what he loves most. Simply put, the man seeks calm waters that would permit him to return to and focus on his hunt! It is for this particular reason that I will also, and again with clear conscience, rebuke those who argue that they support Nasrallah because they believe he has “clean hands.”

For if those among the political elite who are said to have “dirty hands” were to allow Nasrallah to feel comfortable enough to return to his obsession, the Seyyid would give them free reign to pillage and plunder as much as they saw fit. He did it before, and he'll do it again.

No, Lebanon… Nasrallah is not the answer. No, Hizballah... Nasrallah is not even your answer either. The Southern front is no more. The only way you can open it back up is by destroying the country. Therefore, for your sake, and the sake of the country, I implore that you seek new leadership.

Sleeping On Fear, Waking Up To Hope

2006-12-08T08:10:00.000-05:00

I slept on Nasrallah's speech, slept on the wrong side of the bed (if that should help in describing my state of sleep this past night), and woke up to listen to PM Seniora's response to Nasrallah's serious allegations.

I slept on fear and woke up on hope, slept on negativity and woke up on an impeccable positive attitude on the part of Seniora.

PM Seniora in a calm way took Nasrallah's speech and broke it down in order to respond to it and explain his position and the position of his government.

The highlights:

Nasrallah has delegated himself as the ruler of the country; he has decided ahead of time who will be the majority if Parliamentary elections take place, he has decided the characteristics of the Cabinet that he would oversee and also, who would head the Cabinet, "A Sunni Prime Minister who is clean, true, nationalistic, etc..."

Seniora asks, "Who has given you the authority to say someone is clean or not clean, his money is clean or not clean? This decision rests with the Creator and not with you. Is you party God?"

But to go back to Nasrallah's voyeuristic attitude about the outcome of the majority in the country and who would lead the country, Seniora said that this is not democratic behavior, but an attitude that leads us to fear that Nasrallah is planning a coup.

Seniora was pained that Nasrallah said those in the Opposition are those who support the Resistance. Seniora said, "What about us? You took us off the list in a second? We never supported the Resistance?!!"

Then Seniora discussed the Shebaa Farms issue. Nasrallah yesterday said that Seniora and his government are traitors for trying to get back Al-Ghajar and the Shebaa Farms diplomatically. I never knew, and these are my thoughts, that diplomacy means branding someone as a traitor. Why can't we use multiple venues to liberate our country? Why does it have to be through one way, the use of arms?

Seniora questioned whether some folks want to truely liberate the Shebaa Farms. He said that during the hiwar sessions, the government saw that it wise to have Shebaa to be transferred to the UN's purview, not under Israeli rule, until the Syrians decide to provide the UN with documents showing that the Farms are Lebanese. Despite such a practical approach, Seniora revealed that there was someone who visited him in the Serail and who wanted the Farms to stay under Israeli rule: it's the Iranian Foreign Minister!

Then Seniora asked how Nasrallah says that the Opposition doesn't get foreign support when Hizbullah gets foreign financial support in the millions and unfortunately not through legal channels, such as through the Lebanese Central Bank. Seniora said, "Yes many Arab countries have sent us financial support, but by depositing that money in the Central Bank to benefit all of Lebanon." He welcomed Iranian financial contributions for all Lebanese to benefit from and through a transparent mechanism, by depositing the money in the Central Bank.

I can't summarize an one-hour long speech, but these are some of the highlights. I'm sure other blogs and news sites will shed light on other points Seniora made in his speech. But in general, I am comforted that at least someone in this craziness is not accusing, hating, insulting.

Even when some in the audience booed at mentioning some of what Nasrallah said yesterday, Seniora stopped them and said that this is not a civilized attitude.

I think about it: Even Shar'a, the Syrian Vice President, said that if they had a say in Lebanese political affairs, they would get everything settled in the country from the first day of protests. What does that mean? It means that in their regime language, perhaps he would order tanks to drive over the protesters. This is the language of the neighboring Arab regimes, but not the language of our system in Lebanon.

Who is besieging who? The Serail is besieged and Seniora still says positive things and commends the protesters for demonstrating peacefully because he believes in the freedom of speech and thought.

It is Nasrallah who cannot stand this right, this CONSTITUTIONAL right. I am a Lebanese; the last thing I want to be accused of is that I'm not a Lebanese because I have my OWN mind. I am a FREE Lebanese regardless of who I talk to, of who I associate with, of what I think. In Lebanon, it's not my way or the highway; it's never like that and will never be.

One more thing: On Kalam Innas yesterday, the talk show ended in a verbal fight between MP Ibrahim Kanaan of FPM and MP Mosbah Ahdab of March 14. The most striking insult is when Kanaan accused Ahdab of being a traitor "3ameel" (a disgusting insult)! And also said that he is "cleaner than him" (ana ashraf minnak!) And this is just because Ahdab was furious how Aoun is using terms such as "saramee" (a derogatory term for shoes) and "3uhr" (or prostitution) to characterize the March 14 coalition. Kanaan even said, "il 3uhr 3indak!" (you're the one characterized by prostitution!)

Anyways, today in Riad Solh the Friday prayers are being held by March 8, led by Sunni cleric Fat'hi Yakan (the same person who approached the government to broker a solution). I ask why? I'm a Muslim, but I don't see the reason for holding the Friday prayers in this square. Why can't they hold it in the mosque? Why turn the political podium into a place where sheikhs conduct their Friday sermons? Why turn it into a religious podium? Why mix the two together? There is no reason to do that?

I just listened to a part of the sermon, "How can we support the international tribunal, when one of those who were delegated by Kofi Annan to study the idea of the mixed tribunal is a Jewish woman who graduated from the University of Tel Aviv with a PhD?".....

Alright, time to leave!

Addendum: I remembered something: Seniora explained, in a unique explanation I haven't heard before, the reason why the Constitution stipulates that a Cabinet is dissolved when 1/3 +1 of the Cabinet members resign. Why not for instance when 20% of the Ministers resign? It's because the aim is not for one sect to hijack the decision-making process, to make or break a Cabinet. The ultimate reason for such a stipulation is so sects can work together to make a difference, if they wish so to dissolve a Cabinet or to uphold it.

Another point I wanted to make is that by virtue of a Sayyid, Sayyid Nasrallah a religious figure, taking up the role of a political/military commander, we are bound to see today Muftis of all regions take to the podiums to make speeches and to be provided with media coverage.

It's turning religious more than ever!

"Nobody knows how many rebellions, besides political rebellions, ferment in the masses of life which people earth."

Nasrallah still wants to play cowboys & indians...

2006-12-07T14:03:00.000-05:00

... 'cuz apparently, that's all he can do!

- or at least that's what I've surmised from his latest speech.

What can I say? I'm not surprised.

the real threat...

2006-12-07T09:11:00.000-05:00

...is not that these protests will overthrow the Lebanese government. For however well organized, however many, however frequently staged, no protest will bring down a government in Lebanon that is supported by the majority of Parliament. Despite all the enthusiasm evinced by the protestors who are down on the streets, Hizballah will never be able to storm the Serrail and form its own cabinet. Hizballah will never be able walk into parliament and call for new elections. Hizballah will never be able to seek and retain the Army's loyalty to achieve its own objectives.

Consequently, if bringing down the government is impossible, why is the ruling coalition so overcome with fear? What is Hizballah really doing? Why is the entire country purportedly on the edge of a calamity?

In trying to answer those questions, I’ll articulate what I believe to be Hizballah’s immediate objectives and then look at its actions from a more strategic vantagepoint. The party, it seems, seeks to achieve three short-term objectives, 1) as they've openly declared, they seek to “paralyze” the government and the country (to , among other things display what the repercussions of a “Shi'a walk-out” really means), 2) regionally, they apparently seek to shake the Arab dictators a little - the reason ostensibly being, these governments will prod the ruling coalition to make concessions, 3) and most dangerously, they seek to expose themselves to Lebanese in a way that they know would inflame passions.

This taunting... this provocation, Hizballah calculates, will inspire fear among its political rivals ... fear that they will lose control of their “streets” and ultimately set off a chain reaction of events that would destroy everything in the country that they have a stake in. Recent news coming from the country prove that this plan is working. The Army Commander's recent words concerning the strains being felt by the institution he leads only serves as further evidence that supports this contention.

On a more strategic level though, we can see that for the past twenty years Hizballah invested itself almost exclusively in fighting the Israelis – politically, ideologically, culturally and economically. Today, however, if local, regional and international political developments maintain the trajectory they have taken for over a year or so now, the party will, to put it rather crudely, simply lose all their “money.” Therefore, faced with this prospect of total loss or, alternatively, defeat, it now puts its counterparts on the other side of the “aisle” in a similar situation.

One of the least talked about strategies (one that was brought to my attention by Dr. Theodore Hanf) that was used to bring an end to the Lebanese civil war was a systematic effort to gradually give the warlords an economic stake in peace. The strategy could be seen as a marked success – with a few exceptions. One of these exceptions was the price average Lebanese paid as a result of unchecked corruption and perpetual economic underperformance. However some could make the case that those two depressing features of post-war Lebanon were prices worth paying for peace. Moreover, one could also make the case, that as peace became more entrenched and secure, the corruption would gradually recede to acceptable levels as a result of pressure from a public that felt more secure.

The more dangerous flaw of the strategy though, one that for numerous reasons could not have been averted, was the exclusion of certain parties from the system. Hizballah is one of them. The party, until recently, was not only independent of the Lebanese state politically, but it also existed and continues to exist outside of the Lebanese state militarily and economically the organization itself is quite understandably isolated from the rest of the country. Michel Aoun is another actor in the Lebanese sphere with no stake in the status quo. And lastly, Emile Lahoud, who dedicated his presidency to implementing Bashar’s plan of destroying this system, is a third.

It is no coincidence that these three players constitute the principal actors in the opposition movement today. The question that begs for an answer though, is: will the system (i.e. Lebanon’s political-economic establishment; the glue that has helped keep Lebanon together for this long) be able to withstand the onslaught? I doubt it. By maintaining its current campaign, Hizballah gradually but surely erodes the investment that yielded post-war Lebanon. If Hizballah succeeds in destroying it, then it would quite simply eliminate its political opponents without having to attack them directly. It would successfuly execute a coup d'etat without having to actually execute a coup d'etat.

In response to this threat, will the current stakeholders, the ruling majority, be able to extend the political and economic largesse they have accumulated over the years to their adversaries in time to save Lebanon? If they do, what will the implications for the country be? Politically, the electoral law will definitely play a role – at least with regards to the Maronite political elite. Other than the electoral law though, and specifically with regards to Hizballah, I predict that the ruling coalition will need to allow the party to maintain at least some of its own long-term “investments.” The ruling majority will have to do so because they are now faced with the threat of losing everything themselves. Will this mean a return to an active state of war with Israel? If not, what else of value would induce Hizballah to relent?

I don’t have an answer to most of those questions. However, we’ll either find out in the coming days, or say adieu to our beloved Lebanon.

Why Another Mass Rally?

2006-12-07T08:11:00.000-05:00

No political settlement yet, but a new development: the Opposition has called for another demonstration in Riad Solh Square starting Sunday with the aim of toppling the government.

Why do that, when there is a genuine search among all parties to reach a compromise and a solution to this political deadlock?

At any rate, the government has three demands it will not compromise: 1) a national unity government, yes, but not that which gives the opposition 1/3+ of the Cabinet seats, 2) early Presidential elections, and 3) the international tribunal; there is a verbal agreement to the tribunal but the government has not seen this agreement operationalized in Cabinet meetings.

In my assessment, the Higher Maronite Council's statement yesterday, seems to provide a roadmap out of the impasse right now.

Aoun has sent a delegate to Bkirki in support of this roadmap. But if this is the case, then why is Aoun still calling on his supporters to head en masse to Beirut for a renewed mass rally on Sunday? Is it just a verbal agreement?

"Nobody knows how many rebellions, besides political rebellions, ferment in the masses of life which people earth."

The Damage Has Been Done!

2006-12-05T23:23:00.000-05:00

It doesn't matter anymore if the opposition decides tomorrow to ask its protesters to return home and to seek a political solution (like the one that is floating right now which might just end the political impasse, a suggestion by PM Seniora to accept a 19-9-2 Cabinet line-up), the damage has been done!

Pierre Ashkar, the head of the Federation of Tourism Syndicates, mourned Tourism in Lebanon and claimed that it died in 2006 as a "martyr". Hotel reservations around the country have went from 90%, to 50% when Hizbullah threatened to take to the streets, and now 0%.

Here comes the more painful piece of news: It is projected that in the next two months, 15,000 employees in the tourism industry will be laid off.

15,000 livelihoods, 15,000 families, 15,000 dreams...imagine the ripple effects of such mass layoffs on the country. Where will all the 15,000 Lebanese men and women go? What will be their alternative? And this is only in the tourism industry, then how about in the retail industry?

"Nobody knows how many rebellions, besides political rebellions, ferment in the masses of life which people earth."

A Crystallized Justificationn

2006-12-05T08:29:00.000-05:00

Update: Protesters in Mahmoud's funeral are calling for PM Seniora's death!
***************************************************************************

Today for the first time I got a crystallized justification of why PM Seniora does not want to step down.

The Presidency is with March 8 as well as the Parliament leadership. March 8 are now demanding 1/3 of the Cabinet seats, which will give March 8 control over the three branches of the government. Having 1/3 of the Cabinet seats, March 8 can veto holding a certain Cabinet meeting, can stall tabled draft laws, and have the power to topple the Cabinet.

My question is then: where do you see a balance of power between the three branches of government? And where do you see partnership in running the country?

A solution floating in the political sphere right now is calling for the formation of a Cabinet of Technocrats to manage the affairs of the state before it's time for new Presidential elections. I don't know if March 8 will agree to this solution.

There is this sick feeling I have when I wake up everyday. I don't know where the country is heading. Yesterday's news was disturbing; more clashes, this time protestors entered into a street not under the purview of the Army and ISF who were positioned in an adjacent street, and started breaking glass and destroying cars. Two were wounded. And then protestors blocked the road to the airport which was then re-opened and cleared after the Army's intervention.

General Suleiman is calling on the political forces to solve their problems quickly because the sectarian overtones characterizing the street clashes will compromise the Army's neutrality.

This is all happening while politicians are calling for calm, then how about if they stop doing that?

At any rate, this goes to show that our sectarian system has failed miserably.

On another point, a close source living in Saudi let me know that when March 8 started threatening to go down on the streets, his U.S. corporation received more than 800 resumes from young Lebanese applicants.

I know very well that many are not down on the streets, but in their homes ready to leave the country. My brother in law whose business suffered after the war this summer, is planning to head to Africa. He has charged political views, but he at the end of the day has a family and sees no future in Lebanon, just flashbacks of a civil war he lived through which he refuses to have his son witness if worse comes to worse.

"Nobody knows how many rebellions, besides political rebellions, ferment in the masses of life which people earth."

sigh

2006-12-04T22:07:00.000-05:00

today it got ugly.

al Manar, Hizballah's mouthpiece, referred to the mobsters who killed an Amal supporter as members of the Future Movement's "militia." Future Television, the (you guessed it) mouth-piece, spent at least five minutes of its news broadcast today lambasting al Manar for lying, for inflaming sectarian tensions and committing all other sorts of heinous crimes.

so, remind me: what was the title of one of my previous posts? "to hell in an hand-basket"? yeah... i think that was it.

anyways, i have to say that the way the ruling coalition has handled this Hizballah situation is pathetic. Enough with the speeches. Enough with the visiting delegations. Enough with the Egyptian ambassador and Jordanian minister.

If the people in Downtown Beirut want to flex "Shi'a power," then all the power to them. God strengthen the Shi'a all over the world and in particular Lebanon's Shi'a. However, to bring the entire damn country to a stand-still just because several thousand people are protesting peacefully within a secured area that is not even the size of a football field is - to put it mildly - beyond me.

If the Future Movement has any control of its "street," then it should get a hold of its hoodlums and allow the Shi'a convoys to pass Sunni neighborhoods however provocative the chants, slogans or flags displayed by them may be. As for the rest of the country, it should go back to business as usual. If employees insist on protesting, they should be fired and replacements sought - God knows, the country has enough unemployed people sitting around, waiting for something to do. If business-owners choose to shut down in support of the protests, then all the better for their competition.

Of all the initiatives and tactics that the government has used to shore up its legitimacy, the one that has proved most effective was one that (ironically?) the government had no role in planning - the Beirut Marathon. The event went through according to plans, even though it was launched in Downtown Beirut only a few blocks away from the protesters. If Nasrallah wants to prove that he can bring the entire country to a standstill by flexing his well-organized "Shi'a muscle" then the way to thwart him is by showing him that the country is still moving.

The claims that Lebanon is losing $70 million a day, that the down-town businesses are suing Hizballah for lost business revenues, and the shuttle diplomacy of numerous ambassadors "seeking to avert a calamity," all play into Nasrallah's hands. Send the Egyptian ambassador home, shut Jihad Azour up, control your stupid hoodlums (arrest them if you have to), get back to freakin' business, and inform you mouthpieces to focus their attention on other aspects of daily life in Lebanon - like say, the pollution emitted by the Zalqa power plant and reconstruction efforts.

Then, if Nasrallah decides to escalate, he holds full responsibility for the consequences. However, he has said he seeks peaceful protests, so we will take the Sayyed for his word.

The Charged Streets Of My Country

2006-12-03T20:23:00.000-05:00

Rumors of street clashes were rampant this past evening in Beirut. The ISF and the Army were moving to quell one clash before moving quickly to quell another.

Barboor, Qasqas, Sabra, Shatila, Rasul A3tham Mosque area (where the road to the airport was blocked for a short while), Corniche Mazra3a, Salim Salam Bridge area, and Basta.

These are all Beirut neighborhoods that witnessed clashes and gun fires. The outcome: 1 dead and 13 wounded.

Ahmad Ali Mahmoud was shot dead in the Shatila roundabout. He is said to be affiliated to Amal. It's not clear who fired the shots at him and another two who were on the streets, but security sources say that the shots were fired from far which implicates "fifth columnists" (Check Beirut to the Beltway's assessment on that).

An Annahar photographer sustained injuries and broken bones in his face in the Qasqas clash, a clash which lasted 45 minutes during which the Army was trying to quell it. A bus carrying Opposition supporters was heading back to Dahieh from the protests and passed by Qasqas. A verbal exchange took place between the neighborhood residents and the bus riders which led to fist fights, use of batons, and hurling of empty glass bottles and rocks.

The ISF rounded up three Syrians who were hurling stones on the bus from a nearby mosque. This led to a retaliatory move by burning several stores owned by Syrian nationals in the Sabra neighborhood.

Tripoli also witnessed gun fire in the Abu Samra area. As March 14 supporters gathered in Marj Zhour roundabout, men in a Range Rover started firing in the air using AK-47s. Their vehicle carried a red and white flag, without a cedar. After the Army's intervention, they found in their car guns and live ammunition.

On another note, the Annahar daily reported that ex-President Amin Gemayel visited Sayyid Nasrallah at night and then subsequently was in contact with March 14 representatives to discuss the outcome of the visit.

A group of March 14 representatives also headed to Ain El-Tineh to meet with Berri and request a call for a Parliamentary session to which Berri was reluctant and warned that convening a Parliamentary session now would transfer the problem to the Parliament and instead the Opposition's demands should be met.

Just several hours before it's daytime in Lebanon. Worried about tomorrow more than ever.

Update: BAD NEWS- another protestor died after succumbing to his wounds.

"Nobody knows how many rebellions, besides political rebellions, ferment in the masses of life which people earth."

one's got to go...

2006-12-03T13:52:00.000-05:00

Yesterday, fellow blogger abu kais and i sat down for a discussion. he said something profound: either hizballah goes or lebanon goes - simple. I agree. In fact, I feel Lebanon is on the brink of "going."

Gradually, with the passing of time, it dawns on me that (as i alluded to in my previous blog entry, a message to hizballah) the very reason behind Hizballah's success on the battlefield and in the so-called "Arab street" will be its downfall in Lebanon - or, alternatively, Lebanon's downfall. Hizballah's black and white vision of the world: evil-good, ally-enemy, devil-god, etc... is incompatible with a fluid, complex and contradictory political field and process.

Today, the organization's main focus has shifted from south of Lebanon's border to Beirut, Lebanon's capital. Interestingly however, the party continues to utilize the same language, or more accurately, vocabulary, in referring to the Lebanese government and other political players.

In other words, the primary focus (or, maybe, subject) of the organization has changed, but the organization itself appears intransigently set against change. Consequently, Hizballah portrays its political opponents within Lebanon, and deals with them (politically) in a similar manner to its dealings with Israel. Nuance, subtlety, sensitivity, and all other forms of accommodation seem non-existent in that party's political tool-kit. In the gray zone of the Lebanese political playing field Hizballah appears as fish out of water.

The main problem with this situation lies in its implication for Lebanon and Lebanese in general. Farid el Khazen (AUB professor and current MP) suggests that the Lebanese civil war of 1975 began because existing political processes and institutions were not able to absorb all the pressures inherent in, among other things, the PLO's presence in Lebanon.

Today, I see a parliament that's defunct, a presidency that, for all intents and purposes, is also defunct, and a government that's struggling to stay afloat. Needles to say, this situation does not bode well for the future of the country. On this note, I'll add that it doesn't surprise me that among the MPs rumored to have left MP Aoun's bloc is Farid el Khazen.

In the mean time, everybody who can is leaving the country.

In light of these developments, one thought that comes to mind is how difficult the project of co-opting Hizballah into becoming a Lebanese political party is turning out to be. I am convinced that if this process is to continue, the party itself will have to undergo a considerable overhaul - starting with its leadership. Hassan Nasrallah has obsessed about Israel since the 1980s! It is humanly impossible for him to, all of a sudden, focus his thinking and efforts exclusively on, say, improving his flock's socio-economic conditions.

Tensions and conflicts will continue in Lebanon until something dramatic within Hizballah occurs. Hizballah's mission to Hizballah-ize the state will fail. I hope that the consequence of that failure will no be the destruction of the state itself.

Friday Meets Sunday In The Grand Serail

2006-12-03T11:38:00.000-05:00

I am a bit speechless. Just how on Friday, Mufti Qabbani headed a Friday prayer in the Grand Serail in solidarity with the government, today a Sunday sermon in memory of Pierre Gemayel has been held in the Serail as well, headed by Bishop Mattar of the Beirut parish, in the presence of PM Seniora, the Cabinet Ministers who are staying put in the Serail, a slew of March 14 politicians, inluding Jumblatt and Amin Gemayyil and his family, and other media, industry and society figures.

This is the Lebanon that should be.

"Nobody knows how many rebellions, besides political rebellions, ferment in the masses of life which people earth."

the genius of hizballah

2006-12-02T08:10:00.000-05:00

The genius of this political move by Hizballah is emerging to the surface.

Yesterday, I thought to myself: what's all this fuss about? Let Hizballah's supporters go and demonstrate. Let them sit for a year if they want to... as long as they do so peacefully, as Hizballah has promised, I don't see why people are screaming bloody Mary!

The government will continue to function. The businesses located in the areas in which the protesters have settled will relocate, and everyone will live their lives as usual.

Besides, most of these guys still have to rebuild their homes and both them, as well as their temporary hosts (cousins, sisters, brothers, etc...) would appreciate a breath of fresh air along with guaranteed food supplies as well as other necessities.

I know that if I had to live in my cousin's house for three months as my house is being rebuilt, I'd definitely appreciate free alternative lodging with the accompanying belief that I was doing it for a good cause.

However, today, the genius behind these protests is more apparent. Hosni Moubarak, the dictator of Cairo has come out saying that if this lasts any longer, Lebanon will be destroyed. The Saudis are very active - behind the scenes, trying to end this spectacle. It seems the entire officialdom of the Arab world is up in arms!

On a somewhat related note, I remember back during the March 14 protests how queasy the Arab dictatorships were - if you don't believe me, just order some tapes of al Jazeera coverage and notice the tone of both news reporters and anchors. The regimes saw mass protests and freaked out - except: they lived with it because Lebanese were protesting against occupation and the injustices of an occupying force (that the arab regimes themselves, conveniently despised).

Today however, we see the same protests, with the declared intent of bringing down a government. To make matters worse, the protesters happen to be Shi'a, and the government, led by a Sunni prime minister. Now if you were a suni dictator, or king, and you saw such a spectacle, how would you feel? What if you had an oppressed shi'a population watching their tv sets as these protests transpire?

Is this Hizballah's payback? Payback for the statements issued by the Arab states during the first days of the Israeli onslaught that essentially justified the Israeli response? I am afraid it is. Such an extreme measure (in a regional context) is also proof that Hizballah viewed the status-quo ante as untenable. And now, the Arab dictatorships are sceaming! I can't believe Hosni Moubarak came out and threatened the destruction of Lebanon! who the *%^$& does he think he is?

Anyways... I predict the pressure Lebanon will face in these coming days will be massive. Not so much because the protesters will have any domestic impact, but because of satellite television and the insecure Arab dictators and kings who, more than anything, fear their publics.

Hassan Nasrallah will either get what he wants in return for backing down from the streets or some other solution will be cooked up. Either way, this situation will come to an end very soon. Again, not because of Lebanese factors (if it were a purely Lebanese matter, Hizballah would definitely lose - protesters, no matter how enthused will eventually return home), but because of some insecure idiots who feel very threatened by the spectacle of a peaceful demonstration organized with the express intent of bringing down a government (and, a government that does not mow them down with machine-gun fire).

Small Fish And Generals

2006-12-01T07:21:00.000-05:00

LBCI said the base of protestors comes from Hizbullah. My question is that why would Berri and Aoun accept to be small fish in a Hizbullah initiative?

Naseer Al-As'ad said it today in Al-Mustaqbal's editorial: That these politicians, not matter how important or high in stature, are but officers taking orders from the "General". He added that unfortunately that General is diminishing the magnitude of his stature by transforming his command from that of a leader of resistance in the face of Israel, to a leader of a coup inside his country. (Raja talked about this in his post: A Message to Hizbullah).

Al-As'ad also questioned whether what Hizbullah is doing looks like a party which considers itself as victorious in the July war against Israel, because what Hizbullah is doing is tearing apart this victory in narrow street protests. Or is Hizbullah in a bind it's trying to extricate itself from?

On another note, Al-As'ad believes that Lahoud's calling for civil servant disobedience of government orders is a direct message to the Army to not take orders from the government. Kudos to General Sleiman, who immediately issued a statement boosting the army's morale. Let's hope it doesn't get to that.

Alright, off to the TV!

Updates: The Christian participation (FPM and Marada) in the demonstration is weak, according to LBCI. 240 buses and 300 cars have come from the north (a mix of Marada and FPM). LBCI claims that perhaps Patriarch Sfeir's words yesterday impacted Christian participation today.

In general participation from Tripoli has been scant, especially from Karami's supporters.

Franjieh on Al-Manar TV has hurled insults at Patriarch Sfeir. He said that Sfeir got TURNED ON (t'hayyaj) by seeing all these women in Bkirki yesterday. He truely is of a lowly type!

Barbed wire around the Grand Serail; no one is allowed to get close from all four sides.

More Updates: The demonstration's main slogan is "We Want A Clean Government" (noureed 7oukouma nazifa). What does that mean? This is what Aoun is standing in front of.

He said that he does not want to speak in a sectarian way, but then he says that PM Seniora should yield his position so another Sunni can take over.

Anyways, his speech is weak all in all. He didn't say anything out of the ordinary, just calls for the government to step down and of course that he is more independent and will ensure a sovereign and clean Lebanon, etc....

And added that perhaps under his reign, there wouldn't be army tanks spread around the city to protect the government. I'm sorry, I fail to believe you GENERAL Aoun! Did you notice that Lahoud was a general, Aoun was a general, and Nasrallah is a general? How can I believe that under their reign, my country will not be ruled by a military junta?

Addendum: So that's it??? Aoun makes his address, end of story? Where are the other leaders who organized and called for this rally?

Is Aoun that desperate to leave Rabieh and address the crowds and make a statement, when Berri is still in Ain El-Tineh and Nasrallah already made it clear that he won't show up and address the crowds?...Any answers to these questions?

"Nobody knows how many rebellions, besides political rebellions, ferment in the masses of life which people earth."

Khalleek Bil Beit

2006-11-30T23:06:00.000-05:00

Nothing were more calming and reassuring this evening than the words of May Chidiac and our Prime Minister Seniora.

May Chidiac addressed a crowd of women, the most notable of which are the female members of those who have been assassinated during the past two years, in Bkirki. She asked that if those women attending know any member in their family or in their neighborhoods who plan to go to the streets tomorrow to ask them not to, because no one wants things to get out of control.

We tend to dismiss women and their power in our societies. It's sickening sometimes seeing men control the political scene and make or break a future of generations to come. Mothers play a major role in mobilizing their children towards a certain cause, towards a certain party affiliation, or towards a way of thinking and it doesn't need to be directly political, but can be social and societal which in turn shapes political orientation as youth become adults.

As for PM Seniora. His stand diffused tensions (at least for me), which is to let the demonstrators demonstrate; it's a democratic system, but any plans of overthrowing the government without resorting to the Parliament are unacceptable.

If I was back in Lebanon, I will take a stand by staying home. It's a new way of expressing one's political views: Khalleek Bil Beit! Staying home to avoid conflict, to let those who might be among the demonstrators and who are vying for conflict to seethe with pain because they won't be reaching their sinister goal. I'm trying to be optimistic; tomorrow might just be only one day of demonstrations.

The question is what if the demonstrations dragged on until the Opposition achieved its goal of toppling the government? This is where the worse case scenarios are invoked in my mind.

At any rate, our government, the government of the Second Indpendence (houkoumat al istiklal al thani) did not get a chance to achieve a sliver of what it wanted to. Politics, heavy politics (which included political assassinations and HA/Amal Ministers boycotting Cabinet sessions) superseded all other policy areas and then the July war broke out and it inflicted problems more than the government was able to absorb and process in a short time period.

The government had a difficult task to achieve which is defining for the country a new paradigm to operate within, yet a paradigm that preserved the spirit of the Taif Agreement . So far, all parties involved failed to reach a consensus. But PM Seniora did mention in his speech today that dialogue was a challenge, as the other side when not agreeing to a proposal would immediately resort to threats, intimidation, and accusations of acts of treason.

I believed Seniora when he said today that he is not the type to seek power or domination, nevertheless he will not relinquish his responsibilities as a Prime Minister. He would step down if the Parliament rescinded its vote of confidence in the government, but right now, he's defending the Istiklel and I am with the government.

The demonstrators tomorrow might not know that by doing everything under the sun to topple this government they are handing a victory to the Syrian regime which is ready to use this upcoming disturbance to justify the need to have Lebanon return to its sphere of influence (because we are brutes and we don't know how to handle governance independently). But again, some of the demonstrators do not mind that at all.

"Nobody knows how many rebellions, besides political rebellions, ferment in the masses of life which people earth."

a message to hizballah

2006-11-30T20:45:00.000-05:00

get new leadership.

hassan nasrallah accomplished what millions around the world consider wonders for his organization when its main focus was repelling israel and making it too costly for the israelis to remain as occupiers in lebanon.

however, today, the situation has changed dramatically. the main focus of hizballah is no longer israel. it is lebanon. and a man who was highly proficient at one task does not necessarily need to be proficient at another - unlike, women, who I hear are masters of multi-tasking.

A flattering historical precedent of such a shift would be churchill. the man did wonders during wartime, but was booted out when his country faced the challenges of peace-time governance. if the british could do it, i'm sure lebanese can - or can they?

the point here is that hizballah has entered a new era in its history. gradually (and whether it likes it or not) the organization is being turned into a political party meant exclusively to play a role within the lebanese political process. it's focus is shifting from war to peace. And if such a dramatic shift is to take place smoothly or at all (leaving lebanon in one piece) then I believe that new leadership is called for.

Of course one could make a similar argument for the entire political elite. jumblatt, jaejae and the rest all "grew up" as politicians during the civil war. however, at least they went through a little more than a decade of what one could consider "a transition period." some of them spent it under syrian tutelage and others spent it in a prison cell or in exile. not exactly good practice to run an independent state, but definitely better than transitioning from war to peace-time leaders in a matter of a year or two.

on that note, allow me to cite the lebanese constitution. It takes special consideration of this war-peace leadership dichotomy. it specifically stipulates that the commander of the lebanese armed forces cannot become president of the republic unless he retires for a certain number of years (or - and I'm not sure this is in the constitution - the syrians decide otherwise). So you see... even the vaunted constitution supports me on this notion.

Therefore, I conclude, and reiterate that Hassan Nasrallah and his "hizballah cabinet/politburo" need a vacation. I recommend Malta. Maybe, Mohammend Fneish can take over for 10 years while Nasrallah absorbs the sun, and winds down in his temporary European home. I think everyone will be better off if he does - and I'll even be willing to pitch in if he needs the money.

On The Streets Friday

2006-11-30T07:04:00.000-05:00

Update 3: Just got news that guns were fired in Beirut in support of Seniora's speech. This was in return for guns fired in Dahieh in support of Nasrallah's speech this morning. (Naharnet claims they're fireworks)

Update 2: I didn't get the chance to listen in on PM Seniora's speech live (which I will do at 8PM Eastern time), but for now this is what Naharnet has posted:

Prime Minister Fouad Saniora vowed on Thursday that his government will fight attempts to bring back foreign tutelage on Lebanon. Saniora also urged the Lebanese to stand by the “legitimate” government, adding that the only way to bring down the cabinet is through parliament.

Update: PM Seniora will be addressing the Lebanese at 8PM Lebanese time, which is 1PM Eastern time.
*********************************************************************************
Okay, they called for the open demonstrations starting tomorrow Friday in downtown Beirut!

Sayyid Nasrallah in a televised address called on all Lebanese to join Hizbullah in protesting against the current government. What struck me most was his claim that the government did not do much since it took power. I wonder why? The war this summer?...

And then Najah Wakim was dug out from hybernation and suddenly was on TV calling on civil servants to stop taking orders from the government, when the Opposition signals the beginning of such a move. He added that this move will ensure the success of toppling the government.

I never knew that Lahoud liked Najah Wakim and chatted together on peaceful strategies of demonstrating.

But at any rate, if I was back home I would fight to not allow this government to be toppled. It's not about any particular minister in the government or the Prime Minister, but it's more symbolic than that. At a much younger age, populism was attractive. But now, I see "one-color" populism, a la Aoun and Hizbullah, appalling!

It's challenging being diplomatic at this time. I don't feel that I need to appease anyone by being more conciliatory. Perhaps because March 14 adopted a conciliatory attitude since the Syrians left the country, we are losing power. Remember the overtures from March 14 towards Aoun to join them for elections? And then after everything that happened, PM Seniora's overtures to Aoun to take part in the government? What about coopting Hizbullah and Amal all along? We did not see any good will coming from them, least of which is supporting the tribunal. What about the dialogue sessions, which were a farce, because Hizbullah went ahead and decided to hijack the country's foreign policy? The list can go and on...

What do they want? Do they want a March 14 force that is of one color? Of one sect or two? Would they respect us more if we carried arms? If we used threats? If our Prime Minister insulted heads of states? Or wore an army fatigue?

I should stop here!

"Nobody knows how many rebellions, besides political rebellions, ferment in the masses of life which people earth."

The Surprise Factor And Fear

2006-11-29T23:14:00.000-05:00

The situation continued to deteriorate from bad to worse this past day. I realized today how words can be stronger and more effective at mobilizing viewers (whether for or against).

At any rate, the Opposition is heading to the streets; we just don't know when. Yes, they could be peaceful, but there are factors that just make it much more than that.

Today President Lahoud (whom I cannot stand to be our President anymore) told BBC that along with peaceful demonstrations to which the opposition has the right, civil servants are encouraged to disobey government orders because the government is unconstitutional. He even went to equate this situation to that of Ghandi's civil disobedience tactics under the British colonial rule! (I think at that moment I was going to puke out of embarassment for such choice of a simile; even the BBC journalist was taken aback).

It did not stop there. Aoun, who it seems is losing his mind, has called on his supporters to take part in "acts of protests" (whatever that entails) alongside guess who? SSNP! This time Aoun is not just providing a political cover for SSNP, but now overtly being allied with it.

Just like Hizbullah, Aoun refused to provide a specific day they plan on demonstrating. Meanwhile, the Interior Ministry has not received as of yet any formal request for demonstrating, which is a standard operating procedure even in the U.S. So how could HA/Aoun et al. hold the government accountable for maintaining the peace while they demonstrate, when they're not even notified of the scope and direction of the demonstrations? The element of surprise here begets me and is only making Beirut look like an army barracks at night, with army tanks circulating the downtown area and Internal Security Forces scattered everywhere, in anticipation of that surprise demonstration.

Just a side note on Aoun, in his press conference, he declared the Parliament corrupt and illegal/unconstitutional because the last elections relied on the 2000 Parliamentary law, which was heavily rigged through Syrian intelligence interference. The LBCI reporter asked him a smart question, "If the Parliament is illegal, then how can it givethe aspired-for "national unity" government a vote of confidence?" Aoun mumbled and contradicted himself by saying that the Parliament should not only give a vote of confidence to such a government but also come up and vote on a new electoral law. Go figure! And if it's unconstitutional, then how did he take part in the elections and shouldn't his representation role be in question?

He dismissed and insulted politicians here and there and yelled at reporters here and there. Is this someone who is President material?...He thinks every government institution is unconstitutional now; he's the savior, or that's what he likes to think of himself. Oh, and I forgot, he talked about the "holy" anger (al-ghadab al-moukaddas). What is that?

But going back to the demonstrations issue, Wi'am Wahhab, the fifth columnist who has returned to life after a short hybernation (including Nassir Qandil who visited Lahoud in Baabda), infuriated me the most when he threatened that, "For those who are calling for the implementation of the U.N. Chapter VII, there's a new term not found in their dictionary called the Chapter of Martyrdom and Martyrs!" What a lowly threat! And what a direct allusion to what took place in Yabous yesterday.

He continued by saying that the national unity government they're calling for is one that will consider void all resolutions/laws that have passed under the Seniora government this past year! Of course, this includes 1701, the tribunal, and Paris III among other resolutions passed.

You might say that these are just words. But a lot of chatter provides a cover for some ugly acts done against our country. We're not fools and we've been following the trends these past two years. Couple words with the suicide bombing incident in Yabous and the Beddawi piece of news and the picture starts to look scarier.

My Mom today told me that what the Opposition is doing is harb a3sab (a war of nerves). All what my family does on a daily basis now is scan all the news channels for news, and more news about what's happening and what is to happen.

Personally, I'm being pushed to the edge. I feel helpless just like I felt helpless when my country was being bombed this summer. I can't do anything from the beltway, but watch the news and get infuriated. I am becoming more convinced that I don't want a compromise with Hizbullah and all the pro-Syrian detail attached. It's sad to be pushed to that limit, but I am not able to see a functioning partnership, when there is disagreement on the basics, such as complying with U.N. resolutions and being open to the international community. Even Justice Minister Charles Rizk, who was Lahoud's man in the Cabinet, switched sides and moved forward with the tribunal resolution, leaving Lahoud behind.

But on the other hand, PM Seniora is calling once again for dialogue. But we just had two round of dialogues this past year, the first one was followed by Hizbullah's kidnapping of the two Israeli soldiers which unleashed the war of hell on Lebanon, and the second of which led to the resignation of HA/Amal's Ministers from the Cabinet.

They don't have a solution to offer up for such a complicated existential dilemma, neither do I.

"Nobody knows how many rebellions, besides political rebellions, ferment in the masses of life which people earth."

It's Bleak

2006-11-29T08:18:00.000-05:00

I'm in a hurry. But it doesn't look good anymore. After it appeared that yesterday there was a solution in sight proposed by Amin Gemayel in Berri's residence Ain El-Tineh, Hizbullah in the same day deemed the proposals as insufficient.

And today Berri, after recommending against demonstrating on the streets, has changed his mind and is meeting with the likes of Wiam Wahhab, among other pro-Syrian figures.

LBCI's assessment is that the Opposition will be demonstrating soon on the streets of Beirut....

There's almost a determination not to come to a compromise and not to let cooler heads prevail, despite the father of a slain son taking on a brave step as leaving his residence where he was receiving condolences and heading to Ain El-Tineh to propose a solution for the good of the country.

Berri seems like he's being pressured against taking a moderate position. So where does that take the Parliamentary session that will vote on the tribunal proposal?...

"Nobody knows how many rebellions, besides political rebellions, ferment in the masses of life which people earth."

Lebanon - an American foreign policy perspective.

2006-11-28T11:20:00.000-05:00

Lebanon got a lot of coverage in some of this month's US foreign policy publications. Foreign Affairs, for example, published five articles about the war between Hizballah and Israel which looked at its local and regional implications and provided some policy recommendations. The National Interest also published an article, somewhat pessimistically referred to as "Lebanon Post-Mortem."

Paul Salem authored one of the pieces in Foreign Affairs. I'll paste some ideas and recommendations he articulated that caught my attention and share them with you:

If Resolution 1701 is thoroughly implemented and the Lebanese government takes its security responsibilities seriously, Hezbollah will grow weaker and the Lebanese state will emerge as stronger. Despite the devastation wrought on the country, Lebanon can use the UN resolution as an opportunity for considerable progress in the immediate future. Its ability to do so will depend on what steps are taken to consolidate national security, economic recovery and political development.

...

The key players all have important choices to make. Hezbollah must decide whether it actually wishes to integrate into the Lebanese state, and the Shiite community that backs it must choose between two mutually exclusive options: a united and independent Lebanon or a "two-state solution." The government could help bring the Shiite community closer to the former choice by taking seriously the community's complaints about how the post-Taif state has developed. While Syria dominated Lebanon, the main Shiite parties allied with Damascus, enjoyed considerable power. With the Syrians gone, the Shiite's concerns have become more pressing and relevant. At some point soon, a bicameral legislature must be established, with a lower house free of confessional quotas, which would allow the Shiites better representation. It will not do to argue that the Shiites cannot be trusted with power because they are too close to outside actors (as the Maronites argued of the Sunnis in the past). They will reduce their dependence on foreign powers largely to the extent that they feel like they have a secure stake in the government. The horse must be put in front, and the cart will follow. And every group in Lebanon has at some point committed the sin of relying on extensive outside support: the Maronites allied with Israel and the Sunnis with the Palestine Liberation Organization, and everyone used-and was used-by the Syrians.

Volker Perthes also writes an article about the conflict, except, from the Syrian perspective. He writes some thought-provoking lines, including,

Especially since the withdrawal of Syrian troops from Lebanon in 2005, Hizbollah has become much more independent of Damascus. Most likely high-level Syrian officials did not know about the July 12 raid until after it happened.

...

Since Bashar al -Assad took over after the death of his father, Hafez el Assad, six years ago, state institutions have weakened and lost considerable authority.

...

Yet some remote regions in northeastern Syria, where tensions between Arabs and Kurds run high, are no longer under the central government's control. Sunni notables compalin about growing Shiite influence, especially Iranian money flowing into the country to buy, among other things, real estate around the Umayyad Mosque in Damascus.

...

In private, many officials in Damascus admitted their initial uneasiness over Hezbollah's cross-border abduction in July. But the leadership quickly recognized how the confrontation in Lebanon could prove beneficial to its own strategic interests. [I have to say that this quote is somewhat disingenuous, especially considering that the overwhelming majority of Hizballah "officials" had no idea the attack would take place either].

In The National Interest, Daniel Byman & Steven Simon offer some interesting Lines:

Reports that Iran prodded HIzballah to attack to divert attention from the Iranian nuclear program seem to be false. The dispute over the Iranian program has been going on for years with no end in sight, and Hizballah had tried other operations in the past. Similarly the claim that this conflict was a proxy war initiated by Iran to test whether a foe like the US (using Israel as a stand-in) could be defeated by an opponent that would fight hard and be willing to take casualties ignores the fact that far more important in Teheran's calculations are the successes that various fighters in Iraq have had against the United States.

...

[During the war,] the Lebanese government suffered the ultimate indignity for any regime: It was ignored. Once again, it is clear to all factions in Lebanon that their government cannot protect them from foreign threats or strong domestic groups like Hizballah.

...

Syria has emerged as the only credible gurantor of HIzballah's future good behavior [in Lebanon], and Israel has been reminded that it will not have peace with HIzballah unless it has peace with Syria. [The dual role that Syria plays] as Hizballah's backer and Hizballah's controller has long fit Syrian foreign policy. As Michael Doran contends, " Ever since the 19 80s, Syria has played this game of being both the arsonist and the fire department."

anti-sectarianism campaign gets covered by Wash Post

2006-11-28T00:23:00.000-05:00

The Washington Post runs an artilce about the recent anti-sectarianism campaign that a marketing agency in Beirut launched. check it out.

Anyways, my favorite part of the article is its conclusion - and it has barely anything to do with the campaign itself. I'll copy and paste it over here just in case you don't get the chance to read the entire thing.

At a cafe near downtown, Randy Nahle, a 21-year-old student, wondered about the way out. His father is Shiite, his mother Maronite Catholic. The neighborhood he sits in, like virtually every one in Beirut, has its markers: the posters and religious symbols on walls, the muezzin or the church bells that identify its affiliation.

For once, he said, something organized spoke to his rejection of being "categorized or oversimplified."

He smiled at his favorite ads, the ones that identified doctors by their sect. "It has infiltrated our fabric so much, almost indelibly," Nahle said. "If I have an earache, an Orthodox doctor will understand it better. It's an Orthodox ear."

He recalled sitting with a Shiite woman at a cafe near the American University in Beirut. She treated him as a fellow Shiite until he revealed his mixed background. She looked at him disapprovingly. It's bad for the children, she said. "They're going to come out confused," she told him.

"I said, 'You know, the problem of this country is we don't have enough confused people. The problem is we have too many people blindly convinced by their political orientation, by their religion, by their community's superiority.' "

She smiled, he recalled, and then laughed a little uncomfortably.

The Maronite Wild Card

2006-11-27T06:52:00.000-05:00

If Cardinal Sfeir had a pessimistic view yesterday about uniting the Christians of Lebanon, then how could anyone be optimistic?

Judging from the nature of the political conflict nowadays, we see new contending players, Hizbullah on one side and the Future Movement on the other side and judging from Iraq, the conflict is along the Shiite-Sunni lines. So when thoughts of a civil war are invoked, we quickly fear a Sunni-Shiite war.

However, the animosity among Christian factions, to be exact Maronite, is perhaps one of the last vestiges of our last civil war. That simmering, yet increasingly-apparent conflict could be just that wild card to lead the country down the violence path.

This is why Syria has focused its assassinations on Christian politicians and its bombings of Christian commercial and residential establishments for the past two years. But this last assassination targeted a Maronite politician and I fear has struck at the heart of that simmering conflict.

What brought all this home was yesterday's statement by former Kesserouan MP Farid Khazen from Bkirki. He said that if Aoun (and FPM) wants to "go down to the streets", there are many strategic areas wherein he can demonstrate. But he gravely warned from demonstrating in Christian areas and added that, "Pierre Gemayyel's blood has not cooled" (dammoo ma barad). He continued, "We did not forget the massacres that took place in Qolei'at, Sin El-Fil, and Nahr El-Mot."

This last statement was powerful, because for the first time and from Bkirki we're hearing statements alluding to the civil war, particularly the years which witnessed fierce battles among Maronites factions.

This is why our civil war has been the most destructive to the social fabric of many communities; not only was the war sectarian and ideological, but it also was intra-sectarian.

And unfortunately it seems that the Maronites have not come to terms with the past. For 15 years, the animosity was put on hold with Geagea in jail, Aoun in exile, and the Phalange Party divided. For 15 years, the Christians left their intra-conflict in their homes and slowly started working together to protest the Syrian tutelage.

I guess, we're back to square one. Except this time the political leaders are working harder to control their supporters and the streets. In my assessment, Amin Gemayyel played an important role in dampening the anger among the Phalangists; right after Pierre's death we held our breaths fearing that all hell will break loose, but that storm somehow is beyond us now.

Aoun upon his return from exile spoiled the "party" and the "love affair". He wanted things to be his way or the highway, and that did not work. His visit to Geagea in jail was a positive move then, but Aoun's provocative words, more than his actions, inflame even the most indifferent about Lebanese politics. His decision to forego the March 14 alliance during the latest Parliamentary elections, butted Christians one against the other and yes, spoiled the "love affair."

He, in the words of Amin Gemayyel, has taken a path that contradicts the slogans his movement stands for, most importantly, sovereignty (siyede). How could Aoun call for sovereignty when he is de facto allied with for instance the SSNP (and if not allied, then is providing them with a political cover)? SSNP's creed does not consider Lebanon to be sovereign, but part of a larger Syria. This is only one example. Gemayyel on Al-Jazeera two days ago called on Aoun to return to his natural place on the Lebanese political map.

From my point of view, diversity is healthy. But apparently diversity in the Maronite political sphere is dangerous and destructive because the Maronite psyche is not letting go of the civil war.

So as I said, the Maronite card is the wild card. We'll watch and see what happens on the streets this week. Hizbullah is promising a "surprise" move. In the words of a Hizbullah spokesman, "We want to keep the government on their feet."

And just when Khazen made his statement from Bkirki yesterday morning, in the evening, in a trash bin next to his house in Qolei'at, three anti-personnel mines (duds) were discovered. Not a good sign of things to come.

"Nobody knows how many rebellions, besides political rebellions, ferment in the masses of life which people earth."

the constituents' message to their representatives

2006-11-25T10:57:00.000-05:00

I have been reading and hearing about how the inter-sectarian violence in Iraq could spill-over across the region, but specifically into Lebanon since the bombing of the Sammarra Mosque a year or two ago. Two more recent events have raised the prominence of those warnings:

the rally organized in response to the murder of Piere Gemeyel - and subsequent response by supporters of Hizballah.
the massacre of Iraqi Shi'as, the subsequent retribution on Sunnis and the subsequent spiral of violence (which is still going on as I type up this post).

With regards to the first event, I hold the Lebanese political elite responsible for any sectarian fall-out that results from the rally, as well as other political shenanigans they pull to achieve their objectives. On that note, some commentators mock the purported low turn-out to the rally on Thursday. The figure cited is 200,000 as opposed to a million, which was estimated by some to be the turn-out of the first such protest.

If true, I see this development as hopeful. It symbolizes that the Lebanese people see where their leaders are headed, and they refuse to go there willingly. Furthermore, among those who did attend, I wonder how many actually did so to protest violence and political assassinations as opposed to, say, express support for the March 14 political grouping and their policies.

Several protesters photographed during the rally, for example, carried posters with slogans such as “Lebanon means Life,” and “Shove your civil war." These messages and others like them support the hypothesis that at least a minority of the rally attendees went down primarily to express their nervousness about the perceived prospect of violence.

I hope those who gave speeches on that day took note of both those messages (i.e. the lower turn-out, as well as the posters).

In fact, and on that note, allow me to suggest that had we had our own elections last week, or even today, I am certain the results would have been as dramatic as the results of the American midterm elections. This is not to say that former March 14 voters would have voted for Hizballah. Rather, they would have voted for alternatives if they could have, or just stayed home. Again… their message: “We do not support where you're taking the country. We don't want war.”

As for the second event I listed in the beginning of this entry (the Iraqi massacres), again, I turn my attention to the Lebanese people; however, in this case, my assessment of their behavior is much less flattering. It baffles me... it really baffles me to hear a Lebanese shi'ite or sunni get the urge to harm their compatriot just because some idiots in Iraq have decided that they're going to kill each other. Their line of thinking goes like this:

I'm going to go abuse or kill my neighbor and make my life much more miserable in the process just because people I have never even met before (or ever will meet in my life) are brutally killing each other thousands of miles away.

This type of thinking (if it can be called as such) emanates from God knows the fuck where. Maybe men's penises. Therefore, I’ll take this opportunity to convey a message to my Lebanese compatriots courtesy of Robin Williams: “God gave men a brain and a penis, with only enough blood to work one at a time.” Please make good use of these words of wisdom. I know they may be vulgar, and said by a perpetual drunk (despite his denials). However, their vulgarity merely reflects a different form of vulgarity that emanates from the “thinking” I cited above.

On a more serious note though, I reiterate what I’ve said before on this blog: the solution lies in a capable Lebanese state. A state that absolutely monopolizes the use of force. A state that takes exclusively Lebanese interests to heart as defined by the Lebanese people. A state that does not fight others’ battles on Lebanese soil. A state guided by the desire of all Lebanese to live comfortable and prosperous lives.

Yes, I know… a bit obvious and tacky, but I need to join those Lebanese who did not attend the rally on Thursday as well as those who attended, but did so with their own messages, and express it anyhow.

To hell in a hand-basket...

2006-11-23T20:52:00.000-05:00

that's where Lebanon's leaders seem intent on taking their countrymen. Two camps with diametrically opposed views, alliances, interests and intents. Each of them stubborn; unwilling to concede. There's bound to be an explosion sooner or later.

As for yesterday’s rally, it was merely a wave; a wave that washed up against a rock and receded back into the sea. That temporary, almost fickle, nature of the March 14 protests is the reason that people who argue "the Syrians could not have killed Gemayel and all the other politicians because it runs counter to their interests" are wrong.

The March 14 protests constitute nothing but bursts of activity that ultimately whither away into oblivion. For God's sake, if the murder of Hariri himself did not change much in Lebanon's internal political dynamics, how much would the murder of George Hawi, Gebran Tueini or even Pierre Gemayel bring? One could counter that Hariri’s murder lead to “a Parliamentary revolution.” However, all it takes is one look at that institution’s irrelevance in politics today to notice how inconsequential that electoral victory turned out.

The Syrians feel pretty secure about Hizballah's ability to hold its own against these waves of protest and fury. So they do what they need to, to gain any sort of advantage on the international playing field. Their message to the powers that seek to remove Lebanon from the Syrian orbit is obvious:

You see your precious little Lebanon... your example of democracy in the middle east... your prized example of religious co-existence (both christian-muslim and sunni-shi'a); I can light it up with the push of a button. And if you don't talk to me... if you don't deal with the Syrian state as the guarantor of peace in Lebanon, that's exactly what I'll do.

And alas, those two reasons: Syria's international dealings, which are partially motivated by its intent to return to Lebanon and Hizballah's immunity from the March 14 waves, lie behind the continued assassinations in the country.

As for the reasons behind the continued peace, it appears that the interests of the French and Americans lie in the removal of Lebanon from the Syrian orbit – yet, in so doing, keeping the country in tact. In other words, the costs of a civil war apparently outweigh the benefits of engaging Hizballah militarily or keeping the country outside of the Syrian sphere. The March 14 politicians also harbor the same calculations. The Syrians, on the other hand, have already declared their intentions: "if you kick us out, we'll bring it down over your head." They feel Lebanon is their property. They feel it was taken from them. They want it back.

Both Hizballah and March 14 project dispositions similar to those of the Syrians (in the sense of their absoluteness and intensity). Hizballah asserts that it would rather be caught dead than allow Lebanon to fall under the sway of the West. The March 14 camp says the same with regards to returning to Syrian tutelage.

In such a tense and gridlocked situation, where all the major local parties' positions are so intransigent and uncompromising, something is gonna have to give. An appropriate analogy would be two major tectonic plates pushing against each other incessantly until, at some point in time, all hell breaks loose - think of the Indian Ocean tsunami.

The most pliable players in the Lebanon saga appear to be the Western nations. They believe they have the least to lose and the most to gain from a compromise with Syria regarding Lebanon. The March 14 camp, might not accept such a compromise however, and the price of a return to "stability" in Lebanon may ultimately be the heads of some of its top leaders – most notably the most intransigent among them.

Sadly enough, I think that that scenario may be one of the better outlooks for Lebanon’s future. Of course, the Lebanese state could step up to the plate and protect Lebanese from Syrian efforts destabilization efforts, or the two camps could get together and come to some sort of agreement, or the Lebanese people could rise up against their sectarian overlords and establish a New Republic.

But who am I kidding? I'm snuggling myself into that hand-basket, and getting ready for a long, simmering ride.

HA Playing Hard Ball

2006-11-23T17:37:00.000-05:00

MP Ali Ammar spoke in the name of Hizbullah and claimed that Hizbullah refuses PM Seniora's invitation for the HA Cabinet Ministers to return to the Cabinet. He added that PM Seniora is a liar and receives his instructions from U.S. Ambassador to Lebanon Feltman. He reiterated the importance of forming a new national unity government because the current government is illegitimate and unconstitutional.

So Hizbullah is playing hard ball!

On another point, Fares Soueid whispered in Amin Gemayyel's ear while Gemayyel was addressing the crowds earlier in the day some words where the word, "I'tissam" (Protest/Sit in) was audible through the microphone. Gemayyel, however after pausing for few seconds, did not mention the protest. I wonder why Gemayyel decided not to go ahead and announce the sit-in, that perhaps was being planned to take place in Martyr's Square.

We'll know maybe by tomorrow the details.

"Nobody knows how many rebellions, besides political rebellions, ferment in the masses of life which people earth."

After The Funeral...

2006-11-23T16:00:00.000-05:00

Hizbullah supporters were asked by Nasrallah to return home after they blocked the main highway to the airport.

But the more disturbing news is that in Tripoli, again for the second night, there was an exchange of fire, but the clashes were between Internal Security Forces and armed men in the Palestinian refugee camp of Biddawi. There were sounds of gunshots and also of rocket fire.

Anyways, the speeches today at Gemayyel's funeral were extremely charged, it felt like March 14ers will be asked to head to Baabda. But later we learned that the leaders of March 14 do not want to use the streets to achieve their political goals. It remains to be seen what their strategy is other than managing to pass the tribunal resolution in the Cabinet on Saturday.

On another point, Associated Press claims that Amin Gemayyel, the father of the slain Pierre, skipped Parliament Speaker Berri as he greeted politicians and diplomats who attended his son's funeral in the St. Georges Cathedral.

However, MP Butros Harb said on LBC's Kalam Innass talk show that this piece of news is incorrect. Amin Gemayyil greeted Berri at the entrance of the Cathedral thanking him for attending and so that's why when he was shaking hands with politicians at a later point, he shook hands with Arab League President Amr Moussa, then skipped Berri (because he already greeted him) and shook hands with PM Seniora.

And...Hizbullah sent no delegation to the funeral. The question is why?

"Nobody knows how many rebellions, besides political rebellions, ferment in the masses of life which people earth."

surprising, notable and appreciated presences

2006-11-23T06:06:00.000-05:00

As I watched the proceedings, I was pleased with the appearances of the following:

Delegation from Hizballah - unfortunately, I'm not sure who they are yet (I heard they were there through the commentator - actually, I'm not sure - I'll have to reconfirm.) CORRECTION: There is no Hizballah delegation.
The Speaker of the Lebanese Parliament, Nabih Berri, his wife, and three members of his parliamentary bloc.

Had Berri not made his presence felt, I would have been terrified of the repercussions on sectarian relations. Of course, now that I stand corrected on Hizballah, I can't bring myself to comprehend why Hizballah didn't send a delegation.

The Patriarch of the Lebanese Maronite Church, Mar Nasrallah Butrous Sfeir. The Patriarch did not send a representative and remain within the safe confines of Bkirki - as we have come to expect.
The French Foreign Minister, Philippe Douste-Blazy.
The Secretary General of the Arab League, Amr Mousa.

Maybe the attendance of these two signify that the country still has at least some regional and international support.

Addendum: Commenter, Ghassan, says that a Hizballah delegation is at the church. I don't know who's right frankly.

Banners From Beirut Spring

2006-11-22T15:29:00.000-05:00

Our blogger friend Mustapha from Beirut Spring designed a couple of banners for those who are planning to head tomorrow to Central Beirut. Check them out; they can be easily downloaded and printed in different sizes.

"Nobody knows how many rebellions, besides political rebellions, ferment in the masses of life which people earth."

the conspicuous absence

2006-11-22T12:54:00.000-05:00

The number-one role of the state; the priority that precedes all others. Indeed, the raison dêtre of the state, in both the theoretical and worldly realms, lies in its effective monopolization of the use of force within the territory it claims as its own.

If that condition cannot be met, then it,, cannot be said that a state exists. Using this logic, it is safe to assert that Lebanon is yet to be governed by a state.

Acting as a "middle-man" for Saudi, European and American money intended for use by Lebanese civilians who seek to rebuild their homes following the Israeli onslaught earlier this year is not enough.

Gaining recognition from other states and international bodies is not even close to enough.

Hosting legislative or ministerial meetings that yield legislation, policies, decrees, panels, committees or programs is not enough.

Not even taxation, the provision of services, subsidies, and the employment of hundreds of thousands of individuals is enough. None of these functions, either in-and-of-themselves or as a combined whole, characterize a state.

Rather, the state distinguishes itself from all other governing institutions, by its exclusive ability and right to use force against – and to kill, if necessary - those deemed by the law of the land as enemies of Lebanon. Every other function is secondary in nature.

Members of Lebanon's political elite... for all their purported finesse and wisdom; for all their rumored insight and prescience; for all their apparent shrewdness and cunning, have, thus far, failed at this most basic of tasks.... This priority of priorities.

Should they be given more time? How much more time? Does the incessant killing push them to redouble their efforts? What progress is there to be seen? As a citizen, I want to know – I demand transparency! Is there any progress at all?

Without a state, no one in Lebanon will be safe – neither the peasant nor the "first-tier" politician. Those who are betting on the international tribunal or some other international development or pressure to protect them only fool themselves.

The clock is ticking.

Grand Serail Sleep Over

2006-11-22T11:10:00.000-05:00

I was thinking to myself this morning that perhaps the Ministers and Prime Minister should just stay put in the Grand Serail until they pass the tribunal resolution on Saturday. If they just sleep over this week, the country will probably be somewhat saved from another Minister taking the path of Pierre's.

Little did I know that sources are saying that PM Seniora is in fact contemplating the idea of asking the Ministers to sleep over at the Grand Serail until Monday of next week.

I guess we're all thinking the same thing...

"Nobody knows how many rebellions, besides political rebellions, ferment in the masses of life which people earth."

Geagea Not Discounting Heading to Baabda

2006-11-22T07:31:00.000-05:00

Geagea was asked by reporters in Bikfaya, where he was paying his condolences, whether the rumors that the March 14 demonstrators will be asked to head to Baabda tomorrow after Pierre Gemayel's funeral, he paused and then responded by shaking his head as in saying, "Perhaps, maybe..."

"Nobody knows how many rebellions, besides political rebellions, ferment in the masses of life which people earth."

Tripoli: Yesterday and Tomorrow

2006-11-22T06:58:00.000-05:00

The family in Tripoli told me just now that they're heading to Beirut tomorrow and that the gathering in Central Beirut will look similar to the March 14 mass demonstration two years ago.

But they also said that yesterday night there was an exchange of fire between Tibbeneh and Jabal Mihsen, an area heavily populated by Alawites and Syrian Alawites who have been naturalized in the '90s.

There's a fear that tomorrow might just bring another tragedy, perhaps another assassination attempt to stop the demonstration from taking place.

There's this widespread feeling that things are getting worse, not better. People are afraid to leave their homes at night and afraid to speak out.

We'll wait and see what tomorrow brings.

"Nobody knows how many rebellions, besides political rebellions, ferment in the masses of life which people earth."

Critical Two Weeks

2006-11-22T06:08:00.000-05:00

News sources on LBC announced that the Cabinet is scheduled to meet on Friday/Saturday to pass the tribunal resolution. Moreover, sources say that Interior Minister Sabeh might just rescind his resignation and return to the Cabinet.

After Cabinet passage, the tribunal package will go to Baabda for approval by the President. Lahoud will have 15 days, per law, to either approve or disapprove the package. If he approves, then the law will to the Parliament for ratification and if he does not approve, then at the end of the 15-day period, the Cabinet has the right to rescind the package from Baabda and send it straight to the Parliament for final ratification.

Starting Saturday, Lebanon will go through critical 17 days. And 17 days are long enough for any to wreak havoc with a course that will change our region's history.

"Nobody knows how many rebellions, besides political rebellions, ferment in the masses of life which people earth."

Tribunal Won't Immunize Lebanon From Violence

2006-11-22T00:38:00.000-05:00

It's 7:30AM now in Lebanon, 12:30AM here. The morning news back home do not point to any violence occurring over night.

A millions things are spinning in my head, yet I am so speechless.

The UN Security Council has unanimously passed the tribunal resolution, but in order for the process to be complete, the Lebanese government needs to ratify the resolution. The Cabinet meeting that was scheduled to take place on Thursday, is of course now postponed...

The passing of the tribunal in the UN does not mean that Lebanon is immune from more murders, from being held hostage to a looming civil strife.

This is where the international meets the local...almost always a bloody affair for our country.

"Nobody knows how many rebellions, besides political rebellions, ferment in the masses of life which people earth."

Afraid To Demonstrate

2006-11-21T17:51:00.000-05:00

So the March 14 Forces met in the Saifi Kataeb office this evening. They asked all March 14 supporters to attend en masse the late Pierre Gemayel's funeral on Thursday.

If I was back home, I would be reluctant to take part in the demonstrations on Thursday, for the fear things might just become violent. Things are not the way they were two years ago; now the situation is like a pressure-cooker, just ready to explode if given the chance to. The animosity is no longer entirely directed towards the Syrian forces, but now it's directed towards the other Lebanese.

Will the Lebanese be able to overcome the pressures and head out to demonstrate peacefully? I can feel the cry: Enough is enough. But as I wrote before, this tribunal when passed will become a milestone in the history of the Middle East. And I can totally understand why perhaps some regimes around us might see it disadvantageous to have the tribunal process move ahead and might just pull the plug on us and watch Lebanon return to chaos.

"Nobody knows how many rebellions, besides political rebellions, ferment in the masses of life which people earth."

The Second Independence Government

2006-11-21T13:33:00.000-05:00

In his latest press conference, PM Seniora called the current government the government of the Second Independence.

PM Seniora added: "My brother, Pierre, send my greetings to Rafik, to Bassil, to Samir, to George, to Gebran and to all those who died for freedom. You all did not die in vain, you did not die for a mirage, you died for a homeland, and Lebanon is our homeland."

Amen.

"Nobody knows how many rebellions, besides political rebellions, ferment in the masses of life which people earth."

Pierre Gemayel Shot Dead!

2006-11-21T10:18:00.000-05:00

Update 2: All roads leading to the Baabda Palace were closed in anticipation of an angry mob heading towards there.

Tires were lit on fire in Jbeil which led to the closing of the highway leading to Tripoli.

Update: Gemayel's bodyguard, Samir Shartooni, died of his wounds.

Details: Gemayel was leaving New Jdeideh where he was paying condolences St. Anthony-Jdeideh church. He was driving his Kia, accompanied by two others. 50 meters past the church, a car stopped and three men went down from the car and sprayed him with bullets.

Angry Phalangists are burning tires in front of the Kataeb headquarters in Saifi, Beirut. The Internal Security Forces blocked the road from Doura to Saifi.

PM Seniora is heading a Cabinet meeting right now.
********************************************************************************

Pierre Gemayel was shot dead! Is it a deja-vu? Our civil war in 1975 started with the Phalangists and here we are back to square one.

He was in his Kia in Jdeideh, when a Range Rover passed by and sprayed him with bullets. He's dead now. He's gone.

I don't know what's going to happen to our country. I'm at work and I'm scared of tomorrow.

"Nobody knows how many rebellions, besides political rebellions, ferment in the masses of life which people earth."

charging up...

2006-11-20T09:44:00.000-05:00

I can feel it from here. The fear. The venom. The hatred. I can hear the vitriol in the privacy of homes - it's so loud, it deafens me. If Lebanese were not polarized already, then today, after the speeches given by two of the country's top henchmen, there is no question about it. Druze, Shi'ites, Sunnis and Maronites, cluster together in ever-tighter circles. People ask each other whether they have armed themselves. Wait... what am I saying? They asked themselves that question almost a year ago... . I remember.

"God damn those Shi'as..."

"Those Druze are not even worth my slippers..."

"Who do those spineless Sunnis think they are?"

"We can finish those brutish Maronites..."

The ugly, raw Lebanon gradually rises to the surface as the icing falls off the rotten cake. Yet even if Lebanon manages to avoid stumbling into full-fledged violence this year, or the next, or a decade from now, the country's arrival to this point tears me apart. The fact that people allow themselves to be dragged to this point, embitters me even more.

But who am I kidding? These people... these non-individuals, face a tyranny of the majority that I doubt John Stuart Mill ever contended with. The power of the sect over the individual, I have come to realize, can only be overcome by flight. Lebanon, apparently, only supports sects. It remains as hospitable to individuals as the atmosphere of Mars is to life. And when the sect says you hate, you hate. When it says you like, you like. And lastly, when it tells you to fight, you fight.

good news for lebanese

2006-11-17T17:40:00.000-05:00

not all Lebanese, of course - that would be outright scandalous! Just a segment of the population. However, assuming that adult males constitute something like 35 percent of Lebanon's population, I would think this information impacts, say, 33 percent of Lebanese. Anyways, let me just cut to the point: a recent HealthDay article about the links between diet and cancer, said the following:

male smokers who eat foods containing high amounts of vitamin E – such as nuts, whole grains and green leafy vegetables – may have a decreased risk of developing tobacco-related cancers.

Ever wonder why your grand pa hasn't died of cancer yet even though he's 90 and he's been smoking since he was 13? Well, there you go! This little snippet of information could be Ghassan Tueini's secret of longevity. Take heed, and go stuff yourself with nuts!

my attitude is that i'm disgusted with the situation

2006-11-16T10:42:00.000-05:00

Lebanon's politicos/gangsters continue to take their orders, play their games of brinkmanship to impress their bosses, and bet on international developments, praying that the dice rolls in their favor.

As for international developments (the dice)... The Democratic electoral victory appears to have shaken things up a bit. How can you tell? Well, just read the headlines! "Berri says government is illegitimate," "Iran says the US and Israel will be defeated in Lebanon," "Hizballah rules out talks on Lebanon's political crisis," "Hope fades as Hizballah signals 'civil disobedience,'" " Syria ruled out of Iraq solution as state department looks to Iran," etc, etc...

Ahhh... how refreshing! some change for once! It appears as if the Iranians feel like they’ve got the Americans by the balls. The Democratic victory in the mid-term elections. The inevitable pressure on the Bush administration by the Republican Party to change course because the party would like to win the next round of elections and sees Middle East policy as a major obstacle. The Baker Commission and the rumored rise of the Realists at the expense of the Neocons within the administration itself - witness Rumsfeld's departure and the entrance of Robert Gates.

All of these developments apparently effect the Lebanese peasantry - yes, yes... I said peasantry. I figured citizenry is too generous a description. No, we're not citizens, we're all peasants. We're a collection of some of the most over-educated, over-confident, arrogant, spoilt, self-righteous, idiotic and oblivious peasant-groupings in the world. And we're so inept publicly and politically that we'd spend our time more valuably watching C-SPAN cover a Senate hearing on Medicare than watching our own daily news bulletins, or even discussing politics amongst ourselves.

In light of the aforementioned international developments, the "lords," as is their habit, continue to implement others' foreign policies on Lebanese soil. One grouping of them has just begun implementing the order to, as they say, raise the tempo. In the coming days, we'll see how far they are willing to go. We shall also see how the other grouping of idiots behaves now that they're the ones under pressure.

It's too bad this is happening. Lebanon's politicians have, quite literally, all the incentives in the world to follow the will of foreign patrons and absolutely no incentives to listen to their own people! How the hell do peasants act like citizens in such a miserable environment - even if they wanted to?

The Tribunal

2006-11-15T11:57:00.000-05:00

It is clear that the country is divided over the Hariri tribunal. Let's be honest and straightforward here: it's not about the failure of the last round of hiwar and it's not about the refusal of the majority to grant Hizbullah and co. the right to obstruct legislations tabled in Cabinet deliberations. It's about the international tribunal that will try those implicated in the assassination of former PM Hariri, MP Bassil Fleihan and all the other innocent lives that were claimed on that gloomy day of February 14, 2004.

If PM Seniora and the majority in the Cabinet were vindicated two days ago by managing to pass the tribunal's draft resolution; today's newspapers write that President Lahoud is refusing to acknowledge that move. Technically, it is not required that the President ratify the proposal at the moment; at a later stage though his signature will be required. And frankly, it does not bode well for those who want to see justice followed through, and for the first time in our history, on such a crime.

Just think about the precedent this tribunal will set for us and for our children moving forward. Just think about all those who were assassinated throughout the years, not only in Lebanon, but also around the Arab world, and we never learned who committed the crime.

It is apparent that Lahoud and Hizbullah are against the tribunal, despite all the chatter in the media that that's not the case. And even despite MP Saad Hariri's words in an interview yesterday claiming that Hizbullah has no hand in his father's assassination. I mean, first, he is not supposed to reveal what he knows regarding the investigations. Second, do you think by saying that we are more comforted or their resignation and upping the ante in their rhetoric at the particular moment of tabling the resolution is justified?

I don't need a politician to dissuade me from increasing suspicions that those who are opposing the tribunal have some connection to the crime. And perhaps Rafiq Hariri's crime was that he wanted to break with Syria and to discuss the disarmament of Hizbullah.

What's missing in the political discourse is a reason given by Nasrallah and Lahoud of why they oppose the tribunal. Instead what we get is holier than thou rhetoric that is leading our country down to the abyss.

"Nobody knows how many rebellions, besides political rebellions, ferment in the masses of life which people earth."

the illusion of a state and of a people

2006-11-15T09:18:00.000-05:00

a friend of mine continues to march on the long and winding journey that ends with a doctorate in political studies. He is not Lebanese. However, his subject constitutes those of us in this world who identify ourselves as Lebanese - (ouch!). This blond, blue-eyed man wants to understand us... wants to comprehend what this notion of "Lebaneseness" means to us. I can only cheer him on.

Around a week ago, he sent me a link to a webpage on which an essay written by AUB sociology professor Nabil Dajani was published. Dajani's subject: Lebanon's television broadcasting stations. More specifically, their role in the Lebanese political process as well as their impact on Lebanese society.

The professor's conclusions were obvious. However his putting them in words, and within the template of an academic study makes them that much more profound. He argues, the role of television stations in the political process is top-down in nature: a tool of the elites. Contrast this portrayal with the role of media institutions in more civilized political systems (where, if you are not aware, the media constitutes a tool of accountability) and feel the pain!

As for the impact of television stations on Lebanese society, Dajani claims they serve to reinforce sectarian divisions. He cites the selective flow and witholding of information or disinformation based on sectarian audiences as the main reason. Ultimately, Lebanese who watch different channels see their worlds through different and, sometimes, dangerously contradictory prisms.

Dajani's conclusion:

The problematic nature of television and other mass media in Lebanon lies in a flawed visualization of the meaning of freedom. It does not lie in the issue of censorship or lack of a free media environment. This distorted visualization of feedom plays into the hands of private interests that both override and overwhelm social responsibility.

Here are some more pertinent quotes for your enjoyment.

Concerning television's penetration into Lebanese houeholds, Dajani writes,

Television dominates the flow of information in Lebanon. According to recent figures by an authoritative study, about 65 percent of Lebanese adults view two to four hours per day, and about 82 percent of the population views television on a daily basis, while 95 percent watch television, but not regularly... . In 2003, terrestrial television penetration was at approximately 99 percent of all households.

Concerning the effect of Lebanon's television stations on relationships amongst Lebanese of different sects, he noted,

Television has both helped maintain the divisions that exist within the society and contributed to the alienation of the average individual. Indeed, inasmuch as Lebanese television typically appeals to individual sects and ethnic groups within the country, it helps to sustain the condition of sectarian and ethnic division.

Concerning the public square,

citizens remain ignorant of how their political affairs are handled. Because of their ignorance, they are powerless. Consequently, we are today witnessing in Lebanon a media situation that in fact contributes to the re-feudalization of the public sphere.

Concerning freedom (in fact, his hypothesis),

The problematic nature of television and other mass media in Lebanon lies in a flawed visualization of the meaning of freedom. It does not lie in the issue of censorship or lack of a free media environment. This distorted visualization of freedom plays into the hands of private interests that both override and overwhelm social responsibility. Censorship is no longer the most useful lens through which to focus on the subject of freedom of expression. A better means of focusing on freedom of expression is the subject of human rights, particularly the right of the individual to communicate in order to improve the quality of her or his life and to practice true democracy.

Contradictions And Old Games

2006-11-14T02:14:00.000-05:00

Interestingly enough, both Ministers Charles Rizk and Ya'coub Sarraf are closely affiliated with President Lahoud, to be more exact, were chosen to take part in the Cabinet as his representatives, yet Sarraf decided to turn in his resignation on the eve of voting to authorize the Hariri tribunal, while Rizk stayed behind to vote for that landmark legislation.

Ya'coub Sarraf, as the former Beirut Governor when PM Hariri was assassinated, has a lot to lose from enacting the tribunal. His name many times was brought up when discussing construction/maintenance permits that he authorized before and around the time Hariri was assassinated back in February 2004.

The question is why didn't Rizk resign as well? Him staying behind did in effect provide a rather more legitimate face to the currently-paralyzed Cabinet. Perhaps his position as the Justice Minister renders it hypocritical to opt out when such an important legislation is being put on the table for ratification.

Another puzzling move was how Berri approved the resignations of his Ministers, yet still considered the process of voting for the tribunal with six Ministers missing on the table as constitutional and legitimate (as opposed to Lahoud and Aoun touting the government as defunct). I wonder how much more Berri can squeeze out of taking a clear position; he's been trying to be on everyone's side, but it's proving to be a haggard game, almost like a deja-vu and it gets boring.

At any rate, it only seems like it's the beginning of some end. Nothing bodes well. If PM Seniora was able to approve the Hariri tribunal, then Hizbullah/Amal/FPM still have the Parliament to bring about further pressure on the current system.

We'll wait and see.

"Nobody knows how many rebellions, besides political rebellions, ferment in the masses of life which people earth."

the boxing match

2006-11-13T09:50:00.000-05:00

The boxing match continues. Except the boxers (both of whom wear shorts with the Lebanese colors) continue to shout at each other, and occasionally get beat up by supposed spectators from outside the ring. Actually, a better analogy would be a cock fight – and, again, every once-in-a-while the owner of one of the birds punches the his adversary's on the head.

As for the cocks themselves, well… as with the boxing analogy, they haven’t pecked at each other yet. Except, they stand by gleefully and watch the beating their opponent gets.

Come to think of it, the animals manifest a very Lebanese kind of behavior! Those of you who happened to be male, and who grew up in Lebanon know exactly what I mean. I’m referring to the fight between two guys or “2urtas.” I'm referring to the telephone calls, the shouting and screaming, the "hold me backs" because "I'm gonna $*%& him up" and finally, the hope of all involved that somebody else (anybody) would just come and do the beating for them.

So the elite in Lebanon – along with their hot-blooded moronic buffoons (a.k.a. followers) – posture and wait. They pray that they don’t have to fight, but desire, with equal intensity, that their adversary somehow yields.

For her part, the average Lebanese just sits, watches and tries to avoid getting hurt in the fracas. She tosses her hopes and concerns into the toilet. She watches the elite and prays to God that they don’t step beyond the threshold. And lastly, she makes preparations for the worst.

the lord or the end?

2006-09-29T21:03:00.000-05:00

"your men, my lord, will follow you to whatever end."

is that asserssion genuine? What do we long for? The end or the lord?

How do we select this lord? How does he become our lord?

What role does the lord play in defining the end that we seek?

How does kinship impact our decision?

a little introspection

2006-09-25T23:46:00.000-05:00

It amazes me how those of us who like to think of ourselves (or present ourselves) as above sectarianism, never the less, cannot seem to escape from the sectarian pull or grip. Very few bloggers blog as Maronites, Sunna, Shi’a, Druze, Orthodox or as representatives of other sects. Most of us wrap the Lebanese flag around ourselves and suggest to each other that our voices are those of independent free-thinkers, who are able to transcend our sectarian folds and reach out to one-another as Lebanese. Yet, although we refuse to identify ourselves as sectarian partisans, openly promoting the interests of our respective leaders (we are obviously above such behavior), we consistently appear to carry the banners of the causes adopted by those very men. As such, we as individuals sum up to not much more, in an intellectual sense, than those high school drop-outs who make a living as bullies and thugs, roaming the streets to enforce the wills of their respective patrons.

Every one of us ought to remember that one of the main tasks of a politician is to define the boundaries of, and lay out the details of what constitutes “appropriate” political discourse. Therefore, we, as Lebanese do not need to come out and scream: “Druze Power!” or “Shi’a Power!” or articulate similar overt sectarian gestures. Fortunately/Unfortunately (however way you wish to see it), much more subtle means of practicing sectarianism exists; one of which being, acquiescence to the boundaries and rules of political discourse set by our sectarian leaders – all we effectively do is translate their words to English.

To give a very obvious example, a battle between two discourses exists in Lebanon today: one that asserts that the last war was a catastrophe for Lebanon, and another that characterizes it as an unprecedented victory. The level of consistency whereby bloggers of certain sects (and I know quite a few, including, of course, myself) took the side of their particular sectarian leader was frightening. This reality begs the following question:

Are we Lebanese Citizens who, like shoppers in a competitive market, have the power and judgment to choose among the different discourses displayed to us? Or are we, unbeknownst to ourselves, partisans who merely justify and promote the discourses of leaders based on sectarian kinship?

I think that bloggers need to step back, take a moment, and answer these questions. For ultimately, doing so will help us realize whether we are merely peddlers or Citizens.

In answering those questions, I suggest asking another: What is it that I would like Lebanon to be, or to look like in the near (and not-so-near future)? I need to know what it is I want, and therefore, what it is I expect before I can judge politicians and their discourse. Inevitably, we all have our unique answers because we are all different – but I doubt the differences are enough to justify the dramatically polarizing (and sometimes, unnatural) political choices we have made.

why hugo chavez bothers me...

2006-09-22T23:02:00.000-05:00

dear hani g. and fga,

I'm tipsy. I have a glass of black label in me (thanks to Lazarus's inspiring example), and I have decided to respond to your critical comments regarding my deriding depiction of Hugo Chavez.

By the way, you-all should watch "All The Kings Men." Great movie!

Anyways, I actually left home thinking about your comments, and promised that I would respond. Of course, the both of you are dear to me, so maybe that is why your comments have taken such a toll. Anyways, here goes:

I cannot bring myself to support a demagogue dictator-in-the-making (if not already so) like hugo chavez.

Foreign policy-wise, his drive against the US is almost maniacal, and definitely comes at the expense of Venezuelan interests. For Example: He goes and signs deals with China to export crude because he wants to decrease his country's dependence on the US market (as if the US itself were not equally dependent on his oil).

Well, guess what? That shift comes at a price! The dude has to pay god-knows-how-much-more to ship the crude to China (including the exorbitant fees of using the Panama Canal). That money could have went into the Venezuelan economy, or maybe into programs to help Venezuela's poor. But instead, The Benevolent Shepherd is burning it because he wants to slay el Diablo.

Have either of you heard of the news that Chavez is increasing the amount of subsidized heating oil available to "America's poor?" (I use quotation marks because I wonder what kind of infrastructure Chavez has in the US to actually determine his oil is going to the targeted populace). Well, if you haven't, then you should know that he has doubled the amount of heating oil available to poor americans from 400,000 barrels to a million this winter.

Of course, our immediate response is, "wow, what a manyak!" That Hugo! He's definitely sticking it to the American elite! But, weigh that "policy" against opportunity costs, and then maybe it would appear to be a tad wasteful.

It is no surprise at all, that analysts are saying that Venezuela has the most to lose from low oil prices. As a matter of fact, Venezuela's representative at OPEC has consistently called for decreasing the supply of crude in order to raise prices. When I say consistently, I don't just mean over the past couple of weeks, during which oil prices have declined; I actually mean over the past several months.

Finally, ask yourselves this: if elections were held tomorrow in Venezuela, and Hugo loses, do you actually think he would leave office?

I am all for systems and institutions. Demagogues irk me! And Hugo is no exception to that rule.

I'm sorry, I just had to post this...

2006-09-20T17:17:00.000-05:00

How does that saying go? A picture's worth a thousand words? Well, this one may be worth a little more.

A 19 year old, and her lesson

2006-09-19T23:03:00.000-05:00

Several days ago a pregnant 19 year-old was kidnapped by her parents. They planned to take their daughter to an abortion clinic, where they would do the obvious to the fetus - whose father was locked up in some prison.

To cut the story short, the lady eventually escaped from her parents and called 911. Policemen eventually arrived at the scene and arrested the couple, who now face the prospect of spending up to 15 years behind bars (a somewhat ironic outcome, if you ask me).

I look at this story, and my immediate reaction is a conflicted one. On the one hand, I ask: how could any son or daughter take actions that could lead to his or her parents’ imprisonment. On the other, I ask how the parents could have taken actions that would push their daughter to take such extreme measures.

I wonder what kind of reactions such a fiasco would garner in Lebanon. Actually I know the reactions: They would range from, “why didn’t the parents kill the girl when she eloped in the first place?” to “the girl should have listened to her parents and not resisted because they know what’s best for her.”

What intrigues me most though is the actual arrest of the parents – and what such an action symbolizes. Here, we have one coercive force in society (the police) thwarting the will of another coercive force (the parents, and by extension, the institution of the family). By listening to the daughter, the police ultimately took her side and protected her from her parents (who we should not forget, believed that they were doing what was best for her).

All other considerations aside, this case is one where the individual trumped the collective – where the traditional notion of “parents knowing better” or “deferral to the elderly” succumbed to the modern notions of (and accompanying) individualism.

Lebanese who so desperately wish to break free from the bonds of sectarianism need to keep this story in mind. Too many of these individuals tackle sectarianism as intellectuals, and deal with merely the abstractions of the matter. Ultimately, although such efforts are noble and based on good intensions, tackling “the problem” of sectarianism can be boiled down to simply breaking the will of parents on the most intimate of issues – and doing so confidently. Of course, it would also be nice to have the backing of a coercive element whenever the need for one arises - as it did in the case I wrote about above.

Time to go back to the basics

2006-09-17T12:42:00.000-05:00

We need a Lebanese political process that yields political decisions that all Lebanese parties and individuals abide by. I do not care how sacred certain Lebanese believe their missions or causes to be. I do not even care how unjust they believe a certain situation is. The Primary rationale, or reason behind any action (a reason that supersedes all others) must be that it is a product of the Lebanese political process.

Lebanon. Lebanon. Lebanon.

What I have despised (and I mean utterly despised) about Hizballah, and its behavior over the past two years has been its arrogance, and its insistence on taking the entire country on a direction that it deems as right. The party (and its supporters) scoff at the Lebanese political system and pay lip-service to whatever existing processes exist for the country to reach some sort of consensus over the its fate. Their motto has been: it's my way or the highway, and they have the guns to give that phrase re-enforced meaning.

When a plural majority in Lebanon decides that it is time to disengage from a conflict, then Lebanon must disengage from that conflict. In such cases... disengaging would be the "Lebanese" thing to do. When the Lebanese political process (however imperfect it may be) yields a decision to change course, then not changing course would run contrary to "Lebanese interests." For all of its faults, Lebanon’s political process is the only mechanism currently available that can yield national decisions. That process manifests Lebanon on the political plain, just like how the Lebanese Army manifests Lebanon on the military one.

The natural inclination of individuals is to assume that notions such as "Lebanese interests" are set in stone - i.e. Lebanon's interests have always been to do this or do that. This assumption could not be farther from the truth. Notions such as national interests are subject to debates, discussions, and ultimately decisions (decisions that all parties must accept, and abide by).

Truly “Lebanese” interests can only be the product of such processes. In Lebanon the process remains at its infancy; however, it already favors pluralism. Such a bias is a good start. Lebanese should build on those foundations, if they would like to help bring a “Political Lebanon” to life.

A Discourse of Immorality

2006-09-13T06:15:00.000-05:00

So I refused to write for a while, just wanted to wait, wait until something worthy of commenting on appears on the Lebanese political arena. I didn't want to rush to conclusions or make faulty judgements. I wanted to see where the country will head after the war.

More and more the divide in the country grows; it's a divide on the vision. PM Seniora in his efforts during the war to reach out to the international community was successful, successful in pushing to end the Israeli aggression, successful in garnering plenty of funds to kickstart the reconstruction effort, and successful on a diplomatic level to set a course for the country following the war. His efforts reminded me of the late PM Hariri in 1996 when he rallied the world during the Israeli Grapes of Wrath campaign and manged to coin a new term for our resistance then, the Lebanese resistance.

Right after the war, Aoun unleashed a scathing attack on the Cabinet, then the "choir" followed. But the most significant of the calls for dismantling the government came from Hizbullah the past three days. Yesterday Sayyid Nasrallah accused Seniora of immoral acts and of colluding with the enemy on Al-Jazeera. I wonder what the vieweres were thinking while they watched Sayyid Nasrallah. Perhaps they were conflicted because Seniora was also a hero during that war in his own right. How easily people forget....

At any rate, Al-Mustaqbal daily today published an article reminding Sayyid Nasrallah that if Seniora's reception of Britich PM Tony Blair was immoral, then what about Qatar, for instance? Qatar, which her Emir's visit to Lebanon was trumpeted by Hizbullah, hosted on its airport runways the first batch of smart bombs that headed to Israel before the war.

Again, if Sayyid Nasrallah considered Seniora's reception of Blair as hurtful to many's feelings, then what about when Nasrallah presented a submachine gun as a gift to the Syrian Head of Intelligence in Lebanon Rustom Ghazaleh on the eve of their troop withdrawal from Lebanon, ignoring the feelings of many Lebanese who considered the Syrian regime as the culprit in PM Hariri's assassination (to say the least).

What about also when Parliament Speaker Berri, as Hizbullah's representative during the war (as claimed by Hizbullah then), met with U.S. State Secretary Condoleeza Rice while the fighting was still ongoing? Couldn't we consider that a meeting between the U.S. and Hizbullah? Wouldn't that be immoral in Sayyid Nasrallah's eyes?

When immorality becomes a concept used widely in political rhetoric, then in my view the political discourse has regressed to a dangerously low level, regressed to the olden days. And we all remember what those days were like....

"Nobody knows how many rebellions, besides political rebellions, ferment in the masses of life which people earth."

The problem with regimes like the one ruling Syria...

2006-09-12T06:57:00.000-05:00

...is you never know what to believe.

Apparently 4 terrorists attempted to detonate a bomb that was placed in a van outside of the American embassy in Damascus. Reuters reports that,

Four men shouting religious slogans tried to blow up the U.S. embassy in Damascus on Tuesday but their car bomb failed to go off and Syrian security guards killed three of them in a shootout... .

Syrian state television said the attackers had tried but failed to detonate a car bomb.

The nature of the Syrian regime makes such acts highly improbable unless they are sponsored or supported by one of its many tentacles.

I was at a beach in Southern Lebanon

2006-09-11T21:24:00.000-05:00

I'll never forget that phone call.

Some sane voices speaking up in the region...

2006-09-08T14:18:00.000-05:00

In Iran, one of the highest-ranking Shi'a clerics openly spoke against Khamenei's drive to attain nuclear weapons. Of course, if you asked Khamenei, he would tell you that Iran is only interested in nuclear energy. Moreover, whoever said that the highest ranking clerics were the most influential decision makers? I wonder how Iraq would have turned out, for example, if Sistani actually had real power. Anyways, the AFP reports,

The development of nuclear weapons goes against the teachings of the Islamic faith, a senior Iranian cleric said Friday in an interview with Portugal's Lusa news agency.

"The nuclear bomb goes against Islam. Including producing and storing it. To use it would be much worse," Grand Ayatollah Yusuf Saanei, 79, told the agency at his seminary at Qom, Iran's clerical capital just south of Tehran.

"If the government wants to produce this type of weapons it is going against Islam," he added.

Iran failed to meet an August 31 deadline set out by the United Nations Security Council to stop enriching uranium, which Washington says is aimed at producing nuclear weapons but which Tehran says is to fulfill civilian energy needs.

Saanei, one of five senior clerics in Qom, Iran's spiritual nerve center, is known for his pro-reform positions. He has called for dialogue with the West and has issued rulings banning workplace discrimination against women.

On another front, King Abdullah of Jordan is beginning to make some noise with regards to peace in the region. He was interviewed by TIME magazine, and in essense, said that peace-makers of the region have been sidelined for the past several years. He offered an ominous warning to hawks in both the US and Israel. Reuters reports,

The world will be "doomed" to years of violence in the Middle East if there is no major effort by 2007 to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Jordan's King Abdullah warned in an interview published on Thursday.
"I believe the Lebanese war dramatically opened all our eyes to the fact that if we don't solve the Palestinian issue, the future looks pretty bleak for the Middle East," the monarch told Time magazine.

Blair is nothing more than a lame duck. Olmert is heading in that direction. However, they both seem to agree with the king of Jordan, and appear to be taking the necessary steps to ameliorate the problem. The AP reports,

Israeli government spokeswoman Miri Eisin said Friday that although the agenda for Blair's meeting with Olmert had yet to be set, the two men were likely to discuss options for resuming peace efforts with the Palestinians.

And finally, I wish to point out a development that is more insane than sane: It appears that Morocco is a new runner-up to developing "nuclear energy" capabilities. Frankly, and politics aside, this new global interest in nuclear energy is scaring me. Forget nuclear weapons. Just the fact that people have no clue of what to do with the waste generated by nuclear power plants should give people enough reason to think twice. Anyways, read and weep!

Russia's state-owned nuclear power company said on Thursday that it would bid to build Morocco's first nuclear plant, while Russian President Vladimir Putin signed co-operation deals with the Moroccan king as part of an economic mission to expand Russia's African reach.

The right kind of noise?

2006-09-08T01:04:00.000-05:00

The AP reports,

Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has signaled that Israel might cede the disputed Chebaa Farms area to Lebanon if the Lebanese carry out all provisions of their cease-fire with Israel, including the disarming of Hezbollah guerrillas, Israeli media reported on Friday.

In a meeting with Russian Minister Sergey Lavrov on Wednesday, Olmert said if the U.N. decides the area is Lebanese, and if Lebanon implements U.N. resolutions ending the war, "we'll agree to discuss it," the Haaretz newspaper
said.
... .

Is this just noise? Or is it a signal that things are moving in a direction that we all want them to move? Past experience has taught me to believe the former.

Besides, it's nothing new. The Lebanese Prime Minister has repeatedly suggested a similar exchange - except, in reverse sequence. Can Kofi resolve this sequencing problem, as he apparently did a few days ago?

On The Bright Side Of Things

2006-09-07T11:12:00.000-05:00

On the brighter side, I read in an article yesterday that, "If peace holds, Standard Chartered Bank forecasts 7 percent GDP growth in Lebanon next year," Monica Malik, an economist with Standard Chartered Bank in Dubai said.

One of the main reasons for such an optimistic assessment is that, "the Gulf harbors a financial interest in a quick Lebanese comeback. Companies in Kuwait and the U.A.E. have invested nearly $2 billion in real estate projects," and are projected to spearhead the investment comeback when international investors return to the country.

Most of the aid that has poured into Lebanon will be set to cover most of the direct damage. "Much of the emergency aid will be used to clear unexploded Israeli bombs, shelter the homeless and restore social services."

Another conference will be held this year for long-term reconstruction aid. I look forward to that conference when perhaps then the government will have a more solid reconstruction plan that will start Lebanon anew on the path to full sovereignty.

The most critical condition for all this to take place is of course holding the peace. It's a conflict inside me always: if we want to concentrate on the economy, then stability is important, but politically stability might mean maintaining a status quo that does not resolve standing, "explosive" issues in our country. That's where I hope that we can attain both a quick economic boost and a lasting resolution to those explosive issues.

"Nobody knows how many rebellions, besides political rebellions, ferment in the masses of life which people earth."

Lebanon in shambles

2006-09-07T09:41:00.000-05:00

Lebanon's Debt-to-GDP ratio has now officially topped 200 percent!

The debt at the beginning of 2006 was $38.6 billion. Today, it is projected to be around $41 billion.

Lebanese officials estimate that Lebanon's GDP shrunk by around 8 percent to $18 billion.

For their part, certain Business groups have estimated that the war cost Lebanon $7 to $8 billion in direct and indirect losses.

The Stockholm conference pledged approximately $2 billion.

And the money pours in...

2006-09-06T22:23:00.000-05:00

It all began with a competition over who would offer more mulla to the thousands of Lebanese whose homes were destroyed during the one-month-long Israeli offensive. Hizballah offered $12,000, the international community responded by pooling their resources together and offering $40,000.

Then, Lebanon's billionaire politicians started to compete over who would re-build the destroyed bridges that the Israelis so generously targeted "to prevent Hizballah from re-arming itself." They publicly selected their favorite bridges and promised to fork over the funds necessary to rebuild them - on condition that the bridges be named after them, once constructed.

Then, a new competition emerged: which country in the region would rebuild entire villages. Qatar, I think, started it. Several days ago, it declared its intention to rebuild Bint-Jbeil. Next came our wonderful neighbor to our east and north, which declared that it would rebuild three or four other villages... .

And now, this: The Saudis have offered to pay the dues and fees of all Lebanese students attending public schools "at all levels."

This is all very generous, and I am sure the recipients are more than greatful for it. However, please excuse me for being a bit cynical!

So now that the Saudis have offered to pay for public schooling, what's next? Cell phone bills? Will the Iranians offer to pay all the cell phone bills that Lebanese accumulated over the month-long offensive?

Lebanon continues to be an open field where regional and global powers play their soccer matches. When they throw cash at us, its all nice and dandy, however, we are the last ones they consult when they decide to convert those dollar bills into katyusha rockets and cluster bombs.

Jamal's Trip Beyond Bint Jbeil

2006-09-06T13:30:00.000-05:00

Please read about Jamal's trip Beyond Bint Jbeil. Thank you Jamal for the coverage!

"Nobody knows how many rebellions, besides political rebellions, ferment in the masses of life which people earth."

Israel's blockade, and Kofi's plan

2006-09-06T06:02:00.000-05:00

The New York Times reported today that governments in the region have conveyed to Kofi Annan that the “single biggest impediment to beginning the restoration of Lebanon” is the Israeli blockade. The reason the Israelis give for not lifting it is the fact that they don’t see the UN force that is currently deployed as capable of filling the vacuum they will leave behind. Most noticeably the German fleet that is supposed to patrol the shores of Lebanon is set to arrive two weeks from now.

But Kofi has come up with a plan,

Under the plan, Mr. Chirac's announcement would bring an immediate dispatch of French, Italian and Greek vessels to patrol for two weeks, the time needed for a promised German fleet to arrive.

The second step is a letter to Mr. Annan from Fouad Siniora, the Lebanese prime minister, formally authorizing the Germans to take up their positions off Lebanon.

The third and final step that Mr. Annan hopes for is an announcement that Israel will lift the blockade.

Mr. Siniora and Ehud Olmert...have disagreed on the sequence of events, Mr. Annan said. Mr. Siniora wants Israel to end its blockade before he authorizes the German assignment, Mr. Annan said. But he said Mr. Olmert had told him Israel would lift the blockade only after word that the Germans were officially committed.

I'm just wondering why Seniora is stonewalling on the formal authorization of the German commitment to fulfilling resolution 1701. Why this posturing over semantics?

French sending in the heavy equipment

2006-09-05T18:54:00.000-05:00

The French don't appear to be too optimistic about the stability of the cease fire in Lebanon. According to certain press reports, they're sending in heavy equipment along with their troops into Southern Lebanon. The "package" includes heavy tanks and radar designed to track the source of artillery fire. The AP reports,

France is quietly preparing to play a tougher role in the strengthened U.N. peacekeeping force in Lebanon, rolling out hefty tanks, powerful artillery, and sophisticated radar systems to pinpoint artillery launch sites.

French Leclerc tanks will be some of the mightiest vehicles deployed under the U.N. flag - an answer to critics who have moaned about toothless, ineffectual U.N. peacekeeping deployments over the years.

...

Heavy armor such as the Leclerc is not typically part of the force deployment package for a U.N. peacekeeping operation, although battle tanks have been used in past missions. Attack helicopters, for example, have been deployed for the biggest U.N. peacekeeping mission in Congo.
Thirteen Leclerc tanks were expected to arrive by rail from central France to the port of Toulon early Wednesday, before being sent across the Mediterranean to Lebanon in the next several days.
...

France is also sending four 155mm surface-to-surface AUF1 canons, with a range of up to 17 miles, plus armored vehicles, short-range anti-aircraft missiles, and Cobra radar which can pinpoint artillery fire in a range of up to 25 miles.

The sad reality on the ground in Lebanon is that there isn't really a resolution to any of the crises that the country currently faces. Everything appears to be hanging in limbo, and this UN force only serves to emphasize that point. Whereas the "national dialogue" proved to be nothing more than a farce, at least Lebanese had a sense that a political solution to the deadlock was possible. Today... even that fragile but valuable mirage has dissipated.

The bane of rising petrostates and their coming demise

2006-09-05T16:00:00.000-05:00

One of the most unfortunate products of the world economic order today are regimes that posses an inordinate amount of power (within the territories they control and internationally), simply because they have managed to secure control of oil that just so happened to lay underneath the ground they control. These regimes do not have to stimulate their societies to produce any sort of economic output of value that they can sell to the global market - why should they? They sell oil! In fact, all these regimes know how to do is to buy their place in power, to use their wealth to suppress their societies, and to enjoy an almost tragically prominent role in international affairs.

The biggest losers in this arrangement are the individual members of societies that live under these petro-regimes. Some of them may live comfortably, relative to global standards, but they live empty lives nonetheless.

Saudi Arabia and the gulf states would be nothing but the arid hinterland of a dramatically different Middle East. Whatever regime that ruled Iran would be a much more accountable one since it would depend so much more on Iranian society for its wealth as opposed to oil wells. Hugo Chavez would not exist, and the Russian state might have been forced to cave into the demands of Russian society. All of these realities may have been realized had the developed world not depended so critically on oil.

What reassures me though is evidence that this oil bonanza is only short lived. ~~Tens~~ Hundreds of billions of dollars have been invested in new infrastructure projects and upgrades, billions more have been invested in technologies that increase energy efficiency and provide economies with alternatives to crude oil.

Exxon Mobil's CEO recently claimed that he expected the demand for gasoline in the United States to decrease in the coming 25 years as a result of increased levels of efficiency. Technologies that convert coal to oil are beginning to get the kind of attention they deserve, and the money they need to become more economically feasible. Other technologies that convert oil shale to oi l are also gaining prominence (the United States has the largest reserves of both oil shale and coal in the world).

All of these improvements and more will take years to yield any sort of tangible results. However, investors are already making decisions based on oil prices of $40/barrel, and prices have declined steadily over the past two weeks, to the dismay of some who wish for pertpetually high prices. And despite all the talk of unyielding competition between the United States and China, both powers have at least one common interest that they work in concert to realize: cheap energy for their growing economies.

The ultimate outcome is becoming clearer for all to see: oil prices will ultimately plummet. The petro-regimes that will survive relatively unscathed are those that are currently investing their windfall profits in non-oil related sectors of their economies. The petro-regimes that will crash and burn are those that are burning their petro-dollars in misguided dreams of regional military domination and economically unsustainable policies of buying popular approval.

Do I see the end of petro-regimes on earth? No. Especially in the short run, during which oil prices will remain volatile thanks to environmental and political factors. However, in the long run, I am beginning to see a clear and indisputable emerging reality that is very unfriendly to such regimes. I only hope is that this reality manifests itself sooner rather than later - i.e. in five, as opposed to ten or twenty five years.

Be Clear About What You Stand For

2006-09-05T10:47:00.000-05:00

This caricature depicts the way I feel about Qatar.

Who are we kidding ourselves by believing that the Qatari Airlines defied the Israeli air blockade by venturing out to Beirut yesterday? The Washington Post here reported that the Qataris got clearance prior to the trip from Israel.

It's interesting to see that a gulf country, other than the typical Saudi Arabia, is dabbling with politics, which usually gulf countries like to eschew. Gulf countries are always known to send money, not troops nor emissaries. But Qatar, apart from Al-Jazeera, wants to carve out for itself a place on the table.

I say, Great! But the downside is that Qatar just doesn't know what it stands for.

First, Qatar being a current member on the UN Security Council opposed UNSCR 1701, yet it just decided to send some 200 to 500 troops as part of the beefed-up UNIFIL peacekeeping force in the south (a la 1701).

Second, Al-Jazeera was one of the first Arab channels to interview Sayyid Nasrallah during the month-long war and has even dubbed that war the "Sixth War" and of course has openly supported Hizbullah in its war with Israel, unlike Saudi for instance. Yet on the other hand, Qatar is sending its troops to the south as part of an effort that consolidates the Lebanese state's control over its territories.

Third, Qatar has attempted at bridging the divide between Syria and Lebanon by taking up a mediator role of sorts taking the side of Syria, yet at the same time, I hear rumors circulating that Qatar is mediating secretly between Syria and Israel. Wow!

Fourth, the "defying the blockade" incident when Qatar has gotten Israel's permission, knowing very well that both countries cooperate economically.

And so this goes straight to the puzzling question in my mind: Al-Jazeera's political stands versus Qatar's diplomatic relations with Israel. A contradiction. It's none of my business to question any country's policies, heck, most Arab countries have such double standards shouting, "Hey look at me!", but out of concern, you cannot dabble in everything, you're a political novice, thank you for your efforts, but be clear about what you stand for lest you lose your credibility.

"Nobody knows how many rebellions, besides political rebellions, ferment in the masses of life which people earth."

The other war

2006-09-05T07:32:00.000-05:00

If Afghanistan is the war that nobody notices thanks to the mayhem in Iraq, then Syria's war on Lebanon can now be characterized in a similar fashion. Except in Lebanon, both battle zones actually over-lap. Lucky Lebanon!

Naharnet reports,

A senior police intelligence officer, involved in the investigation into ex-Premier Rafik Hariri's murder, survived an assassination bombing ambush with minor injuries in southern Lebanon Tuesday.
Media reports said Lt. Col. Samir Shehade was moderately injured in the explosion, which went off as his car drove by the village of Rmaileh, near the southern port city of Sidon. He was taken to the Hammoud hospital in Sidon, and hospital officials said his condition was stable.

Security officials said four aides and bodyguards were killed and another five were wounded in the attack.

Shehade is deputy chief of the intelligence department in Lebanon's internal security force.

Interior Minister Ahmed Fatfat said Shehade was involved last year in the arrest of four generals accused of involvement in ex-Premier Rafik Hariri's assassination. The four are Brig. Gen. Jamil Sayyed, Brig. Gen. Ali Hajj, Brig. Gen. Raymond Azar and Brig. Gen. Mustafa Hamdan.

The Lebanese Internal Security Forces are considered the most loyal security apparatus to the Lebanese government - i.e. the current governing coalition. This attack should be seen in light of the string of assassinations and bombings that have transpired since the attempted murder of MP Marwan Hamade, around two years ago. The bombing should also be seen in light of the recent political offensive carried out by Syria's allies in Lebanon to undermine the government. Fellow blogger Abu Kais has dealt with those particular developments comprehensively. I recommend you pay him a visit.

One step away from picking his toes

2006-09-05T00:08:00.000-05:00

hat-tip, Firas.

RE: Dissapointed

2006-09-02T04:29:00.000-05:00

I received an e-mail from a regular visitor to the blog yesterday, that conveyed his dissapointment concerning my recent positions regarding the conflict in Lebanon and the region in general. His e-mail was long and articulate, so I decided to return the favor and explain myself.

The result was a "piece," which after some consideration, I decided to post on this blog. So maybe others who are wondering the same will understand a little more. Anyways, here goes:

Daniel,

Thanks for the long e-mail. I will try to explain to you why I a write the way I do. Before I do, though, I would like to say one thing about myself. At one point of my life (as a child), I admired Saddam Hussein's challenge to the West; I was (and still am) proud of what the Arab armies accomplished in 1973, and I even sided with the Russians during the cold war. I want you to know this about me because I do not wish for you to think that I am not conflicted, and have not really thought about my positions with regards to everything that is transpiring in Lebanon and the Middle East .

Conflicts are always multi-layered, and multi-dimensional. The recent battle in Lebanon is no different [I say battle because it is merely one chapter in a long war that goes back to (in Lebanon at least) the first Palestinian operations launched from the South]. The conflict in Lebanon , today, consists of a local layer, a regional layer and an international one. I don't think I need to explain each one to you because you seem like you're a well-informed individual. As for dimensions, I see a conflict between two visions of how people ought to live their lives, a sectarian conflict, a conflict between established elites and up and coming counter elites, and a conflict between two solutions to the Arab-Israeli conflict.
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I will delve a little into the dimensions of this conflict:

Visions of how individuals should live their lives:

Hizballah's vision is clear because the organization is transparent about it. For as long as I can remember, Hizballah has proclaimed its goal of creating what it calls a “culture of resistance.” So what does that mean? Essentially, a “culture of resistance” means a population that, in one way or another, takes part in a military struggle. A culture of resistance, in other words, means: a militarized culture that, in Hizballah’s case, is founded on Islamic Doctrine and the Sharia. You are probably wondering why I am against this since I do not appear to be a Shi’ite myself. Well, my answer to you is that such a vision inherently contradicts the vision (or idea) of Lebanon itself – which is a republic founded on modern principles (albeit, imperfectly translated on the ground). Another reason I am vehemently against a militarized culture is because such a culture needs an enemy, and Hizballah does not rule a Shi’a Lebanon. If Hizballah takes its militarized population to war, it takes the rest of us with it. The Shi’ite population under its influence probably won’t mind so much because they are constantly prepared for war psychologically by their leadership, but the rest of us aren’t, and can never be, since Hizballah’s ideology is limited to and defined by Shi’ism. This reality causes tremendous friction and tension in an already fragile country. It adds one more challenge to a country already fraught with challenges.
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Sectarian Conflict:

Lebanon is almost defined by sectarianism. Its political system is designed to accommodate a sectarian reality. For Lebanon to exist as a stable and viable country, no one sect can dominate. The Christians tried doing so, then the Sunnis and Druze, and now, I guess, you could say the Shi’ite political elite is having a go. Don’t tell me that all they want to do is fight Israel , and all that nonsense. The decision to go to war is the most important decision any polity can make, and by taking it upon itself to decide on behalf of all Lebanese to conduct military operations against Israel, Hizballah (de-facto) utterly dominates its counterparts – it acts as a national leader, whereas it is merely a sectarian one.

You mention, in your e-mail, how “there is something positive to be said for how much Hizballah and Amal have played within the system to the degree that they have.” Well, in response to that, I say that if Hizballah and Amal gain any more influence, Lebanon will simply become a Shi’ite state!

The Lebanese state spares no one with its incompetence! All regions of Lebanon were and continue to be subject to the state’s inability to offer services. The reasons for the relative wealth in Mt. Lebanon has nothing to do with state-intervention, and everything to do with immigration patterns (and the consequent remittances), as well as the Beirut-Damascus highway, which makes it a little more convenient for tourists to drop by! Over the past decade and more however, as more expatriate Shi’ites make their fortunes, the situation has changed dramatically, and the overall well-being of the Shi’a population has improved significantly!

As for Beirut , what can I say? It is the capital of Lebanon , and welcomes members of all sects. You also have to keep in mind that Lebanon's resources are limited and that investments in infrastructure need to pay off (at least in the long run). Building a university in every region of the country for the sake of satisfying sectarian competition is simply unfeasible! Building a university in Beirut though, where all who wish to attend may do so is, of course, the better , more feasible, alternative.
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A conflict between established elites and up and coming counter elites

In Lebanon the established elites are members of old political families that still retain a traditional base of support. Jumblatt is a perfect example of this club. I am a Druze, and most Druze who support Jumblatt are people I dislike for a myriad of reasons, which can be summed up in one phrase: traditional communitarianism. Their support for the man merely manifests their “Druzeness” and has nothing to do with social, economic or political preferences. Anyways, the same can be said of most of the common Lebanese folk to some degree or another – except with Hizballah, which I will get to in a moment.

Going back to the elite counter-elite competition though, you could easily place Hizballah as a counter-elite. The traditionally powerful Shi’ite families are the Khalils the Asa’ads, the Hamades and many more. Hizballah has used its religious legitimacy and the endless amount of resources it gets from Iran to undercut the support that these families would otherwise have received from the Shi’a population. The alliance between General Aoun and Hizballah, when seen through this prism, is actually pretty natural. Aoun sees himself as a common man, and despises the traditional Christian elite (including the Maronite Patriarch, who he perceives as a rival). Ever since his return to Lebanon , for example, Aoun has called for an overhaul of the Lebanese political class.

Where do I see my self in this particular battle? Well, despite his political choices, alliances (at the local and regional levels), and his obvious flaws, I have always had a soft spot for Gen. Aoun. As for Hizballah, I acknowledge their skills and organizational capacity, however, I cannot but stand against them because of their vision.
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A conflict between two solutions to the Arab-Israeli conflict

The first option is a diplomatic track suggested by the Saudis where the Israelis would get full recognition by all Arab states in exchange for returning to the 1967 borders. The second track is what I would call the Tehran track… which essentially implies that there will never be peace unless an agreement involves, and is approved by, Tehran . I have personal doubts regarding the rational capacities of Israel ’s leadership. However, their withdrawal from Lebanon in 2000, and Gaza just this past year, at least indicates their awareness of the futility of imposing their will militarily.

Some would argue that these withdrawals as well as the construction of the wall on the West Bank merely conveys that Israel is no longer interested in negotiations, but rather is creating a situation on the ground that it could live with indefinitely. If such were the case, these people argue, then the military activities of Hizballah and the Palestinians would be justifiable because it prevents the Israelis from imposing a settlement as opposed to negotiating a mutually agreeable one.

You see what’s happening here, don’t you? Each side is preparing for the next round of negotiations by doing their utmost to weaken the other in order to secure a stronger position at the table. The Iranians are basically saying, if you leave it to us, we’ll ensure that the Palestinians get a better deal! REALLY? How much of a better deal? And at what price? Will the “better deal” be worth everything the Palestinians and their neighbor to the North are paying? I doubt it. And all that is happening here is a prolonging of the conflict and a trend towards escalation that may lead us to Armageddon.

No, in this case, I am with the Saudis.

Forced To Take Sides

2006-09-01T05:28:00.000-05:00

I remember when the war first broke out, I bumped coincidentally into a friend on msn chat whom I haven't seen or chatted with since several years ago. After the niceties, he quickly asked me, "Who are you with?" I was a bit puzzled. What did he mean by that question, like I would not be with Lebanon??! I said, "I'm with Lebanon!" He replied, "But Lebanon is divided and this is the reality."

After the conversation was over, it hit me that his question was about if I was with the March 8 or the March 14 coalition. But it was so interesting to see that these sides during the war faded somehow; we were faced with different sorts of divisions.

The truth of the matter is that no matter what, the Lebanese are always forced to take sides. First it was pro-Syrian versus anti-Syrian. Of course to be anti-Syrian was always hush-hush. We could express our frustration to our closest friends, at home (but even at home we would whisper as if the walls can record every word we utter).

A couple of years before the Syrian troops left Lebanon, my family moved to work in Syria. I learned then the amount of misconception the Lebanese have towards the Syrians in general. Raja and I back at AUB organized two cultural trips to Syria; I recall how appalled many Lebanese were at the idea of organizing such trips. Interestingly enough, most of those who joined us on the trips were Lebanese expatriates and foreign students and professors. We saw the beauty and potential Syria has, how the people there are like us, and how the regime there rarely taps into the potential of the country and its people.

I was taught only then to distinguish between a regime and the people. I like Syria and because I do, I thought the Lebanese-Syrian relations would be at a disadvantage if the Syrian regime kept its stronghold on Lebanon and didn't leave it to be an independent state.

...So we took sides then and we gravitated towards the March 14 forces. Unfortunately then, not all saw eye-to-eye on this issue and we were forced to take sides.

And then this war broke out. Despite the unity that many politicians tried to forge through, frankly it was a facade. Yes, we were all united against the Israeli war machine, against the deaths and destruction, but again we did not see eye-to-eye on the politics. Then, last month, for me at least, March 8 and March 14 seized to exist as a viable division. The divisions morphed into: with the Taif State versus not with the Taif State, patriotic versus un-patriotic (or to some zionist), with Hizbullah's arms versus with Hizbullah's disarmament, and again back to pro-Syrian versus anti-Syrian.

I don't want to take sides. Lebanon entered into a dark tunnel and I simply want it back! I click on the Al-Mustaqbal daily and I read just the headlines...nothing appealing, just talk, the editorial keeps on instilling in us fear of a Syrian comeback which to me is pathetic. I click on Annahar, the same, just skim through the headlines. I click on Al-Balad, just check out the caricature.....

Nothing to say, the Lebanese are confused as never before. Perhaps I look at the Prime Minister and I appreciate his stands. I understand the difficulty in trying to bring a divided country together. He extols the resistance and asks for Lebanon's sovereignty in one breath. It's a difficult, delicate task.

I always believed in action as opposed to politicking. I wish the government can call on those Lebanese who live abroad to return to Lebanon to re-build it, but I know it's wishful thinking; there are many standing issues still unresolved. And who is to resolve them? I don't know. Is it time? Or some other factor?

The question is: Am I needed back home? The appeal of Hizbullah is that it asks its supporters to be there for it, for a cause that drives them. The figher is an engineer, is a relief worker, is a construction worker, is a doctor, a nurse, a teacher....That's what's missing in any Lebanese state plan. The Lebanese state is only good in asking those with the money to return so they could invest here and there, but what about those with just skills? Do we have a place in your plans?

I'll end with a poem I wrote during the Grapes of Wrath war back in 1996 when I was only 15, a tribute to the resistance. However, right now I believe in a resistance of a different kind, that of preserving a liberal, democratic, enlightened Lebanon, a Lebanon for all Lebanese.

(Originally in Arabic, translated to English for the blog's purpose):

Al-Thawra
The revolution is our daughter
The fighter spirit
One hand in the face of the sun
I wish I was one of them
The passing away of life after fulfilling the self
How beautiful it is...to die like that
My revolution
A war against the deadly machine
Facing blood with a white heart
Why don't you do like me?
There is no goal without the land
A land I have sipped from its wine until I was drunk
Soil and blue possessing no boundaries
A well reflecting the face of history
Oh what a land!
It deserves this crazy revolution
The body disintegrates
But my soul will chose Lebanon as its end
Lebanonize (Talabnanoo)....
You will attain love, beauty and wisdom.

April 19, 1996
Tripoli, Lebanon

"Nobody knows how many rebellions, besides political rebellions, ferment in the masses of life which people earth."

The Magnificent Seven

2006-08-31T07:34:00.000-05:00

They were brought onto this world, ordained by the gods, to be heads of their respective states. Their sole purpose was to save humanity from the tyranical heathens of the West.

These noble men are now the selfless, humble and enlightened shepherds who lead their helpless flocks to safety and lush pastures.

These men are the Magnificent Seven!

Bashar "thilvethter" Assad

Robert "Starvin'"* Mugabe

Hugo "The Ego" Chavez

Kim "Rocket Man" Jong Il

Evo "The Amateur" Morales

Alexander "Putin" Lukashenko

and last but not least,

Mahmud "the Mehdi" Ahmedinejad

These men make me proud to be a member of the human species! They offer a ray of hope to man (and woman) kind... .

* p.s. just so none of you think "starvin'" was a racial slur, let me clarify: You see, in the process of freeing Zimbabwe from the evil yoke of the British Empire, Mugabe essentially destroyed his country's economy. Whereas as one point in time, most Zimbabweans had easy access to what may be considered "the basics" in life, once "set free" by Mugabe, they could barely afford food. Hence his nickname!

The "Divine Victory" becomes ever more apparent...

2006-08-30T07:23:00.000-05:00

As the dust begins to settle in Lebanon, Hassan Nasrallah's "Divine Victory" becomes clearer for everyone to see. The Associated Press reports that thousands of Lebanese "are unable to return to their homes two weeks after the cease-fire took hold because they feel too insecure or their houses are destroyed, the U.N. refugee agency said Tuesday."

Jack Redden, spokesman for the UNHCR, said, "in the area of Byblos, 2,600 people were still homeless, adding that there were 3,400 in Kesrouan and 6,000 in the Metn." Redden then said that "the charity group Caritas estimated that there were still 35,000 homeless people in Beirut."

These figures do not take into account families who have returned to the South or Harek Hreyk, yet reside with family or friends (this category obviously constitutes the majority of Lebanon's new internally displaced population).

I couldn't be angrier. The Israelis definitely dropped the bombs, but Hizballah provided them with exactly what they needed to go through with the bombing campaign. Moreover, the organization created such a false sense of security (their now infamous and imaginary "deterrence capabilities") that had the results not been so cataclysmic, I'd be on the floor laughing my eyes out.

The primary purpose of responsible combatants (i.e. Armies) around the world is to protect the population that provides it with the manpower and resources it needs to exist. Hizballah, on the other hand, appears to exist at the expense of the population that, at the very least, provides it with the manpower it needs.

How does Nasrallah get away with it? Well, much smarter people could probably give you the answer to that question. Maybe this book will help. If it does, come back and tell me - I'd like to know!

Update: Here are some more facts & figures to celebrate (remember, every single one of those numbers has a life and story attached to it):

Economist Kamal Hamdan forecast that unemployment could more than double from the official level of nine percent before the fighting to as high as 20 percent in the coming months.
Fellow economist Marwan Iskandar said: "In the short term, over the next six months, 50,000-55,000 people are going to lose their jobs."
Iskander estimated the number of lost jobs in the industrial sector could climb to 10,000. Another 2,000 retail workers are expected to be laid off as consumption plummets.
Analysts agree that tourism and services will probably suffer the most... . In high season, 110,000 people are employed in those sectors, and they were looking forward to a record year as the country continued to rebound from its 1975-90 civil war.
About 1,000 more cafes and restaurants could still close, while around 100 in central Beirut that cater to rich Gulf tourists now operate with reduced shifts, Ariss said.

AFP

The passing away of a legend

2006-08-30T06:12:00.000-05:00

Naguib Mahfouz is dead. He died in a hospital as a result of kidney failure. His passing transpires 12 years after a fundamentalist imbecile attempted to assassinate him for his incisive and critical depictions of Egyptian society.

You see, Mahfouz did what very few of his peers dared: he raised to the surface, for all to see, aspects of his society that fundamentalists, and even the majority of people, so desperately sought to burry underneath veils of secrecy and beards of hypocrisy. He earned a well-deserved Nobel Prize for his work.

I have read only one of his books - the most famous one, of course: Midaq Alley. I read it as assigned reading in high school, at the American Community School of Beirut (one of the very few books I actually read while at school); and later, again as assigned reading, at the American University of Beirut. I was thoroughly taken by his words. So many aspects of Midaq Alley simply pulled me in, in a way that I couldn't get out, even if I wanted to.

Nagib Mahfouz sparks a sense of pride in me - despite the fact that I am not Egyptian. Just like Fairuz, his work transcends boundaries. At this point in the Middle East's history, I can only hope for more men and women with the courage and skill of that awesome man.

May he rest in peace.

Italian Foreign Minister: Hizballah Must Disarm

2006-08-29T07:45:00.000-05:00

The Italian Foreign Minister, Massimo D'Alema, penned an op-ed piece for the Wall Street Journal today. In it, the optimistic (almost giddy) D'Alema, tied Europe's commitment to Lebanon to a solution for the entire region.

Passing the difficult Lebanon test means creating a win-win situation for the Lebanese, the Israelis and the region as a whole. Realizing what is at stake, Italy is seriously committed to its solution -- with humanitarian assistance as well as with a generous offer of troops (3,000) for the new Unifil mission.

D'Alema then lists three conditions that are needed to pass "the Lebanese test".

First, of course, the Lebanese army and the international peacekeeping force, working together in a consistent and sustainable way, must be able to guarantee Lebanon's full sovereignty over its territory. [And just in case some might find some vagueness in that point, he goes on to say that] Hezballah will have to disband... .

The second related step, thus, will be making sure that Israel achieves enhanced security through political agreements with its neighbors... .

Thirdly, Hezbollah will have to evolve into a purely political and nonviolent movement... . Hassan Nasrallah's recent self-criticism about the consequences of the war demonstrates the limits of a strategy based on violence.

With regards to Syria, Mr. D'Alema wrote,

Syria, in particular must choose between being a cooperative stakeholder (by complying with Resolution 1701) or self-isolation.

He then goes on to elaborate on what he sees as Europe's new role in the region,

By offering 7,000 troops to the enhanced Unifil mission, Europe has spelled out its commitment. For the first time Europe takes full responsibility for a security role in the Middle East. After having long been a "payer" of economic assistance, the EU shows willingness to become a "player... ."

The implementation of Resolution 1701 will be a crucial test for all of us. If we succeed, this will create new momentum for seriously addressing the 60-year-old Palestinian issue -- the sooner the better, for all parties involved.

As I read through the piece I thought about Nasrallah's interview yesterday and how he said that he had no problem with the Unifil contingent so long as it did not try to disarm him. I also could not help but imagine a European base or military convoy obliterated by a suicide bomber - similar in magnitude to that which transpired in 1982.

What really matters now is how the presence of these troops will impact the Lebanese political scene, because ultimately the key to passing "the Lebanese test" (as Mr. D'Alema puts it) lies in that particular playground. Will the Europeans give March 14 the teeth that the Army could never offer them? Or will they just sit there and be forgotten? Time will tell.

Visualize This:

2006-08-28T20:29:00.000-05:00

A sick Lebanese cedar that represents the Lebanese state.
Seniora and other members of the political coalition he represents standing on one side of the tree desperately, but also somewhat pathetically, trying to save the tree by watering it...
Nasrallah standing on the other side of the tree, chopping it down with an axe, asking: "where is the Lebanese state?"
Aoun standing on the sidelines, throwing a rant against the ruling majority.

I wish I had the skills of Stavro or other cartoonists... but I barely get away with writing!

EIU: Lebanon GDP to fall by 10% in 2006

2006-08-27T20:02:00.000-05:00

The Daily Star reports,

A London-based research center said Lebanon's Gross Domestic Product will fall by 10 percent in 2006 and expects a reduced current account deficit of $4.8 billion this year... .

Although the Economist Intelligence Unit expects a settlement to be reached, the country's prospects are even more uncertain than previously. The obstacles preventing the current government from engaging in effective policymaking will grow, and its stability could yet be endangered by the downside risks associated with the conflict... .

Prior to this fiasco, some Lebanese political parties waged a relentless (and justifiable) political campaign against the Future Movement for accumulating $35 billion worth of debt during the fifteen years of post-war reconstruction. Today, in a matter of one month, as a result of the irresponsible actions of one party, Lebanon's GDP has shrunk by 10%. Akh! Aaaaaaaaaaakh!

Need I say more? Is this where we all want our country to be?

Update - Hizballah Reconstruction Efforts:

The Financial Times, AP and other news services published articles concerning Hizballah's reconstruction efforts in Harek Hreik (the area of Beirut that was hit hardest by the Israeli Air Force).

Apparently, 1,000 volunteer engineers an architects are taking part in this rather impressive effort under the umbrella of an organization called Jihad el a3mar (literally, The Construction Jihad), which was originally launched following Israel's futile 1996 military adventure, "Grapes of Wrath," which led to the downfall of then Israeli PM Shimon Perez.

Funding, according to a representative of that organization, comes from private donations, as opposed to Iran. Kassem Allaik, head of Jihad el a3mar told the Financial Times that "each Hizballah association is self-financed and relies on individual donations from sympathisers."

Mr. Allaik went on to say that "We help build a society of resistance... . Our aim is to create conditions so people can stay on their land to confront the enemy."

----

Several comments concerning these efforts. The first concerns credibility. Mr. Allaik tells us that his organization does not get funding from Iran. I find that assertion hard to believe because Hizballah's credibility suffered tremendously as a result of its lies concerning the source of its weaponry.

Prior to the war, Nasrallah and most of Hizballah's top brass insisted repeatedly to the Lebanese public that they did not receive military material from Iran, or any other form of military support, for that matter. I remember watching a Kalam el Nass show, where one of Hizballah's MPs used the Maronites' relationship with the Vatican to describe Hizbalah's relationship with Tehran - I believe it was MP Ali Amar. Now if those public assertions did not turn out to be blatant lies, I simply do not know what is a lie anymore.

During the month-long war, Turkish authorities refused to allow an Iranian aircraft to fly into its airspace because the pilot would not land his aircraft in Turkey to be searched (it is important to note here that subsequent aircraft flying from Tehran to Damascus did land in Turkey, and after being searched were found to be carrying humanitarian aid). According to press reports, that particular plane was filled with silk-worm surface-to-ship missiles of the kind used to damage an Israeli ship off Lebanese shores. Moreover, numerous Hizballah fighters interviewed by Western journalists have claimed to have received training from the Iranian Revolutionary Guard during "business" trips to Iran.

Therefore, thanks to these blatant lies emanating from the Hizballah leadership, I find that I cannot take Mr. Allaik for his word. How naive of me to think, at one point in time, that I should believe these men because they were "men of the cloth."

The second point I would like to make concerning Kassem Allaik, is that irrespective of his source of funding and his motivation (which I will get back to in a minute) the work that he and his men are doing is impressive, noble, and, no doubt, much appreciated by the Shi'ite population. However, these men should not forget that once people have roofs over their heads, the inhabitants will need to sustain themselves and their families economically. That means that they will need well-paying jobs that only a vibrant economy can afford them.

I very much doubt Hizballah's ability to create such a reality. Rather, if anything, Hizballah's mere existence in Lebanon has ensured that the country's economic performance has failed to achieve anything near its potential over the past 15 years.

As for the motivation of these men's work. In Allaik's own words, "Our aim is to create conditions so people can stay on their land to confront the enemy... ." One can decipher from this statement that the sole purpose Hizballah has in mind for its people is to stay on their land merely to "confront the enemy." In other words, staying on their land is simply not sufficient in and of itself.

Well, if that is the case, then I advise the guys working for Jihad el a3mar to build straw buildings for their people because it looks like we're going to be experiencing a lot more these wars in the near future.

Straw houses are easy to destroy, but they're also easily and cheaply rebuilt.

Exchanging Roles?

2006-08-26T14:09:00.000-05:00

This is an essay a close friend of mine - Hassan Harajli - wrote straight after the ceasefire... I thought I'd post it here for all of you to read and analyse...

Amongst other issues we Lebanese must address, Hassan discusses a solution to Hizbollah's military wing in the Lebanese Army which is truly insightful...
-----------------------------------------------------------

Exchanging Roles?

I am not a political analyst or a historian in profession, yet there are some challenging questions out of this latest war between Lebanon and Israel. Who won? At what cost? Who was to blame? Is it over or would there be yet another conflict on Lebanese soil? What will happen next? Would Lebanon survive this Israeli aggression economically, and so on…?

Hizbullah has proven, as a local political party with a military wing, supported financially and militarily by its’ ideological strategic ally, Iran, that it could withstand one of the world’s mightiest and modern military machines through sheer internal organization, by coming from and fighting for the land they are on, by the knowledge of the enemy’s capacities and capabilities, the acquisition of appropriate military hardware (albeit missing the ground to air missiles) to resist, and a faith in God and in fighting on the cause of Justice.

In this aspect Hizbullah has come out more or less victorious. The victory is one that is both national in nature and yet more importantly regional. Regional in a sense that it has sent shockwaves across the Arab world whose leaders have all, more or less, been inflected by an inferiority complex when it comes to Israel from one angle, and been taken forever captive by economic and commercial interests with the U.S (to say the least), denying them the ability to maneuver politically to even dispel the Israel ambassador in their land (for example). Hizbullah has proven that the Israel army is not an invincible machine, yet with strenuous preparation, organization, proper armaments, and faith, it could be put to a stop, so not to say defeated.

Herein, Hizbullah has stood up to a nation that has flouted almost every UN Council Resolution, undertaken every possible atrocity against humanity throughout history, and has considered itself above international law, and more frighteningly, above all the peace negotiations with the Arabs, while the Arabs are left to moan about rights, international law, Council resolutions, justice, ‘but this, but that’… And Israel does whatever extremity it sees fit to ensure that the Arabs, including the Palestinians, stay weak and divided, within the so-called ‘New Middle East’ perhaps – all under the pretext of combating ‘terrorism’ and under their flawed terminology of ‘self defense’.

Yet in my opinion, the victory of Hizbullah is a victory for the Arabs only to the extent of emotion and semi-retrieved pride, yet is a potential defeat in that its accomplishments, especially of late, stem not from an Arab nation and its institutions as a whole, yet from an almost independently run political party with semi-autonomy from the central government (albeit it represents almost a third of the Lebanese population).

I say potential defeat because though the dichotomy between Hizbullah and the Lebanese Central Government served well in the past to limit Israel’s disproportionate firepower to Hizbullah and not the whole Lebanese state, it cannot proceed as it is, and as Hizbullah wishes it should, for two primary reasons.

The first reason is that this military achievement and self-confidence booster to the Arab peoples should be invested in the Lebanese government. Strength of nations surrounding Israel should no longer be viewed as a taboo or an impossibility. What harm would it bring if Hizbullah gave its important military arsenal to the Lebanese army and trained the army about its historic methods in combating Israel? Why not include a strong regiment (of Hizbullah soldiers) in the army that applies ‘guerrilla’ warfare tactics, especially when a ‘classical’ army is absolutely useless in front of Israel? Why not arm the Lebanese army the same way that it has been armed, and teach it the same perseverance and decentralized command system of the Hizbullah soldiers? Some may say that that would produce an Israeli aggression on all of Lebanon, but that has already happened in this July-August war. If Hizbullah does not give its victory and its assets to the Lebanese army, with an agreed upon time-frame, then it is a failure, nothing more and nothing less. A failure that entails that Hizbullah’s achievements are beyond the scope and ability of any Arab government. This duplicity of resistance and government should be replicated throughout the Arab world in order to defeat Israeli aggressions.

The second reason is economic. Herein perhaps my opinion is a little bias towards the type of class I belong to (a middle class citizen) and the profession category which makes for my living (the Small and Medium Sized Enterprises - SMEs). Yet no business activity in Lebanon has been spared this time around, and the numbers (including myself) who are now lined at embassies for immigration purposes are greater than they were before, and they were abundant before. Who will compensate? Inevitably every built house in the South, South of Beirut, Bekaa… would be given money for reconstruction, yet what about all those SMEs? Can they for example show their past yearly and monthly balance sheets and be compensated for the direct damage caused and compensated for opportunities forgone? These SMEs are after all, the economic backbone of any prospering nation.

On this note as well, it is totally unacceptable that Hizbullah or any other party be allowed to compensate for the damages of this war (through its regional allies) unless Hizbullah accepts to become the government and the government a political party. All aid to the Lebanese people affected by this war must be done through governmental channels or at least through coordination with the central government, of which Hizbullah is a part. No longer should Hizbullah hold a semi-governmental character, and all its assets, both financial and military should be transferred through the government. Or else why is there a government?

Finally, a further important issue to rise would be seeing Israeli politicians and generals fighting it out in Israel, blaming and criticizing each other for all their failures in this foolish war they initiated, and the expectation that their prime minister will fall. To some in Lebanon, this is seen as a victory, a victory that should ensure that such events do not occur, at least in public, between the Lebanese.
However, I see this as democracy. Israel is practicing democracy were actions are held accountable and though who have not done their jobs correctly, would be penalized by the system in place. In this sense, if the prime minister falls out in Israel, it is not a victory for us as much as a victory for their system of checks and balances.
In Lebanon, no voice should be silenced this way, silenced by blaming him or her of serving the Zionist state. This would be a crime in itself, a stopping of a nation that holds itself high in terms of discourse and harmony between sects and political parties - A crime against free expression of speech and progress.

I can only hope now that Hizbullah, and on whose southern lands they come from would rise to this golden opportunity to reveal its national character, which I always believed in, and play a vital role in strengthening the central government. Otherwise and again, Hizbullah should become the government and the government a political party.

Now the war should be next fought on lands which are still invaded, particularly Syria (as it is continuously in Palestine), and it is a message that Hizbullah takes to those lands that should be listened too and applied, not met by empty speeches praising Hizbullah and Lebanese blood as a model, and even getting political leverage from it, and yet go on in doing nothing for their own dignity, land and people except ensuring the survival of a Machiavellian elite.

HASSAN HARAJLI

In the words of the villagers

2006-08-26T06:38:00.000-05:00

As the villagers of Marwaheen (a Sunni town right on the border with Israel) burry their dead, the New York Times provides us with a window into local sentiments.

“We kept beseeching them, ‘Stay out! Stay out!’ ”

“They said, ‘We’re all in the same boat together, so deal with it... .’ But why should our children die for their cause?”

“There is no way for us to stop them... . These are not people you can say no to.”

The village's troubles began sometime last year when a local resident who had converted to Shiism was appointed the local representative of Hezbollah, residents said. Soon strange things began to occur: strangers came through for late-night meetings; trucks would come and go in the middle of the night; and a suspicious-looking white van was parked at each end of the village.

...

On Thursday, one of the suspicious white vans was sitting next to the town mosque. The van had apparently been hit by an Israeli missile, but the launching platform for a Katyusha rocket could still be seen inside. A rocket that lay next to the van a few days earlier had been removed.

“One man in this village was able to turn all our lives upside down for just a bit of money,”

“We want the army and the United Nations to come in here and protect us... . Israel is our enemy, but the problem is that Hezbollah gave them an excuse to come in and kill our children.”

“That was my dad... . That was my brother, and that is his family. I wish God had taken me with them.”

“Farewell, father... . Farewell, brother, I will miss you.”

Hizballah Only Won In The Eyes of The West

2006-08-25T08:02:00.000-05:00

Amir Taheri, an exiled Iranian academic and author, wrote a very insightful and provoking op-ed piece in the Wall Street Journal today, that I believe should be read by as many people as possible. In the interest of furthering that goal, I will paste the majority of what he wrote on this blog, so that those of you not lucky enough to actually read it get the chance to.

Taheri's main hypothesis suggests, rather ironically I suppose, that Hizballah's victory was limited to within the boundaries of Western media coverage. He solicits the help of Egyptian columnist Ali al Ibrahim to articulate his point even further, by quoting him as saying, "Hezbollah won the propaganda war because many in the West wanted it to win as a means of settling scores with the United States... ."

So, how is this possible? How could any sane human being come to the conclusion that Hizballah actually lost this war with Israel (at the political level, of course)? Well, Taheri broke down his answer to that question into several layers: 1) a national layer, 2) a sectarian layer (both society and shi'ite jurisprudence) 2) and even an organizational (i.e. Hizballah) layer.

I will present his piece in a way that emphasizes these layers and highlight what I believe to be some of his most potent points.

The National Layer: Nasrallah's reaction to the war, and how he lost Lebanon

Immediately after the U.N.-ordained ceasefire started, Hezbollah organized a series of firework shows, accompanied by the distribution of fruits and sweets, to celebrate its victory. Most Lebanese, however, finding the exercise indecent, stayed away. The largest "victory march" in south Beirut, Hezbollah's stronghold, attracted just a few hundred people.

Initially Hezbollah had hesitated between declaring victory and going into mourning for its "martyrs." The latter course would have been more in harmony with Shiite traditions centered on the cult of Imam Hussain's martyrdom in 680 A.D. Some members of Hezbollah wished to play the martyrdom card so that they could accuse Israel, and, through it, the U.S., of war crimes. They knew that it was easier for Shiites, brought up in a culture of eternal victimhood, to cry over an imagined calamity than laugh in the joy of a claimed victory.

Politically, however, Hezbollah had to declare victory for a simple reason: It had to pretend that the death and desolation it had provoked had been worth it. A claim of victory was Hezbollah's shield against criticism of a strategy that had led Lebanon into war without the knowledge of its government and people. Mr. Nasrallah alluded to this in television appearances, calling on those who criticized him for having triggered the war to shut up because "a great strategic victory" had been won.

The tactic worked for a day or two. However, it did not silence the critics, who have become louder in recent days. The leaders of the March 14 movement, which has a majority in the Lebanese parliament and government, have demanded an investigation into the circumstances that led to the war, a roundabout way of accusing Hezbollah of having provoked the tragedy. Prime Minister Fouad Siniora has made it clear that he would not allow Hezbollah to continue as a state within the state. Even Michel Aoun, a maverick Christian leader and tactical ally of Hezbollah, has called for the Shiite militia to disband.

The Sectarian Layer: Powerful segments of Shi'ite society resist Hizballah's vision and authoritarianism

Hezbollah is also criticized from within the Lebanese Shiite community, which accounts for some 40% of the population. Sayyed Ali al-Amin, the grand old man of Lebanese Shiism, has broken years of silence to criticize Hezbollah for provoking the war, and called for its disarmament. In an interview granted to the Beirut An-Nahar, he rejected the claim that Hezbollah represented the whole of the Shiite community. "I don't believe Hezbollah asked the Shiite community what they thought about [starting the] war," Mr. al-Amin said. "The fact that the masses [of Shiites] fled from the south is proof that they rejected the war. The Shiite community never gave anyone the right to wage war in its name."

There were even sharper attacks. Mona Fayed, a prominent Shiite academic in Beirut, wrote an article also published by An-Nahar last week. She asks: Who is a Shiite in Lebanon today? She provides a sarcastic answer: A Shiite is he who takes his instructions from Iran, terrorizes fellow believers into silence, and leads the nation into catastrophe without consulting anyone.
...

Some Lebanese Shiites also question Mr. Nasrallah's strategy of opposing Prime Minister Siniora's "Project for Peace," and instead advancing an Iranian-backed "Project of Defiance." The coalition led by Mr. Siniora wants to build Lebanon into a haven of peace in the heart of a turbulent region. His critics dismiss this as a plan "to create a larger Monaco." Mr. Nasrallah's "Project of Defiance," however, is aimed at turning Lebanon into the frontline of Iranian defenses in a war of civilizations between Islam (led by Tehran) and the "infidel," under American leadership. "The choice is between the beach and the bunker," says Lebanese scholar Nadim Shehadeh. There is evidence that a majority of Lebanese Shiites would prefer the beach.

...

There was a time when Shiites represented an underclass of dirt-poor peasants in the south and lumpen elements in Beirut. Over the past 30 years, however, that picture has changed. Money sent from Shiite immigrants in West Africa (where they dominate the diamond trade), and in the U.S. (especially Michigan), has helped create a prosperous middle class of Shiites more interested in the good life than martyrdom à la Imam Hussain. This new Shiite bourgeoisie dreams of a place in the mainstream of Lebanese politics and hopes to use the community's demographic advantage as a springboard for national leadership. Hezbollah, unless it ceases to be an instrument of Iranian policies, cannot realize that dream.
The list of names of those who never endorsed Hezbollah, or who broke with it after its Iranian connections became too apparent, reads like a Who's Who of Lebanese Shiism. It includes, apart from the al-Amins, families such as the al-As'ad, the Osseiran, the al-Khalil, the Hamadah, the Murtadha, the Sharafeddin, the Fadhlallah, the Mussawis, the Hussainis, the Shamsuddin and the Ata'allahs.

The Organizational Layer: Factional tensions exist within Hizballah

Before he provoked the war, Mr. Nasrallah faced growing criticism not only from the Shiite community, but also from within Hezbollah. Some in the political wing expressed dissatisfaction with his over-reliance on the movement's military and security apparatus. Speaking on condition of anonymity, they described Mr. Nasrallah's style as "Stalinist" and pointed to the fact that the party's leadership council (shura) has not held a full session in five years. Mr. Nasrallah took all the major decisions after clearing them with his Iranian and Syrian contacts, and made sure that, on official visits to Tehran, he alone would meet Iran's "Supreme Guide" Ali Khamenei.

Sectarian Layer (2): Significant disagreement exists with Nasrallah on matters of Shi'ite Jurisprudence

Mr. Nasrallah was also criticized for his acknowledgement of Ali Khamenei as Marjaa al-Taqlid (Source of Emulation), the highest theological authority in Shiism. Highlighting his bay'aah (allegiance), Mr. Nasrallah kisses the man's hand each time they meet. Many Lebanese Shiites resent this because Mr. Khamenei, a powerful politician but a lightweight in theological terms, is not recognized as Marjaa al-Taqlid in Iran itself. The overwhelming majority of Lebanese Shiites regard Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani, in Iraq, or Ayatollah Muhammad-Hussein Fadhlallah, in Beirut, as their "Source of Emulation."

Amir Taheri's Conclusion

Far from representing the Lebanese national consensus, Hezbollah is a sectarian group backed by a militia that is trained, armed and controlled by Iran. In the words of Hossein Shariatmadari, editor of the Iranian daily Kayhan, "Hezbollah is 'Iran in Lebanon.'" In the 2004 municipal elections, Hezbollah won some 40% of the votes in the Shiite areas, the rest going to its rival Amal (Hope) movement and independent candidates. In last year's general election, Hezbollah won only 12 of the 27 seats allocated to Shiites in the 128-seat National Assembly -- despite making alliances with Christian and Druze parties and spending vast sums of Iranian money to buy votes.

Having lost more than 500 of its fighters, and with almost all of its medium-range missiles destroyed, Hezbollah may find it hard to sustain its claim of victory. "Hezbollah won the propaganda war because many in the West wanted it to win as a means of settling score with the United States," says Egyptian columnist Ali al-Ibrahim. "But the Arabs have become wise enough to know TV victory from real victory."

Power To Help, Power To Deprive

2006-08-24T14:14:00.000-05:00

Quickly, two news items:

French President Chirac has announced that he will be sending 2,000 French troops to Lebanon and claims that they are ready to head the UN peacekeeping force.

The second news item is that Syria has officially decided to cut off its power supply to Lebanon. During the month-long war Syria has helped Lebanon get access to more hours of electricity around the country. Now, many parts of the country will be in the dark.

"Nobody knows how many rebellions, besides political rebellions, ferment in the masses of life which people earth."

desperate and stupid: a rant

2006-08-24T07:41:00.000-05:00

These posters are apparently all over Beirut - or wherever rubble exists, anyway. They bother me. They bother me because the message they convey implies that "we Lebanese were simply minding our own business, living our lives and not bothering anyone, and then all of a sudden, an Israeli-American armaggedon befell us!"

Well...What can I say? Witty? Sure. Especially that "Middle Beast" one. But self-righteously stupid nevertheless.

Message to Hizballah propaganda people:

You don't go beat up on someone a hundred times your size, and then cry "wawa" when the guy finally turns around and beats the crap out of you! Oooh... "made in the USA!"

Duh!!!

You knew what they were capable of doing all along... even when your brainwashed supporters were distributing baklawa after you kidnaped those Israeli soldiers.

What would have happened if we lived in a Democratic polity? Well... I think the public would have had a lot of questions to ask. Maybe they would have formed a commission. Maybe that commission would eventually come to certain conclusions that would not necessarily please Hizballah, but Hizballah would have to abide by its decisions anyway.

Oh wait, we don't live in a democratic polity. Besides, the very people who should be at the forefront of calling for such an inquiry, consider doing so "treacherous." How many articles have I read, quoting villagers standing in front of their ruined houses, proudly proclaiming that the "Muqawama" protected Lebanon?

Oh yeah. And how could I forget? This calamity was "made in the USA!" It's all the Big and Little Satan's fault! I'm going to go blow my self up now so that I can somehow make my life a little better!

Stupid!

We Are Not Here To Stay: Look In The Mirror

2006-08-23T15:51:00.000-05:00

Let's face it: from a realist point of view, Iran has power and is exercising it to the utmost.

Just when we thought the Italians pledged to head the UN military delegation into our southern borders, they rescinded that commitment today. If Iran was not powerful right now, would we all, including the Americans and Europeans, be waiting for that important date of August 31st, the day the UNSCR has scheduled a discussion on Iran's nuclear program? No.

Syrian President Assad can talk as much as he can, and Saudi and Egyptian press can retaliate for Assad's insults to their leadership as much as they can, the truth of the matter, none of these countries is a power to contend with.

I am sick of reading editorials instilling fear in us that the Syrian regime has a plan to re-occupy Lebanon. Again, let's face it: the Syrian regime is weak. For the past two years, the regime has been isolated from diplomatic relations, one of its major sources of income, namely its access to Lebanon, was closed, and many of those implicated in late Hariri's assassination had their accounts frozen. And if Syria really had power left to exercise, it would have intervened militarily during the one-month war on Lebanon.

Syria does not have power in its own right, it gets it from Iran. Long gone are the days when Syria during Hafez Assad's time was an Arab power, crucial in every way on the regional level. All what the Syrian regime has right now is a couple of crude speeches and relations with rogue fundamentalist groups (Al-Qaida) used as a threat against Lebanon and for destabilization purposes in Iraq.

The sad part is that Lebanon yet again has been chosen as the "convenient" place to pick the fights in. I read somewhere yesterday in a Lebanese newspaper someone asking why Israel hits a truck carrying arms to Hizbullah on Lebanese territories and not before it enters Lebanon. This is an important question.

It's as if there is an understanding amongst all powers that if Syria is hit, Iran will be pushed to respond. Remember a couple of months back Ahmadinejad's visit to Damascus? I believe this is when an Iranian-Syrian Entente was forged and a pledge was made by Iran to come to the rescue if Syria is hit or Hizbullah is threatened to disarm.

The fear to bring in Iran directly into the conflict shows that it's a power in its own right. Who wants a direct confrontation between Israel and Iran where a nuclear bomb becomes a solution Israel resorts to as a defensive mechanism? Arab countries would not like to intervene militarily in such a case, even when pushed to do so, and would consider it a failure that the Persians are directly fighting on their turf . The Americans would see their New Middle East Project crumbling even further with no chance of revival.

It just seems to me at times the whole situation in our part of the world is bleak. There is no true counterweight to Iran in the Arab world. Saudi Arabia has an arsenal of weapons and rockets that it never uses and when it wishes to, it usually relies on the Americans and British to fight their wars for them. Egypt and Jordan also have to contend with their internal threats, Islamic fundamentalism and what not. They have signed peace with Israel and perhaps do not have the capacity to face up to Iran.

So how more convenient could Lebanon be? Lebanon could keep Iran at bay; Iran can influence Hizbullah, fund Hamas, militarily back the Syrian regime, and intervene in the Iraqi war and peace equation: that's all better than inviting Iran inside the Arab House.

Our part of the world is a mess. I don't know where to start from. I guess it's this quality in us Arabs, where we like to eschew the difficult questions to a later time. It's time for the Arab leaders to look in the mirror and stop pretending that they are here to stay.

"Nobody knows how many rebellions, besides political rebellions, ferment in the masses of life which people earth."

Amnesty International Says The Obvious & Political Defeat.

2006-08-23T05:09:00.000-05:00

Amnesty International released a report on the 34-day war between Hizballah and Israel. I know, I know... the web is going to be flooded with citations of this report, and used by thousands to argue for the decimation of Israel.

Nevertheless, I feel it important to quote some sections of Amnesty's summary; if for no other reason, than to point it out to some self-righteous Israeli commenters who visit this blog. The real victim of this war was and remains Lebanon.

Israel's destruction of thousands of homes, and strikes on numerous bridges and roads as well as water and fuel storage plants, was an integral part of Israel's military strategy in Lebanon, rather than “collateral damage” resulting from the lawful targeting of military objectives.
...
The Israeli government has argued that they were targeting Hizbullah positions and support facilities and that other damage done to civilian infrastructure was a result of Hizbullah using the civilian population as a "human shield".
...
"The pattern, scope and scale of the attacks makes Israel's claim that this was 'collateral damage', simply not credible..."
...
"Civilian victims on both sides of this conflict deserve justice. The serious nature of violations committed makes an investigation into the conduct of both parties urgent. There must be accountability for the perpetrators of war crimes and reparation for the victims.”

I have heard Israelis counter that if their Army faced a conventional adversary in an open battlefield similar to the wars fought in the Suez and Golan Heights, Lebanese would have been spared the civilian casualties and destruction of infrastructure. I have also heard arguments, which contend that Hizballah is inherently immoral because it is an organization that is intimately intertwined with the general (i.e. Shi'a) population. Therefore, placing its own constituents directly in harms way during times of war.

What? Am I supposed to take sides in this useless debate over the morality of the actions of either side of this conflict? No! To me, Both sides are equally immoral. Therefore, self righteousness from either is the worst kind of denial of reality that I can place a finger on.

Politically though, no such equivalence exists. Increasing numbers of articles published by writers much more credible and articulate than I am say so. The latest, published in the Washington Post was written by, Egyptian Democracy advocate, Saad Eddine Ibrahim, who was arrested by Mubarak for his activities. Ibrahim writes,

According to the preliminary results of a recent public opinion survey of 1,700 Egyptians by the Cairo-based Ibn Khaldun Center, Hezbollah's action garnered 75 percent approval, and Nasrallah led a list of 30 regional public figures ranked by perceived importance. He appears on 82 percent of responses, followed by Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad (73 percent), Khaled Meshal of Hamas (60 percent), Osama bin Laden (52 percent) and Mohammed Mahdi Akef of Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood (45 percent).

The pattern here is clear, and it is Islamic. And among the few secular public figures who made it into the top 10 are Palestinian Marwan Barghouti (31 percent) and Egypt's Ayman Nour (29 percent), both of whom are prisoners of conscience in Israeli and Egyptian jails, respectively.

None of the current heads of Arab states made the list of the 10 most popular public figures.

It is becoming increasingly clear that the legitimacy of not only the current Arab political elite, but also the very secular states that they lead are being strained to the limit. The Israeli war on Lebanon, and the pathetic reaction of the Lebanese state to the calamity (compared to Hizballah's response) only serve to increase that strain. Two weeks ago, I wrote the following in an e-mail, concerning Hizballah in the regional context,

I think Hizballah is an organization that is very conscious that it is being watched by the Arab world and the world in general. They seek to present themselves to that audience as an Islamic organization capable of standing up the "American-Zionist" behemoth. But, I also think, that they wish to present themselves simply as an "effective Islamic organization" - as a viable alternative to the status-quo (i.e. a counter-elite). They wish to show everyone that an Islamic political system is not only feasible, but more capable than the secular political elite in not only a military but also a political and social sense.

Unfortunately, I think that they have succeeded, and are winning over the Arab public. Countries like Malaysia, Turkey and Indonesia may have effective secular political elites and states, but the Arab world, has some of the most useless, limp, pathetic governments out there. Anything compared to the existing Arab political elite will shine in comparison. Hizballah knows that. Therefore, it presents itself as the alternative - and there is no better way to strut your stuff in the Middle East than to effectively challenge Israel (it's like proving your "manhood" when you enter a new school by challenging the bully - you do it to gain respect).

I am increasingly convinced that this trend towards legitimacy of Islamic movements at the expense of secular institutions is gradually turning into an unstopable current. Moreover, the only way to fix this problem, if at all, is through a final settlement of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, and a valiant effort on behalf of today's elite to salvage their political legitimacy through better governance and a healthier relationship between the state and society.

Something tells me I shouldn't hold my breath!

Washington Times reports a somewhat confusing development

2006-08-21T08:53:00.000-05:00

The Washington Times is not a source I regularly read to catch up on developments. However, I did bump into an intriguing article today, as I browsed the web.

Joshua Mitnick, a Times reporter, writes from Tel Aviv,

Israel is mulling the reopening of peace negotiations with Syria -- frozen for seven years -- after a monthlong war with Hezbollah guerrillas in Lebanon, according to newspaper reports.

After years of ignoring the possibility of talks with Syria because of the U.S. effort to isolate President Bashar Assad, a growing number of voices is calling on the Israeli government to consider talks with Damascus, which could help sever the central link between Hezbollah and its main weapons sponsor, Iran.

Mitnick quotes Israeli parliament member Avshalom Vilan as saying,

In the short run, the mission has to be the separation of Syria from Hezbollah and Iran

and

Arab-Israeli wars often have been followed by successful peace talks. The best example is the landmark treaty between Israel and Egypt, which was concluded six years after the countries fought to a draw in the 1973 Yom Kippur War.

Mitnick even claims that Peretz is "speaking of investigating the potential for negotiations with Syria." However, he then goes on to say, that Olmert is opposed to the idea because he wouldn't want to "help end the Syrian isolation imposed by the United States."

Personally, I don't know what to make of this story, and the fact that it was written by a Washington Times reporter based in Tel Aviv. It definitely contradicts all apparent developments on the regional and international levels.

What can I say? As goes with all viewers, sitting and watching from the sidelines, we'll have to watch and wait for developments to transpire.

Harsh words

2006-08-21T07:55:00.000-05:00

Developments always move slower than one would like. However, to return to a situation in which the war between Hizballah and the Israelis is even more likely to ignite than before July 12 is the worst possible outcome.

No doubt, Lebanese politicians engage Hizballah in very tough negotiations as I type up this entry. Only Zeus knows what the outcome of these negotiations will be. However, as I mentioned previously on this blog, only Hizballah can decide to disarm, because doing so forcibly would simply mean the end of Lebanon (either a through a cataclysmic civil war, or "another round" of Israeli strikes, only this time, nothing will hold them back - i.e. bye bye, Army, Downtown Beirut, Lebanese State).

A good analogy of the situation Hizballah finds itself in right now would be an authoritarian ruler being asked to abdicate for the sake of his country. In fact, let me take this analogy one step further and suggest that Lebanon is currently in the midst of what could be termed a "regime change," which began the second Syrian troops started leaving the country. Will Hizballah bow out? Will it put the wellbeing of Lebanon, and its constituents, before its agenda? If so, then at what price?

As for France, and its commitment regarding the UN force, my thoughts echo those expressed by editorials published by the Wall Street Journal, and the New York Times. The Journal wonders whether UN resolution 1701 is still alive,

Most U.N. resolutions don't have the shelf-life of a gallon of milk, which isn't always a bad thing. But in the case of resolution 1701 - the cease-fire agreement for Lebanon and Israel adopted unanimously this month by the Security Council - things seem to be going sour even faster than that. And that is cause for serious unease.

And the Times mocks Jacques Chirac mercilessly for his "contribution" to the implementation of 1701,

It would be tempting to laugh about France's paltry commitment of 200 additional peacekeepers for Lebanon, if it weren't so dangerous. After insisting for years that they be treated like a superpower, the French are behaving as if they have no responsibility for helping dig out of the Lebanon mess.

Of course, considering that Lebanese parties are still in the midst of negotiating the near and not-so-near future, the UN force and its mission could very well be leverage that would no longer exist once it is deployed.

However, I remain as impatient as ever. At a time when the international community, and the Arab world are supposed to convey a message of strength, determination and generosity, all I see is trepidation. But then again, how much do I really see?

Hizballah burrying dead comrades

2006-08-19T11:00:00.000-05:00

Politics, and personal issues, aside.... You've got to give it to them. They put up quite a fight!

Q&A with South Korean newspaper

2006-08-19T08:15:00.000-05:00

Several days back, I was interviewed by a South Korean newspaper. They've published the interview in Q&A format. Here are a few selections from the article.

On your homepage, you write that "Religion is great, if only it is used as was originally intended." In the case of Lebanon on which you write, will you say that Hezbollah has taken the country hostage with a different version of the Koran? If yes, what is the original message?

Of course I believe that Hezbollah has taken the country hostage! Over the past few days, Lebanese have jokingly asked each other whether they have paid homage to their new military dictator!

As for my personal interpretation of religion vs. Hezbollah's, allow me to boil it down to the separation of religion and politics. I despise the "holier-than-thou" attitude. These people wear their religious garb, yet practice politics. When you criticize them, their supporters take to the streets and protest the fact that you insulted their religious symbols (a relatively new phenomenon in Lebanon, that has come about with the emergence of Hezbollah). These developments only serve to harden my position regarding the separation of state and "mosque" even more. It is clear that the image Hezbollah has for Lebanon is mutually exclusive with the vision I, and the majority of other Lebanese, have for our country.

How do you characterize Hezbollah? A resistance group, freedom fighters or a terrorist organization?

I classify Hezbollah as a Shi'a militia supported with funds and material from Iran, Syria and Shi'a who reside in Lebanon, the Gulf, Africa and all over the world.

At one point in Lebanon's history, there was a consensus to refer to it as a "resistance group." Today, that consensus has faded.

President Assad of Syria, who attributed victory to Hezbollah, said the crises helped create a new Middle East. Do you agree?

I think that Assad is an isolated and desperate president. Internationally and even in the Arab region, the man is a pariah! Of course, that scares me, because a desperate man can do very stupid things. However, whatever he said is simply false. Tell me what has changed! Do you see any differences? Okay... people are very emotional right now, but so what? Emotions are fleeting, and if nothing happens in the coming days and weeks, they will go back to business as usual.

Is it right to say Lebanon is back to where it was 50 years ago, as your prime minister qualified it? What do you think is the way forward now?

We did not go back 50 years, however we were taken back quite considerably. Lebanon's Council for Development and Reconstruction just announced that it will take at least a year to rebuild all the infrastructure and over $2 dbillion. Some estimates project 3 years -- and this is just infrastructure damage!

However, when we talk about Lebanon's economy, I am afraid that it all depends on political developments. A considerable number of factories were destroyed by Israeli bombs over the past month. These damages sum up to tens of millions of dollars in damage. The retail sector is, if anything, on life support, and the tourist industry can be characterized similarly.

It is safe to say that investors will only return if they believe that nothing similar to this war will happen any time in (at least) the near future. In order for them to be convinced, they will need to see a political settlement and a solution to the problem of Hezbollah's arms.

Check out the rest of it.

note: sorry about the mix-up. It turns out that the journalist who interviewed me was based in Finland.

What the Lebanese Army Really Means To Lebanese

2006-08-18T12:48:00.000-05:00

The Lebanese Army today basks in the spotlight - and for good reason, too. For the first time since its disintegration during the civil war, it deploys its personnel and material south of the Litani River. Numerous journalists and analysts have written articles assessing the army's capabilities. Most have been scathing. However, all have conveyed relief at its deployment in Southern Lebanon.

Some of these assessments have compared the army to Hizballah, for obvious reasons. They sought to satisfy the curiosity a few individuals betrayed regarding whether or not the Army could take the militia on, and disarm it. Of course, considering what the Israelis were able to accomplish in a month, there simply is no question about what Lebanon's antiquated armed forces would be able to accomplish. If it were ever to take Hizballah on, it would lose mightily.

So if our armed forces are so obviously weak, why are Lebanese so proud of it? Why does it foster such feelings of pride among most, if not all, Lebanese?

For an answer to that question, I will quote none other than Walid Jumblatt: "the Lebanese Army is the product of political consensus - consensus among all of Lebanon's political forces (and sects) - consensus that protects it, and allows it to fulfill its duties." Therefore, in certain respects, the Lebanese Armed Forces are not merely means to ends, but rather ends in themselves.

There would be nothing easier than for a foreign power to isolate a particular sect in Lebanon, help foster a militaristic culture, train its military-aged men for guerilla warfare, and spend hundreds of millions of dollars arming it to the teeth and preparing it for war. In other words, there is nothing special about Hizballah. If the Americans, French, Russians or Chinese decided to spend $20 - $50 million dollars a month on militarizing the Druze, Sunna, or Maronite communities, you would see the exact same outcome.

However, as I've already mentioned, nothing could be easier. The challenge for Lebanon and Lebanese lies in the national project - in choosing to be Lebanese. And despite our Army's impotence, we remain proud of it because it is a living, breathing symbol of that project. The Army reflects our society, and will only do what is acceptable to all of us. It is truly, Our Army.

One of my professors at Hopkins once said something that struck me. He pointed out that contrary to popular perceptions, he believed it much more difficult to effectively lead state institutions than private enterprises. Whereas leaders of the latter were single-minded in their determination to secure profits, leaders of the former needed to factor in and manage the often contradictory demands that emanate from the soceity(ies) they serve.