Dangers Ahead

From Stratfor.com

...Israeli forces are already in Lebanon. Its special forces are inside identifying targets for airstrikes. We expect numerous air attacks over the next 48 hours, as well as reports of firefights in southern Lebanon. We also expect more rocket attacks on Israel.

It will take several days to mount a full invasion of Lebanon. We would not expect major operations before the weekend at the earliest. If the rocket attacks are taking place, however, Israel might send several brigades to the Litani River almost immediately in order to move the rockets out of range of Haifa. Therefore, we would expect a rapid operation in the next 24-48 hours followed by a larger force later.

At this point, the only thing that can prevent this would be a major intervention by Syria with real guarantees that it would restrain Hezbollah and indications such operations are under way. Syria is the key to a peaceful resolution. Syria must calculate the relative risks, and we expect them to be unwilling to act decisively.

Therefore:

1. Israel cannot tolerate an insurgency on its northern frontier; if there is one, it wants it farther north.

2. It cannot tolerate attacks on Haifa.

3. It cannot endure a crisis of confidence in its military

4. Hezbollah cannot back off of its engagement with Israel.

5. Syria can stop this, but the cost to it stopping it is higher than the cost of letting it go on.

It would appear Israel will invade Lebanon. The global response will be noisy. There will be no substantial international action against Israel. Beirut's tourism and transportation industry, as well as its financial sectors, are very much at risk.

"Nobody knows how many rebellions, besides political rebellions, ferment in the masses of life which people earth."

Airport Being Hit Again

The airport is being shelled yet again!

Update: Fires erupted as a result of the fuel tanks being bombed at the airport.

Update 2: The more Israeli warplanes hit and kill Lebanese civilians, the more Hizbullah fights back. Hizbullah has shelled Safad in northern Israel killing one civilian and injuring tens others.

Update 3: The Damascus-Beirut International Highway is being shelled.

Update 4: News of 5 wounded in the Bekaa due to the Dahr il-Baidar highway shelling. Al-Mdairij bridge was bombed, next to Sawfar.

"Nobody knows how many rebellions, besides political rebellions, ferment in the masses of life which people earth."

Dahyeh In Beirut Being Shelled!

Israeli warships have started shelling the southern suburbs of Beirut and Israeli plan raid is attacking the fuel tanks at the international airport.

To Lebanon: my heart is with you.

Update: Israeli warplanes dropping hundreds of leaflets threatening of a brutal attack on the southern suburbs and Ain il-Rimmeneh, Hizbullah strongholds.

Update: Some are saying that Dahyeh has been hit and some say not. I don't know myself; still stuck in the beltway.

"Nobody knows how many rebellions, besides political rebellions, ferment in the masses of life which people earth."

They Did It!

Went to a meeting for two hours and guess what? Hizbullah did follow through on its threat and hit Haifa!

Update 1: Hizbullah is denying that it attacked Haifa. So who did it?

Update 2: More back and forth rockets across the border, with an increasing number of civilian casualties on both sides. Gosh, can't wait to get home to flip through the channels.

Update 3: An Israeli Minister has vowed to civilians in northern Israel to have Beirut burnt!

"Nobody knows how many rebellions, besides political rebellions, ferment in the masses of life which people earth."

Hizbullah Threatens More

Hizbullah just released a statement threatening Israel: If the Israeli Army shells the southern suburbs of Beirut (a Hizbullah stronghold), Hizbullah will shell Haifa! And this of course means that Hizbullah will start using some long-range artillery it has.

The Israeli army through Reuters has asked the Lebanese civilians residing in the southern suburbs of Lebanon to evacuate.

Update: Jumblatt released a statement which condemned the Israeli attacks, especially that the government is not responsible for what happened. He also added that now the Israeli soldiers are kidnapped, then perhaps it's a time to talk about getting back the Lebanese prisoners in Israel. He called on the importance of brokering a cease-fire via the help of the international community. (so....a bit soft on Hizbullah this time...)

Update: Raja will have no access to a computer for a while. Arranging for moving out of Beirut.

Update: Hizbullah hit Katyusha rockets on Safad and wounded 11 Israelis.

"Nobody knows how many rebellions, besides political rebellions, ferment in the masses of life which people earth."

Humanity Lost

Concerning the recent Lebanese-Israeli conflict:

I am not a pawn on the board of an imaginary game, and neither are the rest of the Lebanese, Palestinian and Israeli civilians whose lives are being toyed with. This behavior on the part of these leaders that were elected to lead their people is deplorable. I am infuriated that such risks and actions can be taken with absolute disregard of the lives that are at stake, the lives of the people that make a country what it is.

Has this region learned absolutely nothing from the last 50 plus years? Have all the past wars and deaths gone in vain? What kind of a civilization is this where leaders trivialize the lives of their citizens for their own personal causes? What kind of a civilization is this where people cheer army warfare?

The 21st century seems to have given way to no advances in humanitarian values. At the end of the day life on this planet is governed by the big guys playing their own private game of risk with us mere civilians as their pawns. We don’t know who what why or when, but it doesn’t matter because it serves some greater purpose.

Now I have a question for the big guys out there: What greater purpose is there than protecting the sanctity of a human life at all costs?

More updates from Lebanon

I still have electricity and an internet connection. I'll post entries until I am unable to.

Update 1 - 8:20 AM : The number of deaths in Lebanon has risen to twenty seven.

Update 2 - 8:23 AM: The Israeli Army has declared that one of the soldiers captured by Hizballah is Jewish, and the other is Druze.

Update 3 - 8:30 AM: Hizballah claims that it has launched over 70 missiles into Northern Israel. Naharaya. Kiriyat Shemona. Kiriya Shemona Airport. Roshbina. Roshbina Airport. Mt. Hermon. And other regions and towns that Hizballah boasts have never been hit since 1982.

Update 4 - 8:32 AM: Beirut's southern suburbs are being bombed. Israeli Navy ships can be seen from Beirut's airport.

Update 5 - 8:42 AM: Saad el Hariri was on his way to Beirut from China when the Israeli Air Force destroyed the airport runways. Hariri's plane was diverted to Larnaka, Cyprus.

Update 6 - 8:56 AM: The Israeli raid on Beirut's airport was conducted at 6:00 AM. Israeli Army radio declared that Israel is implementing an "air blockade" on Lebanon as a means of punishing the Lebanese government for not disarming Hizballah. The airport was hit with six rockets.

Update 7 - 9:05 AM: All exams for current and prospective students at the Lebanese University have been postponed indefinitely.

Update 8 - 9:14 AM: The main artery that connects Beirut to the South is a highway that pass underneath the airport runways that were just destroyed. Some of the Israeli missiles hit the runways at precisely the point where the tunnels pass. The tunnels are no longer usable.

Update 9 - 9:32 AM: Israeli fighter jets have just bombed the town of Bouday in the Baalbek Valley.

Update 10 - 9:38 AM: The Israelis actually bombed a Shi'a Mosque in Bouday.

Update 11 - 9:43 AM: Hizballah claims that it has repelled an Israeli force attempting to enter into Lebanese territory. They also claim that they have hit several major Israeli military bases with missles, and hit the Nahariya settlement again.

Update 12 - 10:01 AM: Israeli artillery is pounding the Hasbayya region. Aircraft have bombed the village of Bayyada.

Update 13 - 10:22 AM: The Middle East Quartet has just announced that its members are in the midst of intense discussions, the aim of which is to diffuse the situation on the Lebanese-Israeli border. They are trying to prevent the situation from developing into all-out war - i.e. Israeli invasion.

Update 14 - 10:23 AM: The Israeli Navy has just initiated a maritime blockade on Lebanon to complement the aerial blockade.

Lebanon's tourist industry employs around 500,000 individuals in a country with a population of 3.5 million. It is the country's largest employer. Projections for 2006 were that Lebanon would gain $4.5 billion from tourists. Poof!

Update 15 - 11:02 AM: The North-South Highway between Beirut and Saida was cleared of rubble about an hour ago by the Lebanese Army's Core of Engineers. It is now clear for those daring or desperate enough to pass through.

Update 16 - 11:10 AM: Israeli Defense Minister: We will not allow Hizballah to return to its positions on the Lebanese-Israeli Border.

Update 17 - 11:17 AM: Lebanon's Minister of Transportation, Mohammad Safadi: Segment of runway can be fixed within 48 hours, but allowing planes to land and take off will need a political decision.... An MEA plane landed and taxied away from the runway seconds before the Israeli strike.

Update 18 - 11:30 AM: Lebanese who can are beginning to seek refuge in Syria, of all places!

Update 19 - 12:14 PM: Family and relatives are starting to top of their vehicles' gas tanks.

Update 20 - 12:25 PM: Israeli artillery pounding eastern and southern entrances of Ayta village in the South, trapping the residents in their homes. Developing story...

Something tells me that everything the Israelis are doing right now is preparation for something much bigger. Going somewhere safer. Will try to update as much as I can.

They Hit the Airport!

Israeli warplanes fired three rockets towards the Beirut International Airport! Two runways were destroyed.

Update: Hizbullah fired Katyusha rockets on Naharia north of Israel.

Update 2: An Israeli has died due to the rocket attacks on Naharia and three others were injured.

Update 3: Reports say that the airport was not only hit by Israeli warplanes, but also by Israeli warships stationed not far from the coast.

Update 4: Al-Manar TV, Hizbullah run TV station, was hit by Israeli warplanes. The TV station is in Haret Hreik, Beirut. Tens of wounded.

Update 5: The Israeli Army claimed that the airport was hit because it is used to transport weapons for Hizbullah.

Raja will take over while I snooze.

"Nobody knows how many rebellions, besides political rebellions, ferment in the masses of life which people earth."

Convictions and Prayers

The Lebanese government, despite the objection of the two Hizbullah-affiliated ministers and the abstention of an Amal-affiliated minister, has declared in its latest statement that the government did not know of, is not responsible for, and does not endorse what happened on the Lebanese internationl southern borders. The statement also asserted that the Lebanese government is willing and ready to work with the UN and third-party states to resolve the critical situation. Apart from that of course, the statement included a strong condemnation of the Israeli attacks on Lebanon's infrastructure and civilians.

Prime Minister Seniora defended the government's statement. "Yes, we did not know of the attacks nor we endorse such escalation." He said that not endorsing a Hizbullah attack on Israel (including the kidnapping of two Israeli soldiers) does not mean that we do not consider Israel an occupying force, occupying the Shebaa Farms. He called on the Lebanese to be calm and united in the face of escalations.

On the other hand, Sayyid Nasrallah warned (or shall we say threatened) the Lebanese of acting in a way that would create a cover for Israeli aggression. But who are you to tell the Lebanese what to do? No one in Lebanon has the power to tell you what to do.

And then the Syrian Foreign Minister Shara'a declared as he stood next to an Iranian official in Damascus that the reason for the escalations in Lebanon and Palestine is due to the "Occupation". My question: What about the Golan Heights? Has that region been already liberated?

Last but not least, Aoun, Hizbullah's strategic ally, has told PM Seniora in a phone conversation that he supports any decision the government settles on. I wonder where all the insults that were being hurled on the government for the past month went. If Aoun is a "sovereignist", then how does he explain Hizbullah's solo move? And wouldn't his endorsement of the government right now be a contradiction to what he has been saying all along, including calls to overthrow the Cabinet?

I am offended and worried. Yet, right now the only convictions keeping me going are that the government has acted in a manner that represented many Lebanese and that the Lebanese people believe in their country and in the good life just enough not to allow Lebanon become a ghost town .

I'm praying.

Update: It is clear from tomorrow's newspapers (already out in the Levant) that the military escalations will continue for a couple of days.


"Nobody knows how many rebellions, besides political rebellions, ferment in the masses of life which people earth."

Breaking News Flowing

Raja's been covering the troubling events in the South since this morning; it's still 4PM here in the beltway. So I'll help him keep the updates flowing:

• The Israeli government has given the green light for military incursions on Lebanon.
• Israeli warplanes as of last hovered over Al-Nehmeh (suburbs of Beirut).

Let's hope that nothing more happens during the wee hours of the morning.

This was all so unnecessary and goes to show that the national dialogue meetings were useless. All these private meetings with Saad Hariri. All to no avail. Nasrallah is sending a message to all that Hizbullah will not change nor alter its strategies that justify its existence.

Again, history repeats itself. In the late '60s, it was the Palestinian question that was bigger than us, and now it's Hizbullah. It's bigger than any Lebanese government's policies.

I don't know what's in store for us. I"ll follow the news and only time will tell.

Update - 10:20PM (Lebanon's time): Israeli warplanes destroy Al-Awwali bridge next to Saida.

Update - 9:15PM (Lebanon's time): the alleged raid on al-Damour bridge has led to some phone lines being cut.

Update - 11:35PM: My family decided to move from Bhamdoun (prime mountain destination) to Tripoli (the north) tomorrow morning.

Update - Past midnight: Israeli warplanes raided over Al-Nehmeh and al-Dilhamiyye bridge in the Bekaa. Settlers in Northern Israel on the borders with Lebanon were asked to spend the night in the shelters. The Israeli government has asked that the international community request from Lebanon the dissolution of Hizbullah and the fulfillment of the UNSCR 1559 mandate.

Update - 2:30AM: Hizbullah hit northern Israel with rockets.

"Nobody knows how many rebellions, besides political rebellions, ferment in the masses of life which people earth."

an oblivious resident

It appears that the "warriors of the South" have went ahead with another apparently successful kidnapping operation. Well... so much for their claim of "defending Lebanon from Israeli aggression."

Over here in Ras Beirut, I am completely oblivious to Hizballah's shenanigans - social, political and military! I hope the Israelis don't change that. In fact, the way I learnt of this new escalation in the South was through the efforts of the erstwhile journalists of BBC.

On that note, I'm gonna turn on the TV and try to get what the hell is goin' down.

Update: It appears that Israel has limited its retaliation to the South. Fighter aircraft have destroyed three or four bridges/overpasses and one power transmition station. As for the rest of Lebanon, well... so much for the tourist season!

Update 2: I just saw a video feed on LBCI that showed a Lebanese Army checkpoint that was destroyed by an Israeli missle. I saw several overturned cars, and at least one lightly injured man. Several ambulances were also on the scene.

Update 3: BBC reports that two Lebanese civilians have been killed.

Update 4: Former President Amin el Gemeyel was just interviewed on LBCI. His talking points included referring back to the 1969 Cairo Agreement, preventing individual parties from taking decisions that affect all Lebanese, returning the focus onto fixing Lebanon's internal order, and avoiding a war that is bigger than Lebanon and one that thousands of Lebanese have already died for. He has called for an emergency Hiwar Watani session to deal with the latest developments.

Update 5: Butros Harb says that this Hizballah attack was a complete surprize. Especially considering the delicate political situation and the tourist season. "decisions pertaining to war and peace can only be taken by all Lebanese, not just one party.... I call for an emergy session of the Hiwar el Watani.... Hizballah's operation breached Lebanon's sovereignty.... Hizballah must now act responsibly and take into consideration the interests of all Lebanese and Lebanon's infrastructure.... Hizballah's operations must be overseen by a legitimate body...."

Update 6: LBCI reports six dead Israeli soldiers.

Update 7: My mom and I are now discussing where would be the safest place to take the family.

Update 8: LBCI reports that three more civilians were killed underneath a bridge targeted by Israeli fighter jets on the North-South highway next to Sour/Tyre.

Update 9: The Zahrani power station may have just been hit.

Update 10: The Zahrani power station actually was just hit.

Update 11: EDL rejects claims that the Zahrani power station was destroyed.

Update 12: Israelis have destroyed several more bridges including one in Wadi el Akhdar

Update 13: Israeli jets continue to fly and hit targets all over the South (esp. over Nabatieh and Marjouyoun). Warships of the Israeli Navy have also been seen on Lebanese territorial waters

Update 14: Hizballah supporters in Beirut are celebrating by driving around, honking horns, and using firecrackers.

Update 15: Tele Liban, Lebanon's official state television channel, is currently running a live cooking show.

Update 16: Hizballah claims that two of its soldiers were killed during the operation. One of whom is Sour/Tyre resident, Nasim Nisr.

Update 17: Shi'a Sayyed Mohammad Hassanein Fadlallah has called and congratulated his counterpart, and Hizballah leader, Hassan Nasrallah

Update 18: Future TV is now playing an Egyptian soap opera. the only two channels with live coverage are LBCI, Hizballah's Manar, (and just recently, New TV).

Update 19: Palestinian refugees are celebrating in their camps, and al Manar filed a report with Samir Quntar's family at their home in Abey, in which they congratulated and thanked Hizballah for the operation.

You know what's funny... these past couple of days as I walked around Beirut and took all those pictures, I thought to myself: "maybe if we're actually given the time to rebuild our country, without interludes of war and complete destruction every ten to twenty years, maybe we could actually start getting things right!" How Naive!

Update 20: My sister just walked in and asked: "so what did stupid Hizballah just do?"

Update 21: New TV is just playing reruns of "no comment" shots they recorded earlier in the day. LBCI continues live coverage. Reports that Israeli Appaches have joined the fray over Jezzine.

Update 22: Druze Sheikh el Akl Bahjat Ghaith has just congratulated Hizballah, after receiving delegations from the SSNP and Wiam Wahhab.

Update 23: Three New TV journalists just injured by Israeli missle. They have been trasported to a hospital.

Taking short break. Will be back to report any significant developments.

Update 24: New TV journalists were hurt because they drove into a crater left by an Israeli missle. Their injuries are light. There were just two of them, not three. One of their last names is Aridi - I forgot their full names, but Aridi stuck in my mind for obvious reasons.

Update 25: Samir Jaejae: "What just happened is dangerous. From this point on decisions to launch military operations can only be made at the level of Council of Ministers. The Lebanese government must make the decision to fire even one bullet. We cannot allow simply one party to wage a private war against Israel. You can't have one person act and then have the Lebanese government cover their mess. The government will collapse that way. If the situation continues like this, we'll have a collection of militias in Lebanon. We have tens of prisoners in Syria, how would people react if we start kidnapping Syrian soldiers?"

Update 26: AP reports that the Israeli military announced killing several Hizballah militiamen attempting to infiltrate into an Israeli position.

Update 27: Hassan Nasrallah is giving a press conference. He is out of breath. He is sweating.

Update 28: NASRALLAH (rough translation): The operation took place at 9:05 AM. The Israeli response began at 10:30 AM. The . This is the only way to move forward. This is the natural choice. It is the only way to free the prisoners. If anybody has any options please tell me. Also let them tell me why those means have not succeeded over the past 20 years. We are highlighting to the world our cause. There are over 10,000 Lebanese, Palestinian and Arab prisoners that need to be released. Our aim is to close the issue of prisoners completely. And the only way to do so is to take Israeli prisoners of our own. We also seek to help the Palestinians in Gaza. This is a message to the Israelis: our self-control is not weakness. It is merely taking calculated moves.

We tell the Israelis that the only way to free the Israelis is through indirect negotiations and a prisoner exchange. The Israelis and the World can do whatever they want, but they won't get anywhere. No military operation will get anywhere if the objective is to free the soldiers. If the military operation is intended to punish Lebanon, then they should expect surprizes. We have been preparing for an Israeli invasion since the day the Israelis were kicked out.

Message to Lebanese: Nobody should behave in a way that would encourage the enemy. now is the time that we should unite. All politicians should act in a patriotic way. The government should act in a patriotic way. We acted in a patriotic way - you can agree or disagree with me. The government is asking us to keep Lebanon in mind. I say okay. But the way to keep Lebanon in mind is to prevent its exposure to Israeli aggression. I have gotten a number of phone calls saying that we should return the soldiers as soon as possible without asking for anything in return. That is not a reasonable request.

He goes on to convey messages to the Palestinian people and the Lebanese press. Couldn't really translate for this entry. sorry.

Update 29: An Arab news channel reports that the two Israeli soldiers captured are Druze.

Update 30: LBCI reports that US Secretary of State Rice is pressuring the Syrian regime to pressure Hizballah to release the Israeli prisoners.

Update 31: Nasrallah says that Hizballah has been working on this operation for five months.

Update 32: Lebanese government held a meeting, but could not agree on a unified position.

My eyes are about to pop out of my skull! Taking a break.

Update 33: Just came back from a walk on Beirut's Corniche. Everything seems normal. People are walking on the streets. Traffic is bad. People seem oblivious.

Going to relatives. Who knows... maybe I'll be exposed to some new information there.

Udpate 34: Nothing from the relatives. However, the Council of Ministers released a statement essentially declaring that they were not informed of the operation that Hizballah conducted in the South and that consequently, they will not be held responsible for it. Amal and Hizballah Ministers had the audacity to disaprove of that statement even though Nasrallah himself said that no state authority was informed of the operation.

Update 35: Future TV reports that a considerable number of Israeli Aircraft are now flying over the Chouf and Bekaa regions.

Update 36: The Damour Bridge (just south of Beirut) has just been destroyed.

I wouldn't want to be in General Michel Aoun's shoes right now! For the past month, he's been screaming about the unconstitutional way the majority has been execizing its powers while in government. And now, his erstwhile allies go and do something like this! Will be back in a couple of hours with more updates.

Wednesday, June 12, 2006.

Update 37 - 12:36 AM : Just got back after a drive around Beirut, and Aramoun/Khalde, just south of Beirut. I had to drive through the airport highway - which was a terrifying experience. But Beirut is quiet. The police are everywhere. The streets have emptied. It seems too much like the calm before the storm.

Update 38 - 12:47 AM : A well-connected highschool friend called me from Washington DC. I am to expect the worst. I am preparing for it.

Update 39 - 1:15 AM : Future TV reports that Prime Minister Seniora is in contact with World Leaders, and will be in Cairo on Saturday. Phone lines with Southern Lebanon have also been cut as a result of the Israeli raid that destroyed the Damour Bridge.

It's almost 2 o'clock in the morning. I'm going to bed. If something wakes me up, and I can update this blog, I'll do so.

If only...

A powerful contrast between our proclaimed ideals and the reality we live in.

Verdun going the way of Hamra and Monot?

Verdun Street is set for a major overhaul. Sewage pipes, electricity cables, telephone lines and more are to be dug up from underneath Verdun Street and replaced as soon as the summer tourist season comes to a close. This infrastructure overhaul is part of a more comprehensive plan for Verdun that includes beatification and improved traffic management. In short, Verdun appears to be going the way of Hamra and Monot streets - and to be frank, it is about time!
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Verdun Street, beginning at Concorde Center is to be converted into a one-way street, with traffic moving away from Downtown and towards Ramlet el Baida. Opposing traffic will be redirected to a parallel street, which I believe is called "al-Murshid" Street. Al Murshid is also currently a two-way street that will be appropriately converted.
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The President of Verdun's Merchant Association recently agreed to transform the street surface into basalt cobblestone. Initially, he opposed the idea because of what he saw as high noise pollution levels that resulted from cars rolling over the stones, and the low speeds at which drivers usually drive over them - resulting in unnecessary traffic.
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The arguments that won him over were the following:

1. Basalt cobble stones are more durable than conventional asphalt, and safer because tires stick better to it. Moreover, maintenance is easier because you can simply remove the damaged stones and replace them.
2. Slow speeds are good for the stores because drivers stuck in traffic look around
3. Slow driving is also beneficial because it makes Verdun more pedestrian friendly (i.e. much less likely for speeding cars to ram into pedestrians)

Another significant development in Verdun: The authorities plan to sell that monstrosity of a police station that takes up so much prime real-estate smack in the middle of the neighborhood. If they do follow through with this plan, they’d hit two birds with one stone: 1) provide themselves with much-needed financial resources and 2) make better use of that land.
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All in all things may be looking up for Verdun. Now lets see if, and how well, all these improvements get implement.

why Lebanese pedestrians don't use sidewalks!

What to do with all this Gold?!?!

Here are some facts about the issue you should be aware of (Source: Executive Magazine):

• Lebanon currently owns 9.22 million ounces of gold - which adds up to 286.8 tons
  
• The gold was bought mainly during the 60's and 70's
  
• It constitutes the largest gold reserve in the Middle East and North Africa
  
• Lebanon ranks 19th in the world behind countries such as the UK, which owns 311.3 tons and Austria, which owns 307.5 tons. The first place in gold tonnage goes to the US, second place to Germany and third to the IMF.
  
• Based on today's prices, the value of Lebanon's gold reserve is around $6.5 billion. That sum amounts to 32.5 percent of GDP and 16.25 percent of the national debt.
  
• The gold is stored in the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and in the Banque du Liban vaults.

Now Comes the Question: What do you do with this gold?

a. sell it?
b. maintain the status quo?
c. do something else with it?

Lebanon's Executive Magazine says sell it!

Through an article titled "Waste of Space," the Executive Magazine presented the following argument in favor of selling Lebanon's gold reserve:

The money made from selling the gold could be used to alleviate Lebanon from its debt burden. If sold at today's prices the government will save more than $650 million a year in interest payments on the debt.

This argument was supported by the following facts presented in the article:

Lebanon currently manages to pull off a Primary Surplus. What does that mean? It means that if we disregard paying of interests on our debt, our government actually makes more money than it uses. Consequently, reducing our debt is now the primary means through which the government may reduce the hemorrhage we refer to as the "budget deficit."

Gold price cycles are very long. Today, they are at 25-year highs; but as soon as political tensions ease, or maybe Austria decides to sell a significant portion of its gold reserves, prices will deflate, and remain low for quite some time. Therefore, the Lebanese government should sell its reserves now, as doing so would result in a relatively profitable transaction.

The Lebanese gold simply does nothing. "Lebanon's gold reserves are sitting idly in vaults, yielding absolutely no return and costing the government in storage and safe keeping charges." A 1980's law forbids the Lebanese government from using the gold for anything. It can't be used as collateral for borrowing or as a hedging tool. In short, the initial intent for the gold to provide investors with confidence in Lebanon during tough times simply no longer exists because the gold is untouchable - it is as valuable to Lebanon as King Tutankhamen's treasure is to Egypt (actually less valuable, since the latter at least brings in tourist dollars)!

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Okay... So those are the arguments presented by the Executive Magazine for selling the gold (with a little of my own salt and pepper). They seem very convincing, but I would have loved to read an article that argued for keeping the reserves in the same issue. Nevertheless, I am impressed because by publishing such an opinion, the Executive Magazine sends out a very subtle but powerful message: public opinion (or at least, the opinion of its readers) on this particular issue matters.

And who knows? Maybe if you treat the public as Citizens, and provide them with the information they need to make good decisions on important issues, they will reciprocate by making those decisions. Daily Star people (especially editorial page people); are you reading this?!?!?

Holiday Inn, Downtown. What's Up?

Have you ever wondered why the Holiday Inn in Downtown Beirut remains a hollowed-out ruin; in stark contrast to its next door neighbor, The Phoenicia, and the rest of Downtown Beirut?

Well, to be honest with you, like the majority of Beirutis and Lebanese, I have simply reconciled myself with the structure, and come to see it as simply another part of the landscape. This phenomenon reminds me of how individuals living in former heavily mined war-zones simply get used to deadly contraptions in their environment, and live as if things were always that way - to them, the mines become "normal."

Anyways, going back to the main point of this entry: why is it that the Holiday Inn (one of Beirut's largest buildings) still awaits renovation? I always thought that it was such a large structure with so much damage that finding an investor willing to commit the necessary resources was, and remains, an impossible task. However, considering the amount of money currently being poured into Lebanon's real-estate and tourism industries, such a hypothesis simply falls apart.

Indeed, the problem is not, and has never been a lack of investors. The effective owners of the hotel (an investment firm linked to the Kuwaiti government) have been anxious to renovate the structure and launch a new hotel for quite some time now (i.e. years). Unfortunately though, they are faced with an obstacle that is an all too familiar one in Lebanon: tenants who pay rent based on the old rent laws, and who refuse to leave!

How has this happened? How does a hotel host tenants?

Well, it turns out that even though the building carries the Holiday Inn logo, it was never entirely a hotel! Rather, it was split into two sections of roughly equal proportions: one section was the actual hotel, and the other was an office building. And today, it appears that there are a handful of tenants who refuse to leave their premises, and in doing so, prevent the building’s owners from realizing their plans.

Considering the ordeal that the Holiday Inn is currently experiencing, I wonder what Downtown would have looked like today had Solidere not existed.

*photo courtesy of al Mashriq

We are dying!

Three days ago, a relative died in a car accident. She was 24 years old, and a recent university graduate. One could say that her life had just begun.

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The irony of her death lies in where the accident occurred. She died on the jewel in the crown of Lebanon's road network: the airport highway. An immense stretch of pavement that is one of Lebanon's most modern structures and, one would think, among its safest. Instead, it is a death-trap. One that, in a good year, claims lives on a monthly basis.

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If any particular issue highlights how politically swindled the Lebanese population is, it is road safety. More Lebanese die and suffer sever injury on roads than anywhere else. And since life precedes even material concerns, you would think that the number-one issue on the Lebanese political agenda would be road safety. But it isn't.

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Politically, the most prominent issues on the average Lebanese's plate are: 1) Lebanon's "strategic alignment" in the region, 2) Protecting or Confiscating Hizballah's weapons 3) Relations with Syria, 4) and all the other mumbo jumbo that we watch on TV and read on the newspapers every day of our brief existence on this planet.

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It is clear. It has always been clear. For all the talk of democracy in Lebanon, politics in this country is very much an exclusive game for the zu'ama. The citizen's only role is to obediently support the za'im he or she was born to support - and die for that za'im, if necessary.

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Well. Apparently, we are dieing every day. Discretely dieing as the country's top political honchos play their game. On that note, I wish to make a humble request. I do not know who's going to read it, but I'm going to throw it out there anyway:

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Dear Head Honchos:

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Every sovereign country needs to figure out where it stands with regards to its immediate and not so immediate neighbors. But managing the affairs of a State goes beyond foreign policy. We need your attention. We need Representatives; not thieves, or a parliament filled with wannabe foreign ministers. Today, we're not dieing because of your immediate decisions, but we're dieing nonetheless. We are dieing because of your incompetence!

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Humble Citizen

Beirut - An effort to make it a little more pedestrian-friendly

At least someone around here is making some good decisions! All over Beirut's streets, a particular type of tree is being planted on sidewalks. Not only is the tree aesthetically pleasing, but it is also brilliantly functional. Here, take a look:

Notice how the trunk is really slender, whereas the foliage spreads out like an umbrella? Of course, this is a young tree, so the folliage will expand even more. On the other hand, the trunk thickens only by a bit (I've seen a few of the adult trees). The result is a tree that does not take too much space from Beirut's already narrow sidewalks, yet provides cover to pedestrians from the sun. In other words, here you have a tree that makes Beirut at least a little more pedestrian-friendly.

Here's how a few recently-planted trees look on a streatch of sidewalk.

Now I wish to present you with a contrast. In fact, a perfect example of how good intensions can go horribly wrong!

The trees on this sidewalk were probably planted by the owners of the restuarant (that is to the left of the picture). Aesthetically, the trees could be appealing. However, in a practical sense the trees are aweful!

During the day, the only living things they protect from Beirut's scorching sun are children, pets and vermin. As for adults, the trees are so short, that they turn the sidewalk into an obstable course. Consequently, rather than making the sidewalk more pedestrian-friendly they, in this case, push adults (and tall children) onto a street that cars barely squeeze through.

Considering that the trees in the first two pictures are newer, and appear to be part of a systematic government effort, I am a bit pleased! As I said in the beginning of this entry, at least someone around here is making some good decisions!

talk about overdoing it!

Ever wonder why services (taxis) in Beirut are so damn cheap - as opposed to the prices of almost everything else? Well... we always knew there were just too many of them! But how many?

According to Emerging Lebanon's 2006 Report, "there are estimated to be at least 30,000 registered taxis in Lebanon [most of which, operate in Bierut]." Again, according to the report, that number is around 30% more than the number of taxis in London - a city with a day-time population of 12-14 million people!!!

Go figure!

Could this be the beginning of something new?

I just visited a beacon of "medical tourism" in Lebanon. It felt great. Stepping inside the building was almost like stepping into a five-star hotel! The hospital is a block away from the Gefinor Rotana Hotel, and a five-minute drive from Le Phoenicia Intercontinental - two of Beirut's top hotels.

I should hand it to the owners though. At first, I was somewhat skeptical of the relatively obscure location of the building. But considering where it is situated relative to the aforementioned hotels, and the expected clientele, I doubt they could have found a better spot!

So now, I guess, when a Khaleeji princess or prince needs hospital treatment, they fly in, and admit themselves into the "five-star" Clemenceau Medical Center. Of course, their family flies in with them and get rooms at the Gefinor Rotana hotel, that is just two-minutes away, walking distance (or the Phoenecia - depending on what suits their tastes).

Family members take turns visiting their sick sibling, parent or child. While one or two are continuously present in the hospital, the others go shopping, head to the beach, or even go skiing. At the end of the trip, everyone's happy: the khaleejis for getting better and having a blast, the Medical Center for the paying client, the doctors because of increased employment opportunities and the Hotel, as well as other enterprises that benefited from the visiting family.

There, my friends, you have "medical tourism." Now the question is: can Lebanese milk it for all its worth? The potential is there, but we'll have to wait and see.

Coming soon: