Some of us have had the honour and pleasure of being taught by Prof. Yahya Sadowski at the AUB.
The Financilal Times
link: http://news.ft.com/cms/s/4242d91e-ba5c-11d9-a27b-00000e2511c8.html
US determined to keep up heat on Syria
By Guy Dinmore in Washington
Published: May 1 2005 17:25 | Last updated: May 1 2005 17:25
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The US will keep up pressure on Syria long after the withdrawal of its forces from Lebanon, US officials say, outlining a policy that analysts believe is aimed at destabilising the regime led by President Bashar al-Assad.
Responding to last week's withdrawal, the Bush administration alleged that not all Syrian intelligence forces had quit Lebanon. It insisted that Syria keep out of Lebanon's elections this month and allow the “disbanding and disarming” of militia forces in Lebanon.
For the moment the US has no plans to send its ambassador, Margaret Scobey, back to Damascus. She was recalled in February after the assassination in Beirut of Rafiq Hariri, the former prime minister. “She will return to Damascus when we feel it's useful for her to return,” a State Department spokesman said.
Officials point out that the US still has a long list of grievances against Syria: its alleged development of chemical weapons and possibly bioweapons; support for militant Palestinian groups; co-operation with Iran in terrorism; its failure to stop Iraqi insurgents using the country as a base; and the shelter it gives to Iraq's former ruling Ba'athists.
Flynt Leverett, a former official in the first Bush administration and author of Inheriting Syria: Bashar's Trial By Fire, said President George W. Bush was moving away from a policy of engagement that had never been properly formulated towards a policy that was “basically regime change”.
More US officials were now inclined in that direction, accepting that forcing Syria out of Lebanon would cause the regime to start to unravel, said Mr Leverett, an analyst at the Brookings Institution. While the US was not gearing up for military action, it believed regime change could be done “on the cheap” through destabilisation.
However, the risk of unintended consequences was very high in both Lebanon and Syria. If the regime in Damascus collapsed and, for the moment, there were signs the withdrawal had made it stronger then the ensuing chaos could lead to a heavily Islamist replacement, Mr Leverett warned.
Yahya Sadowski, of the American University of Beirut, said US policy could be described as “constructive instability”, with the Bush administration believing in general that democracy could emerge out of turmoil.
“The Americans will make what trouble they can for the Syrians, presuming that this will at least reduce Syria's ability to make trouble for anyone else,” Professor Sadowski commented. “If, at some future date, this should trigger political changes in Syria, Donald Rumsfeld [defence secretary] will remind us all that ‘democracy is messy'.”
US diplomats in Damascus insist pressure is aimed at change of behaviour, not regime. But they say Mr Assad has not accepted there is no give and take, and that he has no choice but to deliver.
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9 comments:
Thank you, Sadowski, for another platitude.
Sadowski's an entertaining character, but not up to par when it comes to analysis.
Most of his predictions about the future of Lebanon that he made now two years ago have proven completely false (and I have it in writing and dated in my notes).
I realize he is one of AUB's most popular professors, but popularlity does not equate with brilliance.
But at a university where few professors reach out to students (especially in ps), he is somewhat of a breathe of smoke filled air (the guy smokes constantly).
LP,
I was also a Sadowski student. I'd just like to say that he showed me "the light". Before I took his Political Economy class in the Srping of 2000 or 2001, politics for me was the mine field that most Lebanese percieve it to be. When I took that class though, I got an alternative view of politics: a sense that it could be a noble calling, and that there was much more to it than sectarian bickering.
As for his predictions, I cannot but agree with you. He taught that entire class based on a doomsday scenario for the Lebanese economy. Today, even after Hariri's murder, the pound is stable, our debt has miraculously shrank (and I mean miraculously! no one knows how), and we somehow manage to stay afloat. I don't think even God can explain that one my friend! However, let me just lay out the premise of his argument for you, which at least in my opinion, was sound:
1. Lebanon was bleeding foreign currency as a result of debt servicing and imports
2. The only reason we didn't hit a foreign-reserve crisis was because Saudi Arabia and Kuwait were continually infusing hundreds of millions of dollars into our Central Bank at least twice a year(it appears that Iran financed Hizballah in their way, and the Gulf countries financed Hariri in their own way).
3. At the time, let's not forget that oil prices ranged from a low of $15 to a high of $25 per barrel. Saudi Arabia was struggling to tackle its own debt problems, and Kuwait wasn't doing too well either....
4. How the hell was Sadowski supposed to know that oil prices were going to sky-rocket to $40 per barrel.
So, lets not be too harsh on him! ;)
Doha, Reem, and Raja,
You're right. Your points are very well taken. The atmosphere is a bit different here now, so people who took his class recently (ie, last semester) got kind of ticked.
But I'm totally with you when it comes to critical thinking. He may not have provided the most clear analysis, but he is one of the only professors who inspired us to think in class and care about ideas. Most other professors merely asked us to shut up and write.
My favorite professor is Samir Seikaly. That guy is amazing and incredibly critical. I was initially intimidated in his class, but he really warms to you if you can actually respond to his questions intelligently. However, Seikaly is never quoted in the popular media.
hummbumm,
Yeah, we are kind of a niche group. I didn't realize it until this post either. In fact, from the dates given, I think I am the youngest. I've found my youth to be helpful and a hindrance sometimes.
When discussing the recent (I can't believe I'm modifying this phrase, it's so amazing!) Syrian presence with my elderly Palestinian relatives, I could not understand why they stood by Syria so closely. It was not until one relative poured his heart out about the Syrians saving them from everyone (ie, Amal, Jumblatt, Geagea) that I understood his undying devotion to the Syrians.
The only Syrians I knew harmed me and those closest to me.
hummbumm,
Do you think the older generation will return? That is what a lot of people on the ground are saying.
I even have relatives talking about returning. But everyone is hesitant. They want to know if the elections will actually mean anything. We want to know if the elections will mean something.
Oddly, it is both of us working together that will guarantee Lebanon's future.
But do you think we'll be seeing a lot of people coming back?
Lebanon is a great country if you are rich and can afford all of the amenities.
I don't know whether I'm going to leave or not, but my father is pressing me to go to Dubai or the US.
I would love to live here if I could afford one of those apartments in Verdun, Ramleit al Bayda, Sassine, or a big mansion in Rabieh. From there the world looks great.
But living here in the condition I do throughout the year is really taxing and not worth the money paid in return. I think the best relationship someone can have with Lebanon right now is to be really rich, have a big house in their village, a big apartment in a swanky location in Beirut, not care about politics, and only come here during the summer and religious holidays.
But right now we're working to make things better.
In my own buildings the owners are starting to repair things. There is probably going to be a new apartment rental law soon, which is desperately needed.
Hariri started fixing the streets and planting trees on them. Now more and more people are planting gardens and more quaint shops are opening.
But it was really scary to see everything stop until just last month. Everything was on hold until Bahia and Nora held their massive spectacle.
hummmbummm,
its sad... but everything you wrote rings a bell in me too! I'm a bit younger than you though, and I still have the energy to want to make a difference. Hopefully, by the time I'm done, the trafic will be better! ;)
I used to go through those identity crises, too. I've lived in a bunch of different places.
I'll tell you, it means a lot more to be Lebanese in France, Africa, or the US than it does in Lebanon.
I found myself becoming more sectarian in Lebanon and France, but much less in Africa and the US.
i struggled for a long time between a Lebanese, French, and American identity. Getting citizenship in Africa meant little to my parents, and i would never completely fit into the culture there.
I still identify with the three main cultures in my life. But I gave up worrying about what they did to me a long time ago. I think that fretting was something I picked up in the US.
In France, Lebanon, and Africa identity really didn't matter that much. In France I was tainted French (tainted by America, but with an overly Bois de Bologne accent). In Lebanon, I am like millions of other foreign influenced Lebanese. In Africa, I was just Lebanese regardless of where I came from.
Does anyone know where is Sadowski now?
(man this is way too late of a comment)
"Sadowski" is currently in China. How do I know? He is my father!
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