Thursday, December 21, 2006

Fortune Telling Lebanon's Future

Today in Lebanon,

Security

Reuters reported that Lebanese police found and confiscated large quantities of explosives, detonators and timers in houses owned by members of a pro-Syrian group in north Lebanon on Thursday, security sources said. They said police had also moved to encircle some offices of the Syrian Social Nationalist Party (SSNP) in Beirut after making some arrests in the northern Koura province. Alas, the state flexes its miniscule muscles. I Expect protesters tomorrow to chant against an "autocratic" and "dictatorial" regime.

Politics

The Daily Star reported, "A meeting of Parliament's Administration and Justice Committee scheduled for Wednesday was cancelled after a clash between" MPs Neamatallah Abi Nasr and Walid Eido. Apparently, "Abi Nasr had taken issue with Eido's rejection at a separate committee meeting earlier this week of a proposal to create a separate electoral governorate in Mount Lebanon comprising the qadas of Kesrouan-Ftouh and Jbeil." You know what really caught my attention here: the fact that a parliamentary committee is actually meeting! So parliament's doors are locked, but committees are holding meetings? Interesting

Economy

The Daily Star reported, "hundreds of bankers, businessmen and merchants held a meeting at Beirut's Phoenicia Inter-Continental Hotel on Wednesday to condemn the standoff between the government and the opposition over the latter's demand for more influence in Cabinet." If Lebanese were sane, and Lebanese politics not so dysfunctional, this group would constitute the most influential body in the country. Politicians would appeal to them for support, and would coordinate pulic-private initiatives to help boost economic performance. But, of course, Lebanese are not sane, and politics in Lebanon is dysfunctional... which brings me to the real news of the day,

What International Developments Will Steer Lebanon In The Near Future?

Yesterday, in a press conference, President Bush emphasized commitment to the Iraq mission despite the fact that his party lost both houses of Congress, and his recent declaration that the US is not winning the war. The New York Times writes that as he spoke, he "showed no indication that he was inclined to change goals or pull out of Iraq." The newspaper writes that he "used the news conference to confirm his plans, disclosed Tuesday in an interview with The Washington Post, to propose an increase in the permanent size of both the Army and the Marines. He called the global campaign against terrorism 'the calling of our generation,' and he said the military needed to be beefed up to fight it.

On that note, the Wall Street Journal published a very telling article about the how the State Department percieves the region, and what it plans to accomplish in the foreseeable future.

The newspaper writes that Condi Rice is about to embark on “a new diplomatic push in the Middle East to win increased support in Iraq, Lebanon and the Palestinian territories from what she calls ‘mainstream states’ such as Jordan, Egypt and Saudi Arabia.” She “touted what she described as ‘a new opportunity’ to get moderate forces in the region 'to support the development of stable new governments in Iraq and Lebanon...and to make progress toward the emergence of a Palestinian state that is founded on the same principles.’”

As the White House continues to weigh changes to its Iraq strategy, Rice, writes the Journal, “argues that a new alignment is shaping up in the Middle East that offers fresh promise for a new US diplomatic effort.” According to her, the US is “calling upon Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt and key Gulf states to help calm the sectarian passions in Iraq, even going so far as to recognize the current Shiite-led government in Baghdad.” They are also are being asked to “ramp up support for the embattled Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and for Lebanese Prime Minister Fouad Siniora to weaken Iranian-aided radical groups” such as Hezbollah and Hamas. In exchange, the Bush administration is “promising its Arab partners to try to reinvigorate the long-moribund peace talks between Israel and the Palestinians.”

For its part, the Washington Times notes that Rice said the US will not even “wait for Palestinians to agree on a unity government or to hold elections in order to push for a renewed peace effort with Israel and will step up its support for President Mahmoud Abbas.” Rice pointed out that “the chief mission of US diplomacy in the Middle East in the next two years will be to strengthen the ‘alignment’ of moderate forces so they can take on extremists who have enjoyed a surge in popularity in recent years.”

Now if we juxtapose this American position (as articulated by both Bush and Rice) with that which Russia articulated two or three days ago, you see two powers that perceive themselves playing fundamentally clashing roles. Neither power mentions the other in their discussions - nor even institutions or entities designed to foster at least a facade of cooperation (like the Middle East Quartet).

This collision makes me worry that Putin will continue to play the role of "spoiler" to American policy in the Middle East until he gets the kind of recognition from the Americans that he wants. He uses oil and natural gas for leverage in Europe, and he'll use weapons (as well as the nuclear issue) as leverage in the Middle East. Yesterday phone call to PM Seniora, in which Putin "expressed concern" about Lebanon falling into the same sort of chaos that the Palestinians in Gaza are experiencing was not a good omen at all - I perceived it to be more of a warning than anything else.

Yalla... let the roller coaster ride begin. Truth is: whether you believe that Hizballah or March 14 is the "righteous" party, righteousness is irrelevant. In fact, I'll take it one step further and say: Lebanon no longer matters now. The big boys apparently have only just started to get their hands dirty.

21 comments:

R said...

"I'll take it one step further and say: Lebanon no longer matters now. The big boys apparently have only just started to get their hands dirty."

It was bound to happen, we are too fragmented and lack the loyalty to the state that would have protected a small country from foreign interference.

But then again, after 30 years of Syrian domination there wasn't really much chance for state building...

I guess decades (if not centuries) of irresponsible politics and lack of vision as well as refusal to de-sectarianise the country will come to bite Lebanon in the ass (real hard) every now and then.

T. said...

Lebanon never really did matter. We think too much of ourselves when we think it is actually about us.

On another note, I love the critics of the American "realists" (i.e. Gates and others) when Condi and others in the current US administration call countries like Egypt, Saudi, and Jordan "moderate". Saudi Arabia has no parliament and political parties are not allowed. I will not tell you how many people I know have been tortured by the absolutist Jordanian royal regime. And the Egyptian Mubarak dynasty speaks for itself. Uhuh. If saying those countries are moderates is not another permutation of the "realist" school, I wonder what is.

Liliane said...

I agree with you Raja especially on the Economic Level, politicians are mostly idiots and I wish smarter people can put their hand on this country, because obviously politics and sectarianism is not working well.

On the regional level, we all know it was never about Lebanon and lebanon is nothing but a pawn in the middle east's chess game, led by US vs ... (just too many)

And most Lebanese people are joining the chanting and celebration of each time the pawn is moved to whichever way

T. said...

3li,

I was referring to the hype these days for distinguishing between the "realist" school (Baker report) and the Utopian (Bush admin) according to their willingness (or lack of) to talk to rogue regimes. The realists prefer stability over democracy whereas Bush admin works for a greater vision of democracy and therefore refuses to talk to "rogue states" at the risk of instability, the logic goes.

Of course there is a difference between the two, but this simplistic realist/utopian distinction papers over the nature of the "moderate" states and, more importantly, makes the so-called "realists" seem like they had nothing to do with the Taliban, Iran-Iraq war, Gulf War etc... Because they just looooorve stability.

PMB Pedan said...

im sure thats

Anonymous said...

fortune-telling

Anonymous said...

А вы гадаете на Рождество? вот как надо - рождественские гадания

Unknown said...

Women make up half of the population, more than any other political group; it is no doubt that if we start moving, we will cause a stir! Supporting each others businesses will directly affect the development in the Arab region and their economical standings.

Raghuram Astrologer said...

Great post!I am actually getting ready to across this information,i am very happy to this commands.Also great blog here with all of the valuable information you have.Well done,its a great knowledge.
Visit for: Fortune Teller Services in Canada | Indian Astrologer in Vaughan | Psychic Reader in Toronto

Astrologer Manoj - Best / Top Indian Astrologer In Sydney, Australia. Call Us:- 0406677637 said...

Wonderful Blog!!That is helpful for more peoples .Now we can solve our all the problems like related to study, money, love, business or any problem immediately.
Black Magic Removal Expert in Sydney | Divorce Cases Consultancy in Sydney | Famous Indian Astrologer in Adilite

Mahendhar Asrologer said...

Pretty good post. I just stumbled upon your blog and wanted to say that I have really enjoyed reading your blog posts
Fortune Teller Services in Canada | Astrologer in Toronto | Kala Jadu Services in Toronto

Manisha Pandey said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Mahendra Joshi said...

No.1 Astrologer +91-9898765059 Best Jyotish Ahmedabad Astrologer Mahendra Joshi


URL:


http://astrologyindia.in

Website :- www.astrologyindia.in
No.1 Astrologer - Mahendra Jyotish - Ahmedabad, Astrologer, Jyotish in Ahmedabad, Astrologer in Ahmedabad, Mahendra Jyotish in Ahmedabad, Best
Ahmedabad Jyotish, Famous Jyotish in Ahmedabad, Best Ahmedabad Astrologer, Famous Astrologer in Ahmedabad, Top Astrologer in Ahmedabad, Top Jyotish in Ahmedabad,
Good Astrologer in Ahmedabad, Astrologer in Vadodara Rajkot Surat Gujarat India, Astrologer Mahendra Pandi, Jyotish Mahendra Joshi, Love Marriage Astrology, Marriage
Astrology, Financial Astrology, Astrologer in India, Spell Specialist & Spell Caster, Corporate Astrology, Love Astrology, Love Specialist Astrologer, Vashikaran
Specialist India, Love Vashikaran Mantra, Black Magic Removal Specialist, Love Vashikaran for Him/Her, Vashikaran Guru, Love Marriage Vashikaran, Powerful Vashikaran
Specialist, Love Vashikaran Specialist, Vashikaran Removal Specialist, Extramarital Affairs, Love Problems Solution, Divorce Problem Solution, Disturbed Marriage Life,
Teenage Love Problems, Intercaste Marriage Problems, Understanding Problem in Couple, Love Horoscopes Specialist, Astrologer Coach, Lost Love Spells, Reviews
Mahendra Joshi, Vastu specialist, Divorce Problem Solution, Health Problems, Kundli Making/Matching, Ex Back Fast, Online Vashikaran Specialist, Meditation Guru,
Family Problems, Office Problems, Visa Problems, Mangal Dosha Remedies, Spiritual Healer Healing, Vastu Services, Career/Job Problem, Services to NRI, Lucky
Lottery Number, Best Astrologer, Match Making, Court Case Problem, Nadi Astrologer, Business Problem, Kaal Sarp Yog Remedy, Childless Problem, Love Back Mantra,
Hypnotism Specialist

Bale said...

I have been buying Madden Overdrive Coins within the MMOAH website and yes it feels good. There are a lot of sellers on Google's website who're also very cheap, nonetheless they don't guarantee security. I visited the MMOAH website 3 times on Madden 19 Coins . It has been very safe, plus the customer service is incredibly enthusiastic and responsible.

Best Astrologer in Sydney - Astrologer Shiva Rama Krishna said...

Very Nice Article..
Famous astrologer in Sydney
Negative Energy Removal in Sydney

Unknown said...

Very good publication. I came across your blog and I wanted to tell you that I really enjoyed reading your blog posts ...
Astrologer in Sydney
Best Indian Astrologer in Sydney
Black Magic Removal In Sydney
Negative Energy Removal In Sydney
Best Love Spells In Sydney
Best Voodoo Spells In Sydney

URGENT LOAN OFFER WHATSAPP +918929509036 said...

Do not use all of these Private Money Lender here.They are located in Nigeria, Ghana Turkey, France and Israel.My name is Mrs.Emily Michael, I am from Canada. Have you been looking for a loan?Do you need an urgent personal or business loan?contact Fast Legitimate Loan Approval he help me with a loan of $95,000 some days ago after been scammed of $12,000 from a woman claiming to be a loan lender from Nigeria but i thank God today that i got my loan worth $95,000.Feel free to contact the company for a genuine financial contact Email:(creditloan11@gmail.com)

Standard Online Finance said...

GOOD DAY AND WELCOME TO STANDARD ONLINE FINANCE LTD
Do you need 100% Finance? I can fix your financial needs with a lower back problem of 3% interest rate. Whatever your circumstances, self employed, retired, have a poor credit rating, we could help. flexible repayment, Contact us through our E-mail at: standardonlineinvestment@gmail.com

Apply now for all types of loans and get money urgently!
* The interest rate is 3%
* Choose between 1 and 35 years of repayment.
* Choose between monthly and annual repayment plan.
* Terms and conditions of the flexibility of loans.

Regards,
Mr. Abdul Muqse

Unknown said...

Hariom Sharma is World Famous Astrologer. They have good knowlge about of horoscopes So If You Have Any Problem You Can Consultant Best Astrologer Hariom Sharma.
Vashikaran Specialist Astrologer
Love Problem Soution
Vashikaran specialist in Bangalore
Love Marriage Specialist
Black Magic Specialist
Astrologer in Mumbai
Vashikaran Specialist In Australia
Vashikaran Specialist In Canada
Astrologer in New Zealand
Vashikaran Specialist in Uk
Astrologer In Toronto

astrologer-Uday said...

Nice information posted by you. Thank you for sharing
Best astrologer in Sydney
Black Magic Removal in Sydney
Get ex love back in Sydney
Top astrologer in Sydney

Astrologer Vivek said...

Are you suffering from problems in your life? Do you think that your life is not running easily and is not going in the direction it should? If yes then it is the right time to contact the best astrologer Pandit Vivek ji who offers well known astrological solutions for all kinds of issues irrespective of the level of complication. Contact the expert Top Indian astrologer in Melbourne now and say bye to all issues related to astrology and say welcome to a new life.

Top Indian Astrologer in Melbourne