Sunday, December 10, 2006

Today's speeches

Amal Representative speech - I didn't watch it. Irrelevant.

Hizballah Representative - split according to the following proportions:

50% of his speech was: you are the larger, more righteous, more courageous crowd.
10% of his speech was: this is not a sectarian movement
5% of his speech was: this government has failed and is not representative
35% of his speech was: we want Lebanon back under the Iranian/Syrian yoke - of course, he said so indirectly. He bashed American and Israel.

my comment: yepeee!

Aoun:

50% of his speech was: this government and political elite has failed
50% of his speech was: I will do a better job.

my comment: all right!

So from what I'm witnessing, I can surmise that Hizballah has the following plan: It seeks to take the country back to a state of active war with Israel - because that's all that party can demand - that's all it can actually do. And then, instead of having Hariri and Co. govern the internal affairs of the Lebanon, Hizballah will delegate that task (which, of course, is beneath them) to Aoun and Co.

Oh... I am sooooo looking forward to this new era in Lebanon's History. FABULOUS!

I am even tempted to encourage this new governing formula for Lebanon - a formula where Hizballah is effectively sovereign and Aoun, governor. Where one asks his crowd to scream death to America, and the other quotes the American constitution. Where one says we want a country that is not beholden to international resolutions, and the other says that he supports all international resolutions.

akh, akh, akh... la wayn? la wayn rayha ya libnen?

46 comments:

Faysal said...

I love the part about death to America and the American constitution!

Wow, what a country.

3li- said...

Raja-

If you just want to vent, then go ahead..

But if you are trying to have a serious conversation, or are at least trying to educate, then try to be a little more balanced and realistic, and stop spewing puerile, dismissive, and often contradictory invective.

Your recent mis-characterizations of the events in Lebanon for the last couple of days, with your typical Amen-chanting choir, is not worth replying to. Your curt trivialization of the opposition, effectively half of the country in absence of any accurate poll, while assigning nothing but simple-minded evil intention (a-la-Bush) to their demands, and all the while stripping them of any genuine grievances, effectively puts you out of any serious intellectual effort to reconcile Lebanon’s competing realities and visions for the future.

Lebanon needs people who acknowledge the other, however unpalatable their view is. Maybe you should take a cue from the “one-dimensional” political you’ve been trashing the last few days, who in his speech said that even if the opposition won the majority in a new round of elections, that his party will push to give the then minority 1/3 of the seats because that is the only fair and just thing to do due to Lebanon’s ethnic make-up. A check-and-balances formula that will please many of the framers of the US Constitution to be sure, but hardly got a mention in your ill-conceived diatribes of late.

Lebanon is in despair right now, and more than ever needs people with a realistic, encompassing vision, and a great spirit of compromise. Your last few posts show you possess neither.

Omega80 said...

Ya Raja, no need to dispair. It seems that a deal is almost near.

The Lebanese Army said that the demonstration today was "unprecedented in Lebanese history." The majority of the Lebanese people have spoken. They have said no to a corrupt and useless government that is only good at coming up with excuses. No to foriegn influence in Lebanon, no matter where that may come from, and no to power in Lebanon being in the hands of one group, while all the rest are cancelled out.

Lebanon is going to be a better place because of what happened over the last 10 days. It was enjoyable watching you portray this as a Shia/Hezbollah coup, it was also enjoyable watching you being proved wrong.

Long Live Lebanon and the Lebanese

Anonymous said...

If we support Hezbollah's mission to wipe out Israel than we must support their take over of the government in Lebanon. Sure, you could lose some freedom and who knows what else, but isn't it worth having an enemy of Israel running your lives. Isn't it worth subjecating yourselves to Hezbollah's theocracy if it will mean further attacks on Israeli soldiers and confronting the Zionist regime. Lets not be hypocritical and support these guys when they kill and kidnap our enemies, but then get cold feet when they threaten our freedoms. Trust me, life under these type of regimes isn't so bad. You'll just got to watch your back a little and not do anything that may be considered too non-extremist. Hurray Hezbollah!

FGA said...

Raja, actually Hizballah will not give Aon any responsibilies whatsoever...remember these guys already know that Micho cant be trusted with babysitting a cat, let alone running the affairs of a country.

Eventually, Micho and his orange-looking lackies will realize that they have been used and abused for nada. Sad, but at least we can count on many more years of fiesty Aon bitching.

-FGA

Omega80 said...

It is very sad to read this blog and the comments that many readers right.

However, it gives great insight into the way the current ruling junta thinks. See, according to them, and many people here, "March 14" represents everyone in Lebanon, while all other political figures represent nothing. Also, the voices of their supporters count, however, the voices of all other Lebanese don't.

Which is why we have people like FGA, who calls FPMers "Orange Lackeys". So FGA, I guess you have yourself at least half a million of these "Orange Lackeys" running around Lebanon. SO what are you going to do with them, throw them into the sea?

Too bad that even after our 15 year civil war, there are still many in Lebanon who feel that they can monopolize power and cancel everybody else out. The system in Lebanon does not allow for this, which is why we are seeing these events unfold in front of us.

Just realize that the majority of the Lebanese are against this junta and their Made in Anjar electoral law that brought them to power. Would they dare enact a fair electoral law? I doubt it, becuase it would mean the end of many of their political careers. However, thankfully, this decision is not up to them to make alone, and the Lebanese citizenry has taken it upon themselves to set the country right, from the bottom up.

If they won't enact a fair electoral law, we will force them to. If they continue to insist on taking our country into the abyss, we will force them to stop.

Raja said...

Omega,

if you think aoun is going to come up and clean up lebanon's political establishment, wonderful. I guess we all have our delusions.

let me say something to you (and al ghadab) Hizballah has repeatedly declared what it seeks to achieve through these demonstrations: keep Lebanon out of the Western orbit - which ultimately implies that it be given the freedom to return to its activities in the south, and the region in general. I am not making this up. They say it. That is all they want.

Some of my best friends are Shi'a from the south. My closest friend in high school was and remains a Shi'a from the south. I seriously doubt that keeping that part of Lebanon as an open front, and returning Lebanon to the Iranian Syrian axis would benefit anybody - especially the Lebanon's Shi'a population.

As for Aoun... well, his actions today remind me of the actions of Kamal Jumblatt - another egomaniac who thought he was too good for the establishment. 30 years ago, Kamal "too good for Lebanon's establishment" Jumblatt used an armed movement ostensibly dedicated to "ending Israeli occuption" to overthrow what he saw as an oppressive Maronite political order. Ultimately, the palestinians overthrew him, and used him to acheive their ends.

Today, Aoun comes in... and does the same. True, Hizballah is not the PLO. You would tell me that the Shi'a are not Palestinians, they are Lebanese. In response, I tell you yes! they are Lebanese! But let us not forget that the overwhelming support for the PLO came from LEBANESE sunnis.

So ya habibi, Omega, don't gloat too much in this "victory." I hate the corrupt political establishment as much as you do. But unlike you, I don't fool myself into believing that somehow one man will be able to overthrow a political establishment that, more than anything else, reflects Lebanese society and all of its ills.

Let me conclude by saying the following: your support for Aoun's ambitions is similar to liberals like myself who initially supported the American overthrow of Saddam because of their declared ambition of installing an Iraqi democracy. Look at iraq today. One man is not the solution. One man will never be the solution.

Anonymous said...

Hey Raja...
Now you're starting to sound desperate in your blog... DON'T..
While March 8th+FPM are marginilazing the rest of the Lebanese population, they are fueling the latters as they did pre-March 14.. And then the people took to the streets and the March 8th forces seriously put a sock in it and allied to the March 14 forces during the elections... The March 14 supporters are boiling and I swear they are waiting for a chance to take to the streets (as what happened in Tripoli), and unfortunately that's the only language the Lebanese understand.. My penis is bigger than your penis, no my penis is bigger than your penis... To me I think both forces have around the same portion of the population backing give or take a couple of thousands, which is why compromise and true "sharaké" are the only way to go... Unfortunately, everytime you answer one of Hezbollah's request a new one comes up, as if it is their intention to just put this whole country on hold.. And anyway, I actually would hope that Hezbollah and Aoun take over the country because I would really like to see what they would do with it? Corruption? Berri is the most corrupt person on the face of the earth, and is their biggest ally... Sharakeh? They would wipe out any opposition Franjieh and August 7 style... And anyway, I think they both Hezbollah and Aoun, are untrustful of each other...

The most important thing is never to lose hope, but I do understand that it's just sickening to keep waiting for something to happen...

FGA said...

Omega, I owe you an apology. I actually gave Oranginas more credit than I should have. Initially, I thought that they were just using the March 8th "movement" for political gain. I guess I was wrong. Maybe Aon, the SSNP, Omar Karami, and wi'am wahab are true partners in Lebanon's future.
Sorry I ever gave you the benefit of the doubt -- you dont deserve it!

FGA

Suha said...

Raja et al.

Though stated angrily, al-Ghadab's main point remains important and unanswered: how can you dismiss a mass movement such as the one that has been taking place over the past 10 days? Would you like to be dismissed the same way? You probably comfort yourselves saying they are sheep or whatever. How would you like it if the same was said about you? You can be as critical as you want of their demands, but you have to engage them seriously. How can you even dream of building a democratic country if you can so easily ignore the demands and aspirations of half of its population. Seriously, why bother? Let's just go for division.

You know, I have often gone back to newspapers and magazines of pre-1975 and the early years of the war to find out what the well-educated and intellectuals of Lebanon were busying themselves with at the time. And the answer is simple. Same as today: most were busy taking sides.

Raja said...

Suha,

you ask us what are their demands. I'll ask you the same question. Have you listened to Hizballah's speeches? All of them, without exception, demand to return the country to a state of open conflict with Israel. All of them!

Is this really what the Shi'a want? More bloodshed and destruction? Or do most of those who went down there to protest go there to demand a better say, and better economic opportunities - just like those who went down to Pierre Gemeyell's protest went to protest against political violence and a semblance of normality?

Please, you guys... why aren't you a little self critical? Why is it that you assume that Hizballah's are the demands of "it's" people? Why can't you see that "Hizballah's people" may have all-together different demands, but nevertheless hope that its success will automatically translate into their success - because Hizballah is their patron?

However committed to a cause people are, I doubt they "seek death more than their enemies seek life," as Nasrallah is so fond of saying!

3li- said...

Raja-

Economic and educational opportunities are surely lacking in Lebanon. These alone would have been enough reason to bring down every gov’t we’ve had pre or post civil war.

But the nature of today’s protests are political in nature, and owe themselves to the wider regional conflicts Lebanon finds itself embroiled in. The opposition is telling this gov’t that they want a say in where this country is going, and how it handles itself regionally and internationally. Certainly half the population of Lebanon deserves a say in the shaping their own national identity and the making of their future, no? Let’s talk about the political framework first. The economy is a subset of the political system. It is a moot point to talk wages and economic opportunities when the political system is unequal and in tatters.

Now I challenge you to bring me one quote from HA, after the July war, where someone advocated open war with Israel. Yes they speak of Israel as the enemy, they we should be on high alert and be ready, etc…, but what are you referring to when you say HA wants open-ended war with Israel?

If anything, Nasrallah was quite revealing at the end of the war, and he was greatly chastised for this, when he admitted that he would have never allowed the initial operation to take place had he believed there was a 1% chance that Israel would have launched an all-out war against Lebanon. If that is not sobering enough for you to understand that HA will never allow for another round of conflict, especially when it is their constituency that paid the heaviest price for this war, then there is nothing I can say to convince you otherwise. In fact, not only is this a grave mis-understanding of the discipline and political rationality of HA on your part, but rather worse, an offensive and even racist portrayal of the Shia in general that, unlike you I presume, they are either lackeys, suffer from a martyr’s complex, or are so poor and ignorant they have nothing of value to live for.

I stress again, that we, all Lebanese of all sects, need to have a sobering self-assessment of who we are, where we have been, what kind of a country we want and where we want to take it. I may not agree with everything you say, or how you define things, but I have to respect your opinion as representing your fears and dreams, and find a way where we can both compromise to get to where we can both live in security and mutual trust and respect. It is a tall order considering all we’ve been through, but the sun is brightest after the darkest night. Throwing dismissive arguments will not get rid of the other, and if you decide to focus only on the worst of each other, then there is enough fodder for us to tear each other apart into oblivion.

vrai14mars said...

It so happens I've already answered a few of these questions in the comments of a previous post:

Nasrallah presents us at best with fraudulent mediocrity hovering around an opportunistic "resistant" stance against Israel that left Lebanon against his will in May 2000, thus officially fulfilling Resolution 425 which he and friends used to claim was the only thing they wanted. On the subject of distributing certificates of patriotism and finger-pointing traitors, tell me how you'd qualify the following:

I know a guy, Samer T., who told me after the July war that he'd evacuated his parents to Syria on July 10 on information that all hell was about to break loose. Now this guy is extremely polished, brilliant even, well introduced in all the region's major corporations and to some political parties, and also a devout Moslem.

He refused to tell me how he knew.

But there is only one possibility: It is that someone from Hizbullah told him.

Perhaps someone dissenting with the leadership because it didn't believe in consequences of their planned action as catastrophic as the Shalit war under way in Gaza, perhaps someone close to the leadership who knew, with the leadership, that disaster would be forthcoming.

In the first case, Nasrallah comes out as a Stalinian character deciding to wage war against all the hard evidence that it would be disaster (much like Stalin refusing to believe his intelligence before Germany's imminent attack in June 1941) and therefore pretty much irresponsible; in the second case, the one I tend to favor, he knew the consequences and he did it anyway only for internal political reasons. In this case, he comes out not only as his usual reckless hostage-taking cynical self but also as an unqualified traitor.

Frankly, Siniora's stock shot up in my books when Nasrallah insinuated that he'd given orders to the army to intercept weapons shipments to Hizbullah. That was plain and simple the right thing to do: Nasrallah's "resistance" is Lebanon's only to the extent that it is shoven down our throats (witness the unfortunate initial statement of the Council of Ministers "Bayan Wizari").

Anonymous said...

al-ghadabulsaati3,

-Economic and educational opportunities are lacking in Lebanon, hence Hizbulla took matters into its hands and started its own schools and offered its own jobs (funded by the philanthropy of who?) just like any regular party in the world. I am sure the canadian liberals and the american democrats as well as the german spd all have schools that teach doctrine as well as math and languages, funded by other countries as well...

-It is a moot point to talk wages and economic opportunities when the political system is unequal and in tatters. True, however you opened your comment with a remark on economic opportunities. Moreover, the injustice in the Lebanese political system is a function of sectarianism, and treats the Sunnis and Shias practically equally while giving the Christians more. However, when you look at the sectarian nature of Hizbulla, somehow, this appears to be a good safeguard to other sects... Personally, I still disagree with the the sectarian system no matter what, however I cannot blame non-Shias for having reservations about an ideologically Shia party, just as I would not blame the Shias for being worried about an ideologically Sunni party...

-If anything, Nasrallah was quite revealing at the end of the war, and he was greatly chastised for this, when he admitted that he would have never allowed the initial operation to take place had he believed there was a 1% chance that Israel would have launched an all-out war against Lebanon... Right, however, Hizbulla's spin media has twisted this statement back and forth in and out of context so much, that Nasralla himself doesnt know what he meant anymore. More importantly, who gave Nasralla, or Hizbulla, the right to make such decisions that impacted their constituents the most, but all Lebanese nontheless.

-Alghadabulsaati3, there is nothing I would like more than for all of us to sit together and define the identity of Lebanon once and for all. We have seen the heavy price we have paid so many times because we have failed to address that particular issue. On the other hand, the Lebanese people have delegated this responsibility to their respective sectarian parties, Hizbulla and others, who have markedly different viewpoints at opposite extremes, and who have failed at the dialogue tables repeatedly. The Lebanese people, including Hizbulla's constituents, stuck to their guns, despite this failure, and thus some blame has to go to them (the people) for failing to produce and support alternative political elite...

-Finally, at the end of this long comment, I would hope that you might change your nickname from the frightening one you currently have to something more appealing and perhaps more friendly. Its just a suggestion but your nickname is more fitting for psychological warfare than consructive debate...

Doha said...

I don't see anywhere where Raja make mis-statements about the Shia. He talks about HA and that's differnt from the Shia.

At any rate, Ghadab, it is well-known that March 14 warned Nasrallah during the first round of hiwar that diplomatic sources were signalling that any violation of the blue line will lead Israel to respond harshly. But Nasrallah still decided to launch the soldier kidnapping.

I'm not saying that it's not unfair that Israel gets to cross the blue line regularly by violating our air space, while we have to face dire consequences if we cross the blue line. But it's just that Nasrallah knew beforehand the consequences of such actions.

One importan thing, I remember right after the Syrian withdrawal, shows on TV popped out where there was real debate going on between all Lebanese youth on a variety of issues, such as whether the Taif is still viable, what kind of electoral laws we should have, how can we eliminate political sectarianism, etc...Even if you check our blog, we were having similar discussion as well.

I never shied away from debate and am not afraid of disagreements, provided that there is a civilized dialogue going on. But when we get to threats and intimidation, then there is no room for debate.

Moreover, I just see that all the political leadership in the country, in the opposition and not, are not up to par with our expectations (us, being the Lebanese). And that's why they've taken us back to their trenches.

Anyways, I'm glad you mentioned that you respect others' opinions; I did note a change of tone. I still didn't forget when you hurled insults on me a couple of months back. That was painful and I think we shouldn't be insulting each other; we should be dialoguing.

3li- said...

r-

This is me, formerly known as al-ghadab, with a new nickname, but the same person still.

The old name emerged in summer as an apt description of my feelings about the July war. It did not help either that the other more obvious name choices available were already taken. I chose it in emotional haste. Beyond appearances however, I hope we can listen to what we say rather than how we look or sound like..

To address one point you raised, the Shia had no choice but to solicit the help of someone outside of Lebanon to help mount a resistance against the Israelis and rebuild the South. Iran was the natural choice. The Lebanese gov’t had been non-existent in their lives. The historical development of the Shia’s ideology and power is understandable.

But I agree with you that this does not lend itself to a sovereign state. I believe HA erred in summer in mounting the operation, and its weapons and expertise have to eventually find a natural place with a representative Lebanese gov’t. In return, this gov’t has to gain the trust of the Shia and make them feel like citizens with full rights, re-build the South and promote economic and educational development which HA had taken responsibility for all these years.

Doha-

I did insult you back then. There was no excuse. I came back and offered a heartfelt apology. Emotions were running high. Still, no excuses. I hope you will one day forgive and forget.

I mentioned the Shia purposefully because I meant to include both the leadership and the people as Raja’s object of denigration. The Shia are not dumb sheep being led to the slaughter. They may not agree with everything HA does, but they consciously support them. I think you got a sense of that during the war. When you accuse HA of being nothing but a warmongering ideology with suicidal notions, you are also taking a jab at the people who support them and drawing unsavory conclusions about them. I do not for once believe that the March 14 people are an unthinking monolithic lot who follow the dictates of their leaders. Our and your choices, historically, politically and regionally, are limited. We are doing the best we can with what we have. Let’s respect each other enough to listen to one another. Put yourself in the other’s shoes, and the picture will look very differently to you..

Anyhow, the weaker and more divided we are, the more external powers will find it easier to meddle in our affaires. We have to fix our own house first. I have some disagreements with march 14 forces, and specifically with their leaders, but I do not dismiss outright their demands, or belittle their fears. Let us be a little more nuanced in our thinking and more critical in our analyses.

Anonymous said...

3li-

I had a long reply to you all typed up and good to go, when I signed in with my old blogger account and lost the whole damn thing, so this short one will have to suffice...

- I really appreciate the fact that you took my suggestion regarding the nickname... this is much friendlier...

- The gyst of my lost comment was that foreign support for Lebanese sects has previously had and will continue to have terrible consequences on Lebanon and on the prospects of it ever having an indentity we can all agree on.

- We should have seen the Syrian withdrawal from Lebanon as an opportunity for us to build a free, sovereign, democratic and prosperous Lebanon. I personally believe that HA had a big role in all of us missing that chance by antagonizing so many Lebanese via siding with the perceived killers of many of Lebanon's leaders.

- I hope that ship has not sailed and that there is hope for Lebanon('s indentity) yet. I just don't see it in sectarian politics, and I definitely don't see it in ideological politics or theological politics, let alone a combination...

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