Yesterday, fellow blogger abu kais and i sat down for a discussion. he said something profound: either hizballah goes or lebanon goes - simple. I agree. In fact, I feel Lebanon is on the brink of "going."
Gradually, with the passing of time, it dawns on me that (as i alluded to in my previous blog entry, a message to hizballah) the very reason behind Hizballah's success on the battlefield and in the so-called "Arab street" will be its downfall in Lebanon - or, alternatively, Lebanon's downfall. Hizballah's black and white vision of the world: evil-good, ally-enemy, devil-god, etc... is incompatible with a fluid, complex and contradictory political field and process.
Today, the organization's main focus has shifted from south of Lebanon's border to Beirut, Lebanon's capital. Interestingly however, the party continues to utilize the same language, or more accurately, vocabulary, in referring to the Lebanese government and other political players.
In other words, the primary focus (or, maybe, subject) of the organization has changed, but the organization itself appears intransigently set against change. Consequently, Hizballah portrays its political opponents within Lebanon, and deals with them (politically) in a similar manner to its dealings with Israel. Nuance, subtlety, sensitivity, and all other forms of accommodation seem non-existent in that party's political tool-kit. In the gray zone of the Lebanese political playing field Hizballah appears as fish out of water.
The main problem with this situation lies in its implication for Lebanon and Lebanese in general. Farid el Khazen (AUB professor and current MP) suggests that the Lebanese civil war of 1975 began because existing political processes and institutions were not able to absorb all the pressures inherent in, among other things, the PLO's presence in Lebanon.
Today, I see a parliament that's defunct, a presidency that, for all intents and purposes, is also defunct, and a government that's struggling to stay afloat. Needles to say, this situation does not bode well for the future of the country. On this note, I'll add that it doesn't surprise me that among the MPs rumored to have left MP Aoun's bloc is Farid el Khazen.
In the mean time, everybody who can is leaving the country.
In light of these developments, one thought that comes to mind is how difficult the project of co-opting Hizballah into becoming a Lebanese political party is turning out to be. I am convinced that if this process is to continue, the party itself will have to undergo a considerable overhaul - starting with its leadership. Hassan Nasrallah has obsessed about Israel since the 1980s! It is humanly impossible for him to, all of a sudden, focus his thinking and efforts exclusively on, say, improving his flock's socio-economic conditions.
Tensions and conflicts will continue in Lebanon until something dramatic within Hizballah occurs. Hizballah's mission to Hizballah-ize the state will fail. I hope that the consequence of that failure will no be the destruction of the state itself.