Wednesday, August 10, 2005

al Qaeda's next Objective and the Implications on the Region

al Qaeda's two main sources of revenue appear to be contributions from oil-rich gulf states and opium grown in Afghanistan. It is so ironic how Western civilization's dependencies actually sustain the al Qaeda network and its terrorist activities!

There is an old saying that says where there is smoke, you'll find fire. In Lebanon, the talk of some salons immediately after the September 11 attacks, was that Osama Bin Laden was actually a CIA agent. Of course, that is a ridiculous claim, but considering that Osama and his cronies fund their destruction with oil and opium revenues, which are made by selling those two commodities to mainly Western markets, such a ridiculous claim is not too far from the truth!

al Qaeda's next rational step is to elevate itself from getting the scraps that are thrown from the dinner table to actually controlling the kitchen. Its next strategic objective appears to be gaining control over the oil fields and use the Western addiction to that commodity as a means of subsidizing its caliphate.

In my last post on the subject of al Qaeda's war against the West, I motioned that the conflict was basically a do-or-die conflict for both sides. This war is being fought over the future of the Middle East, nothing less. Iraq is now the central battlefield. It has the second largest oil reserves in the world, and is currently experiencing an extremely volatile period as a result of the political vacuum created by Sadam's demise.

I wonder though, if the al Qaeda goons are thinking about the Shi'a and the Kurds. All the United States and neighboring Arab states have to do to win in Iraq is contain the conflict within that territory. Iraq's Arab Sunnis are a minority, and will most definitely lose a civil war against the Shi'a and Kurdish "minorities."

Here is America's Achilles heel with regards to its dealings with regimes like Syria, Jordan and Saudi Arabia. Unless these regimes are able to survive along with their actual states, the civil war in Iraq might turn into a regional war: a reality that al Qaeda desperately seeks.

So long as that threat exists, I would not expect the United States to put too much pressure of any of the regimes for reform. Bashar will stay... So will all the others. Lebanon is now the token democracy in the region. Every one is happy


Solomon2 said...

You mean to say that the U.S. might remove the current Syrian & Iranian regimes, and thus lose the terror war in Iraq? Because the Iraqi Shi'a would and Kurds would react by slaughtering Iraqi Sunnis? And that would lead to a regional religious war?

I do not see this; poison is being fed into Iraq, assisted by surrounding governments. Removing the Iranian regime would at least cut off the supply of advanced anti-armor land mines to the terrorists in Iraq.

Solomon2 said...

Don't miss Michael Yon's "assault reporting" from Iraq:

As we follow him into the neighborhood, he turns around mid-stride to see our Stryker with weapons pointing at him, and he caves to the ground. The ramp drops and we all run out. The man is just a cowering heap on the sidewalk. Chris Espindola flex-cuffs him. Meanwhile, I’m wondering what this is really all about, and waiting for the ambush to start. SSG Contrares is scanning rooftops, ready for action.

Vox Populi - Agent Provocateur said...

Iraq's Arab Sunnis are a minority, and will most definitely lose a civil war against the Shi'a and Kurdish "minorities."

Only if we don't have any international/regional interference which is unlikely. As we Lebanese know, a war where the main protagonists are fueled from the outside could drag for years.

raf* said...

"al Qaeda's two main sources of revenue appear to be contributions from oil-rich gulf states and opium grown in Afghanistan."

do you have a source on that?

at this point - al-qa'ida as ONE group doesn't seem to exist. there are various groups, cells, etc. that may or may not be in contact with each other and that may or may not identify themselves as being "part of" or at least operating "under the ideological umbrella" of al-qa'ida. and they have all sorts of financing.

in the end - it's not overly expensive to organize a bomb attack in europe, insurgent groups in iraq, or hide out in afghanistan/pakistan.

there really is no need to have recourse to oil-$$$ from the gulf or drug-$$$ from afghanistan.


mic said...

just a point - the taliban was supported by america a few decades ago as a result of the cold war. just look at their policies of the time, and for a more hollywoodish statement, just look at Rambo (he helped the taliban in one of his movies). It might be outrageous that Bin Laden was an actual CIA agent, but he might have had support at one level or another.

Anonymous said...

Shiites are a majority in the eastern province of Saudi Arabia,where almost all Saudi oil is pumped. These people can have their independence anytime Bush likes. And,that would stop the death cult in its tracks....

Dr Victorino de la Vega said...

Before becoming the Arabian kingdom’s ambassador to the UK, Prince Turki al-Faisal was the head of his country’s ruthless intelligence services for more than two decades.
He personally supervised the killing of hundreds of dissidents be they “Islamic” or democrats; under his guidance thousands of journalists, lawyers, trade union leaders and human rights activists were systematically tortured in Riyadh’s infamous high security prison

In a farewell interview with The Times earlier this week, Prince Turki al-Faisal said that he had been “going around in circles during his 2½-year posting in a failed attempt to make Britain understand the danger posed by Saudi and Arab dissidents in London”

This is where we've come to after 4 years of “war against terror”: Saudi thugs and Israeli “security experts” are giving enlightened advice to Herr Big Bliar- not that he needs it, Tony’s technocratic/positivist “neolabour” ideology is largely aligned with Tel Aviv and Ryadh’s repressive mores…

Blair simply needed a pretext to commence his totalitarian crackdown on civil liberties: from that perspective the tragic events of 7 July 2005 were god sent- on September 12, 2001 his friend Paul Wolfowitz had said that “911 awakened an insouciant giant”…and that “the rules of the game would change”

Sounds familiar?

Anonymous said...

Let's not forget that the christians were the minority in Lebanon during the civil war and it took how many years for them to "lose"?

The sunnis in Iraq were the elite in their country. They have the best military commanders and much combat experience. They are also well funded and supported from outside regimes and organizations.

The Shia lack military competence right now. Compare Sadr's pathetic attempt to defend Najaf with the showdown in Fallujah.

The Kurds have good military leaders and a standing Army, but then again they would probably be content with holding onto the northern oil fields... The insurgency in Iraq could continue for years.