War Over the Core of the Middle East

I remember when the United States invaded Iraq, the one sound-bite that kept recurring over and over again was that "America was in the process of implementing a new Sykes Picot Agreement." It seemed like everyone from the region I talked to subscribed to that line of thought without hesitation. For the longest of time, even I believed that there were at least some aspects of the claim that were true. If the Americans were not going to redraw borders, they were definitely creating a new regional balance of power, and appeared to threaten the status quo in a manner that was simply unprecedented.

The recent suicide bombing attacks in London, Turkey and Egypt however, have instigated a “revelation” in my thinking. The revelation scares me though. It scares me because it points to certain new realities that make what seemed unfathomable yesterday, extremely viable today.

In short, the bombings revealed to me that the war between al Qaeda and the West is not only about oil, nor is it only about “infidel” troops on “holy” land. Rather, the Americans, British and the French are fighting tooth and nail to protect nothing less than the Sykes-Picot Agreement itself (the agreement that signifies the birth of the Middle East as we know it today).

Why the Islamic Umma May Win where the Arab Umma Failed

It is no big secret; the legitimacy of most “Arab” states is, in the best of circumstances, precarious. Throughout its modern history there has never been a shortage of “pan-something” ideologies & identities in the region! Yet, with the brief exception of Nasser’s Pan Arabism (prior to Nasser’s humiliation in 1967), none of these ideologies ever really posed an existential threat to any of the Arab states. Quite to the contrary, most of the ideologies were adopted by regimes to increase their own legitimacy and consequently reinforce the status quo.

Considering the absolutely miserable performance of secular “pan-something” ideologies, why should we be concerned about the threat that Islamic Fundamentalism poses on the Sykes Picot Agreement? Is it not simply another manifestation of previous failed initiatives?

The main reasons I worry are as follows:

1. the Pan Arab ideologies were state-sponsored and did not have a non-state champion with the popularity and destructive power of al Qaeda

2. there was never a united counter-elite that spanned the entire world similar to al-Qaeda – an organization that utilizes the internet and other technologies that were not available in the mid-twentieth century to spread its message and coordinate “military” activities on a global scale

3. al Qaeda is using Islam as a much more effective political tool than Pan Arabism could ever be used. Islam is an established religion; Pan Arabism was a hollow “quasi-ideology.” It can be argued that it has more of an appeal.

4. Arab regimes, such as Egypt’s are inadvertently assisting al Qaeda by conceding ever more ground to religious fanatics in the hope of increasing their legitimacy. Why should Mullahs bother to criticize the regime when they are indirectly undermining the legitimacy of the state itself through their political sermons?

5. Finally, and most importantly, al Qaeda is targeting what it perceives to be the Western “pillars” of not only the region’s regimes, but the actual states created by Sykes Picot. Could the Saudi regime survive without the support it receives from the United States? The first Gulf War proved that it could not. Could the Saudi state, (as it is defined by its current borders) exist without US support? The Iraqi precedent, which is taking place as you are reading these words, proves that it will not. The same applies to all of the other states in the region.

Is al Qaeda Winning?

Yes. If you go to any bookstore in the US, the number of books you see with titles that include the phrase, “Muslim world,” or “Islamic this or that” is simply unbelievable. The main unit of analysis for the “Western” intellectual is no longer “Egypt,” or “Syria” or “Malaysia” or “Morocco.” The unit of analysis is not even “Arab.” Today, Western intellectuals speak of the “Islamic” world (as if it were one entity) more than any other time in modern history. A former professor once told me that Samuel Huntington and al Qaeda were best friends because they both saw the world in a similar light. Today, Huntington is one of hundreds if not thousands of Western intellectuals who see the world the way al Qaeda wants them to see it.

Even in military circles, the notion of a “Muslim Army” that fights wars in Chechnya, Kashmir, Israel/Palestine, the Philippines and West Africa is growing. According to this line of thinking, al Qaeda is the equivalent of a “Special Forces” that operates behind enemy lines, and causes as much chaos as possible. Michael Scheuer, the former head of a CIA taskforce that was created for the sole purpose of capturing or killing Bin Laden propagated that paradigm in his best seller, Imperial Hubris. On CNN, a General posted at US Army Intelligence proclaimed that there already exists a “virtual Caliphate” on the World Wide Web.

Today’s war between al Qaeda and “the West” is a war over transforming that “virtual Caliphate” into a real Caliphate. It is a fight to the finish because everything in the Middle East is at stake – not just Israel, not just oil or natural gas, but the entire “Western Project” that is represented in the Levant by the Sykes Picot Agreement (which created the states of Lebanon, Israel, Palestine, Jordan, Syria and Iraq). If al Qaeda is able to increase the frequency and intensity of its suicide bombing operations in Western capitals, then I foresee no way out except either the expulsion of all known Muslim populations, or direct negotiations with al Qaeda accompanied by concessions.

The suicide bomber is al Qaeda’s nuclear option. It terrifies the West because conventional armies, no matter how well equipped or trained, can do nothing about them. If countries like Britain, Germany and the United States are unable to diminish, or at least contain the intensity and frequency of suicide bomb attacks, the Middle East as we’ve known it since we were born may actually cease to exist. What seemed unfathomable yesterday has now become a terrifying prospect.