Tuesday, July 12, 2005

Syria's Message To Divide The Ranks!

Remember when a bomb went off in Broummana? How everyone was speculating that it was a message from Syria to Lahoud that he should not give in to the needs of the Opposition?

Well...how clear was today's message when the President's son-in-law and former Minister Elias Murr became a born-again martyr after a failed assassination attempt. (And my heart goes out to those who cruelly perished in this attack and those who are injured I wish all that they recover soon.)

It's a message that Lahoud should not give in to the government being formed under the auspices of Seniora. Couple that with the trade blockade on the border...it becomes clear that this was made to get us back to where we were before the elections.

Seniora yesterday was saying that the government will be formed in the next 24 hours. And we were speculating on this blog how Lahoud of course will insist that his representative Murr be included in the Ministerial line-up.

This is all gone now. I know. I can see that there is pressure to get back Mikati to power, whom Syria likes, to form a government of non-politicians (and non-parliamentarians) that will not make any drastic policy changes for the next couple of years while Lahoud stays in power.

Back to square one, as if we did not have elections. And heck why did we have elections? To have a majority that is not represented in the government?

This is a clear message to divide our ranks. And of course many will fall for it and start pointing fingers here and there.

Just look at the timing, targeting someone close to Lahoud right during our first Independence Government is being formed. And as if Seniora had to pay the price for uttering yesterday that this new government will be Made in Lebanon.

Please, I should just retire from writing and watching and following the news. I just see black smoke and pessimism.

Update: Yalla, Nasser Qandil is back on TV talking. Yalla, resuscitating the old faces. I'm disgusted! MP Gebran Tueni claims that no one has an interest in Lebanon's independence and reminded the likes of Qandil who accused Israel, that Syria also has an interest in us not moving forward.

Update 2: Listen to this, now the Baath Party and SSNP have whispered in Lahoud's ear that they want to be represented in the "National Unity" government. Bring it on! Now Franjieh, Karami and Arslan have to be also represented. "Walaw"!

Update 3: Jumblatt speculates that this is a clear message to the UN investigative team that there is a party stronger than them that will help stop them from reaching the truth.

I agree with Jumblatt that if we were given a chance at governing, then we will be held accountable; we either succeed or lose (we being the Opposition.) And it's true that through concessions, the essence of the Opposition drive is becoming diluted and has become almost missing.

Jumblatt also sees that more assassinations will be forthcoming unless we all "politically" decide to dismantle the existing intelligence apparatus, and he believes that dismantling this apparatus is indeed a long process.

"Nobody knows how many rebellions, besides political rebellions, ferment in the masses of life which people earth."


ThinkingMan said...

I hope this has the reverse effect, which is to unite us even further.

But this is really approaching "non-sense".

Anonymous said...

before everyone starts wondering how could it be syria or maktab teneh if he is so pro-syrian, i would ask if it isn't a simple case of "he knows too much". and if lahoud is as cruel (or as stupid) as he seems, i wouldn't put it beyond him to allow the sacrifice of his own son-in-law if he felt it would somehow save him. i doubt his father's alliance with aoun played a big role.
actually all this makes me wonder if the link between kassir, hawi, and now murr (and a couple of years back hobeika) wasn't a simple "kill all those who know too much or are coming too close to the truth" order. knowing kassir, he probably was putting together some big story super well researched and he had come too close. hawi was a shrewd player who socialised with every single one of the old and the new guard, murr was interior then defence minister, and hobeika, well, we all know hobeika's past, but of particular relevance would be the years he spent at the ministry of resources and energy, or was it electricity- and the ridiculous deals and sums of money that were syphoned down there with no result...
what do you guys think?

Mustapha said...

very plausible

Cheers said...

Anon 8:07

what do you guys think?

With all due respect, none of that.

Sunday evening, after lunch in Koraytem, Michel Aoun was on a talk show on New TV. In my opinion there was no need for him to be on a talk show two days in a row (the day before on VDL) unless he had a message to convey. Of the entire episode, an outstanding section was when they discussed the 1559.

In my opinion, this was the most blunt message, about 1559, since he returned from exile.

Speaking about the eventual application of 1559, he said: "There is no party in Lebanon that is against disarming Hezbollah except Amal/Hezbollah. Of course they say that it is subject to internal discussion, but no one is against it except these two parties".

No party, means no party.

Now, thinking of his alliance with President Lahoud, one could think that Lahoud wants to comply with the international will, but since he was the defending champion of the resistance, it's disfficult for him to switch position, hence the alliance.

Elias el Murr is/was the candidate for the defense ministry, which is quite awkward why Hezbollah didn't insist on it.

It's all about 1559 since Marwan Hamadeh attempt...


JoseyWales said...

This discussion is useful, interesting, and necessary. It is also happening in the chat rooms.

Who did it? Important question, but right now we do not know.

Who is responsible for DEALING with SECURITY before, during and, after these crimes?

That we should know the answer to, YESTERDAY. Is it the Interior Minister, the director general thereof, military intelligence, police intelligence, "amn 3am" (Jamil sayyed says no)??? Who the hell is it? Can we have a bunch of posts and NAMES all the way up to the PM and president???

Then ask these guys for results in the next 30 days, or whatever, or get lost one by one. Appoint new people and start over again, and again if need be.

Don't tell me the Gov. is already resigned, this stuff has been happening forever.

Doha said...


Now it makes sense why HA/Amal refused to take the Defense Ministry instead of the Foreign, when Seniora offered it. They wanted the Defense to Murr (an agreement with Lahoud)....

Anonymous said...

What I really want to know is what was the Mexican Ambassador's wife doing with Murr? Maybe it was the Mexican Amabassador who ordered the bombing? Geraldo Rivera

Cheers said...


I think this time round, the message was to Lahoud: "You could let Aoun return from exile, and form an alliance with him to save the allies from the chute, but you cannot switch position regarding the resistance to match Aoun's agenda".


Doha said...


This sounds extremely plausible.

Anonymous said...

yeah, may be...

Anonymous said...

Didnt Assad "exonerate" Syria from involvement in Hariri's death a couple of days ago, and didnt he make a statement that Lebanese politicians "across the entire political spectrum" are being targeted?

It really looks like the current Syrian regime is spiraling down like a jet without fuel.

It will be quite funny watching Lahoud (Emile) bark in his usual funny-looking, undignified manner, before he vetos the govt lineup and heads to the swimming pool in his Spedo. OK..no more lunch for me.


Hassan said...

Being this blog's officially designated pessimist, I can ask you to lighten up without sounding too cliche. When I think things can be ok, they probably will.

Things will get better; remember, We are Lebanese, right?

Yalla keep your ides coming!

Charles Malik said...

It seems I missed a lot of conspiracy theories.

Raja said...

Geraldo, nice question about the mexican ambassador's wife! ;)

Raja said...

on a more serious note, i believe that some elements in the syrian regime are determined to put up as many barriers as possible for lebanon's new-found "independence" and "democracy".

the two major 'democratization' movements in the region thus far have been iraq and lebanon. iraq is a mess. lebanon is close to being one, but not yet. thus far, Iraq was a perfect example of what could go wrong with international pressure for democratizing regimes in the region. Autocrats and security agents all over the region had grins as big as their heads, screaming at the Americans: "you see what happens when you encourage democracy in the middle east?"

i really don't think it is in any one of these regimes' interests to allow for a smooth transition in lebanon. for although lebanon is unique in the region and is not exactly democratic, observers in the west may not know that, and consequently may actually think that what happened over the past months was a successful democratic transition in the middle east as a consequence of western interference.

with such crazy ideas floating around, who knows what those "crazy westerners" would do next!!!