connecting the dots!

I have been accused by some readers of being too narrow in my analysis and interpretation of recent events. Last week, when Khaddam was interviewed by al Arabiyya, I published an entry that essentially claimed that Khaddam's interview was a card in the Hariri family's war against the Assads. Numerous anonymous writers criticized me for limiting my analysis of Khaddam's interview to the Hariri-justice-Lebanon prism, rather than taking a broader view that included the US, Saudi Arabia and their designs over Syria.
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Today, I plan to challenge that misperception by connecting what I see as the regional dots together. I hope to convey to you the idea that developments that occur in Iraq, Afghanistan, Iran, Lebanon and Syria are not just isolated and localized, but rather parts of a comprehensive regional competition for dominance over the region.

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First, we have Iran. A couple of days ago, the Caveman Linguist published a post that highlighted continued efforts by certain elements in the Iranian province of Baluchistan to challenge the regime's control of the province and consequently foment instability. Baluchistan is an overwhelmingly Sunni province, and one in which Ahmedenijad's convoy was attacked only around a month ago. Caveman suspects that the Americans, Saudis, and/or Pakistanis may have played a role in these efforts to destabilize Iran in response to Iran's own destabilization campaign of Iraq as well as its regional ambitions.

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Second, over the past two days, over 183 people (at least seven of whom were American soldiers and marines) have died in Iraq as a result of a sudden resurgence in terrorist violence. The level of bloodshed is the highest since elections took place in that country. This escalation has occured immediately after Khaddam's interview, and the consequent UN investigating committee's formal request to interview Bashar el Assad. Could these events be the product of the official Syro-Iranian agreement to "protect each other from all 'foreign threats,'" which was signed merely a couple of months ago?

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Third, and as if on cue, Iranian delegates left Vienna without showing up to an IAEA meeting that they were scheduled to attend. In the meeting, they were supposed to explain why they feel it is necessary for them to enrich their own uranium - or, in other words, justify to the international community certain aspects of their nuclear program. Apparently, they have come to the last-minute-conclusion that they do not need to justify anything concerning their nuclear program to anyone. They have also announced that they will begin to test machinery that can be used to make weapons-grade uranium in a "move that appears to scupper prospects of a settlement of its long-running nuclear dispute with the west."

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And finally, ten Afghanis were killed and at least fifty wounded as a result of a suicide-bomb attack in a province that the American ambassador was visiting that same day.
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Put together, these events may give a panoramic view of the tit-for-tat that is currently taking place between the regional and international powers that play the Middle Eastern game today. Assuming I am correct in connecting these dots, one fact stands out above all others: the common weapon that all of the belligerent parties share is instability – instability in Afghanistan, Iraq, Lebanon and even Iran. Another fact stands out: the recent spurt of violence in Iraq brings into question the popular belief that Zarqawi is the chief mover of terrorist violence in that country – unless he is in cahoots with the Iranians and Syrians.

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Whatever the case, it is clear to me that the recent upsurge of violence in Iraq, coming on the tail of Khaddam’s interview and the increased international pressure on Syria, simply cannot be mere coincidence! Moreover, the sudden, "inexplicable" departure of the Iranians from Vienna is actually all too explicable. These two countries are flexing their muscles and showing the world that they can stir up a considerable amount of trouble. As for the disturbances in Iran, check out the Caveman's analysis. There is a liklihood that Iran's adversaries are giving it a taste of its own medicine.