Tuesday, February 07, 2006

A Masterful Blow to March 14

Seems to me like a very heavy blow has been masterfully delivered to the March 14 camp by Hizballah only days after their return to cabinet. Not only are they in position to obstruct from within, but now have a solid working relationship with Aoun and working paper fit to be a future government manifesto. (No need to mention that their weapons are secure for the foreseeable future)

For the March 14 forces its a one-two punch that now threatens to knock them of their feet. First the Sunday riot, that was designed and implemented to show that Hariri does not effectively control the Sunni street, and now this. If we don't see a massive crowd on 14 February I’m afraid the momentum would have been lost and we can all kiss things good bye. I think Nasser Ass'ad picked up on this today and is starting to highlight the importance of somehow regaining the initiative.

It’s been my long standing opinion, as others on this blogg know, that accommodating Aoun (no matter how bitter an experience) was essential. Yes he is a hot-head that could promise trouble once secure in the Presidency, but better he gets there with March 14 than with Hizballah. What happened yesterday was a direct consequence of excessive cockiness by Jumblat and a Hariri camp that outsourced politics to him. The caricature in Al Balad of Jumblat eating his nails and on IV as he watches Aoun-Nasrallah says it all.

25 comments:

hummbumm said...

Another problem is that Hariri cannot effectively lead and be seen as a leader if he is not in lebanon.

Raja said...

Firas,

You make a strong point. Two days ago, Sunni bajam went on the rampage in Achrafieh, and yesterday Nasrallah met with Aoun and released a memorandum of understanding.

The message is written all over Aoun's forehead! Maronites are better off dealing the Shi'as, than they are with Sunnis. At the very least, HA is able to control its mob...

In his press conference in front of the Chruch, the night after the rampage, Aoun basically said it up front! "When the HA protesters went to Awkar, there were many more of them, but they didn't even break one window!" He also said "When a hundred protesters demonstrated in the Downtown area, the security services proved more than willing to step in and use force to end the protest..."

Let's say it as it is: Aoun is going to ride this new anti-Sunni sentiment in the Maronite community to score a resounding victory in the Baabda-Aley district.

March 14 is going to do the usual and blame the whole thing on Syria, and play up "Lebanese unity" (ta3ayush) and the whole list of March 14 rhetoric. All of those initiatives will fail.

The only way to win the Maronite population back is if the Sunni elite step up to the plate AND TAKE CHARGE. Sa'ad's press conference was extremely effective in conveying his seriousness in bringing the bajam to justice. Saad needs to do more. He needs to give more press conferences where he shows his outrage at his constituents, and pushes the security and judicial institutions to arrest all those individuals recorded on TV to prison.

Sa'ad needs to SHOW that he is personally following up on the matter, and that it concerns him personally.

That is the only way Future can salvage the March 14 political coalition. The Maronite community was violated by its supposed ally. Now, they need to be compensated. If Future does not step up to the plate now, I am afraid that March 14 will be lost!

acrobat said...

great log firas,
but i don't see why you are so disturbed raja about this? so what if march 14 is lost? it has become a totally vacuous movement since the elections, and it is time for something new. what the aoun/ha meeting did was to effectively negate both march 14 AND march 8th, so we should definetely see this as a plus.

and i think that aoun's presence on-the-spot in ashrafieh on sunday was a major coup, especially that he used it to make a firm statement that showed both leadership and initiative, and made sure the speech was completely christian-sided without becoming sectarian, thus cutting short the road for the geageas of this world. (i saw that article on the LF website yesterday that hinted at what couldve been a fantastic platform to the christian extremists). the hakim must be eating his nails up in the cedars as well. masterly indeed, chapeau bas to the general.

Dr Victorino de la Vega said...

Firas & Acrobat are quite right...

Anyhoo, there never was such a thing as the “March 14 movement”: it was just a publicity stunt engineered in Riyadh and (widely) distributed to the gullible masses by pliant Saudi-owned Lebanese media: LBC, Future TV, Al-Hayat, Al-Nahar…etc.

All freedom-loving Lebanese citizens MUST read the works of mainstream (as opposed to say followers of O.B. Laden) Saudi theologians whom King Fahd and his Lebanese-born courtier Rafic Al-Hariri both referred to as “the greatest thinkers of our time”: Nasiruddin Al-Albani and Abdul-Aziz Ibin Baz who wrote countless books and sermons discussing the operational practicalities of enlightening topics such as the final solution for Christians, Shiites and “secular dogs”.

Ironically, these leading Saudi “intellectuals” insisted on the imperative of starting with the Nasara who live and dwell on the Ummah’s soil…I guess the pro-Hariri fools who rampaged their way through East Beirut on Sunday were just “heeding the Wahhabi call”.

See wiki entry below for more edifying info on Saudi Arabia’s leading “Grand” Mufti and his Hariri-sanctioned “theology”:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ibn_Baz

Frightening stuff…

Doha said...

Yalla, Franjieh was resuscitated...he came back to life, saying that he takes the credit for bringing Aoun and Sayyid Nasrallah together, and said many base statements.

I believe that just watching the news now, Minister Fatfat who took over Sabeh's portfolio is doing a great job. He has called what happened on Sunday as a "murderous act against Lebanon".

Abu Lanjri Baker Al-Farran said...

Fatfat holds dual Saudi/Lebanese citizenships and was a member of the Dannieh branch of the fascist Moslem Brotherhood Youth Movement: we can no doubt count on him and on his disinterested "Darak" to catch Harirista church-burners and other Wahhabi thugs

Doha said...

Doctor De La Vega, you never seize to amaze me...you come in all shapes and forms...Wallah, everyone who is affiliated to the Future Movement have a dual Saudi-Lebanese citizenship!

Fatfat is to be commended for his stellar negotiation moves to bring LF and FM together last summer. He is actually constantly being threatened by extremist factions from Dinnieh.

Raja said...

de la vega, I am so tempted to delete your comments sometimes! how many pseudonyms do you have??? abu farran... charbel... who else???

We all get it. The wahhabis are crazy nuts. But don't try and turn every single Lebanese sunni into a wahhabi, mr! The Maronite community is one of the main beneficiaries of Saudi oil money since a considerable portion of their working-age men get employed in that kingdom. Does that make them wahhabis? PLEASE!

Anonymous said...

Vic,or whatever your name is, thank you for reminding us what a vicious idiot and a lier you are. Obviously you are one of those who would love to see Lebanon burn. You are a disgrace to humanity.
Dalal

Anonymous said...

Vick deliberately ignores the facts.

What was the Ahbash and the 'Marxist' PFLP doing in this crowd?

How come police arrested so many Syrians?

The mainstream parties like the FM didn't want this to happen. They never expected it in the first place. The fact that the Muslim clerics belonging to dar el Fatwa did everything they could to stop this mob tells me that it wasn't the FM and the Lebanese MB who started the riot. It was the Ahbash, the PFLP, the Tawheed and all the Syrians/Palestinians who infiltrated the crowd.

Why did the Hezbollah canceled its involvement? How come it knew that something bad was going to happen and that it shouldn't be associated with it?

There are widespread reports that Syrian agents/Islamists began to be infiltrated in Lebanon a few days ago. They came from the Syrian border.

Sorry pal, but when I see 1+1 I say two.

Comte Almaviva said...

Please stop bringing the PFLP into everything!

a) It is the General Command you mean, Jibril's branch and not George Habash's PFLP. This is creating some confusion among many lebanese. Check and see that the PFLP was the only group not to be involved in the lebanese civil war, unlike Fate7 or Jibril's group.

b) The rioters looked nothing like the elite fighting force that is jibril's pflp-gc. They were the Dinniyi people. Yes they probably had palestinians and syrians amongst them, but the majority were lebanese. People should stop saying: "These can't be Lebanese!" No they are. Wake up and live with it. Tell hariri that he reaps what he sows. Letting these hell hounds loose to get an electoral victory (95% of minyi-dinniyi voted hariri, ever wonder how?) is backfiring on us all. Brace up, these people will not go away any time soon.

frencheagle said...

first comment:
aoun succeeded to talk about hezbollah weapons which was considered 3 months ago as a red line not to be crossed, more then that he succeed to link theses weapons to shabaa' and bass meaning no more actions after shaba'a if the security is assured by the lebanese autorities, which is a huge progress made by the hezbollah

2th comment:
maybe this cooperation is to be linked with a greater danger that faces lebanon: the fanatism salafist that devastated ashrafieh on sunday.
if we look the whole picture, hamas in palestine, muslim brotherhood in egypt, we see what we have in iraq, and we see that the american do not find someone to replace assad in syria so the biggest threat is the establishement of a islamic regime in syria.
i dont care about the actual syrian regime, they are agonising now, but there is a constant in this region , any kind of syrian regime will try to control lebanon for its survival and i really think that we should avoid an islamic republic in syria.
going to the lebanese pciture, a islamic regime in syria is a threat to the christians, shiits, druzes and to the moderate sunnits.

to remind all of you, 3 months ago zarkawi in his statement expressed the strategy to enlarge his fight to lebanon and to syria, is it what is happening? maybe.

so the enemies of my enemies are my friends , till the threat is over.

the FM is really stupid, hezbollah knew on saturday trouble would happen, they cancelled their participation, dar al fatwa knew , they didnt cancel, the FM knew they didnt prevent the trouble to happen by intercepting the syrian before they reach beirut with theyir gaz tank and their molotov cocktails
they are reponsible by being inactive, they are convicted of being passive. therefore they can no more be trusted and therefore the spirit of 14 march is over.

about this spirit, i was a believe i m not anymore, i think there was convergency of interest at that time against the syrian occupation and this convergency is now over because of theses new parameters and this salafist threat , new convergencies of interest have to be done

regards

Dr Victorino de la Vega said...

Doha, Raja,

The TRUTH (or shall I say "Al-Haqiqa" as they do in the Qoreytem collaborationist milieu) is not always pleasant to hear but, please, don't shoot the messenger.

The previous blogger is quite right (and no, he's no avatar of Dr V!): you're so adamant to blame it all on Syria/the Baath party/the Lattaquieh feration of ophtalmologists/Queen Zenobia...etc. that you deliberately choose to switch into what I call DENNIYEH DENIAL mode!

My Damascene blogger friend t_desco summed it up brilliantly at Josh's:

"... As As'ad AbuKhalil argues, the latest ICG report does indeed offer a possible explanation for the presence of radical Wahhabi groups from the North at the demonstration in Beirut.

Lebanon: Managing the Gathering Storm
Crisis Group Middle East Report N°48, 5 December 2005:

(In the highly competitive contests in the north) "Hariri also allied with Islamists, including members of the Muslim Brotherhood.16 Aoun asserted that “the Hariri camp worked against me by funding and promoting Muslim religious fanatics in Tripoli”.17"

17: "Crisis Group interview, Beirut, 27 October 2005. Hariri paid $48,000 in bail for four members of the Dinniyeh Group of 200 to 300 Islamist militants who in January 2000 launched a failed attempt to establish an Islamic “mini-state” in north Lebanon. ...
After the elections, Hariri used his parliamentary majority to secure amnesty for 22 of the Islamists as well as seven militants detained in September 2004 on suspicion of plotting to bomb the Italian and Ukrainian embassies in Beirut. See Al-Mustaqbal, An-Nahar and The Daily Star, 10 June 2005, and below."
p.3

(Various groups) "note that one of the new parliamentary majority’s first measures was to amnesty dozens of Sunni militants, including seven detained in
September 2004 for plotting to bomb the Italian and
Ukrainian embassies in Beirut.91 During the elections,
Saad al-Hariri had paid some $48,000 as bail for four
of them, who were welcomed at a celebration attended
by Hariri’s ally, the current prime minister, Siniora."
p.13
International Crisis Group/Lebanon"

NOTHING TO ADD

frencheagle said...

to add one thing
today i m feeling the current power always accuse syria as they were accusing before israel of all what was happening and therefore denying their responsibility of being passive during the sunday's events.
again how come syrians can cross lebanon with molotov cocktails and gaz tank without being intercepted.

mohamad said...

Why FM is loosing the sunnis?

Mini-Hariri is really a political newby and dealing with lebanese affairs with stupidity.
This kid thinks he can rule lebanon with his father's money, and without giving a small share to the lebanese!

mohamad said...

One more thing:

The recent statement of the so-called March 14 gang is laughable. They presented info (jordanians crossings...etc.) that needs weeks of information gathering and dispatched it after 24 hours of the riots. Either they had the info before and didn't act which mean they should resign and maybe move all to their misogynist KSA OR they are playing the game of blame-Syria-all-the-time thinking it is an easy sell to the lebanese!

Screw you Jumblat.

Anonymous said...

It was about time.Maybe a wake up call for all these fools who think they represent the 1.5 millions who took
the road on March 14.Eighty percent of the people of March 14 were decent citizen who wanted a free independant
Lebanon.Not a Lebanon ruled by a Taliban,the wizkid of Mukhtara
and a pseudo illuminated Monte Cristo.
I hope there will be a battle in Baabda Aley and we will see the real weight of
the Monk of the Cedar.
Jumblat is too smart do be dragged
into a lost battle.Even his disciplined
druze electorate wont vote for the
representative of the Butcher of Abey.
It was one thing to vote for a senile Naim it will be another to ask the druze to vote for any LF representative
including May.

Vox Populi - Agent Provocateur said...

It's not Syria's fault!


Ashrafieh was sacked and the embassy was burned because of a Pig-Squealing Championships in Trie-sur-Baise’s (near Tarbes) called la Pourcailhade. (try not to laugh)

http://cedarsawakening.blogspot.com/2006/02/fake.html

Damn French! I will behead the first French I am going to see. I want all the people who participated to la Pourcailhade to be executed because they offended Islam.

Anonymous said...

So wait a second, you people seriously believe that Aon's supporters are going to stick with him as he prostitutes their long-term convictions? What Aon doesnt understand is that the loyalty of his base to him is not that deep. I think his new stunt is gonna come back to bite him in his ever so lard ass. Poor man is ensuring he never sees baabda palace again. booohooo.

FGA

why-discuss said...

Frencheagle,
"Fattfat said preliminary investigations could not substantiate claims by the country's main anti-Syrian coalition that Syrian forces and Jordanian and Palestinian militants had infiltrated Lebanon to cause Sunday's riots."
Reuter
So your claim of hords of syrians crossing the borders is totally fictitious, another of these rumours Lebanese enjoy...
Aoun-Hezb
Finally two serious politicians do what we are all waiting for: a formal and written agreement, while the wanabe politicians of the so called 14 march are still screaming, accusing and doing nothing.
I just hope that the tandem Hezb and CPL will find a serious sunni ally (would Hariri make that move?)and Mr Jumblat will find himself and the druze community in the cold. Because of the obvious collapse of the 14 march amalgam, I bet Jumblatt will soon change his stance to flirt avec Hezb and Aoun. It is better to be on the side of the most powerful, no?

Ramzi S said...

Based on the NaharNet's English translation. I did not see that the Hizb - Aoun agreement moved Hizb even an inch away from their previous statements. All it did was get Aoun support for his presidency bid and possible electoral alliance.

If you read the article clearly. I highlighted certain words:

>>Unlike the position made by the anti-Syrian camp, Aoun agreed with Nasrallah that verifying the identity of the Shabaa Farms is LEBANONS RESPONSIBILITY, not Syria's.

(The Lebanese government has already sent all its paperwork to the UN. And UN will then ask Syria for papers and Syria will refuse so DEAD END)

>>Aoun's party also agreed with Hizbullah that delineating the border between Lebanon and Syria should take place AFTER an agreement between the two states.

(Agreement between the two states!?? Haha. The Syrians will never sign an agreement unless they have a puppet government in Lebanon)

>>WAYS to protect Lebanon's independence and sovereignty can be achieved by liberating the Shabaa Farms from Israeli occupation and setting free Lebanese prisoners held in Israel, according to the statement.

(Again no mention if this will lead to Hizballah getting rid of their arms)

AbdulKarim said...

Well said Ramzi S plus they never mentioned anything of Syria's responsibilities for the assassinations that happened from Hariri to Tueni.

Moreover, they have agreed on a confessional democracy rather than the democracy of the majority. This is very vague as it could simply mean no voting in the cabinet which is against Taef. Or it can mean that seats in parliament should not be distributed according to the true sectarian proportions. While Aoun might choose the first interpretation, HA might choose the second one. The devil is in the details.

frencheagle said...

why discut?

u re really wrong, today fatfat admitted that huge mistakes happened in the internal security mistake
they have been preventing they didnt do anything
hezbollah knew, they cancelled their participation
dar al fatwa knew, they didnt cancel
the government knew they didnt prevent it
they are guilty of negligence
and to tk the word of amine gemayel when hariri's car was blowed up:
if they didnt know, they are guilty of negligence, if they knew they are guilty of being passive complice of theses incidents

the 14 of march coalition is over in the scale of the population , the 14 of march of the polticians remain but they are stupid enough and thei proved to be a failure on all the scales, political, economical, security etc...

besides all that theses incidents are a proove of that new threats are existing in lebanon which is the islamic threat , and let me joke about the syrian threat, i dont care about them it s an agonising regime, i want to see what s next, what saved this regime till now is that we dont know by what to replace it with without this fanatics that manifestated

to resume: U forget the lebanese responsability, there were no hord of syrians crossing but they were mostly from inside and not syrians but lebanese fanatics whatever the mass media controled by the actual power is saying, they are admiting today they were huge failure and bavure as we say in french , they are trying to DENY THEY RESPONSIBILTY on syrians etc...

they are missing the new threats in lebanon and i hope from now they will be overthrown soon as they are competent in all what they are doing

frencheagle said...

and as u said, this syrian excuse is just an excuse in order not to face their responsibilities of what happened in the events and in order to avoid to appear guilty of what happened, this was the point i wanted to show, they tried to deny their responsibility and today they are admiting they have a huge responsibility by ordering an internal inquiry about the incidents inside the army and the ISF as many people and i m among them didnt not believe their lies

why-discuss said...

Lebanon against the "regional microbes"
Frencheagle, I agree with you on most points, but not about the islamic threat as you mention it. There is a long, historical and deep distrust existing between christians and moslems and moslems among Shia & Sunni and the Druze. In countries where these religions exist, the distrust has be hiding and made impotent mostly by dictatorships (Syria, Iraq) or repression on minorities (Iran, Turkey). In Lebanon these divisions have shown their ugly face during the several civil wars and their manifestation had receded during the Syrian control of the country.
The removal of a dictatorhsip unleashes these antagonistic forces exarcerbated by the economical decline of these countries and the absence of a democratic education (see Iraq). Lebanon has gotten rid of the syrian umbrella and now has to face these deep wounds and heal them. Therefore it is liable to "infections" from some of the many "microbes" that are present in the area and who are benefitting from the chaos: Islamic extremists, Israel, Palestinian extremists, business mafia etc..
The step that Nasrallah and Aoun have made is huge and sets an example of how to reconciliate with your ennemies for the sake of the country and to offer the highest resistance possible to the "regional microbes".
Lebanon is under threat, yes.