Tuesday, February 07, 2006

Why March 14 will always trump Aoun.

March 14 sparks hope in Lebanese because it symbolizes reconciliation. Reconciliation with our past and reconciliation with ourselves. Aoun, on the other hand, symbolizes confrontation.

March 14 sparks hope in Lebanese because it encourages Lebanese to focus on their best attributes. Aoun, on the other hand, always reminds us of our worst attributes.

March 14 sparks hope in Lebanese because it stands up to the terrorizing Ba'ath regime that occupied us for 16 years after the civil war and continues to wage war on us. Aoun, on the other hand, continues to maintain a disturbingly vague position with regards to the enemy.

March 14 sparks hope in Lebanese because it is one of those rare moments during which Lebanon shined brightly and attracted the entire world's attention. Aoun, on the other hand, seems to get attention for all the wrong reasons.

March 14 sparks hope in Lebanese because it is a coalition of moderates. All members of the coalition strive to highlight their moderate elements and burry their extreme elements. Aoun, on the other hand, is extreme in his essence.

March 14 sparks hope in Lebanese because the glue that binds its members together is modernity and Lebanonism. Aoun, on the other hand, needs to explain exactly what the glue that binds him to Hizballah is.

For all of these reasons, March 14 will always trump Aoun. Behind the sectarian politics that we are all familiar with, there is the realm of ideas, ideals and norms. The ideals that March 14 represents are the foundation of the Lebanon we all would like to see come to fruition.

March 14 is our hope. It is what binds us all together, whatever our sect.


acrobat said...

oh give me a break!

moderates? walid jumblatt, samir geagea. you're losing the plot my friend.

disturbingly vague position? aoun: "now that syria is out, we do not have a quarrel with it, as long as it leaves us alone, we call for normal relations and diplomatic relations, and a drawing up of the borders" all he is saying is that let us not now start using syria the way we have used israel for the last 30 years: anything that goes wrong we blame it, and we never take responsibility for our own acts.

aoun has been calling for dialogue for quite a while, and has proved he can even talk to the grouping that is most alien to his values (except the anti-corruption stance). it is "march 14" that has been refusing dialogue because it worries it will give him too much credit. so wow, let's keep on trumping him.

reconciliation with our past? i would much rather confront our past and go past it than reconcile by forgetting instead of forgiving, because the only reason for forgetting is to forget the tainted history of the so-called march 14 leaders, all with corruption and blood and treason on their hands.

and what exactly are those "worst attributes" aoun is reminding you of? all i see is someone who is radically changing the political scene, which is what i thought we were calling for to begin with.

march 14 stands up to the terrorising baath regime: hello? last time i looked it was those same people who were running the show for the last 15 years, very happy to accomodate the baathist regime!

march 14 one of those rare moments lebanon attracted the world's attention: maybe you were too young but 16 years ago, it was people supporting aoun (from all sects) who brought the world's attention to baabda. and bridging differences is now "the wrong reason" to attract attention!?

the christians have been marginalised for 15 years, we all know the depression and problems that caused. imagine marginalising the chi'a for a couple of years, now with their numbers and weapons and regional "depth", you think they will wither and go away?

the glue that binds its members together is modernity ... (again, two names: jumblatt and geagea) and today the ministers themselves contradicting one another.

that blog sounds too much like a pep talk of someone who realises his team is losing, and that it was never a real team to begin with, but a motley crew of short-term masla7jiyyeh. stop trying to convince us, you are not even convincing yourself. march 14 is gone, at least the so-called grouping that hijacked this great date.

the spirit of the march 14 demonstration, the real thing, the one that includes everyone and the aounists you fear so, lives on.

this blog is dead.

Raja said...

acrobat, one thing you said is right: this is a pep talk. The rest is your opinion, and I respectfully disagree.

There are several points I would like to draw your attention to.

Those politicians that "hijacked this great date" .... Do you actually think that March 14 could have taken place without them? Could Aoun have gone down to Beirut and called on 1.5 million Lebanese to protest? No, my friend. That could not have happened. So let us place credit where credit is due.

As for Aoun's position regarding Syria, which you summarized as, "we do not have a quarrel with it, as long as it leaves us alone," allow me to ask you who killed Gebran Tueini, all the other personalilities since the murder of Hariri and Fleihan. Aoun has no quarrel with Syria despite its declaration of war on Lebanon.

And finaly, let me point out that when Jaejae and Walid Jumblatt kiss and make-up, they signal to their constituents that moderation is what is called for. And since their constituents include some of the most extreme elements in the country, that gesture and cooperation is exactly what the doctor ordered.

I could go on, but I need to have breakfast. Besides, someone tells me that this blog is "dead"!

hummbumm said...

Raja, very nice though definitely wishful thinking in some sense. This infatuation people have with Aoun is so strange. The guy was in exile, scurrying around trying to get the US to put pressure on Syria throughout the nineties, to no real effect. Hariri helps push through 1559, then his death pushes out the syrians and Aoun returns, and is deluded enough to think that he was the primary mover. Now tht he is back the Syrians are no longer the bad guys. People accuse Jumblatt of being a chameleon but look at Aoun. Anti Syrian oops now the syrians are just peachy. Strongly secular, now playing the christian card and allying with Hizbullah. All for unifying the country under one army, now condoning HA arms. This is a guy who killed thousands to crush the LF because of his anti militia stance, now HA is just fine. He is not worse than anyone else, but he certainly is not better, and anyone who thinks so should read up on his history.

frencheagle said...

1st comment:
u guys forgot something: i dont care about the syrian actual regime, they are agonising since they left lebanon, all of you that are still talking about the syrian threat are making a huge mistake and the most important thing is what s next.
i dont want to have the threat of an islamic republic in syria that would threat us, if the actual syrian regime remains it is just because we dont know how to replace it without this threat for the moment
when u re saying claiming , shouting that aoun is with the pro syrian u re making a HUGE mistake by not forseeing this problem and this is also the problem of usualy the future movement.

2nd comment , linked to the first comment, we need to avoid an salafist al qaida threat to join the forces of the christians, of the shiits of the druzes and of the moderated sunnits. the hezbollah therefore must be today in the game, and this is the point of view i discovered last sunday with those events.

3rd comment.
aoun succeded to talk abou the hezbollah weapons when thoses people of the future and of joumblatt didnt succeed, it was a red line for the hezbollah and it was no more a red line with aoun.
therefore a dialogu is better then "shooting first and talking after".

4th comment:
the 14 march itself ?
is it a spirit that was uniting people or politicians?
i was a believer when i was in the street with muslims, druzes and christians,
but i m not finding myself close to the politicians such as geagea and joumblatt that are wars criminals and with the future that collaborated with the syrian during the 15 years of occupation
therefore i believe for the 14 of march of the population but i m not believing in the 14 of march of the politicians are screwed it up.
also the 14 of march of the politicians is more a convergency of interest but the situation has changed since, we need to find now covergency of interest against this islamic salafist threat linked to hamas, linked to the muslims brother hood in egypt, linked to irak , linked to syria through al qaida and linked to lebanon finally.
i believe that syrians were behind the first bombings as maybe the people asking for it, by using islamic habache groups as melhis arrested 2 of them, but now i believe that they lost the control over theses fanatisc and to remin you all zarkawi stated in a speech 2 months ago that he wants to open new fronts in syria and in lebanon.
and we saw al qaida operations against israel from north lebanon trying to put oil on fire btw israel and the hezbollah, we saw they attaqued the army, we saw that existing cells exist in lebanon and therefore this is the main threat today.

the 14 of march therefore doesnt exist anymore, it s "passé" as we re saying in french, history if u prefer in english

it is not a coalition of moderates as the future knew accident were about to happen and the government didnt do anything to prevent them, dar al fatwa knew and they didnt cancel , the hezbollah knew and they cancelled their presence, therefore there is a passible complicity btw the future and those fanatics today, the future being in the government as being appointed as holding the prime minîster place, the interior minister place is guilty,
they are guilty if not preventing it to happen, how can people cross lebanon without being arrested, so it means that lebanese collabored with theses fanatics

the 14 of march of the population is dead , remains still the 14 of march political coalition but i m doubting strongly now with what happened, new convergencies are needed to be done and this is the current game

to resume all that, it seems u didnt deal with the future (real world and not the political movement) and the future movement coallition with the christians is passé


Ms Levantine said...

March 14 the political movement is a joke. March 14 the aspirations of the majority of the Lebanese lives on, but not for long. A form needs to be given to this aspiration. On the good side I keep hearing that "christians" have no future in Lebanon: great, we solved half the problem. Now let us make sure that "moslems" have no future in Lebanon either, so the true Lebanese can emerge.

Doha said...


this blog is not dead. if you think it's dead, then stop commenting on it.

Charles Malik said...

Coincidentally enough, I've just blamed 14 March in my newest post.

Yes, I'm a bit behind in Lebanese politics since I've been in Iraq for the past few weeks, but the government has accomplished so little it's disgusting.

I don't know why, but I get the feeling that the militias are arming. Our leaders are getting ready to help Bashar destroy Lebanon.

Firas said...

This post and most comments that followed are emotionally charged and do not reflect the kind of rational arguments usually made on this blog. If we are going to exhaust ourselves in the defense of political parties (and the sects behind them) then this will no longer constitute a meeting of free minds. There is no doubt that our politicians (on both sides) are hypocrites who shift their arguments according to their sectarian interests, but let’s not blindly defend them and do the same.

JoseyWales said...

Too many things on the table here.


March 14 mvmt is in charge of the gvmnt and therefore RESPONSIBLE. Can't rule and manage, resign.

March 14: was also a lot of people fed up with Syria, rather than blind supporters of the usual politicians.

I have my problems with Aoun's stance on Syria and Lahoud. But you've got to admit that it is VERY important that the Shia community not be isolated.

Could you imagine, the tension and problems if Hezbo had no Christian partner today?

Anonymous said...

AOUN is a PRO syrian rat! He thinks he is smarter than everyone and THINKS he will be the next president after the other monkey lahoud leaves. HAHAHA...the guy needs to wake up. HE WILL NEVER, NEVER be president of lebanon until he agrees with the March 14 alliance and blames syrian for what is going on. I think he and bashar are butt buddies, he's a dildo! Aoun's true colors are showing and ever since he returned to Lebanon I, along with others, have been saying that he cut a deal with the monkey syrians! Aoun, nasrallah, lahoud, berri, franjieh, arslan, ALL pro syrian rats!


Raja said...

French Eagle, you say that you are better of with a dictatorship in Syria because they are the alternative to a Sunni Salafi state. But tell me... where do you draw the line? Once you justify a dictatorship for one reason, where do you stop??? Using your own logic, can't I justify a dictatorship's occupation of Lebanon because of "security"/"stability" reasons? Please... come up with a better rationale.

I would also like to say one more thing on that matter. We all know that these dictatorships live off the fear that we all have of Muslim fundamentalists. They manipulate this fear to perpetuate their rule.

So French Eagle, and all others who have turned into supporters of Syria because they are scared of a Salafi alternative, I say the following:


You have, in essense, turned into conduits for Syrian propaganda!


Anonymous said...

Who are you and what you have you done to the real Raja? :-)

To me, March 14th symbolized One thing and one thing only : A common interrest of different sects to kick syria out.
The end.

Everythign else is an illusion, that's why most fo the people who give it so much meaning always end up disillusionned.

"However allah ya3tikon 3a add nyetkon"


Raja said...

I am the angrier version, pat. Thanks for comment. :) Looking forward to more.

JoseyWales said...

We are now scared that the Baath might be replaced by something else? My God what could possibly happen?

Might the new regime send its army to Lebanon for 30 years?

Might they blow up their (secular) enemies in our streets?

Might they pressure our (lousy) press into shutting up?

Might they arm rabid fanatics in Lebanon?

Might they sponsor goons to attack buildings and embassies in Beirut?

These horrible things are so far-fetched that I need help imagining them!!! (/sarcasm)

More seriously, Baathism has been useless in fighting anything, why should it be more successful before salafism?

You stand a chance vs. fanaticism or lousy deologies with freedom and a reasonable alternative. You have no chance facing those loonies with other loonies (Baathists).

Anonymous said...

Allow me first to say that Aoun is no better than anyone else, he is trying to ride any possible horse that can get him to become president. Regardless of what it is. Historically, he is ready to sacrifice anything to get to that goal,
1988: the Maronites,
later 1988: the army and LF
1989: The maronites again
1990: the army
1995 to 2005: his supporters
2005 onwards, Anyone again.

Explain to me the strategic thinking;
Building a better state by fighting LF: result = destroyed army and LF
Fighting the Syrians to get out of Lebanon: results = total control of lebanon.
Democracy: Result = he is the only acceptable candidate
Freedom of speach: Result = attacking the Patriarch in Bkerki with angry mobs, silencing reporters when he is just a mere deputy
Heroism: result = running first to the french embassy leaving his supporters and army to get the hitting.

I am not supporter of anyone but believe in a free country only and to be proud of our flag and our unity.
Aoun is no better than anyone, but his supporters may want to ask themselves one day if they are following a man or a country, cause of they think Aoun is the country, sorry but he's 75, Alzheimer's is close than the presidency, and whats the plan after him? he has no sons, how about Jubran Bassil, the prick can't even talk properly.

Hizbulla: for Gods sake, cmon, you liberated Lebanon? you caused trouble for Israel true, but liberated Lebanon ???

Define an enemy? Someone who occupies your land and mistreats your fellow country men and imposes economical and policatal problems and rules you with injustice. Rings a bell ?

While HA was busy fighting Isreal, Syria was butchering the left of the country, if you think you have the right to decide who you fight, then you are not my fellow countrymen, a resistance is against the occupation, whatever the color is, but you are blinded with Isreal and forgot Syria, only then we can call you resistance, Syria raped, killed, stole, butchered your fellow countrymen, where were you then ?? ??

Weam Wahhab, please read this: "Your face looks like the ass of a monkey and your speaches are worse than sticking bananas into that ugly face you syrian agent.
Franjieh; its your grandpa, god rest his soul somewhere in hell who got the syrians into the country with his lack of leadership skills
Areslan and kanso: the kennels are a good place to recruit new supporters.

Jumblatt? had his share in the war and is so immersed in killing that we can forget it.

Berri, how did the son of no one become a billionaire, pure business right ???

I hope I had time to add few more names, but lets get united and not fight each other because of politicians, 1.5 or 2 million came down in march 14 to condemn the killing of Hariri and his convoy, and to ask syria to get out for good, not to elect Saad or sanyora or mouawad or anyone else, we want a country, not Aoun as a leader or GeaGea or Hariri or anyone else.

We all want a country, let us look into what politicians do on the ground rather than follow them blindly, let them earn our votes the next election with their actions not promises?

Let them earn the right to represent us as Lebanese not Aounies or Hariris or Ishtrakis or HA or Amal or anything else , we have one flag not a million and the red in the flag is not orange and the cedar in it is grean and not the syrian stars!!!
its a cedar and not a hand with a gun like HA.


why-discuss said...

Raja.. Very emotionnal display of your attachment to the 14 mars gathering ideal. Yet The "14 mars alliance" is far from what you wish it would be and has not fulfilled its promises. Therefore it must go and leave its place to people who can deliver. Anyway cracks are appearing all over, its collapse is imminent. Sorry, but let's be real

frencheagle said...


first of all i m saying that i prefer to be having lebanon next to a small devil regime like the actual syrian regime that is currently really weak then to a big devil islamic republic
bzc anyway whatever the syrian regime is their objective will be to control or to have an influence over lebanon.
why the american didnt change the syrian regime?
why bush was asking to france if they were having any clue about who they can get @ the head of that country ?
because there is right now no alternative in syria unless there is an islamic regime.
here u re living in the past , unable to project yourself in the future.
in the case such scenario will happen, of course the fanatism people that we saw last sunday and that dar al fatwa brought in lebanon by their manifestation will be very happy

maybe is it propanganda to see what happened in egypt? the victory of hamas in palestine is just propaganda as well coming from the ex soviet union movies and the war in iraq is existing just in some american movies, they are putting on tv to entertain people ?

if u need to be more global in your analysis, u re narrowing too much on lebanon when u need to get a more global view about what is happening in the middle east and the irrupting of this fanatism

your analysis is really short term and not on the long term.

and by the way why dar al fatwa didnt cancell? why the governement didnt do anything to prevent theses accidents to happen.

according to rumors , the future movement paid for the buses that brought theses people in beirut
they are also claiming that it is for this reason that geagea in his first LBCI interview was supporting the protestators and when the trouble began he retracted himself.

if anyone saw the LBCI in the morning he would have been seeing that.

the 14 of march alliance is over for the christians, it s a security bankrupcy , maybe it is still existing on the political side but soon or later it will change as well on this level

and as history u should project yourself not in the past but in the future and see the new game that is pulled now in the lebanese political game and the new players inside it.

to the anonymous user:
plz check the 2 strategy documentary on the 2 links, u ll see that u re wrong for the events u stated , u didnt understand history and how history and strategy is played,
http://www.lubnan-alkawi.com/mn/index.php?lb=documentaries check the 2 french documentaries about the lebanese war and how the syrians played to understand aoun strategy at that time.

also do not forget that the LF of bashir were different then the LF from Geagea, bashir never tried to subsitute the LF to the lebanese state as geagea did, there was no project in bashir minds when the war was ended but there was a political project for geagea

same thing apply, it s a new game with new rules and new objectives
let us move on , things have changed since the syrians departure from lebanon

frencheagle said...

by the way

"BEIRUT: While some members of the March 14 Forces maintained their accusations of the Syrian regime's hand in provoking Sunday's riots in downtown Beirut, a leading member of the coalition said information supporting the claims was "not 100 percent accurate." "

yeah there is something wrong from the beginning and soon or later we ll know what, and soon or later we ll see that "houston, we have an salafist problem" in lebanon

the future movement first tried to dismiss their responsibility, seeing the lies that were broadcasted by their media wasnt enough for the people to believe them, they are going now to reveal a new kind of story closer to the truth of what happened sunday
everything is not black or white but gray

Dr Victorino de la Vega said...

“Yes, I'm a bit behind in Lebanese politics since I've been in Iraq for the past few weeks” [L.P.]

We all knew you were on the Pentagon payroll: no need to divulge your cover!

“Might [new Syrian regime] sponsor goons to attack buildings and embassies in Beirut??” [José W.]

No way José!
The Saudi-sponsored Wahhabi thugs who rampaged their way through Achrafiyyeh last Sunday are for the most part loyal Hariri voters from Dinnieh, Tripoli and Saida: actually, they probably hate Syria and Michel Aflaq’s “infidel” Western ideology [“Al Afqar Al-Mustâwradeh”] more than you do!

How can you be so blind?
Or shall I say SO intellectually dishonest?

JoseyWales said...


I just asked a QUESTION as evident from the "?" at the end.

YOU are the one stating a supposed fact based on nothing. Do you know for a FACT that Syrian provocateurs were NOT involved. (Does that square with the similar embassy burnings in Teheran and Damascus)

Or are you just upset that I deleted your ANONYMOUS post on my blog yesterday. Others have patience for your idiocy on their blogs I don't.

As to intellectual dishonesty, I'll stake my posts against yours any day of the week. Hell, you are not even honest about your identity Vega/Lanjri/Anonymous/Qahtane......

Dr Victorino de la Vega said...

Well actually I did NOT post on your blog yesterday!!

A fact easily checkable by comparing my IP details to the alleged "Anon" you're referring to

Anyhoo, without wanting to offend, I must confess I haven't read your blog for more than 6 months...

Anonymous said...

This blogger is blindly following the Future Movement, clinging to the notion that 14th March is a political grouping when it was always a people power display.

The dialogue between the FPM and Hizbullah has clearly exposed those who call themselves the 14th March for what they are. The same people in power before, still in power, offering nothing, no ideas, politically bankrupt and inept.

The people of Lebanon are waking up to this fact fast !!


Anonymous said...

Aoun and HA has the same agenda and they can never meet. Anyway HA might be more loyal than the backstabber called Aoun. He always ends up fighting with his allies. Kinda like a dog with a bell on his tail, anytime he moves, he will end up biting the tail.


JoseyWales said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
JoseyWales said...


Vic, you stinking liar,

Based on your location, IP(s), server etc..I KNOW FOR A FACT:

Lie #1: it was YOU posting as "anonymous", 2 days ago.

Lie #2: You have visited my blog frequently in the past 6 months.

That's 2 lies in 2 sentences, about your running "average", since you claim to also be a statistician (BWAHHAHAHA AGAIN).

We may never know exactly what you do, but a liar and a buffoon you are.

Anonymous said...

How come Dr Vic is not attacking Hariri and Sanyoura, and wahhabis and the prophet?
We are used to his wiseness and we feel lost without his racist, sectarian remarks.

mohamad said...

Raja, you look like a propaganda machine member of the idiot mini-Harari.
Very silly post and just proves that the so-called 14 March (remainings?) is in a real crisis.