Update 3: Just got news that guns were fired in Beirut in support of Seniora's speech. This was in return for guns fired in Dahieh in support of Nasrallah's speech this morning. (Naharnet claims they're fireworks)
Update 2: I didn't get the chance to listen in on PM Seniora's speech live (which I will do at 8PM Eastern time), but for now this is what Naharnet has posted:
Prime Minister Fouad Saniora vowed on Thursday that his government will fight attempts to bring back foreign tutelage on Lebanon. Saniora also urged the Lebanese to stand by the “legitimate” government, adding that the only way to bring down the cabinet is through parliament.
Update: PM Seniora will be addressing the Lebanese at 8PM Lebanese time, which is 1PM Eastern time.
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Okay, they called for the open demonstrations starting tomorrow Friday in downtown Beirut!
Sayyid Nasrallah in a televised address called on all Lebanese to join Hizbullah in protesting against the current government. What struck me most was his claim that the government did not do much since it took power. I wonder why? The war this summer?...
And then Najah Wakim was dug out from hybernation and suddenly was on TV calling on civil servants to stop taking orders from the government, when the Opposition signals the beginning of such a move. He added that this move will ensure the success of toppling the government.
I never knew that Lahoud liked Najah Wakim and chatted together on peaceful strategies of demonstrating.
But at any rate, if I was back home I would fight to not allow this government to be toppled. It's not about any particular minister in the government or the Prime Minister, but it's more symbolic than that. At a much younger age, populism was attractive. But now, I see "one-color" populism, a la Aoun and Hizbullah, appalling!
It's challenging being diplomatic at this time. I don't feel that I need to appease anyone by being more conciliatory. Perhaps because March 14 adopted a conciliatory attitude since the Syrians left the country, we are losing power. Remember the overtures from March 14 towards Aoun to join them for elections? And then after everything that happened, PM Seniora's overtures to Aoun to take part in the government? What about coopting Hizbullah and Amal all along? We did not see any good will coming from them, least of which is supporting the tribunal. What about the dialogue sessions, which were a farce, because Hizbullah went ahead and decided to hijack the country's foreign policy? The list can go and on...
What do they want? Do they want a March 14 force that is of one color? Of one sect or two? Would they respect us more if we carried arms? If we used threats? If our Prime Minister insulted heads of states? Or wore an army fatigue?
I should stop here!
"Nobody knows how many rebellions, besides political rebellions, ferment in the masses of life which people earth."
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11 comments:
It seems to me that Shiites especially and Muslims overall are underrepresented in Lebanese political power and March 14, with the encouragement of the US, France and Israel are fighting just to maintain an unfair political advantage.
Seniora speech:
Let me guess "Let's have more talks"? Maybe Berri can come up with another screwed up forum for talks, and March 14 will continue to kiss his ass.
As to all parties, all these morons on both sides are represented in parliament: talk there you freaks.
In normal sane countries: demos and sit-ins are for marginal groups, outside the political process.
Doha,
I know you want action too.
What to do: don't be weak, attack HA and Aoun verbally, try to split the alliance Berri-HA-Aoun, USE the instrunments of power (Army, police, TV, radio, projects,...) to assert your authority instead of begging and doing nothing.
Get the economic associations strongly and vocally on your side etc.....
Today is a prime example: Seniora ought to say: my orders to the army are so and so. Instead, we get word from the army commander and it looks like he is the one in charge.
These people do not understand dialogue or negotiation. Their idea of negotiating is "my way or the highway". There is no sense in bending over backwards for them. These people only understand the use of force. I'm normally about as pacifist as you can find, but I've had enough.
Declare marshall law, arrest all these morons and charge them with treason and throw them in jail. Time to crack the whip and reclaim Lebanon.
AlGhaddab,
You claim that the lebanese demonstrating tomorrow are doing it because they view this government as unrepresentative, and because they want a say in the direction the country is going.
The truth of it is, these Lebanese are demonstrating because their religious leader told them to. No more, no less. If Nasrallah told them tomorrow that he was happy with the government, they would stop dead in their tracks.
You depict this as a group of people exercising their free will. I disagree. These people are following a leader blindly. That's about as far from free will as you can get.
They have every right to voice their opposition to the government, and to ask for a say so in the direction this country is headed for. It's called elections. That is how democracy works. You elect representatives who push your ambitions and desires into government. And if you lose said elections, you have to wait till the next elections and try again. That's how it works in France, England, the US and every other civilized democracy this side of Timbuktu.
The Lebanese people have a LOT to learn about the meaning of Democracy. Democracy means respect of the state's insitutions. And respect for laws and rules, including the rule that says when you lose an election, the winner gets to run the country. These childish neanderthal ideas that "everyone gets to rule together" do not work and never have and never will. A country is not run by concensus.
When Lebanese learn that, then I'd get right behind you statement that "these are people who want a say in the directon this country is taking". Until then, I call bullshit!
Ghadab Guy,
I never said shoot people and arrest leaders just like that.
I said Seniora should act like as a PM which means using the instruments at his disposal legally and to apply the law.
Here we go now, people shooting guns in the streets, on both sides. I want the authorities to show force, arrest these people, and signal to all that infractions will not be tolerated.
Show weakness and then you'll have a bloodbath on your hands, God forbid.
In a more general sense the Syrians and HA have ignored Seniora and insulted him because he is weak (and visionless). He's weak, he can't or won't act, catch 22...
ghadab
whatever argument you may have this gvt will not let go without force unless it is chnage from parliament. full stop.
you speak about democracy? was this summer war democratic? how? who was consulted? please do respect the intelligence of people at least before you type your garbage.
Al Ghaddab,
1) Yes. The argument does apply to March 14 too. I am aware that a lot of them pledge their loyalties to leaders based entirely on sectarian and personal affiliation (rather than a cause or platform). And i stand by my argument: As long as the mentality is that way across the board, we do not have democracy.
2) Yes. A vote of no confidence. That is conducted in parliament. Siniora said that parliament is the only way to take down the government. And that is the law. You are agreeing with him on this one. What do mass protests have to do with any of this? You guys can go ahead and bring a vote of no confidence to the parliament if you like. And if you have the majority in parliament, on that vote, then by all means, let the government go. That's democracy. Threatening to remove the government by any means necessary (again, Nasrallah's own words) is not democracy.
3) First off how do you know your protests are "half the electorate"? There is no lawful way of counting the people who show up. That's why we have elections. That's the correct way to count the electorate and what they want. That system is not perfect, by any means (i'm personally partial to referendums, and direct popular vote, when it comes to big decisions), but for now, we have a set of rules in the constitution, and that's how we should go about doing things. This goes back to my comment about respect for the state and it's institutions. You can't claim to respect the state, and then turn around and ignore the rules when it suits you. Either we ALL follow the constitution. Or we don't, and we can have Somalia on our hands (no government, no laws, total anarchy). It's really that simple. You can't pick and choose which rules you want to follow and which ones you wanna ignore. Lebanese have been doing just that for decades now, which is exactly why i say that until that mentality changes, we won't ever have democracy.
4) I agree. Lebanon needs a new system altogether. But the way to achieve this goal is through constitutional means. Not through furthering the personal ambitions of Aoun, or the Syrian and Iranian agendas.
Omega80,
Your heart might be in the right place (or you might be full of it, I don't know). All the issues you bring up are valid. But I think you (I assume you're an FPM'er) are letting people manipulate you (namely Syria/Iran and your own General) to achieve their goals.
You want to talk about flip flopping? Go re-read some of Aoun's statements going back to per 1559. And then compare those statements to the stuff he started spewing after he came back to Lebanon. He talked about disarming Hezbollah (as well as other armed factions). He spoke about all sorts of things. And now he's saying the exact opposite because it suits him.
You're right, FPM'ers sacrificed a lot over the years, pre-2005. That's admirable. Those sacrifices shouldn't be allowed to go to waste today. Don't let someone's burning desire for the presidency sell your soul and that of your brothers and sisters to the devil himself. Hold your leaders accountable, including Aoun. Hold him accountable to all the things he said, back in the 80s and 90s. Hold him accountable for his flip-flopping.
We all want a sovereign Lebanon.
But you have to ask yourself. Is your loyalty to Aoun blinding you to what is really going on? Are you REALLY all of a sudden on the same principles of hezbollah now? Where on earth did that come from? Do you honestly think starting wars with Israel have Lebanon's interest at heart? Do you really think hezbollah wants to topple the government because it has a better secular platform? Or do they have an agenda? How long have you lived in Lebanon to actually fall for these lies?
THEY ALL LIE!
Al Ghaddab,
I believe there are a lot of patriots in the rank and file of both hezbollah and FPM. I believe these people are being mislead and misguided by their leaders.
I look at facts, and I use common logic to see the pattern of deception and obstructionism. I'm not making this stuff up. The facts are very plain to see:
- Hezbollah WAS ALREADY INCLUDED IN THE GOVERNMENT. So you can't tell me they just want participation. They quit the government because of the international tribunal. They've been wanting to torpedo that tribunal. They pretty much presented an ultimatum that they should be given enough ministers to have veto power. I.e. they want to CONTROL the government. Not just participate (They already had participation).
Considering they are not a majority in parliament, i don't see why they should be given over a third of government.
Aoun was offered participation in government, back in the day. he refused because he also wanted veto power. Sorry. You don't get to make those demands, General, and then claim you were not included.
Hezbollah started a war with Israel. Unprovoked. That is not democratic, for starters (The rest of Lebanon was not consulted) and certainly did not do anything to advance the cause of Lebanon anywhere. If you can't see that, I don't know how to convince you. That right there was CLEARLY foreign agendas at work.
I am not saying that protests are illegal. You can protest all you want. That's fine.
I'm choosing to look at the bigger picture here. Last year, HA walked out of government because they didn't get their way.
Then they walked out of the national dialogue when they didn't get their way.
Then they walked out of government again.
Then they walked out of the hiwar again.
Now they want to protest and overthrow the government (at any cost, according to Nasrallah). Which means if the protests don't work, he's gonna take it another step, that may be illegal.
What i'm seeing here is a pattern of obstructionism. This is the equivalent of the kid who takes the ball everytime he thinks he's losing the game and says "I'm taking my ball and going home unless you let me win." I don't see how you expect to build a solid Lebanon like that. HA and Aoun are going to continue to do this where they make demands and then walk out if those demands aren't met.
To me that's not dialogue. That's blackmail. In dialogue, you meet the other party halfway. HA and Aoun have not done that.
So i go back to the rule of the majority: When they win a majority in parliament (which would reflect the majority of the lebanese people), let them control the government, pass all the laws they want, and they dont even have to include a single march 14 minister if they don't want to. Until then, shut the fuck up and stop taking the ball away from the other players.
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