Monday, April 17, 2006

Ahmedenijad not as stupid as we think


Every time that maniac gives a speech declaring Iran's desire to "wipe Israel off the face of the Earth," he makes about a $100 million dollars a day for his country!!!

How?

Well... It just so happens that markets react to those speeches, and raise the price of crude oil by five dollars a barrel.

If I could make a hundred million dollars a day by saying something stupid, I'd be the happiest man on this planet!

I hate oil!

Please Satan! Help those stupid Americans and Europeans find an alternative to oil soon!

PLEASE!!!!

21 comments:

Vox Populi - Agent Provocateur said...

Ahmadinejad is searching for confrontation and is likely to get it. Politically, he has a lot to win from a military conflict with the US.

Vox Populi - Agent Provocateur said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Vox Populi - Agent Provocateur said...

This quote is attributed to Yamani: the stone age didn't end because of a lack of stones, and the oil age won't end because of a lack of oil.

Saudi Arabia and OPEP will do everything to keep the oil price high, but just below the threshold that will make alternative energy sources viable. But alternative technologies are developping fast and some are already competitive.

ghassan karam said...

I have not been able to see any meaningful or even apparent correlation between the price of crude and Ahmadinejads' statements regarding Israel. But even if the markets did take these statemnts into consideration the price per barrel seldom moves by a $1, usually price changes are measured in a fraction of a dollar. Keeping that in mind and knowing that Iran produces only 3-3.5 million barrels per day then even if the Israel related statements affect the price of oil the windfall is under a $1 million per day.

Vox, your observation about the price being just high enough to discourage the adoption of an alternative is at the heart of the Saudi Arabia policy because they have enough oil in the ground for a few hundred years. Keep in mind though that even if an alternative is developed say at $55 per barrel then the Saudis will be more than glad to lower their prices to $45.00 since they can still lift oil at less than $3 per barrel and since they are the least cost producer in the world. This ,by the way, does not bode well for the clean alternatives.

Anonymous said...

mr. karam,

what makes you so sure that the Saudis have so much oil left to tap?

i'd love to see some reputable sources that deflate Peak Oil experts' claims that peak has already been reached.

sincerely,

jds

Raja said...

Ghassan,

next time I write a post concerning numbers I'll make sure to consult you first! Please send me your e-mail address! ;)

Anyways, my point in this post was to exaggerate a correlation between escalation of political tensions and a rise in oil prices.

$1 million a day is still a considerable amount of money! Multiply that by 10 (since oil prices have gone up from $60 to $70 in a matter of months) and you have an increase of $10 million a day!!!

Come to think of it... I am not surprized that Khatami was so timid and open to dialogue! He presided over Iran when Oil prices were between $15 to $20 per barrel!

ghassan karam said...

JDS,
There is something in your post that is not clear to me. You seem to question the Saudi reserves but at the same time you question peak oil , which also queations Saudi reserves.
The fact of the matter is that it is accepted by all sides that OPEC as a group has about 67% of global reserves of oil and that Saudi Arabia has about 26% of global reserves. A common source for the above estimates is one of the most credible mainstream organizations in the field, US Geological Survey.

Jamal said...

raja- Don't hate oil too much, at these prices it might become feasible for us to dig up our own oil reserves. I've read that lebanon can make $3 billion/year off our modest reserves, and prices have gone up since this article was published last year.

JoseyWales said...

I've read that lebanon can make $3 billion/year..

No Jamal, Lebanon will make nothing or perhaps get more pollution.

On the other hand Berri, Joumblatt, Frangieh etc.. will be very happy.

PS How's Rana Koleilate these days? Is it one plane per year out of Brazil? Where's the friggin press?

ghassan Karam said...

Jamal,
As an Environmentalist ,and a Deep Ecologist for that matter, I am naturally opposed to the use of fossil fuels. Having said that, however, I must immediately add that the state of the Lebanese economy would be in a far worse shape had it not been for oil. It is trus that Lebanon does not produce any oil but it is a major beneficiary of the rich oil endowment in its neighbourhood. Tens of thousands of Lebanese labourers and professionals in the Arab OPEC countries owe their livelyhood to oil, most of the Arab foreign investment in Lebanon is oil related and so is the major portion of the tourist trade. BTW, do not also forget that a large proportion of Lebanese fortunes , such as the Harriri, have been made in Arab oil producing countries. My point is simply that Lebanon is an economy whose fortunes are tied directly to the price of oil. To be a beneficiary of the high prices of oil, a coutry needs not be an oil producer, it is enough to be in the right neighborhood and offer the appropriate human capital.

The only potentially good thing about an oil discovery in Lebanon is the fact that it might generate sufficient revenues to pay down the national debt!!!

Bashir said...

According to the "Taef Agreement", which "Taefeh" should control the off-shore reserves of oil discovered in Lebanon?
This is a $3 billion question!

frencheagle said...

"The only potentially good thing about an oil discovery in Lebanon is the fact that it might generate sufficient revenues to pay down the national debt!!!"

the time the first baril will be full, it ll be too late.

lebanon has a serious rick of bankruptcy in 2007 with 5 billions of USD to rembourse

Anonymous said...

Please Satan,
help this blogger find an alternative to the Americans and Europeans soon...
Cynic

Abdulkader MELHEM said...

http://www.14march.org/news_details.php?newsid=1060

pleache check this and tell me how RIDICULOUS! oh god! One day they say "no he is not in need for presidency", and the next day it's either him or nobody. Look how he contradicts himself just in the same paragraph. Damn..yeah we want such person as president! WOW! AMAZING! He should "yetawa3" back to the army...or maybe they won't accept him there also.hehe.RIDICULOUS I dont know how people are following him!
Please read and tell me your opinion guys

Doha said...

Abdul,

Aoun already knows that his chances of becoming the next President are very slim; that's why he's saying all that.

It's unfortunate that FPM is represented by only one person who is cozying up to Syria and Iran, contrary to what FPMers see as right.

Aboudy M. said...

http://www.elaph.com/ElaphWeb/Politics/2006/4/142906.htm

haha please check what Saad Alhariri office replied back. With all respect and honestly each word was a killer to the 71 year old jaggal. HEHE.
luv u baby

Aboudy M. said...

رد العماد ميشال عون على بيان تيار المستقبل في حديث لإذاعة صوت الغد:
س: رد تيار المستقبل على حديثك أمس لقناة ال ANB، بما يوحي أنه لم يستمع إلى الحديث، ولم يُجب عن أي من المواضيع التي طرحتها سياسياً، اقتصادياً أو إجتماعياً، بل إعتمد في الرد على مقولة ضربني وبكى سبقني واشتكى، فما هو تعليقك؟
ج: أعتقد أن مجمل الحديث الذي ردوا به خارج عن آداب الكلام. لذلك لن يكون عندي عناء الرد عليهم، وأكيد أن الجمهور الذي سيسمع حديثهم سيتذكر الشيخ سعيد تقي الدين، رحمه الله، عندما تكلم عن نوع من النساء.

Alllaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaah...allaaaaah...the thing is he got nothing to say. And this is from tayyar.org from Sawtelghad news. Look at how they asked the question. He forgot all the characteristics he used agains Sheikh Sa'ad..Hehe..I think he is getting a bit too old for presidency. 71 years old? come on i guess he should go to "dar el 3agazeh" ;)

Doha said...

aboudy, listen, the funniest part of the elaph article is actually the readers' comments. Scary stuff!

3abaaaad said...

oh listen go to lfpm website...i wrote a comment i think they deserve it...i doubt they will publish it because its very honest...where it says Comment (0) go in and u'll see "FUTURE" hehe ;) enjoy

why-discuss said...

Ahmadinejad is saying exactly what every arab thinks and does not dare say.. He confronts the US and its allies and he is doing that in total legality. Why the hell, nuclear energy must be reserved to western and non-arab countries Pakistan, India, Israel who have not even sign the non proliferation treaty?
I think Ahmadinejad is trying to rectify that and like the North Korea fiasco, the western countries wil have to accept that. They have no leverage what so ever anymore, despite the ridiculous threats of Condoleeza Rice..

JoseyWales said...

why-discuss

why? Just because it's your uninformed opinion? Does not work that way.

To begin with and keep it short: nukes are NOT legal for Iran. They signed the NP treaty (Pak, India, and Israel did not).

If they want nukes, step one is pulling out of the treaty.