Security Council Resolution Agreed Upon

Finally. France and the US have agreed to the details of a Security Council Resolution to end the current violence between Hizballah and Israel. The Council will meet today to discuss the resolution. The vote will take place on Teusday.

What I know thus far: It calls for a cessassion of hostilities, and gives Israel the right to retaliate if Hizballah attacks.

Something else I know: We are going to witness a major escalation before the Security Council votes on the resolution this Teusday.

Q: Is there a difference between "cease fire" and "cessassion of hostilities?" Or is it just semantics?

A: Apparently, it is not merely semantics. A cessassion of hostilities constitutes a first step in working towards a cease fire. It effectively calls for an end to violence without the official declaration of a cease fire.

Hizballah Responds: Hizballah official just declared (11:39 EST) that the organization will continue fighting as long as Israeli troops remain on Lebanese soil.

Vigil in Washington DC

The Lebanese American Community of the Washington Metropolitan Area

In association with

Arab American Associations and Human Rights Activists

Is organizing a

Silent Vigil
In Protest of the Invasion of Lebanon and
In commemoration of the Qana Massacre …one week after

Date: Sunday August 6^th

Time: 8:00– 10:00 pm

Location: We will meet in Farragut Square Park at K Street and Connecticut Ave, NW – across the street from Farragut North Metro Station. Then at sunset, we will walk as a group to the White House with lighted candles where the vigil will end at 10 PM.

The purpose of the Vigil is:

• To demand an immediate cease fire in Lebanon
• To mourn and express outrage at the loss of innocent civilian lives in Lebanon
• To condemn the internal displacement of one third of the population of Lebanon
• To deplore the systematic destruction of the country

What you can do:

• Please come in large numbers; women, men and children
• Spread the word!
• Bring American and Lebanese flags
• Wear black or white

Bring candles with you (bring drip guards or votives on a plate or tray to catch the wax)

Bridges Close To Home Destroyed

Woke up to hear devestating news. Israeli warplanes shattered bridges linking the north with Beirut.

Fidar Bridge in Jbeil (Byblos)
The Casino Bridge and Ghazir Bridge in Jounieh-Maameltein
Madfoun Bridge in Batroun

Five people died and many are wounded. A 23-year old guy, whom my family knows, died as he was driving back home from his work in Beirut.

As a result of the shelling, empty fields in Adma burned. Of course, that's only a fraction of the shelling that's going on around in the country.

I called home. There is fear to travel long distances now. And when civilians rush to the banks for money, they're not allowed to retrieve dollars, just liras. You can't even retrieve 1,000 dollars now.

Everyday brings in something new, yet another twist to the bloody plot. And the question in my head is why are the Israeli warplanes going to "non-combat" areas? Why are they further isolating the Lebanese from each other and from the outside world? The Lebanese people do not deserve all that, they don't.

"Nobody knows how many rebellions, besides political rebellions, ferment in the masses of life which people earth."

Back to the good ol' days

Ohhhh I am so thrilled!

Apparently, the Europeans have been talking to Syria all along! Our "brothers" in Damascus watch Lebanon burn and drool like an animal infected with rabies! All they see is an opportunity to return back to Lebanese soil and impose their suffocating rule.

AFP reports that Spanish Foreign Minister Miguel Angel Moratinos said, after a meeting with Assad and his clique that

"The Syrian authorities are going to exercise all their influence over Hezbollah and over the various actors" in the conflict...

However, he told reporters, Syrian leaders want a "change in the circumstances and the political-military context in which Lebanon lives."

"Syria wants to be part of the solution. Syria doesn't want to be part of the problem."

So, Syria wants to "be part of the solution," eh? And it wants "a change in the circumstances and the political-military context in which Lebanon lives," as well.

Yay for Lebanon! We're all going back to good al' days of Assad posters in Beirut's streets, nobody saying anything bad about anybody Syrian, and losing control of our fates. Yay!!!

Let me start practicing: "I love Syria" ... "I love Bashar" ... "I love Hafez" ... "I love Bassel" ...

Thank you International Community. Thank you Israel. Thank you Nasrallah. Thank you all.

Where are we going?

The Israelis say that they need a couple of weeks to wrap up their operations. Once they're done, they'll leave a destroyed Lebanon behind them, over a thousand individuals who no longer live among us on this planet, a Hizaballah that is weaker militarily but politically untouchable!

Sometimes I wonder how stupid people in leadership positions can be - and how obsessed over certain issues they become. For Israelis today, the obsession is: we cannot leave without a "decisive victory" over Hizballah. "Whatever the cost, we NEED a decisive victory." We need it because we don’t want “the savages” to perceive us as wimps. Does it not occur to these people that the cost of teaching “the savages” a lesson may actually outweigh the benefits???

Yesterday, according to the Washington Post, Lebanese Acting Foreign Minister Tarek Mitri said that he doubts his government would agree to invite a European-led intervention force into southern Lebanon, citing fierce opposition from Hezbollah and its key foreign backers, Syria and Iran. Mitri also said that “no solution” to the current violence in Lebanon can be found without the participation of Syria and Iran in the search for a political settlement.

Does that man sound like he is in a politically strong position? Does he sound like he has the upper hand in his battle to stamp out Syrian and Iranian influence inside of Lebanon?

You tell me!

So what did the Israelis accomplish over the last two weeks? 1) They killed around a thousand Lebanese, 2) they flattened entire neighborhoods, villages and towns resulting in over 750,000 displaced people 3) they crippled Lebanon's infrastructure - taking the country back to the damn stone age, 4) and last but not least, they destroyed the first and only proudly secular, liberal political and social movement in the entire Middle East. A movement that effectively stood up to fundamentalists, and at the very least, looked them eye-to-eye and contained them.

I am very aware that Israelis visit this site. So my message to those visitors is that you not only destroyed the dreams of an entire generation of Lebanese (i.e. my own, and probably my children's). But, you guys and your government just shot yourselves in the foot! And I don't mean merely with one shot. No! I mean, you guys got an M-16 rifle, put it on full automatic and shot both your feet to smithereens.

Your reckless “shock-and-awe” military campaign ultimately turned a political-military organization that you hate into the Arab World’s hero; and in doing so, you have only increased the influence of your arch-nemesis, Iran. Ultimately, the biggest losers are the Lebanese people, and the hope they manifested in a region characterized overwhelmingly by hopelessness and depression.

Whoohooo! Great Job Folks!

In Walid Jumblatt's Words

The Financial Times ran a story today about Lebanon based on an interview they conducted with Walid Jumblatt, one of the more prominent leaders of Lebanon's Cedar Revolution. I'd like to thank Lebanonwire for bringing the story to my attention.

Here is a selection of what I thought to be the most important sections of a very bleak outlook for Lebanon's future:

...the conflict between Israel and Hizbollah guerrillas had dealt a fatal blow to Lebanese hopes of a strong independent state, free of Iranian and Syrian influence.

[Walid Jumblatt] accused [Hizballah] of working to an Iranian and Syrian timetable when it kidnapped two Israeli soldiers on July 12, triggering a devastating Israeli retaliation.

But he said that like many Lebanese he had to support the Shia movement in its resistance against “brutal Israeli aggression”....

“After the 12 July, Lebanon is now unfortunately being entrenched solidly into the Syrian-Iranian axis,” he said. “The hopes of a stable, prosperous Lebanon where we could attract investments is over for now. It is a fatal blow for confidence.”

...

Last year [Jumblatt] emerged as one of the Syrian regime’s fiercest opponents in an alliance of groups that came together following the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri and led a coalition government following the elections.

At that time, [he] held out hope that a new wave of democratic activism was sweeping the Arab world.

But on Tuesday he offered a bleak and outspoken assessment of the prospects for Lebanon.

He said among Syrian-backed politicians there was already talk of forming an emergency government to replace Prime Minister Fouad Siniora’s coalition. He said he feared that an “organised mob” might be used to force the government’s resignation.

There was also little prospect that Hizbollah, having emerged as a champion in the Arab and Muslim world, would be willing now to incorporate its armed wing under the Lebanese state apparatus....

...

“We will be just a weak state next to a very strong militia. Our government will be like the government of Abu Mazen (Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas) next to Hamas or maybe worse like the government of [Nouri al] Maliki in Iraq.”

“All American policy in the Middle East is at stake,” he continued, “because their failure in Palestine, their failure in Iraq and now this failure in Lebanon will lead to a new Arab world where the so called radical Arabs will profit.

“This is the new Middle East. Not the new Middle East of Ms [US secretary of state Condoleezza] Rice. Darkness everywhere.”

A forgotten anniversary

Today, Lebanon was supposed to celebrate Army Day - the anniversary of the establishment of the Lebanese Armed Forces.

The Army's main battle tanks are M 48 Pattons and Russian T-54/55s. These antiques date back to the 1950s. The M113 armored personnel carrier is by far the Army's most visible vehicle. Most of these machines belong to the first generation of M113s: some are even said to have been used during the Vietnam War.

As for air "power," well, you tell me exactly what twenty something UH-1 Hueys constitute, and I'll make sure to post that on this entry. I must say though, listening to those relics fly overhead is quite an ordeal. The Hueys' main base of operations is the Beirut International Airport; therefore, whenever the guys decided they had enough fuel to fly some sorties, all of Beirut was sure to know.

Today's Lebanese Army is very much a product of the Syrian occupation, which only came to an end less than two years ago. The Syrians basically built an army that could be characterized as a police force on steroids. All it did, and could do, was maintain internal stability.

Whenever political tensions were high, or if there was, for some reason, a spike in criminal activity, the Army would flex its muscles by increasing patrols, deploying some of its hardware so that they were visible to the public, and add one more hurdle to the myriad of hurdles drivers faced on Lebanon's roads and highways: checkpoints.

As for protecting Lebanon's sovereignty, whoever heard of such a notion? Since Hizballah monopolized the front with Israel, and it was "simply impossible" for any threats to emerge from Syria, the Lebanese Armed Forces' otherwise natural role of protecting Lebanon from outside threats was simply usurped. If the American Army was never in the business of "nation building," the Lebanese Army was never in the business of defending Lebanon.

I hope that in the new Lebanon that eventually emerges this reality changes. The Bush administration just promised $10 million to help the army deploy to the South after a cessation of hostilities. That money would definitely help, however the issue at hand surpasses merely deploying forces in the South – it is one of capability. Will the Lebanese Army be able to fulfill its role of protecting the Lebanese state from all threats to its sovereignty? I doubt it; and $10 million does not even come close to changing that reality.

Lost

I wonder what Lebanon and the region will look like after this protracted calamity is over. How long will the IDF generals need, and how much destruction will they sow, in order to "save face?" It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out who the real winner of this conflict is thus far.

On the ground Hizballah has repelled Israeli incursions. On the airwaves, they're winning the propaganda war - in Lebanon, the Arab world and almost everywhere else on this planet. At this point in time, I truly believe that Israel lies in an intractable bind: whatever it does, Hizballah will win.

If Israel cannot even claim some sort of victory on the ground (however vague such a victory may be), the IDF will suffer utter humiliation, and thus have to deal with the short and long term consequences of such a defeat. If, on the other hand, Israel continues its offensive in search of that elusive victory, Hizballah's stature will only grow in prominence both in Lebanon and the entire region.

The fact the generals simply can't swallow is that it really does not matter how much of Hizballah's military capability they eliminate. As long as Hizballah retains its legitimacy, it will merely regroup and probably grow even stronger with time. And all it takes to reinforce that legitimacy is a massacre such as the one that transpired in Qana yesterday. As I wrote earlier in this entry, the military outcome of this war no longer matters: Hizballah has won - it is not going anywhere, and its losses are merely temporary.

The exit strategy now rests on diplomatic efforts to find some sort of "comprehensive solution" that includes the Shebaa farms, prisoner exchanges, deployment of a joint UN-Lebanese Army force in the South of Lebanon, etc.... Unfortunately, it appears that the Israelis do not want to exit at this point in time. Moreover, who knows if Hizballah will even play along.

Again, I go back to the question I asked at the beginning of this entry: how will Lebanon and its environment look like when all this destruction comes to an end? Will a cease fire be reached in two days, two weeks, two months, or (god forbid) two years? I guess we'll have to ask the Israeli generals since the ball appears to be in their court.

An Exodus of Dreams

Yet another massacre in Qana. 57 dead among them 27 children...and counting.

And if this is the story in the south, then the rest of Lebanon has many shattered dreams to gather and rebuild.

Many bygone and shattered dreams. This is what war does. Israel's war on Lebanon has impacted all of Lebanon and all of the Lebanese.

As there are fighters facing up to the Israeli war machine, there are also youth issuing their passports to head out, head out to the unknown, to save the day.

I'll recount some stories, close to home:

Ahmad was getting ready to enter college. He just finished high school. He helps in his family's business: a fashion retail store. His parents brought in a large shipment this summer; it was forecasted to be a busy summer indeed and their business was doing great. Until the war started and the country was blockaded by Israeli warships and the country isolated.

Ahmad had to do something, to help his parents pay back for the shipment purchased. He's leaving for the first time to the UAE to work at a restaurant. He needs to send the money back to his parents to save them from dire consequences.

Ahmad is leaving, when his parents never wished him to leave and could die if he does. No college for now, the dreams are postponed, put on hold.

Farah is married to someone who works in the cell phone industry. Since the cell phone transmittors were severely hit by Israeli warplanes last week, her husband is almost out of his job. No substantial income for now. Her husband renewed her passport and issued one for his baby son. She's leaving for a month to be with her family in a neighboring country, to reduce the pressure off of her husband and until he figures out a strategy to come back strong.

Abu Hassan, a grandfather, who is staying back in Lebanon, though all of his children live abroad. He's comforted by being close to where he buried his wife whom he loved and loves dearly. Now his children are calling him everyday so he could leave the country. The blockade will lead to medicine shortages and he needs his medicines on a daily basis. He's resisting, saying that it's all fine and things will get better, but his children do not want to lose yet another parent. And despite him carrying an American passport, he still did not agree to taking the ferry boat to Cyprus. But now his son is organizing his exit. I can understand his reluctance to leave; leaving behind memories and the house he raised his children in.

Abdallah lives abroad, has lived abroad for 30 years. After the Cedar Revolution he had hope for his country, a chance to retire in Lebanon, in a country that after the exit of the Syrian influence had hope of flourishing at last. He stopped reading the newspapers when the national dialogue dragged and completely stopped watching TV after the war on Lebanon.

In 1996 when Lebanon was flourishing and rebuilding itself, he returned with his family for a chance of taking part in his country's renewal. He left after 10 months, after Israel's Grapes of Wrath war on Lebanon and the Qana massacre. All the potential investors he was courting took their money out. He returned to where he came from, shattered dreams and a destiny to be always away. Perhaps this hope has been demolished completely now. He has asked his daughter to speed his immigration papers to the U.S.

These are some stories, not the universe of stories, but they are real stories.

The Lebanese are tired of war. My brother told me today that the Lebanese are not willing anymore to pay LL5,000 per a gallon of gas in the name of resistance. The northeners might not be fighting amongst their southern nationals, but they're housing the displaced and paying the electricity and water bills for the southerners. And this is not just something new.

All of Lebanon pays the price for war. Israel will not achieve much through its agression. Military solutions are old and tired solutions. They take away lives, shatter the dreams and make out of civilized people aggressors.

If PM Seniora does not quickly and swiftly move forward with blanketing the country with state sovereignty, then Lebanon will head to civil war and the exodus of dreams will continue.

"Nobody knows how many rebellions, besides political rebellions, ferment in the masses of life which people earth."

A Show Of Unity: Be There!

The event has been cancelled. We will let you know when it will be rescheduled.

************************************************************

Humanitarian Appeal for Lebanon
A Gathering For Unity & Support

You are Cordially invited to attend an open house to show unity
and solidarity and to support the humanitarian relief efforts for
Lebanon in this national crisis

on Monday July 31,2006

from 5:00 until 8:00 p.m.

Residence of the Embassy of Lebanon
2841 McGill Terrace N.W.
Washington, DC 20008

This Event is in Coordination with:
(in alphabetical order)

Al Hewar Center
Antiochian Orthodox Christian Archdiocese of North America
American Arab Anti-Discrimination Committee (ADC)
American Druze Society / Charitable Affairs
American Foundation for St. George Hospital Inc.
American Task Force for Lebanon (ATFL)
AUB Alumni Association of North America - Greater Washington Chapter
Arab American Institute (AAI)
Council on American-Islamic Relations
International Orthodox Christian Charities
Lebanese Free Patriotic Movement
National US Arab Chamber of Commerce

Read more...

"Nobody knows how many rebellions, besides political rebellions, ferment in the masses of life which people earth."

A message to all Lebanese fans of Italian soccer

This e-mail was sent to me by a dear friend who remains in Lebanon. It brought a smile to my face.

Keeping the spirit high -

In 1982, Italy won the world cup and Israel
invaded Lebanon

In 2006, Italy won the world cup and Israel
invaded Lebanon

Message to all Lebanese people:

Next time Italy wins the world cup, we all
go immediately down to the shelters!!

Very telling animation

I got an e-mail yesterday night with the following link. Check it out.

And before the launch of this war...

All death seekers, war mongers, self-righteous bigots, bringers of distruction and chaos, LEAVE LEBANON ALONE!

The worst case scenario

Lebanon, the sacrificial lamb. I think that should be our national motto. Anyways, Edward N Luttwak, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic International Studies, wrote an Op Ed piece for the Wall Street Journal that called for a return of Syria to Lebanon. After articulating what he saw as unfeasible solutions to the crisis in Lebanon, he presented what he perceives as the most feasible way out of this crisis. "Enjoy":

...there is the horrible-to-contemplate but irresistibly seductive diplomatic option: to invite the Syrians to disarm Hezbollah and persuade it to follow the political path. Hezbollah already has two ministers in the Lebanese cabinet and might claim more.

Naturally that would imply the recognition of Syrian suzerainty over Lebanon, and of course the thoroughly unworthy Bashar Assad would have to be treated as a leader of regional importance. Only that could tempt Mr. Assad to abandon his alliance with Iran -- along with the important rewards that would come his way more or less spontaneously. These rewards would include gifts from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait, all three of which now fear Iran as the most dangerous threat they face; they would also include the approval -- or at least the diminished hostility -- of Syria's Sunni majority, which vehemently dislikes the alliance with Shiite Iran, especially now that the Iranians are supporting Iraq's Shiites in their bloody fight with the Sunnis.

For France, the U.S. and the U.K., it would, of course, be tremendously embarrassing to recognize that they made a gigantic error in expelling Syria without having put anything its place, thus leaving a vacuum of power in Lebanon that Hezbollah has exploited. (A new principle of statecraft thus emerges: It is a mistake to follow the French even when they are right.) But unlike the military option, which is simply impossible, the diplomatic option is merely humiliating. Having massacred their own Islamists very efficiently, the Syrians can do the job again, if sufficiently rewarded.

Ahmedenijad chimes in

Ahmedenijad's most recent statement:

"The storm is approaching the Middle East, and whomever plants the wind sows the storm"

So what is this supposed mean? Is Iran starting to feel the heat? Are we really heading towards a regional conflict?

Iran's two most important strategic allies in the Middle East are Syria and Hizballah. Hizballah is under attack from the Israeli military, and Syria is being coopted by Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan.

As all these developments gradually transpire, Lebanon burns, and Lebanese die. We are the cannon fodder of the big players. We die as they play their chess game.

Invictus-Updated

I got this from a good friend:

Invictus, by William Ernest Henley (1849-1903)

Out of the night that covers me,
Black as the Pit from pole to pole,
I thank whatever gods may be
For my unconquerable soul.

In the fell clutch of circumstance
I have not winced nor cried aloud.
Under the bludgeonings of chance
My head is bloody, but unbowed.

Beyond this place of wrath and tears
Looms but the horror of the shade,
And yet the menace of the years
Finds, and shall find me, unafraid.

It matters not how strait the gate,
How charged with punishments the scroll,
I am the master of my fate;
I am the captain of my soul.

Update: To those who claim the current aggression on Lebanon is an Israel-Hezbollah conflict, this may have been true before the first Lebanese civilians of this aggression were killed. The first charred baby was in everyone’s minds long before the first rockets fell inside Israeli territory. I posted this poem in solidarity with the Lebanese people's persistence against the Israeli army's crimes. To use language you understand: Lebanon will prevail.

If anyone can help, please do...

I just got this e-mail. If you know how you may help this person, please do.

I am an American writing from Washington, DC. A friend of my wife's is currently a graduate student at George Washington University. He is Lebanese and his entire family is presently in southern Lebanon. He has not been able to get in contact with them recently and is obviously worried about them, especially as their village was bombed today. Do you have any advice for how he may find out the names of any casualities (either wounded and killed)? Any help you provide would be greatly appreciated.

Thank you,

David

P.S. Please feel free to forward to anyone who might have some ideas. Thank you.

Rice in Beirut

Condi Rice is in Beirut, and has met with the Lebanese Prime Minister Seniora and is currently meeting with the March 14 leadership (the leadership that pushed for the Cedar Revolution last year).

Her most noted meeting was with the Speaker of Lebanon's Parliament, and head of the Amal Movement, Nabih Berri. Some time over the last week, Berri also declared himself as the intermediary of Hizballah with the International Community. The meeting with Rice lasted for 55 minutes, and according to reports, the two were not able to arrive at an agreement.

• Rice demanded a cease fire, the withdrawal of Hizballah from land South of the Litani, the deployment of the Lebanese Army along with a beefed up UNIFIL contingent in a new Buffer Zone, and the release of the kidnapped Israeli soldiers.
  
  
• Berri's position was a demand for an immediate cease fire and the launch of negotiations for an exchange of prisoners, as a first step to diffusing the conflict. He then said that disarming Hizballah, and deploying the Lebanese Army to the South would constitute a second, strictly Lebanese phase, that would play out in the National Dialogue Round Table.

Both sides of the conflict appear determined to stick to their positions. Neither really cares about the repercussions of the conflict on Lebanon's territories and its civilian population. Meanwhile the Saudis and Egyptians are supposed to be pressuring Syria to break away from the Iran-Syria-Hizballah-Hamas axis. I wonder whether and how they will succeed. What price will Syrian President Assad ask for abandoning the powers that he pretty much owes his life and regime to?

Some analysts and commentators are starting to claim that this conflict will last for months, as opposed to weeks. What makes it more complicated are the military-political dimensions intertwined in this conflict. Hizballah and Israel are trying to score points on the battlefield to increase their leverage on the negotiating table, while Iran seeks to enter the negotiating table as a "peace" broker, trying to claim a slice of the "war/peace" pie in this Arab Israeli conflict.

Moreover, the complication is further augmented by the demands of some powers to get at a "comprehensive" solution to the problem at hand. Does that mean that Lebanon's problem will be lumped with that of Gaza, or the whole Palestinian question? If that's the case, then the war will continue on for light years!

Rice and Berri at least agree that brokering a solution right now is about Lebanon. And that's a starting point. Let's see how things unfold from here.

Back in the States - leaving behind broken lives

I am finally back in the United States. After spending ten days in Syria, helping my family cope with the loss of their lives in Lebanon, I am back to my own life over here.
.
Both my brother and sister had to leave loved ones behind, who sought the safety and comfort of their families. My brother is now on his way to London; his long-time girlfriend to Australia. My sister is on her way to Dubai; her long-time boyfriend is staying behind in Lebanon to salvage what remains of his business. Both their sets of friends are dispersing all over the world. The networks of relationships that were such a crucial part of their lives are now broken. They have to start their lives from scratch.
.
Despite all this, our family ranks among the lucky few. Yet even the "lucky" among us now have to deal with disrupted lives, in all senses of the phrase: broken relationships; shattered livelihoods; failed investments and much, much more. All we have left is hope: hope that we will be able to rebuild what has been destroyed, and hope that the situation will not deteriorate any further.
.
A couple of days before the doors of hell opened in Lebanon, I visited a pub that a high school friend of mine had just launched in the Jemayze neighborhood of Beirut. He had worked an entire year to line up partners, get the permits, renovate the building, and actually build the pub from the ground up. All his work summed up to naught. For even if the war were to come to a close tomorrow, he would not be able to operate because his clientele no longer exists. They boarded those ships, and paid between five hundred to a thousand dollars for rides to Damascus, where they boarded planes and flew to whatever part of the globe they could get to. I wonder how he is doing.
.
I want this war to end now. The last thing I want, however, is a return to the status quo ante so that we face another wave of destruction five, ten, or fifteen years down the road. And in all honesty, I simply don’t want to give Israeli generals another reason to flex their destructive muscles at our dire expense.
.
Lebanon will never recover from this brutal blow unless Lebanese are assured that such a calamity will not befall them again. The worst outcome - the absolute worst outcome - would be if all this destruction and death comes to naught, and a real political change for the better does not materialize in Lebanon and the region.

Iraqizing Lebanon

As more Lebanese leave the country after the Israeli aggression on Lebanon intensified, we're starting to hear more and more stories from the "inside".

One person who is out of the country now told me that following the shelling that northern Lebanon (mainly Akkar and Tripoli) sustained, groups of religious Sunnis got out their guns from their basements and were getting ready to head south to fight the Israeli Army. The Lebanese Army's Intelligence Force stopped these groups at the last minute.

I did warn in one of my previous posts that "Israel has opened a can of worms (when it bombed the north and killed some 9 soldiers); many parts of Akkar are very conservative Sunni. Why is the IDF messing with a sleeping beast????!!!! Why?"

Moreover, a number of trucks filled with ammunition was sent from Syria by Rafaat Assad's son (President Assad's first cousin) to Jabal Mihsin, a dominantly Alawite area in Tripoli. Again, the Military Intelligence managed to intercept the shipment.

Unfortunately, the Lebanese Army is being targeted by the Israeli Forces, further weakening a Lebanese state institution that is tirelessly trying to put a cap on a boiling pot, which is ready to explode at any minute.

Abu Kais from Beirut to the Beltway wrote that an advisor to the Israeli Defense Minister said that the Sunni Muslim world expects the Israeli Army to fight Shiite fundamentalism and "we are going to deliver." Little does he know that the Israeli offensive on Lebanon might just make of Lebanon another Iraq.

Addendum: Read what Chercheuse D'Or has to say to Israel.

"Nobody knows how many rebellions, besides political rebellions, ferment in the masses of life which people earth."