Tuesday, July 25, 2006

The worst case scenario

Lebanon, the sacrificial lamb. I think that should be our national motto. Anyways, Edward N Luttwak, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic International Studies, wrote an Op Ed piece for the Wall Street Journal that called for a return of Syria to Lebanon. After articulating what he saw as unfeasible solutions to the crisis in Lebanon, he presented what he perceives as the most feasible way out of this crisis. "Enjoy":

...there is the horrible-to-contemplate but irresistibly seductive diplomatic option: to invite the Syrians to disarm Hezbollah and persuade it to follow the political path. Hezbollah already has two ministers in the Lebanese cabinet and might claim more.

Naturally that would imply the recognition of Syrian suzerainty over Lebanon, and of course the thoroughly unworthy Bashar Assad would have to be treated as a leader of regional importance. Only that could tempt Mr. Assad to abandon his alliance with Iran -- along with the important rewards that would come his way more or less spontaneously. These rewards would include gifts from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait, all three of which now fear Iran as the most dangerous threat they face; they would also include the approval -- or at least the diminished hostility -- of Syria's Sunni majority, which vehemently dislikes the alliance with Shiite Iran, especially now that the Iranians are supporting Iraq's Shiites in their bloody fight with the Sunnis.

For France, the U.S. and the U.K., it would, of course, be tremendously embarrassing to recognize that they made a gigantic error in expelling Syria without having put anything its place, thus leaving a vacuum of power in Lebanon that Hezbollah has exploited. (A new principle of statecraft thus emerges: It is a mistake to follow the French even when they are right.) But unlike the military option, which is simply impossible, the diplomatic option is merely humiliating. Having massacred their own Islamists very efficiently, the Syrians can do the job again, if sufficiently rewarded.


Lebanese Pride said...

HAHAHA...Syria and the pro syrian rats can keep DREAMING that the syrians are comng back to Lebanon. it's a dream that will NEVER happen. Syria is trying and will keep trying to get back into Lebanon after it was HUMILIATED and ran off with there tails between there legs after the world and lebanese told them to get out.

It's funny how the dumb syrians (yes, all syrians are dirty, worthless people)think and dream that they will be back, lol!
i would rather have Israelis in LEBANON then any syrian rat!

anyways, there is nothing wrong with dreaming, but they need to FINALLY realize and get through the filthy skin that we are not "sister" countries, we HATE them and there people and especially there leader bashar the jackass!


Dimitry said...

Having massacred their own Islamists very efficiently, the Syrians can do the job again, if sufficiently rewarded.

Dude. Syria did that by killing sorrounding a city with artillery, and pounding the crap out of it couple of days. Civilian casualties were in the tens of thousands. This guy is certainlypractical, but as far as solutions go, I think the current problems are preferable.

FGA said...

Obviously, Syria will not be re-entering Lebanon anytime soon. What bothers me, however, is that Bashar is clearly the biggest beneficiary of the current events. Who among us has the motivation to re-open the Hariri assassination file now. By plunging us back into this chaos, we have been robbed of any chance to cleanse our political system and punish the criminals who walk amongst us. So sad..


Bad Vilbel said...

Let me the first (ok, 4th, i guess) to say that this is one of the worst ideas ever.

I would suggest Mr. Luttwak stick to writing about partisan politics in the US and stay out of the business of inviting one sovereign country back into another.

And on a less "irritable" note: If anyone really thinks having the Syrians back in would actually end the Hezbollah problem, they are sadly sadly mistaken.

Anonymous said...

Wrong. A period of turbulence is actually the best time to clean the system out; the Hariri file will never be closed as long as certain people remain in the government. Thinking that a faux but well-intentioned "stability" would fix Lebanon's problems is but fantasy; rather, trying to protect the remnants of this fantasy is what got you guys here in the first place.

Jaeger said...

While I'd hate to see the Syrians come back the article underlines a fundamental truth. If Lebanon cannot responsibly govern itself it will ultimately be governed by someone else.

Bad Vilbel said...


If other countries would leave us in peace, Lebanon CAN and WILL govern itself just fine.

The problem has been that "someone else" that's constantly undermining us to show the rest of the world that we can't govern ourselves. Take them out of the equation and I guarantee you we'll govern ourselves just fine.

Poul said...

>>If other countries would leave us in peace, Lebanon CAN and WILL govern itself just fine.

not really - other countries left lebanon alone for a year, yet you failed to disarm hezballah.

Amon Ra said...

Four United Nations peacekeepers have been killed in an Israeli air strike on an observation post in southern Lebanon, the UN has said.
A bomb struck the post occupied by the peacekeepers of the Unifil force in the Khiam area, it said.

UN Secretary General Kofi Annan said he was "shocked" at the "apparently deliberate targeting" of the post.


Well... i prefer not to make any comments... Just for the record...

nasbined said...

Amon that is very interesting. That looks like why Iran says storm unlike any the world has ever seen before is brewing against the Jewish people and the zionists are the ones that danced that rain dance and summoned the storm up.

Haustat1 said...

I think everyone ought to remember that Lebanon, like the criminal state of Israel, is an artificial creation of western countries. Crusader France carved Lebanon out of the loins of Syria. As much as the Israel worshippers who call themselves Lebanese would like to erase this historical fact, it will never, ever go away. I promise you that. Now, having said that, Syria is not interested in being in Lebanon to help restore peace to that country again. I think the Israel worshippers need to re-focus their attention on Lebanon's real enemies -- Israel, America and, yes, Crusader France. Let's not forget that it was France's imposition if a Crusader sectarian constitution, favoring Maronites above all others, that led to the enslavement of Lebanon's Muslims and sparked the Civil War in Lebanon. Hopefully, all Lebanese - and especially the Muslim Majority - will resolve to make sure they are never, ever, ever enslaved under Crusader rule in Lebanon again.

Amon Ra said...


I would not like to interpret Iran quotes but if you make a connection of the above statement with the follwing one ...

"The UN's Jan Egeland has condemned the devastation caused by Israeli air strikes in Beirut, saying it is a violation of humanitarian law.
Mr Egeland, the UN's emergency relief chief, described the destruction as "horrific" as he toured the city. "


... Then maybe you will be able to produce various conclusions, either valid or baseless...

There is only one fact,

The situation is absolutely out of control

nasbined said...

Israel is a violation of international law. A stolen land for a fake people. Free Lebanon, Free Palestine, Move Israel to Europe.

Bad Vilbel said...


A YEAR? ONE YEAR? That's enough?
Go tell that to President Bush, who's been in Iraq for 3 years and hasn't been able to declare success just yet.

If you really think that one year is enough to build a strong nation...heh...

Israel has been trying to "disengage" from the Palestinians for well over a year now. I guess by your "one year" standards, that's a total failure too, huh?

These things take time.

Bad Vilbel said...


Enough with the antiquated rethoric and jargon. Do you even know what "Crusader" really means or is it just a word you throw around because it makes your posts look more important than they really are?

Anonymous said...

"The situation is absolutely out of control" - amon ra

Not really - it is under the rather tight control of Israeli and allied forces at the moment. Israel controls the battle because idiotic Hezbollah cannot withstand it and cannot with all the help Syria and Iran weakly proffers. All Hezbollah can do is run, hide or be killed - thanks to their idiotic leader, Sheik Hassan Nasrallah.

War is underway because Nasrallah felt froggy, and badly miscalculated what the consequences would be - and will continue to be for some time to come.

What too many have not accepted is that the war against Islamic terrorists didn't begin with this recent retaliation by Israel. It began years ago and was not responded to until it knocked down two buildings in NY, and it will continue until the last remaining national, regional and local stronghold of Islamic terrorism is utterly destroyed. Any 'cease fire' only prolongs the ultimate outcome.

american with questions said...

I am an American who has been watching the news very carefully in the past weeks. Unfortunatly I haven't followed politics or payed much attention to history class.

I have been putting things together from CNN, Fox News, BBC news, and now the internet. I am looking for another perspective which I do not find in the news. I would like to write a list of things that I have heard, learned, or assumed about what is going on and get further insight from people from Lebanon or Lebanese-Americans.

1) Hezbollah is a terrorist organization which was started by Iran and/or Syria.

2) Israel has two Hezbollah members hostage and will not release them because they killed Isrealis.

3) Fighting has occured because Hezbollah captured Israelis to ensure an exchange.

4) Lebanese people do not view Hezbollah as terrorists OR they do view them but support it because they protect Lebanon OR are mad at them for dragging the country into war. OR A COMBINATION OF AL THREE

I am most confused about the perception of Hezbollah by the Lebanese people. Please let me know how my thoughts are in comparison to yours so I can get a better understanding of what is going on. I need to do more research about the history so any historical info is also helpful

Fighting Sullyvan said...

If Israelis are "fake" than I guess nasbined, haustat1 and their ilk are the authentic assholes. Can't we have a geographical land mass where all the nutter fanatics can go live and the rest of us can get on with life. We can call it Fanaticland. Nasbined, you can be the Supreme Assahola of fanaticland. Wait, what's that you say? There is a land mass already for this very purpose? The Middle East? No wonder you hate the Israelis and the Maronites so much. Not to mention the moderate Muslims. They have no business in Fanaticland. Didn't they get the memo? Silly Dhimmis. Power is for fanatics, not normal people.

Amon Ra said...


The answer of the "Civilized" world to the "Islamic Terror", as you call it, should not be a different kind of terror...

Forgive me but your approach sounds to me rather unilateral. I am not providing any analysis because i can not count how many previous posts have similar discussions.

However, if you think that Israel has the control then this happens only because of the US and the weakness of European countries and UN to encounter them in the diplomatic field. I wonder whether Israel has the resources for a prolonged war, even against Syria for example???

Silly question... Even if they dont it will be very easy to find cheerful suppliers.


Why it looks to me strange that US express concerns for humanitarian issues while continue supplying Israel with weapons ??? Well maybe i should remember that the leaders of the "Islamic Terror", as you call it, had been supplied with weapons by the US during 80s...

International Politics... I am ready to puke.

Anonymous said...

"I am most confused about the perception of Hezbollah by the Lebanese people" - 'american with questions'

Syria is little more than a client state of Iran, as far as Hezbollah is concerned, and had little to do with the formation of it. Here's one historical paragraph about the origins of Hezbollah.

Inspired by the Iranian Revolution of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, Hezbollah was formed in 1982 with the aid of at least 1,500 Iranian Revolutionary Guards; its immediate priority was to fight the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) that occupied Lebanon at the time, and to help spread Khomeini's Revolution across the Muslim world. Embracing the distinctly Shiite Islamist ideology developed by Khomeini, Hezbollah gradually coalesced and grew when a number of Shiite groups -- such as Islamic Jihad, the Organization of the Oppressed on Earth, and the Revolutionary Justice Organization -- were assimilated into it. By 1988 Hezbollah had replaced Amal as the predominant Shiite force in Lebanon. To this day, Hezbollah credits "the Islamic Revolution in Iran" for having "generalized Islamic expressions against the [W]est such as arrogance, the great Satan, hypocrites, and the oppressed." Its base of operation is in Lebanon's Shiite-dominated areas, including parts of Beirut, southern Lebanon, and the Bekaa Valley. Moreover, U.S. intelligence reports say that Hezbollah has set up working cells in Europe, Africa, South America, and North America. Hezbollah's strength in Lebanon consists of some 4,000 trained militia forces supported by approximately 700 Iranian Revolutionary Guards. [from discoverthenetwork.org]

As to how the Lebanese view Hezbollah, there is much disparity among those who live in Lebanon. A nation of roughly 4 million, about one quarter of the population is Shiite Muslim - that portion which provides the members of and largely supports Hezbollah - although there are numerous Shiites in Lebanon that do not like nor openly support the organization. Of the remaining 3 million who live in Lebanon (Sunni, Christian, Druze and 'liberal' non-religious) less than a few thousand actually like or deliberately support Hezbollah.)

It is my perception that by far, the majority of Lebanese do not like the organization, their policies or their goals - but, they are out-gunned and suffer from lack of support both militarily and through any open political power. Even members of government are forced (though intimidation and threat) to give lip service and often, actual support to the organization. But, even some of these Lebanese grudgingly (qualified) admit that they approve of Hezbollah attacks on Israel when Israel has been drawn into conflict inside the territory of Lebanon. It is another one of those cases where, "... my enemy is my friend when his attacks on his other enemy causes me stress."

nasbined said...

Sillyvan nice ad hominem attacks, how typical of your kind.

Israelis are fake because the country was founded by and is run by fake Jews. European and American Jews are mostly Khazars from Central Asia and Eastern Europe. Not even Jewish by blood. The Khazars were 9th century converts to Judaism. Fake Jews whose ancestors never set foot in Palestine so they have no claim to it.

Anonymous said...

a PS... to 'american with questions'

converse to the usual, "The enemy of my enemy is my friend." - Some Lebanese can't or don't figure that way - and that is hard for many not to understand.

Fighting Sullyvan said...

Nasbined - Your castigating me about ad hominem is pretty funny, but typical of your fanatical kind.
As for Israelis having actual roots in Israel/Palestine, most of the Israelis I see on my TV look like Arabs. I think at least half of the Israelis never left the Middle East. Are they fake too? To your point about the Khazars, I read that even the European (Khazar) jews shared DNA with the Arab jews (and even some Palestinians) establishing for a fact that they indeed hail from this part of the earth.
And I also read that many people from Arabia moved up to Palestine and Lebanon and call themselves Palestinian and Phonecian, when in fact they are not. That is unless all Arabs are the same, which we both know is untrue.

Anonymous said...

"the leaders of the "Islamic Terror", as you call it, had been supplied with weapons" - amon ra

Yeah, they became the typical 'enemy of my enemy' - and now they are again not only our enemy, but that of the majority of the civilized world. You betcha...

They wanted a war, said as much, and now that they have it they squeal for a cease fire. They'll have little of that - by the end of this year, they'll (Iran and Syria) have war in their own front yards.

GSH - Observer said...

fighting sullyvan, Nasvined;

1st: let me correct one thing if i may: the arabs didn't call themseslves Phonecian when they came to Leb., unfortunalty Phonecia was over by that time...but Palestine was their so was Isreal (actually Israel was made of 2 states).

2nd: European (Khazar) jews shared DNA with the Arab jews (and even some Palestinians)
i'm not sure about the European jews, but i'm 100% sure that the Arab jews and the Palestenian do.

Read the old testement....they are the BOTH the sons of Ibraham (mothers Sara and Ghajar)....
why do you think they are both stoburn and emotional?
why do you think they've never been able to leave in peace?

because they share the same damn DNA !!! (people with same mentality repulse each other ...and opposite attracts...simple physics).

amon ra...nice to see you blogging tonight.

Amon Ra said...


If you feel ready even for WW3 allow me to say that i dont share your optimism...

I prefer to live.

In any case, I recommend you watching in DVD "The rise and the fall of the Roman Empire".

Maybe people in White House should watch it too. The sooner they do it, the better for all of us.

stateroom said...

The Palestinian people is a myth concocted for this purpose. In a 1977 interview with a Dutch magazine, PLO executive committee member Zahir Muhsein admitted, "The Palestinian people does not exist."

Zahir explained that there are no inherent differences between Syrians, Jordanians and Palestinians. "Only for political and tactical reasons do we speak today about the existence of a Palestinian people, since Arab national interests demand that we posit the existence of a distinct Palestinian people to oppose Zionism."

As a sovereign state, Jordan can't demand Ramallah and East Jerusalem. As a so-called dispossessed people, the Palestinians can.

Two days after he shook hands with the late Yitzhak Rabin on the White House lawn in 1993, Arafat set forth his strategy in an interview on Jordanian television: "Since we cannot defeat Israel in war, we do this in stages. We take any and every territory that we can of Palestine and establish a sovereignty there, and we use it as a springboard to take more. When the time comes, we can get the Arab nations to join us for the final blow against Israel."

Fighting Sullyvan said...


You may have a point. I have jewish friends and arab friends (Coptic Christians) and they are very similar in many ways. Both good and bad.

Marion Delgado said...

Just to quickly clear something up that doesn't belong here anyway. This "dhimmi as a term of abuse" thing is very bigoted. For its time and place the status of non-Moslems in the Caliphates and Moslem empires was very high. The reason they were taxed and not Moslems was that Moslems were already required by sharia (and really, just by faith too) to tithe what the "dhimmis" were paying. the alternative would have been to have Christians, Jews, etc. paying to mosques, or to have people living in a society paying no taxes whatsoever. I realize most people who use this term now are in favor of the overclass paying no taxes, so that must be the real problem. Suffice it to say, everyone was paying roughly the same "flat tax," moslem and non-moslem alike.

All your use of the term shows is that you don't know anything about history.

stateroom said...

BEIRUT, Lebanon - A senior Hezbollah official said Tuesday the guerrilla group did not expect Israel to react so strongly to its capture of two Israeli soldiers.

Mahmoud Komati, deputy chief of Hezbollah’s political arm, also told The Associated Press in an interview that his group will not lay down arms. “The truth is — let me say this clearly — we didn’t even expect (this) response.... that (Israel) would exploit this operation for this big war against us,” said Komati.

He said Hezbollah had expected “the usual, limited response” from Israel to the July 12 cross-border raid, in which three Israelis were killed. In the past, he said, Israeli responses to Hezbollah actions included sending commandos into Lebanon to seize Hezbollah officials or briefly targeting specific Hezbollah strongholds.


Amon Ra said...


nice to see you too. Our previous discussions was rather informative for me

Fighting Sullyvan said...

THanks Marion. That was actually helpful. I stand corrected.

Here is an article I found on the issue of common DNA.


Anonymous said...

Raja –

I can’t believe anyone that purports to be a part of ‘Strategic International Studies’ could be so politically and militarily stupid as to suggest such a reprehensible ‘solution.’ The man has proven himself an ass of greater proportion than any other of recent time.

GSH - Observer said...


the map of the world as we know it was drawn by the British and the French....and based on that....as of 1947 Palestine was a seperate state under the british mandate.

as for Mr. Muhsein...he was playing on the tune of the "Arabic Nation" by underminig the existing states...
the palastenians and the arab jews were living together in palestine and co-existing very well...untill 1948 and the "Belfor Promisse".

Maybe the Israelies would like to change history....but i'm sure we can still find memos and publications from before 1948 that proof the presence of muslim, jews ,christian and Druze in the same land of palestine or israel (this land exchanged these 2 names god knows how many times) all conducting a normal peacful presence.

Kifaya said...

the enslavement of Lebanon's Muslims

Educate us further, if you will. Describe the enslavement, exactly, under no uncertain terms. What is the alternative Muslim utopia you so dream of? And can you provide a modern day example or are you thinking or some other time?

stateroom said...

The truth is that Palestine is no more real than Never-Never Land. The first time the name was used was in 70 A.D. when the Romans committed genocide against the Jews, smashed the Temple and declared the land of Israel would be no more. From then on, the Romans promised, it would be known as Palestine. The name was derived from the Philistines, a Goliathian people conquered by the Jews centuries earlier. It was a way for the Romans to add insult to injury. They also tried to change the name of Jerusalem to Aelia Capitolina, but that had even less staying power.

Palestine has never existed -- before or since -- as an autonomous entity. It was ruled alternately by Rome, by Islamic and Christian crusaders, by the Ottoman Empire and, briefly, by the British after World War I. The British agreed to restore at least part of the land to the Jewish people as their homeland.

There is no language known as Palestinian. There is no distinct Palestinian culture. There has never been a land known as Palestine governed by Palestinians. Palestinians are Arabs, indistinguishable from Jordanians (another recent invention), Syrians, Lebanese, Iraqis, etc. Keep in mind that the Arabs control 99.9 percent of the Middle East lands. Israel represents one-tenth of 1 percent of the landmass.

But that's too much for the Arabs. They want it all. And that is ultimately what the fighting in Israel is about today. Greed. Pride. Envy. Covetousness. No matter how many land concessions the Israelis make, it will never be enough.

What about Islam's holy sites? There are none in Jerusalem.

Kifaya said...

nasbined said...
Not even Jewish by blood.

Ahhh...and we should allll know what this means...if you're not related by blood, you know, blood brothers, well!, you are by all definitions a substandard human being. an OTHER!

Kifaya said...

Crusader France carved Lebanon out of the loins of Syria.

*sigh* since you gotta get all biblical and shiite, the fact of the matter is, anything touched by Damascus is curse. Been that way since before the birth of Christ.

Poul said...

Bad Vilbel,

i didn't say you had to succeed. but you didn't even *start* for the whole year. and you were not about to.

although, don't compare it with iraq. americans are occupiers in iraq, lebanon is your own country.

Bad Vilbel said...


Yes we started and didn't succeed. Go check your facts please.
There were calls for HA to disarm from the likes of Jumblatt, and various other factions.
Then Michel Aoun allied himself with HA and made it real difficult on the March 14 movement to get much accomplished.
Even after that, they still managed to initiate the "National Dialogue".

Granted, it was failing miserably. But we had indeed STARTED.

Historical accuracy, please...

Unknown said...

Fighting Sullivan,

Marion omits a great deal in his whitewash of dhimmitude. Dhimmis are literally, legally second-class citizens. They generally must wear identifying garments (yellow stars, perhaps?) and live in specified areas. They cannot testify against or sue a Muslim. In the 'Golden Age' of Islam, sometimes their children were stolen, forcibly converted, and made into slave soldiers such as the Mameluks and Janissaries. It is definitely not a 'separate but equal' arrangement.

Pasdutout said...

Mr. Nasrullah explained last night that had he not triggerred the conflict on July 12, Israel would have launched its own offensive anyway within 2 months.

I was wandering what People in the forum (esp. the Lebanese) think about this?

Unknown said...

i'm sure we can still find memos and publications from before 1948 that proof the presence of muslim, jews ,christian and Druze in the same land of palestine or israel (this land exchanged these 2 names god knows how many times) all conducting a normal peacful presence.

1920 - Three days of Arab riots indulging in robbery, rape, and murder in Jerusalem. 5 Jews and 4 Arabs killed.

1921 - Arab riots begin in Jaffa spread throughout the region, killing 45 Jews. 48 Arabs killed by British restoring order.

1929 - Another Arab riot in Jerusalem. 133 Jews killed by Arabs. 116 Arabs killed by British restoring order.

1936-1939 - An Arab revolt against Jewish immigration leads to three years of sporadic violence. 400 Jews and 5000+ Arabs are killed.

I'm afraid Mandate Palestine was far from a multiculti paradise. The only place in the ME you find Arabs and Jews living together in peace is Israel.

Unknown said...

Israel would have launched its own offensive anyway within 2 months

Sheer, self-serving mendacity. It's absurd. I'm sure Lebanon is a wonderful place, but c'mon. Israel's got enough to do without trying to conquer her neighbors. And for what? Pissing off the UN -- worse, pissing off the US -- just to have the dubious fun of trying to oppress 4 million people? But, let's say the Knesset had been secretly replaced by alien pod people crazed with a lust for Lebanese falafel. Nasrallah's cunning plan to deal with an unprovoked invasion that would've brought worldwide opprobrium down on Israel's head was to hand Israel casus belli on a silver platter?!

dunes said...

well about that arabs and jews living side by side .
in marrocco in the early 1900 and 1800 jews were widely accpeted because the goverment had a hand in it .
any way when the jews left marrocco in the 60's and 50's the marrocan king 30 years later said that the fact of jews leaving marrocco set the country in a standstill for 30 years .
so jews and arabs can live together but only if the goverment wants it.
and i dont see any arab country goverment wanting to make that happen.

Lirun said...

many of my closest friends overseas are muslim and christian arabs.. i'm not much of a "positive" discriminator but they were simply the people i connected with.. obviously i had non middle eastern friends as well..

the fact is whether we like it or not we are living side by side.. albeit in separate countries.. but no one is really going anywhere.. and even if we do - we're still on the some bloody and polluted planet..

saying that we cant live together is denial.. because we do.. whether peacefully or otherwise..

this is why the fighting seems to aimless to me.. because at the end of the day.. we're all one big fat juicey neighbourhood anyway..

i dont think bringing in the syrians is a good idea.. i think that would be a step back..

its a tough call though.. i cant help dreading the fear of another country spiralling down into iraqation..

wishing peace to all sides internally and across our borders..

lets give the east mediterranean a break from all the violence

Baroon said...

Dear "american with questions"

If u like leave ur email address or any messenger ID i might be able to answer some of your quastions and we might be able to exchange ideas

Unknown said...

I think this is a seductive alternative because it is a) articulate, b) the way the old style, TOP dictating what the bottom will follow, since the age of nationalism began in the 19th century. ANY BRITISH diplomat of the 19th century would be proud to author the article presented here.

BUT can we truly return to a time when people were pushed around like pawns on a chessboard?

OF COURSE NOT. It can't happen like that any more. The wish for Syria, regardless of whether they would/could come, should come or not is a fantasy.

Lebanon has a Shiite majority, the new
state of affairs will be that the country has to get used to a government formed by Shiite politicians, if the votes are there. If the Shiite majority had not been treated as second class citizens....but we can't look at the past. The future is enfranchizing the voters of the Shiite South in new elections after this war.

nasbined said...

TV news says 25 Israeli Soldiers reported killed today in Lebanon. Hezbollah reports that they will be firing missiles south of Haifa.

The real holocaust has begun.

Fearless said...


Dans ce discour, enregistré, il a reconnu la surprise de son organistion par la réaction israélienne: le Hezbollah n'est pas encore battu ni abattu mais si il a été désagréablement surpris par Israël cela veut dire que le premier but qu'Israël s'est fixé en générant cette opération, changer l'équation des rapports dans la région, a une bonne chance de réussir: la situation "après" ne sera pas celle "d'avant"! Le Hezbollah comprend parfaitement sa situation. La sympathie des médias et de l'opinion publique 1) n'est plus ce qu'elle était ou supposée être 2) ne prottège pas beaucoup des bombes et des balles 4) même en démocratie il y a des choses que les gouvernements décident 5) à Rome, Nasrallah obtiendra peut-être un répis mais la fin de son organisation armée pointe à l'horison

Nasralla et le Hezbollah vont donc devoir manoeuvrer serré sur le plan diplomatique et politique, alors que leur situation militaire n'est pas au mieu, s'ils veulent survivre au moins comme organisation politique.

L'Iran qui n'aurra gagné que quelques semaines alors qu'elle a besoin de quelques mois de silence pour son programme nucléaire, fera tout pour pousser le Hezbollah dans une position encore plus radicale et devra ajouter d'autres pressions, sur d'autres fronts, pour gagner ce temps dont elle a besoin. Ce sera dans des régions proches, en Irak, en Arabie Saoudite qui a pris partie dans le conflit actuel, en Afganistan et dansle Golfe Persique. Mais ce sera aussi dans d'autres endroits du monde comme les attentats en Argentines l'avaient montré. Le conflit actuel en Somalie où l'armée éthiopienne agit librement face aux "tribunaux de l'Islam" dans le désintérêt général, est un bon candidat pour chauffer la planète!


Vaste sujet...

Etes-vous prêts à mettre la main au portefeuille ? Va-t'on être obligés de subir un nouvel impôt francarabien pour la "reconstruction du Liban" ?

A la vitesse ou va francarabia, il faut s'attendre à tout... Des milliards d'Euros (que l'hexagone devra emprunter à dieu sait qui) vont affluer vers le Liban une fois que les choses se seront calmées (peut-être pas pour tout de suite).

Le roi d'Arabie Saoudite a promis de l'argent. Mais à mon avis l'europe (et francarabia) va aussi vouloir participer au financement de la reconstruction.

Qu'en pensez-vous ?

En ce qui me concerne, je refuse de payer un seul centime (d'euro ou autre) pour le liban, la palestine, l'iraq, l'afghanistan, haïti ou ailleurs. Je ne me sens aucunement responsable pour les actions des terroristes, d'où qu'ils viennent.

On en a déjà assez avec les catastrophes naturelles. Pour le reste, c'est NIET.

Fearless said...

Tuesday, July 25, 2006
MEMRI: Walid Jumblatt: I Have the Right to Challenge Nasrallah's Heroism

Special - Lebanon
July 26, 2006

Lebanese Druze Leader Walid Jumblatt on Al-Arabiya TV: Do Lebanese Really
Agree That the Battle of the [Islamic] Nation Should Be Launched From
Lebanon?; I Was First to Warn of the Iranian-Syrian Alliance; I Have the
Right to Challenge Nasrallah's Heroism

The following are excerpts from an interview with Lebanese Druze leader
Walid Jumblatt, which aired on Al-Arabiya TV on July 20, 2006.(1)

TO VIEW THIS CLIP, VISIT: http://www.memritv.org/search.asp?ACT=S9&P1=1201 .

Walid Jumblatt: "Hassan Nasrallah made the decision to go to war without
consulting anyone."


"Today, the Lebanese state has become a kind of Red Cross. If tomorrow a
cease-fire is reached - even if the state is represented formally on the
issue of the prisoners - the Lebanese state would still be incapable of
[fulfilling] all its plans - to spread its sovereignty to South Lebanon and
to the refugee camps, and especially with regard to the weapons outside the
refugee camps."


"A cease-fire between who? [Israel] and the Lebanese state? Will Hizbullah
recognize the Lebanese state?"


"Will the weapons of Hizbullah be incorporated into the defensive system of
the Lebanese army, and I emphasize the word 'defensive?' Or will there be a
cease-fire, and then the first article on the agenda will be that we should
liberate the prisoners. Then he will say to you: 'We want to liberate the
Shab'a Farms, and I need to keep my weapons in order to liberate Shab'a.'
Then he will tell you that we should implement Resolution 194 - the return
of the refugees to Palestine. In such a case, Lebanon will become an open
battlefield for the Syrian and Iranian regimes."


Interviewer: "Nasrallah also said he was fighting for the sake of the


Walid Jumblatt: "No one empowered him to fight from Lebanon for the sake of
the nation."


"If Syrian patronage over Lebanon is restored, we will have a dictatorship,
like the Syrian and Iranian regimes."


"The question should be directed at Hassan [Nasrallah], and at the Syrians
and Iranians with their agenda: Do they really want a Lebanese state, or do
they want an open battlefield, which would serve Iran's nuclear interests
and expansionist goals in the Gulf? As for Syria, it benefits when Lebanon
turns into rubble. The poorer the Lebanese people gets, the more it is
destroyed, the more the elite emigrate. How does [Syrian President Bashar
Al-Assad] manage to rule Syria? Through poverty. He rules it through power
and intelligence agencies. He rules a people that is wretched, imprisoned.
He wants to do the same to Lebanon, because he envies us. He envies our
pluralism, our vitality, our culture, and our free press. What did he do to
the Syrian intellectuals? He imprisoned them. Why? Because they had the
courage to say: 'Let's make some changes.'"


"Is there really a Lebanese consensus that the battle of the [Islamic]
nation should be launched from Lebanon? Do all we Lebanese really agree with
the words of that 'hero' from afar, the head of the Iranian Shura Council,
who said that from Lebanon, from Meis Al-Jabal and 'Ayta Al-Sha'b, we will
set out to liberate Palestine in its entirety, inch by inch? I have no
objection, but why Lebanon alone? Why is there a disengagement agreement in
the occupied Syrian land of the Golan? How come 4-5 million Israeli and
foreign tourists come to the Golan? How come no bullet has been fired in the
Golan since 1974?"


"I believe that the first person to warn against the Iranian-Syrian alliance
was me, Walid Jumblatt. I tried to warn Saudi Arabia and Egypt about the
dangers. I traveled to America as well. I did not ask the Americans to
topple the Syrian regime. Not at all. I asked for a change of behavior - but
one cannot change the behavior of a terrorist regime."


Interviewer: "Hassan Nasrallah is considered a hero by the Arab peoples."

Walid Jumblatt: "Great, so he's a hero. But I'd like to challenge this
heroism of his. I have the right to challenge it, because my country is in
flames. Besides, we did not agree... We agreed on an agenda with regard to
Palestine. If the agenda changes, that will be another matter. The agenda
with regard to Palestine, on which we agreed, includes the establishment of
a [Palestinian] state alongside Israel, the right of return, Jerusalem as
the capital, the demolition of the wall of humiliation, and the dismantling
of the settlements. This is our agenda at this point in time. In his
political speeches, [Nasrallah] says: 'I do not recognize the state of
Israel, and I want to set out from South Lebanon to liberate Palestine in
its entirety.' This is what he is doing. If this is his agenda, I have the
right to oppose it."

(1) For other MEMRI dispatches on the current Middle East crisis please see:
Special Dispatch No. 1212, "Iranian President Ahmadinejad on IRINN TV:
'Lebanon is the Scene of an Historic Test, Which Will Determine the Future
of Humanity,'" July 26, 2006,
http://memri.org/bin/articles.cgi?Page=archives&Area=sd&ID=SP121206 .

Special Dispatch No. 1211, "Hizbullah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah: I
Told Lebanese Political Leaders We Would Abduct Israeli Soldiers," July 25,
2006, http://memri.org/bin/articles.cgi?Page=archives&Area=sd&ID=SP121106 .

Inquiry & Analysis No. 289, "The Middle East Crisis - Local, Regional, and
Global; Conventional and Nuclear (2): The War in the Perception of Iran,
Syria, and Hizbullah," July 24, 2006,
http://memri.org/bin/articles.cgi?Page=archives&Area=ia&ID=IA28906 ;

Inquiry & Analysis No. 288, "The Middle East Crisis - Local, Regional, and
Global; Conventional and Nuclear: The War in the Perception of Iran, Syria,
and Hizbullah," July 21, 2006,
http://memri.org/bin/articles.cgi?Page=archives&Area=ia&ID=IA28806 ;

Special Dispatch No. 1208, "Iran and the Recent Escalation on Israel's
Borders (5): Reactions in Iran, Lebanon, and Syria," July 18, 2006,
http://memri.org/bin/articles.cgi?Page=archives&Area=sd&ID=SP120806 ;

Special Dispatch No. 1207, "Iran and the Recent Escalation on Israel's
Borders (4): Reactions in Iran, Lebanon, and Syria," July 17, 2006,
http://memri.org/bin/articles.cgi?Page=archives&Area=sd&ID=SP120706 ;

Special Dispatch No. 1206, "Iran and the Recent Escalation on Israel's
Borders (3): Reactions in Iran, Lebanon, and Syria," July 14, 2006,
http://memri.org/bin/articles.cgi?Page=archives&Area=sd&ID=SP120606 ;

Special Dispatch No. 1205, "Iran and the Recent Escalation on Israel's
Borders (2): Reactions in Iran, Lebanon, and Syria," July 14, 2006,
http://memri.org/bin/articles.cgi?Page=archives&Area=sd&ID=SP120506 ;

Special Dispatch No. 1204, "Iran and the Recent Escalation on Israel's
Borders: Reactions in Iran, Lebanon, and Syria," July 13, 2006,
http://memri.org/bin/articles.cgi?Page=archives&Area=sd&ID=SP120406 .


Fearless said...


I. Introduction
En mai 2000, Israël retirait (définitivement) ses troupes du Sud-Liban et
démantelait son armée supplétive, l’ALS (l’armée du Liban Sud). Depuis,
alors que l’Etat hébreu n’a plus aucun conflit territorial avec le Liban et
qu’il s’est conformé à toutes les résolutions des Nations unies, les
populations du Nord d’Israël font pourtant régulièrement les frais des
tirs de Katiouchas lancés par la milice chiite à partir du territoire qu’elle
contrôle tant par les armes que par ses oeuvres caritatives. Territoire où,
depuis plus de 30 ans, l’Etat libanais est incapable d’établir une
quelconque souveraineté. Car si l’immobilisme dont le Sud-Liban est
victime est sans doute le fruit des guerres, l’absence de considération visà-
vis des problèmes spécifiques du Sud-Liban par le pouvoir central
libanais reste la principale cause de sa marginalisation. La conséquence
inéluctable de cette déréliction est la constitution d’un espace qui est
devenu au fur et à mesure des conflits un enjeu territorial et politique de
première importance.
Les récentes attaques du Hezbollah sont sans précédent tant par leur
ampleur (portée et puissance des roquettes) que par leur fréquence. La
crise fait rage et il serait bien hasardeux de s’engager dans une analyse
prospective tant sur la durée que sur l’ampleur du conflit. Celui-ci risque
néanmoins de contraindre –à terme –Israël ou une force internationale
à réoccuper le Sud-Liban afin d’y recréer une zone tampon, une zone de
sécurité, comme Israël l’a fait auparavant. Cette option apparaît
aujourd’hui être une nécessité pour neutraliser le mouvement terroriste
chiite pro-iranien et permettre, peut-être, au gouvernement libanais de
recouvrer le contrôle du Sud-Liban.
La présente note passe en revue les différents conflits qui ont à jamais
meurtri le Liban et plus particulièrement le Sud-Liban. Si l’étude du
Liban est d’une grande complexité – tant la multiplicité des causes à
l’origine des conflits que le grand nombre d’acteurs en présence peuvent
mettre en péril l’analyse politique – l’analyse historique permet
d’appréhender au mieux la situation actuelle.

Fearless said...

The crisis began as two uncoordinated kidnappings of Israeli soldiers. Now foreigners flee Beirut, Israeli troops move into southern Lebanon and it has become a small war. It is a typical asymmetric war — of the guerrilla army against a state, the politically cunning against an exasperated government — with a natural tendency to spin out of anyone’s control.
On one side Hezbollah mixes the tactics of the terrorist, the guerrilla and the victim. The overall strategy is political: to provoke the Israelis into overreaction, to cement local support and international condemnation for their attackers and to be nimble enough to survive the onslaught.

So Hezbollah launches hundreds of Katyusha and Fajr-3 rockets into Israel, as far south as Haifa and Nazareth, killing more than 30 civilians and soldiers, and provoking Israel to hit some 1,200 targets in Lebanon, killing more than 300.

This grisly 1:10 casualty ratio generates exactly the international reaction that Hezbollah wants. A guerrilla army will never beat a good conventional army, but it can prevent the conventional force from winning on the battlefield while its government is beaten politically in capitals around the world.

This is what happened during 18 years of Israeli occupation of southern Lebanon which ended in 2000. Hezbollah is confident that it can make that happen again if the Israelis try to stay in Lebanon. They are always in danger of overplaying it, of course, making the Lebanese weary of devastation. But so far there are few indications of that.

Why has Israel been sucked into this asymmetric war? One reason is that Israeli military and intelligence services have been achieving real successes targeting Hamas terrorist leaders in Gaza and the West Bank. Dramatic increases in Israeli intelligence have allowed their security forces to target individuals much more precisely, to penetrate terror networks and intercept a number of plots.

The Israelis felt confident that at last they were making a success of it against Hamas and have taken the fight directly to them. They might have felt they could extend this success to their Hezbollah enemies in the north.

They knew where rocket sites were, knew the location of some stockpiles and transit routes and knew a lot of what went on in the Haret Hreik district of south Beirut where Hezbollah had its headquarters.

However, not much has been achieved in 12 days of fighting and now the Israelis are drawn into deep “search and destroy” operations on the ground in Lebanon. The dynamics of the fighting may overtake the strategic calculations behind it.

It leaves the Israeli government grasping for the higher political ground in the battle for world opinion. The original kidnappings and attacks, the Israelis insist, are all manifestations of America’s war on terror. The Israelis are on America’s front line in that war and the real adversaries are Hezbollah’s backers, Syria and Iran.

There is certainly some truth in this: the number and sophistication of Hezbollah’s rockets are hard to explain otherwise. There is growing evidence that Iran encouraged Hezbollah to attack now so as to widen the diplomatic struggle over its nuclear ambitions. A Shi’ite front against Israel and its western friends would put extra cards into Iran’s diplomatic hand.

Nevertheless, Israel is having trouble convincing the rest of the world that it is manning a front line in some grand civil war raging across the Islamic Middle East. It is actually facing the old military conundrum: that there is no silver bullet for governments facing a skilful asymmetric opponent.

nasbined said...

35 Israeli soldiers now reported killed on the news. Israel started its own war of self destruction the moment it violated Lebanese sovereignty.

Amon Ra said...

"UN peacekeepers in south Lebanon contacted Israel 10 times before an Israeli bomb killed four UN personnel, sources familiar with a UN report say.

The post was hit by a precision-guided missile after six hours of shelling nearby, diplomats familiar with the initial probe into the deaths say"


It gets better and better the way Israel respects international law and UN. What about a new term???

"Civilized Terrorism"

nasbined said...

amon ra: no jews = know peace israel is a crime against humanity.

nasbined said...

Hezbollah just reported in the news that 13 Jews burned alive in their ovens I mean tanks ;)

nasbined said...

Look, all of Lebanon, the entire Muslim nation unites against Israel and their Christian Crusader Collaboraters.

3 dozen spies arrests thanks to the united Lebanon's efforts.

Mr. S said...


The fact that you refer to them as Jews, and not Israelis, further reinforces that anti-Israel rhetoric is simply Jew-hatred.

We do not live in tanks. We do not want to. We would prefer peace. Until terror is destroyed and the Arab/Muslim world admits that there is Jewish history in Israel, and until there is a revolution of democratic VALUES and not simply elections, we will need our tanks.


A Jew who would like peace, but will fight if necessary
Jerusalem, Israel


nasbined said...

There is no democracy in Israel because you treat non-Jews like cattle and Palestinian Arabs even worse.
Give the Palestinians their homes in Israel back that the greedy Jews stole. Your entire artificial state is built on the blood of Arabs and US weapons that your blood drunk nation is now using to take revenge against Lebanon where you were so humiliated 6 years ago.

yuri said...


You probably had the same smile and handed out candies just two weeks before. There were great news, Hizballa killed some eight jews and captured two, right ?

Solomon2 said...

If the Syrians are "invited" back in, how could Lebaon be sure that Hezbollah would really be disarmed? That would be more humiliating than ever...

Is it not a far less humiliating option for Lebanon to ally with Israel and the U.N. to disarm Hezbollah instead? At least then you'll know it will happen, and that the Israelis will depart once their mandate is completed.

nasbined said...

Israel is exploiting the situation. Hezbollah wanted to free Lebanese prisoners and end the Israeli occupation of Lebanon as Israel was suppose to do years ago. Israel traded hundreds of prisoners for a Jew drug dealer in 2004. now Israel just committed suicide by using it's ineffective, totally disproportionate force when only negotiations could get Israel what it wants.

Mr. S said...


you're filled with emotion, mostly hatred. you're also a bit inaccurate in your history. the united states only started helping israel seriously in the 1970s - your french friends helped us before that.

if you'd like to read some intellectual material and post thought-out responses, i invite you to post on my blog. Please keep it respectful, nasbinend. maybe you'll learn something.

jerusalem, israel

yuri said...


There were two stages agreement in 2004, the first part of prisoners was exchanged for "drug dealer" and three captured and killed soldiers, the second part(including Samir Quntar) should be freed only for strong information about Ron Arad. So Nasralla lied, he didn't bring any information about Ron Arad, instead of this he tried again and again to capture and to kill.

Mr. S said...

i recommend all see this interview with Dr. Wafa Sultan. The link appears in the article: Video that Must be Seen! Amazing Rebuke of Islamic Terror by Arab-American on Aljazeera, at www.exitthecave.blogspot.com. 3rd or 4th article down.

She's from lebanon and speaks out against the terrorists on aljazeera!!!
it's in arabic with english subtitles.

Solomon2 said...

nasbined, you just pointed out that negotiations didn't work. How can you then claim that only negotiations will work?

nasbined said...

And the occupation of Lebanon must end. But it is too late now. Israel has let the genie out of the bottle and your wish was to be consumed and destroyed by your own arrogance

Mr. S said...

nasbined....listen to what the doctor has to say

she may enlighten you

nasbined said...

shmuel fuck your atheist bitch of a poster boy. Thanks to Israel's arrogance the entire world is firing up the ovens for your kind and all you have is one bitter lesbian? Open your eyes and stop clinging to your propaganda. That circus isn't taken serious by anybody but you monkeys. Israel is wringing the blood out of Palestinian and Lebanese children, Israel is firing missiles at unarmed UN peacekeepers, the whole world knows Israel is the real terrorist state.

yuri said...


During almost 20 years of occupation of Southern Lebanon we did not build there single jewish settlement. We don't need even one centimeter of lebanese land, there were only security reasons for the occupation, believe or not.

nasbined said...

Over that 20 years you were turning Lebanese against each other so there would be no peaceful, strong neighbor and building settlements and military bases in Lebanese land at Shaaba Farms. Plus you were too busy stealing what was left of Palestine, that was enough to keep you all busy for awhile, as Israel is learning the heard way there aren't many Jews in the world. About 35 less today. Meanwhile every Hezbollah soldier that falls gets replaced by 10. 60 volunteers leaving Iran today your newspapers report.

3li- said...


The truth is you tried in the beginning.

Israel had always coveted Lebanon to add to "Eretz Israel," and especially the Litani river.

Manufactured homes where being transported into south Lebanon in early 1983 when the Lebanese realized that their land was next.

Resistance began, and the rest is history..

3li- said...

The "fair and balanced" reporting of the NYT.


Mr. S said...


until you start thinking a bit more rationaly you will be bitter with hatred. It's important to know that we are not going anywhere. No one is preparing ovens for us, us much as you may hope for that. If anyone were to do so, we would take care of them.

I'm glad you went to the site to watch the video. If you enjoy getting angry you should come back often...its updated quite regularly.

dougjnn said...

Bad vilbel said--
“If other countries would leave us in peace, Lebanon CAN and WILL govern itself just fine.”

Other countries AREN’T GOING to leave you in peace, and have no obligation to do so under the current international system, if you allow your territory to become a haven for terrorists who repeatedly attack other countries. Israel in particular isn’t much for turning the other cheek.

dougjnn said...

Stateroom said--
“As a sovereign state, Jordan can't demand Ramallah and East Jerusalem. As a so-called dispossessed people, the Palestinians can.”

That’s idiotic. Of course Jordan could demand territory lost in war back from Israel. Not only could it, it did. As did Egypt. Egypt got that land back in a land for peace deal with Israel brokered by Pres. Carter. Except for Gaza teeming with Palestinian refugees which Egypt decided it didn’t want, so it transferred it’s rights to that land to the Palestinians, with Israel remaining as the occupying power.

Some time after the Egyptian deal Jordan also entered into a peace deal with Israel. Jordan didn’t cede the West Bank it lost in the 67 war to Israel, it transferred it’s rights under the UN system to have that land returned over to the Palestinians.

In many ways it was this transfer of rights to the eventual return of their land by two nations, Egypt and Jordan, that created the Palestinians as a “people”.

But certainly the Arab and Western world had much earlier been talking about a “Palestinian” people, following the lead of the Palestinians themselves.

The reason for them portraying themselves as separate from say Jordanians, apart from the ambitions of their leaders, was that it played in well with anti-colonialist sympathies of the West and particularly its Left. A people who have lost control of ALL of their land to an occupying colonial power is much sympathetic than one such as Jordan that’s just lost a chunk.

Bad Vilbel said...


I was referring to Syria and Iran when i said "other countries leaving us in peace".

My point is that if Lebanon were to be given full sovereignty over it's territory, and have no interference from its neighbours, propping up proxy militias, i am confident the Lebanese can govern themselves.

It doesn't happen overnight, but it can be done.

I seriously cannot believe some people are now convinced that Lebanon needs to be governed by the baathist regime in Syria to be peaceful. Are you people nuts?

You have to ask yourself "Who ok'ed the kidnapping of the 2 soldiers? Who's been providing Hezbollah with weapons and money? Who's been encouraging them to poke at Israel? Who's been helping out Hamas and Islamic Jihad? Who's been assassinating Lebanese leaders who speak out against Hezbollah?"

And then you have to ask yourself "Do I really want those guys back in Lebanon? Do i truely believe them when they say they can stabilize it?"

Give me a break.

Lirun said...

nasbind.. you're not very persuasive.. its always interesting to listen to people who assert that their rights are paramount but those of others do not exist.. you speak often of israeli crimes and ill treatment of populations and your right to life and you blend a vicious cocktail of puritan values with spurious hypocracy.. you blatantly deny that i too may deserve to live in peace or safely.. only your safety counts and mine can be compromised to no end and this does not matter to you.. yet you scream and yell that i need to worry about yours.. this does not nothing to promote your interests - nor does it do much to impact the interests of those you claim to hate.. the fact is i do worry about yours.. as much as i deplore the violence - even my warring country worries about you.. it would be so much simpler to carpet bomb lebanon.. instead however we watch our friends and family get sent into the depths of your terrorist incubators so that they canuse their very best efforts to avoid a single civilian death.. naturally you demonise us and call us the enemy of all of lebanon.. but if you were true to yourself you would consider that as tragic as the outcome may be.. there is in fact no intention to harm lebanon as a people..

anyway an interesting evolution in israeli politics hits the news.. olmert seeks a clear view of how soon this is going to end.. this indicates tension between our government and our military.. i hope this will challenge our government to enhance and refine and accelerate its political efforts to achieve a solution that does not involve tragic means.. whether or not such are justifiable..

wishing peace to our region and a special prayer of peace to nasbind..

i believe peace is achievable

dougjnn said...

Lirun said—
“anyway an interesting evolution in israeli politics hits the news.. olmert seeks a clear view of how soon this is going to end.. this indicates tension between our government and our military.. i hope this will challenge our government to enhance and refine and accelerate its political efforts to achieve a solution that does not involve tragic means.. whether or not such are justifiable..”

I was saying a couple of days ago on another blog – actually an Haaretz talkback forum which they have at the bottom of a lot of opinion pieces – that I thought it was in Israel’s best strategic interests to end this war RIGHT NOW. It’s now a bit late but better now than later.

I wasn’t making an argument about international or Arab opinion or creating more terrorists or any of that.

I was pointing out that 1) it already looked then like it was going to be much harder and slower and inconclusive on the ground than many had thought, but that the wider world hadn’t realized that and Hezbollah couldn’t be sure that would last either;

2) even if Hez could be disarmed that couldn’t be made permanent, they could be resupplied after a period of time by Iran;

3) even if Hez could be pushed N. of the Litani river or anyway far enough so that most of their rockets couldn’t reach Israel they could infiltrate back unless all the civilian population was removed which isn’t on these days, at least by a Western power given Western media and rights groups actually caring about enforcing Geneva against Western powers;

4) only a new Israeli occupation could significantly hinder their re-establishing themselves as strongly as before – it’s a fantasy to think that any international force UN or NATO is going to fight Hez for Israel to prevent that; so therefore

5) the only good thing actually achievable for Israel out of this war in reality is deterrence; and

6) deterrence (motivation) have already been maximized for the bulk of the Lebanese population – they know how dangerous it is to allow Hez to conduct rocket and other raids against Israel from Lebanon; and

7) all the deterrence that an air war can create has already also been created in Hez’s leadership itself already, what with the loses to it’s infrastructure, dangers or loses among it’s leaders, and losses among it’s supporters ; and finally

8) while it’s true that a rout or other really decisive ground victory against Hez would create significantly more deterrence (to not resume rocket attacks and cross border raids after a ceasefire) than exists presently, if as time drags on Israel fails to pull that off but only “kills more of them than the reverse” and quasi holds deeply dangerous territory and the like, then DETERRENCE WOULD DECLINE FROM ITS PRESENT LEVEL as Hez realizes Israel is actually incapable of routing it or could only do so with a hurculean effort she doesn’t wish to expend.

Well, as I said, I made that argument two days ago. I think some deterrent effect has already been lost.

FOR HER OWN GOOD (and that of the non-Hez supporters in Lebanon as well) ISRAEL SHOULD STOP THIS WAR NOW – by telling the US in private to go ahead and very noisily demand an immediate ceasefire. Of course post Rome that’s hard to do.

Solomon2 said...

I think nasbined may have missed a dose or two of his medication. He's not making sense, not even to his ideological allies.

Dimitry said...

He said Hezbollah had expected “the usual, limited response” from Israel to the July 12 cross-border raid, in which three Israelis were killed.

What, so there were attacks before, and Israel only reacted in a limit way? Enough of them for it to be concidered usual?
Gee, with that working so well, gotta wonder why Israel eventually decided to attack with great force.


A cease fire and retreat now would be claimed as a victory by the Hizballah, strengthening their position as "the only Arab/Muslim force that can defeat Israel". This would hit the detterance effect, perhaps no less than slow, grinding war.

If tommorow Israel declares cease fire and pulls back, and Hiz would refuse under any conditions to disarm - would the Lebanese government go to war with them rather than let them provoke Israel to another round? Would the Lebanese people support it?

yuri said...

Al-Ghadabulsaati3 said...
The truth is you tried in the beginning.

I'll be appreciate for the link on reliable source with the full story.

sparkle hayter said...

Oddly enough though, it appears most of the PEOPLE of Iran do not want war. Not sure about the Syrians, but the reports from Lebanese refugees in Syria indicat the Syrian people have opened their homes and been very kind and generous.

How come people can be so good and fair, and their governments can be such a-holes? What's wrong with this picture?

yo momma said...

marion is a lying douchebag--the dhimmis had to pay the jizya and kharaj in a ceremony where after it was handed over the head mohammedan yanked his beard or slapped his face--the koranic sura calls for the dhimmi to be feel humiliated and subdued when paying the ahl al kitab tax--hey marion putz you would have made a good janissary handing out the mussleman camelshit propaganda-step out of the muzzie's way in the street--no new churches--no repaired churches--no building higher than a mussleman's--can't ride a horse etc.etc,etc,--you lebos were mistreated by the peninsula arabs and the abbasid and ummayid caliphs--you were non arab mawalis until you fucked your way into the umma--even you were secomd class citizens to the arab dictators of the caliphate--give up your medieval death cult or we in the west are going to go conquistador on you-you'll be like the aztecs lomging for quezlcotl--ALLAHU NAKBAH

Lalith said...

Case of effective lying:

http://www.geocities.com/Capitol...s-iraq- lie.html

Wow ! Israel, USA & UK is telling the whole truth, nothing but the truth.

Hezbullaos bombed the building after 8 hours !

Hezbullos placed the dead underneath the rubble.

White house just announced Condi is pregnent.

These are 100% truth.