Monday, July 31, 2006

Lost

I wonder what Lebanon and the region will look like after this protracted calamity is over. How long will the IDF generals need, and how much destruction will they sow, in order to "save face?" It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out who the real winner of this conflict is thus far.

On the ground Hizballah has repelled Israeli incursions. On the airwaves, they're winning the propaganda war - in Lebanon, the Arab world and almost everywhere else on this planet. At this point in time, I truly believe that Israel lies in an intractable bind: whatever it does, Hizballah will win.

If Israel cannot even claim some sort of victory on the ground (however vague such a victory may be), the IDF will suffer utter humiliation, and thus have to deal with the short and long term consequences of such a defeat. If, on the other hand, Israel continues its offensive in search of that elusive victory, Hizballah's stature will only grow in prominence both in Lebanon and the entire region.

The fact the generals simply can't swallow is that it really does not matter how much of Hizballah's military capability they eliminate. As long as Hizballah retains its legitimacy, it will merely regroup and probably grow even stronger with time. And all it takes to reinforce that legitimacy is a massacre such as the one that transpired in Qana yesterday. As I wrote earlier in this entry, the military outcome of this war no longer matters: Hizballah has won - it is not going anywhere, and its losses are merely temporary.

The exit strategy now rests on diplomatic efforts to find some sort of "comprehensive solution" that includes the Shebaa farms, prisoner exchanges, deployment of a joint UN-Lebanese Army force in the South of Lebanon, etc.... Unfortunately, it appears that the Israelis do not want to exit at this point in time. Moreover, who knows if Hizballah will even play along.

Again, I go back to the question I asked at the beginning of this entry: how will Lebanon and its environment look like when all this destruction comes to an end? Will a cease fire be reached in two days, two weeks, two months, or (god forbid) two years? I guess we'll have to ask the Israeli generals since the ball appears to be in their court.

46 comments:

Shirin said...

This must end now!!
Not in two days and not in two weeks. Each day the damage in our country, beautiful Lebanon is bigger, people die... children die. Please, i hope with the help of Allah the end is close.

Shirin from Lebanon
http://shirin-from-lebanon.blogspot.com/

JoseyWales said...

Nowhereman Raja is right,

Whether we like it or not, dead civilians are in the short and medium term a plus for Hezbollah.

Raja,

This mess WON'T end before Syria is SERIOUSLY threatened with serious consequences.

If Bush and Israel do not understand this, Lebanon or the South will become Gaza.

michelle said...

This has to end, I am very upset that my government (Canada) is not doing much about this after 8 Canadians and one Canadian peacekeeper has died.

I am upset at my fellow Canadians for turning a blind eye on this matter.

even my parents don't understand why I cry when I read about this or watch it on TV.

To see the destruction just rips my heart out.

Because of this a good friend of mine has created a blog about it.

www.warinlebanon64.blogspot.com

JoseyWales said...

peace_head,

what should i write my PM, that could bring about peace in the area?

Here's my 2 cents. Tell Olmert to drop 1/100 of what he dropped on Lebanon on Syria and this thing will be over in 3 days.

Lirun said...

Hi Raja

i ask the same question.. and it's clear that there will be a lot of work for everyone to do in order to clean the place up.. and it wont happen overnight.. but i think its important not to lose hope.. because in our region often the smallest gestures travel the furthest and the slightest delicacies can rule supreme..

i think it is vital that we continue seeking peace.. lebanon has proven its resilience to the world.. war torn and ravaged - it came leagues ahead of many other nations and demonstrated its resourcefulness and splendour.. it will rise.. i have no doubt - to greater heights than ever

investors will again appreciate your smarts and your talents and your country's gifts.. they will return provided we architect a sustainable solution.. tourists will flock to see your land and you will again begift to the world your unique culture cuisine wisdom sophistication and return to be the champion of political reform in the middle east

once we have peace our business people will find ways to work together and our environmentalists will look to preserve our beaches from the pollution.. your school kids will have annual trips to jerusalem and israeli yuppies will ski on your snow fields and rent holiday chalets in the surrounding mountains..

i dont know what it is i eat or drink (i certainly dont smoke) but when i think of lebanon i dream past the horror and see a peaceful eastern mediterranean with lebanon its proud green mountanous jewel standing tall to the envy and admiration of all..

The Middle East News Addict said...

To Raja

There are no winners in this war. only those who lose less and those who lose more. I am somewhat interested in your notion of Hezbollah victory. What kind of a victory is it? At the end of it all, when the dust settles on this conflict Israel would rebuild itself in a year, two max and Lebanon will be reduced to rubble. If this is victory, then excuse me, I want to be on the losing side. It could be that as you say Hezbollah will win but in order to do so it will sacrifice Lebanon.

The Middle East News Addict said...

To Chas

I agree with you that the UN will not issue a mandate to the extent that will prevent it from defending itself. They all fear that Hezbollah will use it to attack Israel and provoke conflict the way it did on July 12 and right after Israel withdrew from Southern Lebanon. Vouching that Hezbollah will not attack is equal to posting bail to a man you know is going to do the crime. They are right to fear that. After all, the Canadian UN observer killed in the Israeli strike sent an email to UN HQ saying Hezbollah was using them to attack Israel

Marc in Eugene said...

"Avrum said... Raja, you don't get it. As long as we get bombed, we'll fight back. If 700 dead Lebanese won't stop it we'll kill 7000, and if that's not enough we'll kill 70000."

Raja, The sad thing is that HA c a n be eliminated, either literally or metaphorically, with the use of sufficient military violence and as long as one is prepared to accept tens of thousands of deaths. I hope that your country is spared that.

dbquijano said...

the whole situation is just messed up. can israel just stop fighting and be taken seriously?

on the other hand, can they continue to bomb and kill civilians and be taken serious?

hezbollah needs to give back the israeli soldiers to bring peace. i can't see them doing that though.

Baroon said...

Itai said

waw ! a person can read hate to whatever not isrealian in each word and sentense.

Baroon said...

Itai
waw ! a person can read hate to whatever not isrealian in each word and sentense u wrote here

Baroon said...

Itia and Isrealian guys

there is a say : "if u install the base of a bulding wrong it will goes wrong even if u able to bulid it to seven heaven "
this is how ur niegbours look at ur country .
u can live and scream ur national pride .. u may kill HA to the last person ( which is not going to happen) u may finish this war and reach the golas u set ( which is so many observers doubt it ) but ur country will not gain peace.
this is something isrealian are not able to digest or understand that no war will bring them peace. maybe 5-10 years but as long as ISreal policy is what it is and was isrealian will not live in peace .
u might reply me.. may not.. i cant change how u see the world around u but i only can give u a picutre i see it from other side of wall.
HA is not ur worst enemy. the exterimies islamic ways still on the way to come.
anyway .. im sure u, IDF and all ur national pride is ready to take care of it in future.

its so sad to open this page and see ideas like urs and some of ur fellow citizens.

Baroon said...

HA is not ur worst enemy. the exterimies islamic waves still on the way to come...

Baroon said...

Omer

Muslims dont want to kill jew/isrealian!
how done the holocost ? muslims ?
all the Europian nations ( who are not mobs and as ITAI respect them dearly ) where killing and immigrating jews from a country to another country.
muslims ( so called mobs by ITAI) entered these endless wars with jews ( who happend to be isrealians) when jews desided to immigrate to NEW LAND of Isreal from all over the glob

Baroon said...

Omer

Muslims dont want to kill jew/isrealian!
Who done the holocost ? muslims ?
all the Europian nations ( who are not mobs and as ITAI respect them dearly ) where killing and immigrating jews from a country to another country .
muslims ( so called mobs by ITAI) entered these endless wars with jews ( who happend to be isrealians) when jews desided to immigrate to NEW LAND of Isreal from all over the glob

Baroon said...

Omer

ppl dieing every where in every conflict ,thats correct. but in this page we are arguing about lebanon-Isreal war. otherwise we can talking about Indonesia military bombarding Indonesian militance yesterday!

u know one of the areas that haterad forms and begin is where PRIDE NATIONS believe that some lifes worth more than others and well being of their PRIDE NATION is only and last priority .
take a second . imagine if in one suicide bomber 30 Israeli children die or in one HA rocket 30 Israeli die what u gana call it among u?


yes , this is a war and isreal want to win it in a way or another.
some of isrealian say that Israel have a solid peace with Egypt. i doubt they listen or read Egyptian media or have a slightly idea what a egyption person in street is saying . " ekhwan el moslemin" the very same organization who assassinate “Sadat “ and been strong in Egypt is now growing more in parliament and main stream gradually ....
well i better go to bed..im sure u all know politic and WELL INFORMED by ur media and FOX news ! hehe

Baroon said...

ITA
again, here the issue is this war. im sure if u visit a iraqian blogger commentors have diffrent idea

Tsedek said...

~~~~~Hizballah has won - it is not going anywhere, and its losses are merely temporary.~~~~~


If the hizb is not disarmed, the lebanese army spread over all over lebanon, incl. the south - than there is no victory for Israel (and, in my humble opinion, it'll be Lebanon's loss as well) - However, I'm still hearing stern statements, that that is what Israel is after "for as long as it takes"......

So?

Tse.

CMAR II said...

When the Lebanese rid themselves of the Hizballah parasites (a parasite that destroys its host and leaps from the body to murder those around the host), the Israelis will go away.

This invasion is what Hizballah's adventurism has made inevitable.

I'm sorry that the Lebanese government was unable (and unwilling) to rid itself of Hizballah. I don't think the UN will be able to either. The US is not willing to do it for Lebanon either as the people would only call her an occupier. So it is left to Israel to do a job for which the Lebanese ought to (but will not) thank them and do all they can to help them.

Marc in Eugene said...

Omer (Israeli)-- "But threatning lebanese of this will get you noware." I wasn't 'threatening': just stating what seems obvious to me; when the devastation in Lebanon resembles that in Germany (or, as the other commenter remarked, that at Nagasaki and Hiroshima) in 1945, then Israel won't be assaulted from Lebanon.

Lirun said...

this is so typical.. random inciting slogans drowning out the voices of reason and peace.. the sad thing is you guys dont represent the majority.. you maybe represent the mobs and the heat of the moment but not the genuine wish of the majority - which is for peace - whether the acknowledge it or not..

furthermore - i doubt you even represent yourselves..

wishing us all peace without delay

lirun
telaviv
www.esmpeace.blogspot.com
relentlessly raising a voice for peace

Lirun said...

"genius" quote of the day

"stopping for the sake stopping.. it's ok.. but"

did this guy score his brain from the clown heads in a theme park?

some people have no idea what peace is at all..

wishing it relentlessly upon all of us

lirun
telaviv
www.emspeace.blogspot.com
kids crying is an ugly sound

Baroon said...

Steve

what u said " Actually Lebanon and Syria and Iran have a simple choice. Accept Israel or die. Pick one. There are no other choices"
works visa versa.
look an organization made by iran from 1000+ militance how operated in 3 weeks . imagine Iranian military which has 100,000 of these militant + 1,000,000 reserve.

Baroon said...

u guys

as a person who lived in 3 wars since i was 5 years old untill my 30s in the Gulf rigion i will share some ideas , u might think about it , refuse it, argue about it or whatever.
If I was isreali I was going to push toward peace in every possible means I have and avoid any possible upcoming war and take Geographical place of my country even more serious .
Yes , ok . u keep say .. u will fight to last drop and u have no other choice . and im telling u if the real war start u might have to fight to the last Israeli nothing will save Israel . even the nuclear arsenal .
US. Can not and will not help u by dropping another bomb for sake of ur eyes , simply because he needs the oil which coming from this area and in all last three wars he was making sure not to attack oil instructors in the war zone ! plus there is a very well trained militance in iraq . if u heard of it “ Mehdi” and “ Bader” army . more than 25,000 solders + 10 milion angry iraqi of us troops who are actually tacking US troop as hostages in iraq !

Don’t think with all these screams and media iran needs to have nuclear program to produce nuclear bomb. Iran already has enough to fight back if he become target of nuclear attack . u think a country like iran was staying tide handed while Russia fall and his nuclear cases where in to black market by Mafias ?
Anyway… from opinion u post here I don’t see u getting the big picture . u just keep saying HA-Syria – Iran … IDF..we have …we can …we do … .PEACE… but u don’t realize how much its important to push US and ur self to stabilizing the region instead of seeking for conflicts .

U ppl really don’t get it that destroying HA and Lebanon war will not bring u peace ! u cant get it that Isreal

Baroon said...

....U ppl really don’t get it that destroying HA and Lebanon war will not bring u peace ! u cant get it that Isreal is not going to be as strong as u think . u think bcuz u won ( we can hardly call it wining ) in fighting militancy and civilians !! here and there and arab army ( which is really not an army ! ) in decades ago u will able to win futures wars which is totally miscalculation

Lirun said...

i'm confused by the double standards inherent in the criticism against israel..

personally i am pro peace.. i hate the fighting and i hate the devestation..

but i dont like the edgy rhetoric that comes out either..

israel is being called to order for various accusations.. almost all of which could also just as easily be directed to our neighbours and/or the hizballa..

so - i ask how long will all be the "wet towel" as someone put it yesterday of those who benefit from our shared suffering?

not only to the plant seeds of destruction and confusion but now they also have us fighting and dying for them..

i dont remember joining a terrorist organisation.. we are we all swept up in their conflict?

because during times of relative quiet (note the word relative) we neglect our duty to seek peace and build those "tunnels of friendship" that can undermine the infrastructure of hate..

we must build these tunnels.. everyone here on this blog is capable of speaking a common language of understanding if they wish to..

we need to actively bridge this divide.. only then will we have a safe future in our region..

lirun
tel-aviv
www.emspeace.blogspot.com
we can defy the hatred

Baroon said...

Yuri

as i said there is huge miscalculation from Isreal side. keep do the math the way u like to do it.
the same calculation that lead isreal to think war on lebanon will not take more than one week or two , the same calucaltion which think destroying evantually will lead to winning the result.

Ecumene said...

The New Middle East Map
Blood borders
How a better Middle East would look
By Ralph Peters

Ecumene said...

NO MORE WEDDINGS IN QANA

Lirun said...

last night we discussed the issue of showing graphic photos.. my friend from beirut sent me photos today of half kids being carried out of wreckages.. i vommited my guts out..

it made me think of the guy who was hit while driving near haifa the other day.. the missile directly hit his car and it also made me think of the old dr that the hamas kidnapped when he went toget his car fixed and they burned him to a crisp in his car..

we saw photos of both cars in the media - but not the bodies.. i never saw the dismembered israelis who were lynched either..

i'm not sure why our screams are so much quieter than yours..

but i assure you that i seek peace not just for you but for me too.. i hate what is happening to us all..

hope this ends soon
lirun
telaviv
www.emspeace.blogspot.com
you'd almost think there wasnt enough pain on earth

Baroon said...

Lirun

u think u r quiter !! how strange!
u r ready to bomb all over ME for 2 person who evantually will return to isreal. what is quiet about that !
u killing almost 1000 civilians in 3 weeks becuz in 6 years or 10 years u lost 3500 civlians!
im sorry where exactlly u r quiet ?!
i know u trying to be reasonable and peace seeker but what i erad between ur lines is far away from reason

Baroon said...

It seems soon or later ISreal will try to pass a resalution in UN that NO ONE approch an isrealian more than 100 meters otherwise isreal have the right " SELF DEFENSE" to smash that person by a 1000KG bomb over head as a self defense !

Mark Prime (tpm/Confession Zero) said...

It is quite sad that the warring parites do not learn even from debacles such as Iraq. The war (occupation) with Iraq has turned AlQaida into a movement greater than ever dreamed and now this will, fortunately, improve the truth of Hizballah.

I thought you might enjoy this... THE MASK OF WAR

Lirun said...

baroon..

you dont "read between my lines" - you are reading "into my lines" many ideas that are not there..

my point is that there is no monopoly on pain.. if you decide to ignore everyone else's and only attend to your own.. you will then suffer sever shock when they are finally fed up with their pain..

but screaming louder doesnt mean it hurts more..

however.. yes our pain does not receive the coverage that yours does.. no matter what its size and no matter how deep..

to be honest - i dont really care -i am not here to have a yelling match with you or to call you names - that doesnt bring back the dead.. doesnt heal the pain or correct any of the wrongs..

i am merely here to say that this violence is hurting all of us.. and that i dislike it..

the only way you can disagree with me is if you in fact like the violence.. so i'll leave it up to you to represent yourself.. and perhaps you can leave it to me to do the same for myself..

wishing everyone safety and peace to our region

lirun
telaviv
www.emspeace.blogspot.com
peace can exist even where consensus doesnt

Baroon said...

Steve

earlier today i responded to ur comment. i said isrealian must becarful visa versa b`cuz iran has nuclear suitcases (as they show it in hollywood movies) and that doesnt need more one suacide bomer to bring it to tel aviv. and if a bomb kills 500,000 iranian still there will be 60 milion and half iranian left. but unfortunaly in same case only 2.5 milion isrealies!

again and again im saying..Isrealian must do better calculation.

Baroon said...

oh ! not to mention the Geographic status which i
Isreal - Total 22,145 km² (149th)
Iran : Total1,648,195 km² (18th)

so when u want to talk about nuclear arsenal think first of survival of it considering the size of ur country and size of casualties u can tolerate.

Math darling.. math ! + a good plan before starting a war here and there !

Baroon said...

steve

btw as u r here read this article ( The military’s problem with the President’s Iran policy.
) by "SEYMOUR M. HERSH" in the New Yorker . u might find it inlighting .

u 2 " 1 earth" read it

Baroon said...

1 earth

waw.. how scary.. this is new ;) i didnt know that isreal had that much bombs ..waw.. i thought they only keeping candy and roeses on Demona base in isreal;)
m sure then isreal will have peace ;)

Baroon said...

Dunes

I hope u used that " misslies technologie" againes HA rockets which u r complaning about instead of Jumping over lebanon like a mad elephant over a butter fly

Baroon said...

Chen

if i go back through ur comments and copy some of them..it will be obvious who is writing racist bullshit . but since majority of readers here are isrealian it will be useless beside.. UN resulation for not approching any isrealian didnt come out YET

Baroon said...

Itia
1 - i hope so b`cuz we all hope as well that US keep the mad men in ISreal to lunch such attacks.

2-it seems u didnt read all the comments , no one here said that
iran will lunch nuclear attack..STEVE ( who is an isrealian) and couple of others suggested that Syria-iran and others must be aware that Isreal will attack them by neclear ..bla bla and thats where the argument started ( i will copy the comment if i find it between 134 comments !)

Baroon said...

Steve said...
Actually Lebanon and Syria and Iran have a simple choice. Accept Israel or die. Pick one. There are no other choices.

Steve said...
Those in Lebanon, Syria and most importantly Iran, hopefully realize that if Israel is cornered and is truly close to being destroyed, they will unleash their nuclear bombs. If your total and complete destruction is worth your quest to destroy Israel, keep on doing what you are doing.

If you do not believe me, then the enemies of Israel are truly stupid. And I do not think you are stupid.

To save your countries, allow Israel to exist in peace. Your countries will blossom if you do so. Believe me or not, the alternative is more extreme poverty and possilbe ultimate destruction. Your choice!

Anochi said...

Everyone knows that Hezbollah initiated a war with Israel in order to justify its status as a military "state within a state," billing itself as a defender of Lebanon against Israel—even while, far from defending Lebanon, Hezbollah is causing Lebanon to be torn apart. And everyone knows that Hezbollah deliberately operates among Lebanon's civilian population, cynically exploiting the resulting civilian casualties as propaganda.

Baroon said...

boaz arad
it depends who u refer to as " EVERY BODY"

root cause said...

malcomx.... wow! you have it all figured out don't you?? that post was so full of holes and the same propaganda you claim israel issues.
First of all on your "lie #1" you quote the completely unprejudiced NYT....LOL...good source!! And Hez hasn't had ANY casulties..too funny.

"lie #2" please post your fact sheet from Reuters. What year are you even talking about here. And I guess the 257 UN observers either killed or injured in the last 6 years were Israeli induced as well. cmon dude...do some fn research

"lie #3" paaaahhhleeeeez Israel has been out since 2000 u moron. If not I really think the anti-israeli UN would have screamed from the mountain tops...dam dud...get a clue!! and i love how some ppl quote the UN when it is convienent for their specific argument. u want to discuss resolutions...what about 1559?!?!?!

"lie #4"....please quote your source. I have not heard ANY report from ANY lebanese official send troops to the southern border. Does Lebanon even have that many (non-hez) troops???

"lie #5" hear again...state your source.... ur as bad as the NYT!!

"lie #6" I will have to check out this one....this came from left field for me. even if true, 1 of 6 aint real good. your post was FULL of lies tho....lol entertaining read i guess.

And before you go off on some rant about me perpetuating the "Isreali Propaganda Machine", I am not jewish, and have no stake in either side of these horrible events. Just trying to understand both sides and like many ppl here looking for peace and stability in the region.

Marc in Eugene said...

Hugh Johnson-- I point out that Paul Wolfowitz is not and has never been Attorney General of the United States; it is true that he is one of the demonized "neo-cons".