Finally. France and the US have agreed to the details of a Security Council Resolution to end the current violence between Hizballah and Israel. The Council will meet today to discuss the resolution. The vote will take place on Teusday.
What I know thus far: It calls for a cessassion of hostilities, and gives Israel the right to retaliate if Hizballah attacks.
Something else I know: We are going to witness a major escalation before the Security Council votes on the resolution this Teusday.
Q: Is there a difference between "cease fire" and "cessassion of hostilities?" Or is it just semantics?
A: Apparently, it is not merely semantics. A cessassion of hostilities constitutes a first step in working towards a cease fire. It effectively calls for an end to violence without the official declaration of a cease fire.
Hizballah Responds: Hizballah official just declared (11:39 EST) that the organization will continue fighting as long as Israeli troops remain on Lebanese soil.
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5 comments:
good evening guys..
i am pleased that the international efforts have delivered a proposal.. from what i heard of it i believe its reasonable.. at the end of the day the ultimate result can be only one.. the question is how many people need to die until that day arrives..
last night i found it very hard to sleep.. after the hadera bombings i was again asking myself.. is telaviv next? is the living room safer than the security room given my security room faces north? what anger will my country develop tomorrow? how many people will be reproted dead in the morning? what will we now do to the HA and (lebanon in the process)? will the balance of the outcome re-enforce stability or hatred? am i scared? do i resort to statistics? i havent seen some of my colleagues in over a week and they are in lebanon.. are they safe? how many people are thinking about them apart from me? last week i sent a massive crate of toys to the kids in the shelters up north - now the war has expanded should i send more? should i send more care packs to our soldiers - those 18 year old kids that have just matriculated from school? i worked a 70 hour week last week - do i put in more hours? do i get away? what about all the forests up north that are burning.. my grandparents generation planted many of these.. many trees i planted myself.. do i go and fight fire?
this is a very unbalanced war.. we are immeasurably stronger than HA lebanon syria and iran put together.. we could wipe them all out in a second if the violence was strictly physical.. however.. its not.. we are constrained and limited.. while blind missiles slaughtered people in israel only to warm hearts amongst the HA - israel hates the damage that is done to civilians as it pursues the missile launchers.. we are pushed everyday into a guaranteed loss.. we are immeasurably weaker in our ability to moral defend ourselves just as a parent can never justify hitting a child.. even a murderous evil possessed child because conceptually its an impossible sell..
today a pilot refused to be drafted.. he was on tv and he was talking about a copilot of his who said "look at my thumb.. this thumb has released 35 loads.. all through a press of this thumb".. he asked his copilot "how do you live with that" and he answered "the nights are tough.. but the days are impossible".. i was moved by the fact that he knew the number of loads dropped.. he had thought about this extensively.. he was not just a plane operator on "autopilot" but they were both very thoughtful and alert individuals who asked themselves all the right questions..
i dont want any of these questions to ever need to be asked again.. by anyone..
luckily my best friend called me this evening.. i was worried after not having heard for a week.. we are like brothers.. we hang out all the time and go trecking and camping and caving with our crew of friends.. i miss my friends..
sorry.. it just starting flowing..
anyway - i think we all have an opportunity.. the international community - for once - has crafted a solution and is offering to back it.. i think there is a lot to gain by aligning with it.. both in terms of lives spared.. trust built and a rest for our weary lands.. maybe once we wash this dirty canvas of battle we can start to paint a better picture for our region..
wishing us all peace..
lirun
telaviv
www.emspeace.blogspot.com
to no more ugly questions
From the looks of things and as best I can read the map, the buffer zone will be about 5 miles deep. 1 mile, as has been pointed out, is too shallow to be really effective, and 12 (let alone 20) miles is not going to happen. That zone will be depopulated, with all structures (including underground things such as bunkers and tunnels) destroyed. It will also be mined (the mines have already begun to be delivered) albeit how comprensively is anybody's guess. Israel being the technologically kick-a** country that it is, there will probably be other automated/unmanned defenses, as well. As far as how long it will be maintained -- after the absolutely abysmal performance of UNIFIL for the past six years, Israel is not likely to entrust her border security to a 'multi-national force.' It will probably exist and remain under Israeli control until/if the MNF and/or Lebanon get Hezballah disarmed and under control.
Note: The buffer zone will not stop the rockets (other than the short-range ones). That's not what it's for. It's there to prevent ill-wishers tunneling or otherwise sneaking into Israel and making mischief. The MNF and Lebanon get to handle the rocket problem, it being part and parcel with disarming Hezballah, to prove that they're dedicated to making sure this never, ever, ever happens again.
this is the that pisses me off on both sides.. people who are war hungry think that peace seekers are antipatriotic.. how stupid?!?! we want peace because we want our countries to not only subsist but to live in prosperity with the only chance for real security?
it boggles me how that is not obvious..
i need to work on that message because i know a lot of people who aer so blocked up that their logic stops exactly there.
urghhhh!!!
wishing peace to all
lirun
telaviv
www.emspeace.blogspot.com
any suggestions?
earth said, "Israel should take this time to level all the villages and cities south of the Litani river. Turn Southern Lebanon into a no-man's land with mines and flat terrain that lacks ideal locatations for Lebanese to launch attacks at Israel. It's in the interest of both sides that this ceasefire succeeds."
why not level north israel and pound it to dirt and turn it into a no man's land:
- HA rockets would fall into an empty land and noboby gets hurt
- this will keep israelis out of lebanon and then HA would not need to retaliate
Achillea, I don't think ISR wants ro stay in the buffer zone so it won't let LEB go back to normal until they or the world put a leash on HZA and the kidnapped soldiers returned. Two of the smarter ministers in the cabinet, Livni and Dichter, were against going even as far as the Litani. It's useless. You either just destroy the HZA posts within 1 mile of the border or go all the way to Beirut.
I agree that Israel's not going to run a DMZ all the way up to the Litani. They would either have to depopulate a huge area (including Tyre, which is a major city) or occupy it over a hostile population. Neither option is tenable politically or strategically, something I've been saying all over the place for weeks now. I think a 1-mile deep buffer is too shallow and that 5 miles is more likely. But either way the upshot's going to be a strip along the border cleared of people/structures, then warded with mines and (given Israel's technological expertise) other automated/remote defenses. They might well use it as a launch point for strikes as far north as the Litani (as well as up the Bekaa), but they won't try to establish any kind of permanent presence outside of the zone. I think they will maintain that buffer zone, though, until Lebanon gets its act together and shuts down Hezballah as a military force.
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