Sunday, August 27, 2006

EIU: Lebanon GDP to fall by 10% in 2006

The Daily Star reports,
A London-based research center said Lebanon's Gross Domestic Product will fall by 10 percent in 2006 and expects a reduced current account deficit of $4.8 billion this year... .

Although the Economist Intelligence Unit expects a settlement to be reached, the country's prospects are even more uncertain than previously. The obstacles preventing the current government from engaging in effective policymaking will grow, and its stability could yet be endangered by the downside risks associated with the conflict... .
Prior to this fiasco, some Lebanese political parties waged a relentless (and justifiable) political campaign against the Future Movement for accumulating $35 billion worth of debt during the fifteen years of post-war reconstruction. Today, in a matter of one month, as a result of the irresponsible actions of one party, Lebanon's GDP has shrunk by 10%. Akh! Aaaaaaaaaaakh!

Need I say more? Is this where we all want our country to be?

Update - Hizballah Reconstruction Efforts:

The Financial Times, AP and other news services published articles concerning Hizballah's reconstruction efforts in Harek Hreik (the area of Beirut that was hit hardest by the Israeli Air Force).

Apparently, 1,000 volunteer engineers an architects are taking part in this rather impressive effort under the umbrella of an organization called Jihad el a3mar (literally, The Construction Jihad), which was originally launched following Israel's futile 1996 military adventure, "Grapes of Wrath," which led to the downfall of then Israeli PM Shimon Perez.

Funding, according to a representative of that organization, comes from private donations, as opposed to Iran. Kassem Allaik, head of Jihad el a3mar told the Financial Times that "each Hizballah association is self-financed and relies on individual donations from sympathisers."

Mr. Allaik went on to say that "We help build a society of resistance... . Our aim is to create conditions so people can stay on their land to confront the enemy."

----

Several comments concerning these efforts. The first concerns credibility. Mr. Allaik tells us that his organization does not get funding from Iran. I find that assertion hard to believe because Hizballah's credibility suffered tremendously as a result of its lies concerning the source of its weaponry.

Prior to the war, Nasrallah and most of Hizballah's top brass insisted repeatedly to the Lebanese public that they did not receive military material from Iran, or any other form of military support, for that matter. I remember watching a Kalam el Nass show, where one of Hizballah's MPs used the Maronites' relationship with the Vatican to describe Hizbalah's relationship with Tehran - I believe it was MP Ali Amar. Now if those public assertions did not turn out to be blatant lies, I simply do not know what is a lie anymore.

During the month-long war, Turkish authorities refused to allow an Iranian aircraft to fly into its airspace because the pilot would not land his aircraft in Turkey to be searched (it is important to note here that subsequent aircraft flying from Tehran to Damascus did land in Turkey, and after being searched were found to be carrying humanitarian aid). According to press reports, that particular plane was filled with silk-worm surface-to-ship missiles of the kind used to damage an Israeli ship off Lebanese shores. Moreover, numerous Hizballah fighters interviewed by Western journalists have claimed to have received training from the Iranian Revolutionary Guard during "business" trips to Iran.

Therefore, thanks to these blatant lies emanating from the Hizballah leadership, I find that I cannot take Mr. Allaik for his word. How naive of me to think, at one point in time, that I should believe these men because they were "men of the cloth."

The second point I would like to make concerning Kassem Allaik, is that irrespective of his source of funding and his motivation (which I will get back to in a minute) the work that he and his men are doing is impressive, noble, and, no doubt, much appreciated by the Shi'ite population. However, these men should not forget that once people have roofs over their heads, the inhabitants will need to sustain themselves and their families economically. That means that they will need well-paying jobs that only a vibrant economy can afford them.

I very much doubt Hizballah's ability to create such a reality. Rather, if anything, Hizballah's mere existence in Lebanon has ensured that the country's economic performance has failed to achieve anything near its potential over the past 15 years.

As for the motivation of these men's work. In Allaik's own words, "
Our aim is to create conditions so people can stay on their land to confront the enemy... ." One can decipher from this statement that the sole purpose Hizballah has in mind for its people is to stay on their land merely to "confront the enemy." In other words, staying on their land is simply not sufficient in and of itself.

Well, if that is the case, then I advise the guys working for Jihad el a3mar to build straw buildings for their people because it looks like we're going to be experiencing a lot more these wars in the near future.

Straw houses are easy to destroy, but they're also easily and cheaply rebuilt.

7 comments:

Lirun said...

all the more reason to continue our efforts to communicate and dig our tunnels of contact..

once our myths crumble and peace emerges the GDP fall will be just an annoying memory..

forever optimistic

lirun
telaviv
www.emspeace.blogspot.com

gdamiani said...

What about the Patriotic struggle – of all the so-called patriotic groups – to free Lebanese land ? Over and above were is the Lebanese government effort in the reconstruction effort (which by the way in the case of Jihad al A'amar is not restricted to Shiia as your article implies – "no doubt, much appreciated by the Shi'ite population") ? As before as always – from the so-called Lebanese elites – long live the shopping centre... and Paris. Hear no evil, see no evil !

As far as credibility goes this piece does not help either "According to press reports, the plane was filled with silk-worm surface-to-ship missiles of the kind used to damage an Israeli ship off Lebanese shores." Press reports indeed the same that reported about Iraq's WMD.

A footnote. The existence of Hibz Allah derive from the historic abandonment by the central government of the South and the inherent and pervasive "class" racism that prevails vis-a-vis the downrotten southerner, and this span far more than the past 15 years. In other words the Hizb Allah is "your" baby.

Raja said...

g damiani,

to say that jihad al a'amar is working for all of Lebanon is similar in tone to the ridiculous claim by Hizballah that Lebanese from all faiths are welcome to join it and fight the Israelis. I'll stop there.

As for your "credibility" issue, please... why didn't the iranian plane land despite the fact that subsequent planes had no problems doing so. You see, the entire world came out against the American government when it trumped up the WMD case, however Turkey was involved in this case. Another thing: Hizballah officials, during the war, came out and said it straight out: "We get armed by the Iranians just like how the Israelis get armed by the americans." Ooops! Talk about a major U Turn... except the officials, as always, used "Israel" to justify their lie, and hence got away with it.

And finally, please spare me the "down-trodden" bull-crap. Some of the most powerfull elements of Lebanon's commercial class today are Shi'a. Have you been to Lebanon lately? Verdun 730, Verdun 732, Concorde, half the appartments in Ramlet el Bayda, Sa2eyt el Janzeer, and more. C'mon man! Are you blind???

gdamiani said...

Allow me a quick answer, though I understand this is not a forum

1. Well Lebanese of all faiths are part of the struggle at all level as well documented – though not enough – even of foreign medias.

2. It is down-rotten and the south has always been historically abandoned by the central government. That some (even a lot of) Shi'ias are rich does not change this basic fact. Indeed I don't recall a lot of Lebanese strolling in Portemilio, Rimal or doing some happening-gathering in the city centre last year having joined in the 18 years struggle to free the south – part and parcel of the Sovereign state called – Lebanon !

Lirun said...

one thing is abundantly obvious.. both sides need to make peace with themselves as well as with their neighbours..

we have some social versions of the afrosyrian divide on our side of the border as well..

funny thing is - in some ways i believe it will be easier for us to make international peace than it will to appease our various respective factions..

wishing us all peace at all levels

lirun
telaviv
www.emspeace.blogspot.com

The Middle East News Addict said...

To g. Damiani

What is patriotic about this struggle? The Lebanese army is toothless and Sheikh Nasrallah admitted in an interview that what fell on Israel in this conflict is HALF of what they have. This means that a second conflict could not be bigger than this and would of course end HA. and the Result? let's see: Lebanon's GDP gonna fall by 10% this year and Israel's GDP gonna grow by 4.8% this year according to MOrgan Stanley... what can I say, the sweet taste of victory. Israel did not even break their budget. You want to fight Israel? Not at Lebanon's expense. There is no patriotism in running to your doom.

Lirun said...

sherri sherri sherri

as soon as i see a long comment - i know its you ;)

god bless ya