Wednesday, August 23, 2006

We Are Not Here To Stay: Look In The Mirror

Let's face it: from a realist point of view, Iran has power and is exercising it to the utmost.

Just when we thought the Italians pledged to head the UN military delegation into our southern borders, they rescinded that commitment today. If Iran was not powerful right now, would we all, including the Americans and Europeans, be waiting for that important date of August 31st, the day the UNSCR has scheduled a discussion on Iran's nuclear program? No.

Syrian President Assad can talk as much as he can, and Saudi and Egyptian press can retaliate for Assad's insults to their leadership as much as they can, the truth of the matter, none of these countries is a power to contend with.

I am sick of reading editorials instilling fear in us that the Syrian regime has a plan to re-occupy Lebanon. Again, let's face it: the Syrian regime is weak. For the past two years, the regime has been isolated from diplomatic relations, one of its major sources of income, namely its access to Lebanon, was closed, and many of those implicated in late Hariri's assassination had their accounts frozen. And if Syria really had power left to exercise, it would have intervened militarily during the one-month war on Lebanon.

Syria does not have power in its own right, it gets it from Iran. Long gone are the days when Syria during Hafez Assad's time was an Arab power, crucial in every way on the regional level. All what the Syrian regime has right now is a couple of crude speeches and relations with rogue fundamentalist groups (Al-Qaida) used as a threat against Lebanon and for destabilization purposes in Iraq.

The sad part is that Lebanon yet again has been chosen as the "convenient" place to pick the fights in. I read somewhere yesterday in a Lebanese newspaper someone asking why Israel hits a truck carrying arms to Hizbullah on Lebanese territories and not before it enters Lebanon. This is an important question.

It's as if there is an understanding amongst all powers that if Syria is hit, Iran will be pushed to respond. Remember a couple of months back Ahmadinejad's visit to Damascus? I believe this is when an Iranian-Syrian Entente was forged and a pledge was made by Iran to come to the rescue if Syria is hit or Hizbullah is threatened to disarm.

The fear to bring in Iran directly into the conflict shows that it's a power in its own right. Who wants a direct confrontation between Israel and Iran where a nuclear bomb becomes a solution Israel resorts to as a defensive mechanism? Arab countries would not like to intervene militarily in such a case, even when pushed to do so, and would consider it a failure that the Persians are directly fighting on their turf . The Americans would see their New Middle East Project crumbling even further with no chance of revival.

It just seems to me at times the whole situation in our part of the world is bleak. There is no true counterweight to Iran in the Arab world. Saudi Arabia has an arsenal of weapons and rockets that it never uses and when it wishes to, it usually relies on the Americans and British to fight their wars for them. Egypt and Jordan also have to contend with their internal threats, Islamic fundamentalism and what not. They have signed peace with Israel and perhaps do not have the capacity to face up to Iran.

So how more convenient could Lebanon be? Lebanon could keep Iran at bay; Iran can influence Hizbullah, fund Hamas, militarily back the Syrian regime, and intervene in the Iraqi war and peace equation: that's all better than inviting Iran inside the Arab House.

Our part of the world is a mess. I don't know where to start from. I guess it's this quality in us Arabs, where we like to eschew the difficult questions to a later time. It's time for the Arab leaders to look in the mirror and stop pretending that they are here to stay.

"Nobody knows how many rebellions, besides political rebellions, ferment in the masses of life which people earth."

7 comments:

Lirun said...

hi doha

wow thats pretty grim..

hoping your thoughts are mere paranoia.. but fearing there may be more to them than that and yet still hoping for peace..

lirun
telaviv
www.emspeace.blogspot.com

Aaron said...

Bravo on your insight. That's all I can say. Fortunately, it doesn't look like any side really wants to rush back to the state of chaos we had before. However, if the UN keeps dragging it's feet or is scared by Syria (why?) -- it will gradually slip back into another bloody hell.

Maggie said...

One can only hope that there is a possibility that Lebanon is allowed to live in peace. Her real enemies are Iran and Syria. As a concerned Australian with Christian Lebanese friends (they are a strong presence in my parish), I hope that it is possible to disarm Nazirellah. It is the only way for peace to come to Lebanon.

At one point in time the Christians were in the majority in Lebabon, but the Islamists have proved themselves to be a foe of anyone who refuses to be subjugated to their will. Amongst the people I have met is a woman whose parents were Armenian. She remembered the time that the family lived in Lebanon, during a past war, and she spoke about the constant fear of being bombed. She, and her friends continue to feel afraid when it comes to entering a suburb here in Sydney that is dominated by a mosque. To these women it is a very real fear. It tells me more about the horrible situation that existed than anything that has been on the news lately.

I remain concerned that the numbers of alleged civilians killed in Lebanon has been inflated. I would suggest that the figure should be at least halved. However, the deaths of civilians in a time of war is regrettable. The problem with the latest skirmish is that avoiding civilians was not always possible. I have also checked out how Hezbollah have made up various stories such as the hit on ambulances outside of Qana. What is certain in the story, is that the ambulance was not hit by the Israelis. The hole in the roof was not made by an Israeli rocket. The most logical explanation of this story is that the ambulance crew lied and that the purpose of the lie was to set up Israel to take the fall for a false war crime.

Nazrellah remainse a scourge to the freedoms of the Lebanese people. He was making threatening statements prior to the outbreak of hostilities. Did he not claim that ordinary Lebanese were the tourists? Beware, this man wants to take over Lebanon so that Iran can impose Sharia upon the whole of the population, so that all who refuse to bow to Islam will be forced to be Dhimmis. Is this what you want for Lebanon?

No one wants war, except the hawks who see themselves as great military leaders. I cannot comment upon Israel was right or wrong in taking on Hezbollah over the illegal kidnapping of Israeli soldiers, and then lying about what happened. Nazirella deliberately engineered the situation with Israel so that the Israeli's had to retaliate and were put into a bad light.

The voice of the majority of Lebanese Arabs deserves to be heard too. You are providing that voice. Keep it up.

Lirun said...

norman.. did you really vote for bush?!

Lirun said...

where is that wizard when you need him..

;)

Unknown said...

The UN track is hopeless. The only way to avoid the next round of useless bloodshed is for the Lebanese and Israeli governments to be brave enough to start peace-talks, now.

Sadly, living in this region for so many years, I don't even dream of that as a plausible scenario.

Lirun said...

dimitry

whats going on buddy? you think a peace treaty is of no use to us?

im actually very happy that our jordanian and egyptian borders are secured through treaties and would very much dislike any worse alternative..

how sceptical can you possibly be?

lirun
telaviv
www.emspeace.blogspot.com