Aoun: The Fall Guy

An email I received from a friend:

I have been thinking. How much of what is currently transpiring in Lebanon is Aoun's fault? I know, the easiest thing to do in a situation like this is to find a fall-guy, but really: how much of this destruction and death lies squarely on Aoun's shoulders?

Let us look at the events over the past year and simplify everything into one linear chain of events. Let us take a look at the fact that the International Community apparently unanimously decided that Hizballah was to be disarmed when resolution 1559 was passed at the UN Security Council. Then, assume that the March 14 forces were given a specific amount of time to implement that resolution, which, again, manifested an almost unanimous international consensus. March 14 failed. Israel is now doing the job.

When you look back at the political developments in Lebanon ever since the late Hariri's assassination, what constituted the major stumbling block to March 14's initiatives? Was it not Aoun and the FPM?

Aoun prevented them from selecting a suitable replacement to Lahoud. Aoun formed an alliance with Hizballah to counter the majority. Aoun essentially took the opposition role to heart, and went with it all the way! He did so under the apparent assumption that Lebanon was out of troubled waters, and consequently, he could go back to business as usual - opposition and sectarian bickering.

I respect Aoun, and the positions he claims regarding the Lebanese state, and its appropriate role. However, couldn't Aoun have seen what now appears so clear in hind sight? Couldn't he and his advisors see that if the Lebanese political elite, in unison, did not pressure Hizballah to disarm peacefully, the Israelis would do so, and destroy everything we built over the past decade and a half in the process?

All I see from this (admitedly narrow) angle of looking at Lebanon, is that Aoun holds a significant responsibility for all the costs in blood and treasure that Lebanon is bearing as I write this e-mail. If Aoun wants to blame Hariri for the $30 billion of debt he accumulated over the past 10 years, then I will blame Aoun for the $10 billion in damages and losses that Lebanon will suffer this year alone, as well as all the loss in lives - which have exceeded 70 thus far.

For the past year I have looked at the General with a kind of hope. Friends tried to tell me he was being manipulated and he was a political nincompoop. But now, I look back, and ask: how could he not have seen this coming? You would think that someone in his shoes would be a little more politically savvy!

A strong counter argument could be that even if Aoun sided with March 14, Hizballah would never have disarmed, and any attempt at doing so, would have led us to a much more destructive civil war. There is a very powerful truth to that statement, however, imagine how different the dynamics of Lebanese politics would have been had we elected a more powerful and legitimate President who tagged the line of March 14 regarding Hizballah. I believe that, at the very least, some positive steps could have been taken - steps that may have prevented what is currently tanspiring in our Lebanon.

It is clear that the majority commited serious mistakes in dealing with Aoun. Were these mistakes worth the destruction and blood that we are experiencing today? Couldn't Aoun have waited until the elite had dealt with Hizballah before he started his "business as usual" opposition? I don't know.

Aoun: fall guy. The picture is probably much more complex, however his behavior over the past year have made labeling him as such so much easier.

"Nobody knows how many rebellions, besides political rebellions, ferment in the masses of life which people earth."