Saturday, July 15, 2006

Aoun: The Fall Guy

An email I received from a friend:

I have been thinking. How much of what is currently transpiring in Lebanon is Aoun's fault? I know, the easiest thing to do in a situation like this is to find a fall-guy, but really: how much of this destruction and death lies squarely on Aoun's shoulders?

Let us look at the events over the past year and simplify everything into one linear chain of events. Let us take a look at the fact that the International Community apparently unanimously decided that Hizballah was to be disarmed when resolution 1559 was passed at the UN Security Council. Then, assume that the March 14 forces were given a specific amount of time to implement that resolution, which, again, manifested an almost unanimous international consensus. March 14 failed. Israel is now doing the job.

When you look back at the political developments in Lebanon ever since the late Hariri's assassination, what constituted the major stumbling block to March 14's initiatives? Was it not Aoun and the FPM?

Aoun prevented them from selecting a suitable replacement to Lahoud. Aoun formed an alliance with Hizballah to counter the majority. Aoun essentially took the opposition role to heart, and went with it all the way! He did so under the apparent assumption that Lebanon was out of troubled waters, and consequently, he could go back to business as usual - opposition and sectarian bickering.

I respect Aoun, and the positions he claims regarding the Lebanese state, and its appropriate role. However, couldn't Aoun have seen what now appears so clear in hind sight? Couldn't he and his advisors see that if the Lebanese political elite, in unison, did not pressure Hizballah to disarm peacefully, the Israelis would do so, and destroy everything we built over the past decade and a half in the process?

All I see from this (admitedly narrow) angle of looking at Lebanon, is that Aoun holds a significant responsibility for all the costs in blood and treasure that Lebanon is bearing as I write this e-mail. If Aoun wants to blame Hariri for the $30 billion of debt he accumulated over the past 10 years, then I will blame Aoun for the $10 billion in damages and losses that Lebanon will suffer this year alone, as well as all the loss in lives - which have exceeded 70 thus far.

For the past year I have looked at the General with a kind of hope. Friends tried to tell me he was being manipulated and he was a political nincompoop. But now, I look back, and ask: how could he not have seen this coming? You would think that someone in his shoes would be a little more politically savvy!

A strong counter argument could be that even if Aoun sided with March 14, Hizballah would never have disarmed, and any attempt at doing so, would have led us to a much more destructive civil war. There is a very powerful truth to that statement, however, imagine how different the dynamics of Lebanese politics would have been had we elected a more powerful and legitimate President who tagged the line of March 14 regarding Hizballah. I believe that, at the very least, some positive steps could have been taken - steps that may have prevented what is currently tanspiring in our Lebanon.

It is clear that the majority commited serious mistakes in dealing with Aoun. Were these mistakes worth the destruction and blood that we are experiencing today? Couldn't Aoun have waited until the elite had dealt with Hizballah before he started his "business as usual" opposition? I don't know.

Aoun: fall guy. The picture is probably much more complex, however his behavior over the past year have made labeling him as such so much easier.

"Nobody knows how many rebellions, besides political rebellions, ferment in the masses of life which people earth."


lostbird said...

Aoun couldn't have been so confident if he wasn't supported by a major part of the christians in Lebanon.

I simply wonder if these people are realizing now how blind they've been.

Anonymous said...

Don't you fucking realize this is NOT THE TIME for such stupid and useless polemic ?

GROW UP FOR GOD's SAKE. Our country is burning and you wanna score political points.

AbdulKarim said...

Please stop this debate now. Its not the right time. It will only add sectarian fuel to the current situation. It started to take a sectarian tone from the first comment. Please, please, please, Raja, Doha, or whomever the administrator is, delete the whole post.

P.S. I'm anti-Aoun

Vox said...

Let's be frank here. I consider Aoun to be the biggest idiot on the Christian but I also don't think that the presidency should go to a Hariri lackey. Note that the FM-PSP never gave the name of the candidate they favoured, so they are not innocent as well when it comes to Lahoud.

Doha said...

This blog is a public forum. I'm not deleting anything.

Anonymous said...

This post is spot on imho. Whoever wrote the email is an astute observer. However, show any one, any god damn one of them without their faults and stupidities.

Jos said...

It's not the time for fierce debates, I agree. But it's a 100% accurate analysis.

libnanews said...

they are allll the same:

if the hezbollah wasnt present in the government, all lebanon wouldnt be blamed

so blaming one or another wont serve

it s time to save lebanon!!! not to talk on disunifying stupid talks

libnanews said...

and now the war is expanding

syria has just been bombarded now

Anonymous said...

Before you blame Aoun, did you read the Cabinet Statement (bayan wizari) that supported the right for resistance? What did Hariri do to disarm Hezbollah? At every given opportuniy he said that he "protects" it. So if you don't mind... Aoun was and is an idiot, but don't go crazy.

Anonymous said...

this is bullshit, and this is exactly what isarael wants, us turing on each other. all we know in times of crisis is to look for others to blame. so thank u very much for serving israel's purposes!!

Anonymous said...

Get a grip people. What's wrong with someone voicing their opinion? When the US and the UK went into Iraq there were many dissenters. There is ABSOLUTELY nothing wrong with someone stating their beliefs and/or analyses of the situation. It's ok to criticize. It's always beneficial to hear other's opinions. It's called democracy you know. And I thought we were a democracy! Come on loosen up a bit.

Anonymous said...

doha, i am so glad you are posting this blog! from an outsider looking in, i can only say this - don't feel that lebanon is responsible for what israel is doing. it's not fair to lebanon - the whole world knows this. they are operating in aggression - now against syria - in a very coordinated, very planned way. the idea that this is a last-minute offensive based on 2 soldiers is ridiculous.

if you can help it - please don't spend too much time wondering "what did we do?" sadly - i feel you are a pawn in the US/israel's bigger plan - its aims toward iran and syria... and you were the bait. it's sad, but i think, true.

the whole bullshit re: lebanon's fault for hezbollah - if not for hezbollah, israel would still be occupying southern lebanon. hezbollah is demonized but was not wrong - at least not then.

i pray for you, your family, your friends. my heart bleeds for lebanon.

Joe said...


"Update: Most European countries and the U.S. are arranging for the evacuation of their nationals. What does that mean? Worst things are to come. Allah yistor!"

Can you translate "Allah yistor" please?

march14yuppi said...

Hey, march 14 yuppi,
what to you so long to blame the failing of your government on THE ONLY LEADER NOT IN THE GOVERNMENT.

Your failed up government included HIZBALLAH minsters, and LA7OUD ministers but not Aoun ministers who went instead to the opposition (want me to look up references for that?

and when the stupid government fails and shit hits the fan who's fault is that? Aoun's ?
What kind of f***ed up login is that?

Hey march 14 fangirl,

> what constituted the major stumbling block to March 14's initiatives? Was it not Aoun and the FPM?

I'll tell you what you.
The fact that they made a deal with Hizballah and HAD BAHYA HARIRI SISTER OF RAFFIC HARIRI run on the same list as hizballah. Remember the south elections?

The fact that they made a deal with Hizballah so that hizballah votes for them in baabda 3aley ... remember the Mnt Lebanon elections?

the fact that they had to repay the deal by ELECTING HIZBALLAH's NUMBER ONE ALLY CORRUPT NABIH BERRY as head of the parliment.
Remember who did NOT vote for PRO HIZBALLAH nabih berry????? let me remember was it Hariri block? ... No was it .... was it jumblat block hummm no was it hizballah HELL NO! It was AOUN (and LF) who did NOT vote for pro Hizballah berry as HEAD of our parliment.

Want me to look up references for you ? Did you forget 2005 that f****ing fast?

Hey march 14th naive girl,

> Aoun prevented them from selecting a suitable replacement to Lahoud.
I can as easilly arguy that they prevented Aoun from replacing Lahoud which would bring us to the same stupid debate.
March 14th wants a majority in the parliment, a majority in the government and the presidency. Fine ... great ... They have a silly thing stopping them called the frigging lebanese constitution. Which requires two thirds to kick him out.
Aoun says he would back them up to get rid of lahoud if he can take his place. They refuse.
they suggest Aoun backs them up without taking his place he refuses.

Whos fault is it?
Aoun's ? Well yes to the brain washed march 1th yuppi that you are of course it can only be his fault.
the FPM would shout it's match 14th fault.
Any one with half a brain can see they were both as greedy and they both hold the blame.

You kept saying since Aoun came back all he wants is to become president, and your stupid party couldn't take that chance to put him instead of La7oud when he was on YOUR side his supporters chanting among yours.

Finally, the new readers here may not see through your little games but old time readers know you all too well.
You are just one of those Aoun bashers who blames every single little failing of your government on him ...
Want me to lookup the references for that ? Or can you at least navigate your own blog and do taht ?

The bombs are falling and what are you trying to do in comfy US of A ? Trying to find a suitable fall guy ?

Aoun has made tons of mistakes as did every other polititian but to blame this whole mess on him is too low even for your standards fa marr'ilna yeha ma3lesh.

FaiLaSooF said...

I couldn't agree mre with what you said!

I've always respected Aoun and the FPM through out their struggle against Syrian occupation. But ever since he came back to Lebanon, I really believe he made very wrong choices. Some people would argue that the majoriy movement didn;t give him a chance, but after all, he is Aoun, the man who was NEVER EVER afraid of being alone against all the odds. I feel sad that he chose to be a political man like the rest of Lebanon politician rather than the LEADER taht all of Lebanon was waiting for.....

Curso de Auditor√É­a said...

stop the israel invassion
stop war

MERKOVA said...

Israel will BOMB beirut to ashes. There will be no PEACE until the hezbalabala(camel screwing homos from iran)will leave lebanon.

The Israelis will pound your asses until its red and bloody.

The good will always overcome evil.

Madhav Indian said...

Civilian death toll in lebanon crossed 200 in 11 days of Israeli action forced by acts of hezbollah. Most of those killed are from communiteis and localities who are first to celeberate massacre of Isarelis in front of TV camera. hizbollah dont live in canttonements , they live in dense populated areas just to ensure civilian deaths . Still so much of hue and cry??? 200 ppl were murdered in my city in a matter of 11 minutes. All for being Hindu and world is silent !! why am i even reading news about lebanon when mumbai has suffered a massacre of GENUINE civilians (not of cheerleaders of terrorisrm , vote base of hisbolah, masqurading as civilians .) Frankly Isarel's brutal and justified response, which causes pain to those animals who celeberated news of massacre of Hindus in mumbai , gives lots of solace to me.Carry on Israel but leave christian and druze area.