Saturday, July 15, 2006

Aoun: The Fall Guy

An email I received from a friend:

I have been thinking. How much of what is currently transpiring in Lebanon is Aoun's fault? I know, the easiest thing to do in a situation like this is to find a fall-guy, but really: how much of this destruction and death lies squarely on Aoun's shoulders?

Let us look at the events over the past year and simplify everything into one linear chain of events. Let us take a look at the fact that the International Community apparently unanimously decided that Hizballah was to be disarmed when resolution 1559 was passed at the UN Security Council. Then, assume that the March 14 forces were given a specific amount of time to implement that resolution, which, again, manifested an almost unanimous international consensus. March 14 failed. Israel is now doing the job.

When you look back at the political developments in Lebanon ever since the late Hariri's assassination, what constituted the major stumbling block to March 14's initiatives? Was it not Aoun and the FPM?

Aoun prevented them from selecting a suitable replacement to Lahoud. Aoun formed an alliance with Hizballah to counter the majority. Aoun essentially took the opposition role to heart, and went with it all the way! He did so under the apparent assumption that Lebanon was out of troubled waters, and consequently, he could go back to business as usual - opposition and sectarian bickering.

I respect Aoun, and the positions he claims regarding the Lebanese state, and its appropriate role. However, couldn't Aoun have seen what now appears so clear in hind sight? Couldn't he and his advisors see that if the Lebanese political elite, in unison, did not pressure Hizballah to disarm peacefully, the Israelis would do so, and destroy everything we built over the past decade and a half in the process?

All I see from this (admitedly narrow) angle of looking at Lebanon, is that Aoun holds a significant responsibility for all the costs in blood and treasure that Lebanon is bearing as I write this e-mail. If Aoun wants to blame Hariri for the $30 billion of debt he accumulated over the past 10 years, then I will blame Aoun for the $10 billion in damages and losses that Lebanon will suffer this year alone, as well as all the loss in lives - which have exceeded 70 thus far.

For the past year I have looked at the General with a kind of hope. Friends tried to tell me he was being manipulated and he was a political nincompoop. But now, I look back, and ask: how could he not have seen this coming? You would think that someone in his shoes would be a little more politically savvy!

A strong counter argument could be that even if Aoun sided with March 14, Hizballah would never have disarmed, and any attempt at doing so, would have led us to a much more destructive civil war. There is a very powerful truth to that statement, however, imagine how different the dynamics of Lebanese politics would have been had we elected a more powerful and legitimate President who tagged the line of March 14 regarding Hizballah. I believe that, at the very least, some positive steps could have been taken - steps that may have prevented what is currently tanspiring in our Lebanon.

It is clear that the majority commited serious mistakes in dealing with Aoun. Were these mistakes worth the destruction and blood that we are experiencing today? Couldn't Aoun have waited until the elite had dealt with Hizballah before he started his "business as usual" opposition? I don't know.

Aoun: fall guy. The picture is probably much more complex, however his behavior over the past year have made labeling him as such so much easier.

"Nobody knows how many rebellions, besides political rebellions, ferment in the masses of life which people earth."

14 comments:

Anonymous said...

Aoun couldn't have been so confident if he wasn't supported by a major part of the christians in Lebanon.

I simply wonder if these people are realizing now how blind they've been.

Anonymous said...

Don't you fucking realize this is NOT THE TIME for such stupid and useless polemic ?

GROW UP FOR GOD's SAKE. Our country is burning and you wanna score political points.
YOU ARE PATHETIC

AbdulKarim said...

Please stop this debate now. Its not the right time. It will only add sectarian fuel to the current situation. It started to take a sectarian tone from the first comment. Please, please, please, Raja, Doha, or whomever the administrator is, delete the whole post.

P.S. I'm anti-Aoun

Anonymous said...

Let's be frank here. I consider Aoun to be the biggest idiot on the Christian but I also don't think that the presidency should go to a Hariri lackey. Note that the FM-PSP never gave the name of the candidate they favoured, so they are not innocent as well when it comes to Lahoud.

Anonymous said...

This post is spot on imho. Whoever wrote the email is an astute observer. However, show any one, any god damn one of them without their faults and stupidities.

Josy said...

It's not the time for fierce debates, I agree. But it's a 100% accurate analysis.

Anonymous said...

they are allll the same:

if the hezbollah wasnt present in the government, all lebanon wouldnt be blamed

so blaming one or another wont serve

it s time to save lebanon!!! not to talk on disunifying stupid talks

Anonymous said...

and now the war is expanding

syria has just been bombarded now

Anonymous said...

Before you blame Aoun, did you read the Cabinet Statement (bayan wizari) that supported the right for resistance? What did Hariri do to disarm Hezbollah? At every given opportuniy he said that he "protects" it. So if you don't mind... Aoun was and is an idiot, but don't go crazy.

Anonymous said...

this is bullshit, and this is exactly what isarael wants, us turing on each other. all we know in times of crisis is to look for others to blame. so thank u very much for serving israel's purposes!!

Anonymous said...

Get a grip people. What's wrong with someone voicing their opinion? When the US and the UK went into Iraq there were many dissenters. There is ABSOLUTELY nothing wrong with someone stating their beliefs and/or analyses of the situation. It's ok to criticize. It's always beneficial to hear other's opinions. It's called democracy you know. And I thought we were a democracy! Come on loosen up a bit.

Anonymous said...

doha, i am so glad you are posting this blog! from an outsider looking in, i can only say this - don't feel that lebanon is responsible for what israel is doing. it's not fair to lebanon - the whole world knows this. they are operating in aggression - now against syria - in a very coordinated, very planned way. the idea that this is a last-minute offensive based on 2 soldiers is ridiculous.

if you can help it - please don't spend too much time wondering "what did we do?" sadly - i feel you are a pawn in the US/israel's bigger plan - its aims toward iran and syria... and you were the bait. it's sad, but i think, true.

the whole bullshit re: lebanon's fault for hezbollah - if not for hezbollah, israel would still be occupying southern lebanon. hezbollah is demonized but was not wrong - at least not then.

i pray for you, your family, your friends. my heart bleeds for lebanon.

Anonymous said...

Doha,

"Update: Most European countries and the U.S. are arranging for the evacuation of their nationals. What does that mean? Worst things are to come. Allah yistor!"

Can you translate "Allah yistor" please?

FaiLaSooF said...

I couldn't agree mre with what you said!

I've always respected Aoun and the FPM through out their struggle against Syrian occupation. But ever since he came back to Lebanon, I really believe he made very wrong choices. Some people would argue that the majoriy movement didn;t give him a chance, but after all, he is Aoun, the man who was NEVER EVER afraid of being alone against all the odds. I feel sad that he chose to be a political man like the rest of Lebanon politician rather than the LEADER taht all of Lebanon was waiting for.....