Sunday, July 16, 2006

Projections And The Wild Card

From Stratfor.com

So far, there has been only one reported airstrike on a Syrian target. Both Israel and Syria were quick to deny this.

What is interesting is that it was the Syrians who insisted very publicly that no such attack took place. The Syrians are clearly trying to avoid a situation in which they are locked into a confrontation with Israel. Israel might well think this is the time to have it out with Syria as well, but Syria is trying very hard not to give Israel casus belli. In addition, Syria is facilitating the movement of Westerners out of Lebanon, allowing them free transit. They are trying to signal that they are being cooperative and nonaggressive.

...While Syria does not want to get hit and will not make overt moves, so long as the Syrians cannot guarantee supplies will not reach Hezbollah or that Hezbollah won't be given sanctuary in Syria, Israel cannot complete its mission of shattering Hezbollah and withdrawing. They could be drawn into an Iraq-like situation that they absolutely don't want. Israel is torn. On the one hand, it wants to crush Hezbollah, and that requires total isolation. On the other hand, it does not want the Syrian regime to fall. What comes after would be much worse from Israel's point of view.

This is the inherent problem built into Israel's strategy, and what gives Hezbollah some hope... No matter how many roads are destroyed, Israel won't be able to prevent major Hezbollah formations moving across the border. If they do attack Syria and crush al Assad's government, Hezbollah could come out of this stronger than ever.

Judging from the airstrikes in the past 24 hours, it would appear Israel is trying to solve the problem tactically, by degrading Lebanese transport facilities. That could increase the effectiveness of the strategy, but in the end cannot be sufficient. We continue to think Israel will choose not to attack Syria directly and therefore, while the invasion will buy time, it will not solve the problem. Hezbollah certainly expects to be badly hurt, but it does not seem to expect to be completely annihilated. We are guessing, but our guess is that they are reading Israel's views on Syria and are betting that, in the long run, they will come out stronger. Of course, Israel knows this and therefore may have a different plan for Syria. At any rate, this is the great unknown in this campaign...

In the meantime, that Israel has not sent major ground units into Lebanon yet (lots of small units are operating there) but is taking rocket attacks and hunkering down indicates it does not plan to act piecemeal. If we were to guess, the main thrust would likely begin late Sunday night or Monday morning. They will be ready by then. Of course we are not privy to Israeli operations, so it could be delayed 24-48 hours to give forces a chance to gear up. But given the Hezbollah bombardment, the Israelis are under pressure to move sooner rather than later.

We are in a relatively "quiet" spell. Both sides have made their strategic decisions. Both know how the war will be fought. Hezbollah thinks it can give as good as it will get for a while, and will ultimately be able to regroup for a guerrilla war against the Israelis. Israel thinks it can immobilize and crush Hezbollah quickly and decisively and will be able to withdraw. Both sides know Syria is the wild card, and neither is quite sure how it will play its hand. One side is wrong in its expectations about the outcome. That's the nature of war.
Addendum: Peaceful Demonstration in Montreal, Canada today, Sunday July 16 at 11:00AM – PEEL AND RENE LEVESQUE

"Nobody knows how many rebellions, besides political rebellions, ferment in the masses of life which people earth."

12 comments:

Lazarus said...

Please, all who are organizing rallies: contact the press. There was one in San Francisco today: AP, NBC, etc. were there and covered the event.

programmer craig said...

Lazarus, don't know about the others, but the pics from the one in San Francisco looked exactly like every other anti-US/anti-Israel protest in the last 30 years. I wouldn't bother, in the US, unless it makes you feel better. We've been seeing that stuff so much the last 3 years that we don't even register it anymore.

Telemaque said...

Worse from Israel's point of view? Worse from everyone's. How would the Lebanese like a Muslim Brotherhood ruled Syria? How would Jordan like it? How would Iraq like it? How would Turkey like it?

francois said...

haifa hit
(not the singer ... )

seen on www.libnanews.com

the israelian might not allow the foreign power to evacuate their citizens, arafat used that way to escape last time

Suzanne said...

The problem with those peace rallies is that they attract also those people who like to expose their antisemitic and antiamerican feelings to the press and world.

I hope the peace rallies organised today, will be a call for sense towards Hezbollah, Israel and the Lebanese government. In that order; as I believe it should be in that order.

But I am afraid they will be ending up in the usual "Israel is baaaad" slogans.

Suzanne said...

BTW, interesting analysis by stratfor.

T. said...

Israel: Hizballah rockets are Iranian made with Syrian technology.

Iran: We are not shipping missiles to Hizballah.

Syria: Peace be with you all.

Iran: If you hit Syria you will bear the consequences.

Israel: We did not hit Syrian soil.

Syria: Israel did not hit Syrian soil.

All: Let's all kiss and make up. Now, where were we in Lebanon?

Suha: That is the most disgusting symphony I have ever heard!

T. said...

Tfooo!

T. said...

Shmulik said:
I am sorry to say but from Israel it seems only violance can make you do what you have to do. Where were you the past 6 years??

Well, what do you know: UNDER SYRIAN OCCUPATION!

Surprised? You shouldn't be since it was US approved and Israel was more than happy to have Syria petrolling its neighbor. Come to think of it, under this logic, shouldn't the IDF be bombing Israel?

T. said...

Shmulik,

You are very mistaken about Israel or the US "wanting" Syria in Lebanon.

I refer you to Gary Gambill, a Hizballah-hater and a fuzzy lover of Israel, so you have a lot in common with him. Coming from this perspective, here is something he wrote before the end of Syrian occupation - no doubt a contribution to the Syria Accountability Act campaign of 2003. I refer you specifically to the section entitled "Why does the occupation continue?".

You will see that even in the opinion of Gambill your government and the US were complicit with Syria over the occupation in Lebanon (it is a well known fact, but I suppose propaganda in your country is rather strong). Why this changed after Israel withdrew from southern Lebanon is another story.

While i know full well that you were under syrian occupation, I also know that for many months you are not.

Then you should also know that apart from the fact that "many more months" fade in comparison to 30 years of havoc (in which Isreal played a major part), those "many more months" so graciously granted were riddled with assassinations, bombings, and very nice, systematic, and unprovoked incursions into our "sovereign" territory by a very fluffy Israeli army.

Anochi said...

Best analysis of the situation by
Robert Tracinski: “The War Comes to Us”: “If, in the face of repeated threats and provocation by an aggressive dictatorship, you refuse to go to war, the war will eventually come to you….” Read more at:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2006/07/the_war_comes_to_us.html

JohnAGJ said...

I see some possible hope for the future when this mess is all over with, but it doesn't help things now. If the Lebanese PM moves against Hezbollah in a meaningful way than Israel should ratchet things down or at least give him a hand. Until then I cannot blame them for trying to take the SOBs out. Of course the part that sucks is innocents on both sides are caught in the middle. I also mourn what thus far appears to be the failure of the Cedar Revolution, which I had very high hopes for. I yearn for the day when a free Lebanon and Israel can live side-by-side if not as friends, than at least not as enemies. Both countries have much to offer the region and the world.