Sunday, July 16, 2006

Projections And The Wild Card


So far, there has been only one reported airstrike on a Syrian target. Both Israel and Syria were quick to deny this.

What is interesting is that it was the Syrians who insisted very publicly that no such attack took place. The Syrians are clearly trying to avoid a situation in which they are locked into a confrontation with Israel. Israel might well think this is the time to have it out with Syria as well, but Syria is trying very hard not to give Israel casus belli. In addition, Syria is facilitating the movement of Westerners out of Lebanon, allowing them free transit. They are trying to signal that they are being cooperative and nonaggressive.

...While Syria does not want to get hit and will not make overt moves, so long as the Syrians cannot guarantee supplies will not reach Hezbollah or that Hezbollah won't be given sanctuary in Syria, Israel cannot complete its mission of shattering Hezbollah and withdrawing. They could be drawn into an Iraq-like situation that they absolutely don't want. Israel is torn. On the one hand, it wants to crush Hezbollah, and that requires total isolation. On the other hand, it does not want the Syrian regime to fall. What comes after would be much worse from Israel's point of view.

This is the inherent problem built into Israel's strategy, and what gives Hezbollah some hope... No matter how many roads are destroyed, Israel won't be able to prevent major Hezbollah formations moving across the border. If they do attack Syria and crush al Assad's government, Hezbollah could come out of this stronger than ever.

Judging from the airstrikes in the past 24 hours, it would appear Israel is trying to solve the problem tactically, by degrading Lebanese transport facilities. That could increase the effectiveness of the strategy, but in the end cannot be sufficient. We continue to think Israel will choose not to attack Syria directly and therefore, while the invasion will buy time, it will not solve the problem. Hezbollah certainly expects to be badly hurt, but it does not seem to expect to be completely annihilated. We are guessing, but our guess is that they are reading Israel's views on Syria and are betting that, in the long run, they will come out stronger. Of course, Israel knows this and therefore may have a different plan for Syria. At any rate, this is the great unknown in this campaign...

In the meantime, that Israel has not sent major ground units into Lebanon yet (lots of small units are operating there) but is taking rocket attacks and hunkering down indicates it does not plan to act piecemeal. If we were to guess, the main thrust would likely begin late Sunday night or Monday morning. They will be ready by then. Of course we are not privy to Israeli operations, so it could be delayed 24-48 hours to give forces a chance to gear up. But given the Hezbollah bombardment, the Israelis are under pressure to move sooner rather than later.

We are in a relatively "quiet" spell. Both sides have made their strategic decisions. Both know how the war will be fought. Hezbollah thinks it can give as good as it will get for a while, and will ultimately be able to regroup for a guerrilla war against the Israelis. Israel thinks it can immobilize and crush Hezbollah quickly and decisively and will be able to withdraw. Both sides know Syria is the wild card, and neither is quite sure how it will play its hand. One side is wrong in its expectations about the outcome. That's the nature of war.
Addendum: Peaceful Demonstration in Montreal, Canada today, Sunday July 16 at 11:00AM – PEEL AND RENE LEVESQUE

"Nobody knows how many rebellions, besides political rebellions, ferment in the masses of life which people earth."


Lazarus said...

Please, all who are organizing rallies: contact the press. There was one in San Francisco today: AP, NBC, etc. were there and covered the event.

programmer craig said...

Lazarus, don't know about the others, but the pics from the one in San Francisco looked exactly like every other anti-US/anti-Israel protest in the last 30 years. I wouldn't bother, in the US, unless it makes you feel better. We've been seeing that stuff so much the last 3 years that we don't even register it anymore.

stateroom said...

Artsy fartsy liberals like zis:
The Official Language for the European Union

The European Commission has just announced an agreement whereby English will be the official language of the European Union rather than German, which was the other possibility.

As part of the negotiations, the British Government conceded that English spelling had some room for improvement and has accepted a 5-year phase-in plan that would become known as "Euro-English."

In the first year, "s" will replace the soft "c." Sertainly, this will make the sivil servants jump with joy.

The hard "c" will be dropped in favour of "k." This should klear up konfusion, and keyboards kan have one less letter.

There will be growing publik enthusiasm in the sekond year when the troublesome "ph" will be replaced with "f." This will make words like fotograf 20% shorter.

In the 3rd year, publik akseptanse of the new spelling kan be expekted to reach the stage where! more komplikated changes are possible.

Governments will enkourage the removal of double letters which have always ben a deterent to akurate speling.

Also, al wil agre that the horibl mes of the silent "e" in the languag is disgrasful and it should go away.

By the 4th yer people wil be reseptiv to steps such as replasing "th" with "z" and "w" with "v."

During ze fifz yer, ze unesesary "o" kan be dropd from vords kontaining "ou" and after ziz fifz yer, ve vil hav a reil sensi bl riten styl.

Zer vil be no mor trubl or difikultis and evrivun vil find it ezi tu understand ech oza. Ze drem of a united urop vil finali kum tru.

Und efter ze fifz yer, ve vil al be speking German like zey vunted in ze forst plas.

If zis mad you smil, pleas pas on to oza pepl.

crosspatch said...

Seems to me that you guys should be demostrating against the government of Lebanon to do something, anything. Instead of watching their televisions and making speeches, maybe they should consider mobilizing the Army and taking control of the Southern area from Hezbollah.

The inaction of the Lebanese army is astounding. What do you have an army for anyway? Seems it is nothing more than a great waste of money.

Lebanon could solve this if it would act but instead it watches television and taps out blog posts.

stateroom said...

It`s 10 dollars per protester in the US i`m told.

Telemaque said...

Worse from Israel's point of view? Worse from everyone's. How would the Lebanese like a Muslim Brotherhood ruled Syria? How would Jordan like it? How would Iraq like it? How would Turkey like it?

Doha said...


I just read a blog post by a Lebanese-American, just like me, who lives in Beirut and has just decided to pack his bags and head to Damascus. It helps if you read it, perhaps then you'll understand things better:

Jad J said...

yes Doha, that blog is great!
lets not feel discouraged from achieving proper dialogue between average people without judging according to one's religion.

I actually am starting to believe that none of those posting junk on this blog are actually what ehy claim they are, i bet there are Palestinian Extremists, Syrians, Irani,Israeli Extremists and last but not least, Hizbullah, whom we all know their skills with internet hacking and Propaganda.

on the bright side, we are coordinating rallies with moderate people, i was even contacted by an israeli journalist to answer some sort of questions regarding what is really happening in lebanon.

thats all thanks to the work you started with Raja.

when this is over, we should have a gathering at DOWNTOWN Beirut in particular. :)

francois said...

haifa hit
(not the singer ... )

seen on

the israelian might not allow the foreign power to evacuate their citizens, arafat used that way to escape last time

box said...

doha, thanks for the link to your friend's blog. i am an outsider, too, but i empathize with your plight 110%. there are people across the world who are with you in spirit, even though it seems there's nothing we can do.

your friend's last statement describes the content of 90% of the posters here:

"there is no way I'll ever be able to feel comfortable with all of the rightwing, massacre apologists who pompously spout rhetoric at suffering people."

it's sad, but the fact. doha - this is your blog. you can delete whatever you want. you can designate a place for those who want to "create a dialogue," and make them stay there or block them (i think).

i run a site - the hardest thing for me to do was to take control of it. but - it's mine. propagandists use well-meaning people's free speech to inundate and control the conversation. this should not be their place to ruin - haven't they already ruined enough?

peace and safety to you, doha. thank you SO MUCH for this great blog.

Omer (israeli) said...

Hey Everyone,

I am really disapointed in Olmert that he didn't Take your PM's annocment as a basis for talks.
What i was thinking was this:
Isreal release lebanese prisoners, and saying that it is to support Siniora in his mission to control the south. The Hizbualla get what it wants and can relese the Isreali prisoners (all this done in a confidential deal). This way both Israel and Lebanon get peace, and prisoners. While both Israel and Hiz' take the credit.

To any of you how like to know what (most) Isreali think today:
Why don't Isreali want prisoner exchange? Why is this war with 90% voter support where as the war in 1982 was only with 50%?

1) The lebanese prisoners in jails, are considred by most israeli Hiz' activists or supporters.
2) In 1984 israel exchanged 80+ prisoners for three dead bodies, and one buisnes man kidnaped abroad.
3) The Hiz' declares its goal to kidnap more, in order to make further exchanges, advises the Hamas to do the same. This was considred in israel as Blackmail.
4) If israel exchanges prisinors it will only encourge more kidnaps in the future. Since they already learned that by Kidnaps they can press Israel.
5) The Hiz' fired rockets into Isreal 5 times since the withdraw in 2000. The israeli are already fed up with Hiz'. Some people in Israel are calling for a new buffer zone in south Lebanon.

Good morning, Stay safe.

Omer (israeli) said...

oops, the exchange of bodies was done in 2004 not 1984

Omer (israeli) said...

Please Everyone, Ignore the Stupid Isreali's here who patronize you. They are stupid and foolish, and full of revenge... sadly at the worng people. Besides the fact that revenge never did good to anyone.

Chanoch said...

Unfortunately we are the victims of the crazy politicians who run these countries.
If it was up to the "normal" people and not the army people, maybe all of this would have never happened.

Suzanne said...

The problem with those peace rallies is that they attract also those people who like to expose their antisemitic and antiamerican feelings to the press and world.

I hope the peace rallies organised today, will be a call for sense towards Hezbollah, Israel and the Lebanese government. In that order; as I believe it should be in that order.

But I am afraid they will be ending up in the usual "Israel is baaaad" slogans.

Suzanne said...

BTW, interesting analysis by stratfor.

alwayswatching said...

I have to ask, what are all of these for that you got from the US, esp. if you do have 70,000 troops that I keep reading about. I really like the guys on the snowmobiles at the top of the page.

Muxecoid said...

Anyway it's too late to attack Syria now.
הלך עכבר

Suha said...

Israel: Hizballah rockets are Iranian made with Syrian technology.

Iran: We are not shipping missiles to Hizballah.

Syria: Peace be with you all.

Iran: If you hit Syria you will bear the consequences.

Israel: We did not hit Syrian soil.

Syria: Israel did not hit Syrian soil.

All: Let's all kiss and make up. Now, where were we in Lebanon?

Suha: That is the most disgusting symphony I have ever heard!

Suha said...


Shmulik said...

Syrian technology- what an oxymoron.
maybe Syria and Iran should be punished and maybe indeed they will be. However, this does not absolve Lebanon from not even trying to confront Hizballah. Instead of explaining what Israel should do maybe think on what YOU can do??
I am sorry to say but from Israel it seems only violance can make you do what you have to do. Where were you the past 6 years??

Omer (israeli) said...

Shmulik, the point is that most people in this forum dont like Hizballah that much. Its every nation right to control their country fully. Not led by a mafia like cult.
But please remember that they also hate us. Rightfully, we are attacking their country. Think about it: if someone attacked israel, would you give a dam why?

As you see most people here are normal people, like you and me. they want to get on with their life. Its quite sad that good people pay the price.
But i guess that war, it's never fair. Good people always pay the price.

Suha said...

Shmulik said:
I am sorry to say but from Israel it seems only violance can make you do what you have to do. Where were you the past 6 years??

Well, what do you know: UNDER SYRIAN OCCUPATION!

Surprised? You shouldn't be since it was US approved and Israel was more than happy to have Syria petrolling its neighbor. Come to think of it, under this logic, shouldn't the IDF be bombing Israel?

Jad J said...

well yes syria should be hit, but dont expect the IDF to do it anytime soon... read these facts:

1- the syrian regime is so weak on the Popular level and there is so much dissent amongst the population that some of them are even praying for the IDF to bomb the regime so they could act.
2- But the majority in syria, the UNEDUCATED majority there are extremists themselves. So the reason USA and ISrael didnt attack Bashar yet is bcoz they dont want an extremist regime like Hamas to take charge.
3- the other opposition front in syria, The Educated Syrians, started something called "Spring of Damascus" (similar to "spring of Beirut" and "Spring of Prague" where the population overthrow the government with demonstrations only). But the regime persecuted them and threw them in jail. That was not long ago, now they operate from outside syria.
4- Lebanon and its Newspapers and media were fueling that "Damascus spring" and that is one of the reasons the Syrian regime assassinated those top lebanese newswriters, becoz their columns were reaching syrians, and they were in direct communication with the syrian EDUCATED opposition.

As a conclusion, what the IDF started now, delayed the opposition movement for several years, delayed our talks with Hizbullah to disarm peacefully (we have our ways to do so, at least no rockets wouldve been launched on israel) and we couldve toppled the syrian regime as well. Meanwhile, any attack on the syrian regime would bring a much much much extreme regime, backed with the uneducated population that can be easily controlled by religious figures similar to Nasrallah.

Shmulik said...

While i know full well that you were under syrian occupation, I also know that for many months you are not. Morever you have not even tried. Do you intend to talk Hizballah to death?? How many years this would take? how many Israelis should be murdered or kidnapped before you would do something??
You are very mistaken about Israel or the US "wanting" Syria in Lebanon. Let me remind youin 1982 we smashed the syrian army in lebanon and it was US led international pressure that has enabled you to throw off the syrian yoke.

benj said...

8 people killed in Haifa attack. Tel-Aviv is on the alert, resident warned about possiblity of the attack. IDF said they can not hit launchers effectivly because launchers shielded by civilian population still not evacuated from the south. My guess Lebanese civilian should leave in harry if there are any launchers nearby - IDF will run out of remaning patience very soon. Especially if Tel-Aviv or Jerusalem would be hit (and that is seems likly now). Or Haifa refinery which Hezbollah seems targeting.

Shmulik said...

Omer I am deeply sorry for civilians lives lost in Lebanon. However, if I had to choose between our or Lebanese civilians I am afraid you know the choice.
I care very much why people attack Israel- for example I support peace with Egypt even though they attackd us in 73. Don't you??

Oleg,Israel said...

Well this is fun.

Suha said...


You are very mistaken about Israel or the US "wanting" Syria in Lebanon.

I refer you to Gary Gambill, a Hizballah-hater and a fuzzy lover of Israel, so you have a lot in common with him. Coming from this perspective, here is something he wrote before the end of Syrian occupation - no doubt a contribution to the Syria Accountability Act campaign of 2003. I refer you specifically to the section entitled "Why does the occupation continue?".

You will see that even in the opinion of Gambill your government and the US were complicit with Syria over the occupation in Lebanon (it is a well known fact, but I suppose propaganda in your country is rather strong). Why this changed after Israel withdrew from southern Lebanon is another story.

While i know full well that you were under syrian occupation, I also know that for many months you are not.

Then you should also know that apart from the fact that "many more months" fade in comparison to 30 years of havoc (in which Isreal played a major part), those "many more months" so graciously granted were riddled with assassinations, bombings, and very nice, systematic, and unprovoked incursions into our "sovereign" territory by a very fluffy Israeli army.

mikealpha said...

I am not Lebanese or Israeli so I dont know the answer to the following 2 questions:
1) How many were killed or wounded in the Lebanese civil war and how much property damage was there ?
2) Could the Lebanese government and army (or that part of the government and army which is not sympathtic to hezballah or Syria)
have disarmed hezballah (missiles inclded) and moved them away from the southern border without another civil war ?

Jad J said...

Shmulik what suha means is the following:

in 1990s there was a status quo in lebanon, and Syria was occupying the majority of lebanese territory but did not control its entire political system. and the reason the syrians where not able to break this status quo by conquesring all lebanon is the fact that the Radical Right wing was very fortified and supported by israel, in addition, Syria was not alowed to fly airplanes above lebanese soil or else it will be shot down by the IAF.
but things changed in the war on iraq, Bush senior and Israel wanted to cut the support on iraq, and Bachar's big daddy, The cunning Hafez el Assad helped the americans in their war. in return, they offered him lebanon: he attacked the lebanese with ariplanes, and therefore they were overrun, and the israeli didnt move a finger to help (so spare me the "we were ur allies"), and since then, the syrians gained control of the lebanese Social, acadmeical, economical, political and military aspects of lebanon. They installed corrupted people in all levels, and intimidated the population in too many ways that i need I will dedicate a blog to that, a blog dedicated to ignorants in regional politics, to people who dont bother to read newspapers that do not share their views, rather rely on media such as CNN who is well known to be biased (Even the americans admit it).

But, for u to understand how the lebanese internal seen is booby trapped with political mines, lets try to find a case similar to the lebanese situation that u might find it easier to grasp and stop whining that we had 1- 6 years; 2- 1 year to remove hizbullah.

take the Iraqi situation, Saddam was hated from the population, he was a minority ruling the majority, but was ousted in a successful military operation.

Everything should be ok for now right?

Wrong, Saddam had 10 years to prepare his country for a similar case, to transform it to the blooddiest urban warefare in case he was defeated, and he was counting on making the americans think again about invading iraq due to that fact. BUT, the administration was fooled. They thought that if they brought Democracy, the population will not revolt and give them hard time.

Wrong again, proof: look at the news.

Now whats really happening in Iraq?
The majority of the Iraqi population want peace, but the minority who were bred on hatred, raised on "Hate the americans", "hate non-muslims", "hate the jews", "hate the other muslims" for 10 years and now they grew up and can carry guns, they are uneducated and controlled by people like nasrallah (muqtada Sader, Zarqawi, Ben Laden... and all the fuckers)

Why cant the independent Iraqi government backed by the mightiest military on earth finish off with the insurgents?
Welcome to the urban extremism warfare guys, thats what happens if u were given enough time to brainwash a certain section of the population.

Now if that was the case of iraq: 5 years independence, USA military machine present to help ON THE GROUND, international help and they couldnt finish the job. Then what about lebanon:

1- 1 year independence
2- military power very weak thanks to the Syrian occupation in addition to infiltrating the entire command from the bottoms up.
3- having 25% of the population controlled by a Zarqawi type of guy, puppeted by syria.
4- everytime the lebanese government wants to move forward, the puppets are moved from syria and threaten internal security.

What we tried to do (i want to finish with this damn subject once and for all):

1- Why is he in our government? we tried to integrate Hizbullah into the government, by that, we give it no excuse to fight the government, so if he do so, it might shake his "intergrity" towards his own shii'a and therefore create cracks inside of the Hizb.

2- the hizb is afraid we sell him to Israel. We tell the Hizb we will be the last Arab country to sign peace with Israel but we do not wage WAR meanwhile!! (this is a critical point)

3- He says we have to liberate Sheb'a. Israel says Sheb'a is Syrian so there is no reason why Hizbullah is Fighting according to the 1559. We try to say that Sheb'a is lebanese, try to prove it in the UN, but we need LAND DEEDS from Syria (by law), what does syria responds: The land is Lebanese so hizbullah can continue his operation, The land is Syrian. (yes they dont confirm it nor deny it, Read the papers)

4- we try to undermine Nasrallah step by step by bringing 2 Shii'a opponents: "sobhi el tofayli" and another guy who was in israeli prisons and was released a few years ago, they are both less radical than Nasrallah, in addition and they are both MORE popular.

5- Why not overthrow bashar? read my last comment before this one

as a conclusion:

Were we doing enough?
Yes, taking more time, but with less problems and lives.

Why not ask the French legions or USA to rid u from Hizbullah?

We dont want Iraq in Lebanon especially that we had a peaceful solution, especially that the time frame is similar: 5 years in Iraq, USA did nothing, 5 years in Lebanon, Lebanon will not be able to remove hizbullah by force (french or american force)

Are we Israelis have to give a damn about a peaceful process, how many israelis should die before that?
300 rockets on Israel are better now eyh?, dead tourist season better eyh?, dead soldiers better eyh?, more hate towards israel in the world better eyh?
Hizbullah was operating in Sheb'a area only after 2005 and 1559 coz we the lebanese were pressuring him.

But it proved that Nasrallah was smarter than the IDF, broke his words with the lebanese and brought destruction on us all. How?

When Hizbullah realized that the Lebanese government has reached a point where his options to use weapons are so small, He crossed the blue line and kidnapped soldiers accross the blue line knowing that the lebanese will be outraged, the IDF will also be outraged, the IDF will attack him. Therefore IDF will attack, and his existence will be justified.

lets see what Iraq u created in lebanon now!!!!!
U had more than 30 years to deal with Hamas, they are still there eyh, on ure own soil? does that mean ure weak, does it mean ur government is weak?

when are u going to realize that the military wont solve ure problems, military is just for defence, Education and Diplomacy are the tools for offense.
Examples: Iraq, Afghanistan, Sumaliya, Darfour, Gaza, and now Lebanon AGAIN !!!!!!!

Shmulik said...

I don't know who is Gary Gambill and I don't care.
why the hell would we want syrians in Lebanon?? we know full well that they use Hizbolla as their proxy and that they arm them to the teeth. this is true now exactly like it was true before. We have clashed and destroyed the Syrian airforce and most of their ground forces in Lebanon in 1982. In fact Israel has repeatedly warned the Syrian to control the Hizballah.
With all respect (no sarcasm) to your cedar revolution It was the US led international pressure (with Israel as a military deterrant) that has kept the syrians from massacaring you the same way like they did in Hama. Please be honest and tell me that you would have risked a civil war with the sh'ites and the Hizballah if Israel didn't make you pay the price for it. Tell me the prevalent state of mind in lebanon wasn't "why do we have to risk ourselves against the Sh'ites in a horrible civil war for Israel's sake??"

Shmulik said...

Jad J: are you trying to tell me that after 8 years of burying our sons because of Lebanese resistanse (let me remind you that our presence in Lebanon was purely defensive we didn't builr settelments for example) we should help you against Syria? Did you help us when the palestinians came to Lebanon and (like the Hizbolah now) turned our most peacful border into a warzone?? BTW some of you did help us and now they are exiles and traitors in your eyes. I don't think that every thing we did in Lebanon was smart or justified but tell me the truth: do you believe that the Hizballah a surian and iranian puppet of religeous extremists would disband peacefully??
If not would you fight a civil war for us?? wouldn't you just take the easy path of talking with them forever while they occasionaly raid our borders?? another point I wish to explain and i am sure you wouln't accept is that because of our withdrawl from Lebanon 6 years ago (which was good but executed in a very cowardly way) Nassaralah and through him all nutjob fundemental islamic terroists got an immense ego boost and started to believe they have found a way to bring us to our knees (is it coincidance the Al-aqsa intifada began just as we withdrew from Lebanon?)my personal opinion (though not admitted by the israeli goverment) is that we hav to show that neighter attacks on our cities nor hiding among innocent civilian population can deter us. We live in the midle-east that's a crazy area.

Jad J said...

no we dont want ure help against syria at the moment, we were doing just fine,, we just use more rationale methods, methods that do not have an Iraqi outcome.

second, dont lecture me about the palestinians, half my relatives were killed by those bastards, and they threw us in a 15 year civil war that ended with a 16 years of syrian accupation.

and no we do not expect them to disband easily, but we expect to isolate the 40,000 nutjob militants from the 1 milion population. Or better (we were getting to it) as i explained in the previous comment but u surely didnt bother to complete reading, we were in a process to make Nasrallah power weaker and divide the powers in the Hizb between 2 other party leaders, that would make it easier to deal with hizbullah doesnt it, especially if the 2 candidates hate syria and iran. Nasrallah is a syrian, Irani puppet and so are his 40,000 militant but not the remaining 959,999 shii'tes clustered around him.

and yes ure withdrawal gave them a big ego boost, and yes it was probably a mistake for u back then, but if u stayed, things wouldve been much different, for the worse that is. one of them is not having the 1559 resolution, syria still in lebanon.. and many other stuff.

again and again, Hizbullah after the syrian withdrawal from lebanon, was only operating in Sheb'a becoz we were able to pressure him, and the area he was working in is 24square KM, as any military man in israel he'll back my words, ure entire northern border was safe except Sheb'a. but the media... the faithful media made it look as if insurgency was on the entire border from what ure saying.

as for ure last sentence, about proving how macho u are, again i repeat, read what wrote in the previous comment, did that get u anywhere with the palestinians?

Jad J said...

as for the last 8 years u were burrying ure sons, that was becoz Hizbullah had more freedom of attack becoz of the syrian occupation, now, the conflict was squeezed in a 24 square KM area before July 12th

Boaz Arad said...

Best analysis of the situation by
Robert Tracinski: “The War Comes to Us”: “If, in the face of repeated threats and provocation by an aggressive dictatorship, you refuse to go to war, the war will eventually come to you….” Read more at:

Shmulik said...

jad J maybe the Hizballah does not admit it to you but in the last 6 years they have indeed attacked in many places along the border, killing soldiers and civilians. I am sure you realise Nasarallah and his puppet-masters would never have stopped attacking us (there is always a pretext when you need one:Shebah farms, prisoners, the palestinian suffering, arab unity and so on and so forth). I am sure you don't want Iraq but we don't want a mini-Iran on our northern border that can attack us with-out provocation when-ever their pupper-masters tell them. Do you honestly believe Nasarallah will ever take orders from Seniora or will he forever continue to obey Ali Hamenai in Iran??

Omer (israeli) said...

Jad j, i enjoyed reading your anlasys. We dont get much of that is israel. The nature of people is to see only their loses and seek revange. Instead of looking on the bigger more complicted reasons. This is causing much trouble, and not only in the ME.
For instance: in my eyes, Israel created the Hamas. When people can't talk they shoot. Now were stuck with a group fuled by extreme muslim views, that won't even allow us to live peacfully even if we retreat from the west-bank (I'm not making this up, look at the Hamas charter: "Complete destruction of isreal").
We pushed them to extreme.
Of course for eventual peace Isreal need's to respect PL' atanomy and right for independence. But the Pl' needs to do for Israel the same.
Why is that?
Because the only other possible solution is war, endless, neverending. I for one am sick and tired of it. Don't get me wrong, I will fight for my country if my survival is at stake. casue this is where my family lives. Most of my family are now at Nahreya which is getting rocketed every day!
But i also don't sit around and do nothing. I protest, I vote, I argue. Us sane people must bring sense into all the blood thirsty mongers out there.
Once and for all, there must be peace in middle-east. Even if takes 100 years, we got to start somewhere...

Shmulik said...

Omer I guess you are more left-wing than me but I assure you that I want peace as much as you do. Do you think that I am an insane war-monger when I say that some problems don't have peacefull solutions (or perhaps a solution at all)?

Omer (israeli) said...

Shmuliks, your views are well known. Did you vote "Avoda" or "Kadima"? I vote "Meretz".
And i know that we both want the same thing, Just diffrent methotds.

Shmulik said...

to Omer "My views are well known" How so?? :) actually I voted for Poraz (and Shinui before that). None the less Do you feel the kind of implacable enemies (on religeous grounds) that Iran and it's puppets (Hamas & Hizbollah) are can be argued with? solved with words?

Omer (israeli) said...

Shmulik, I know very well that situation in Iran will not be solved with words.
But neither with war. Ahminagad is like our hebrew saying "A dogs that barks, doesn't bite".This dog, he barks alot.
To remind you isreal had good relations with Iran up to the Islamic revolution. Dont put fuel on the fire, it will die on its own.
Dont take everything out of proportion, it will only come back worse.

Jad J said...

Shmulik, Omer... at least we all agree on one thing: PEACE.

and as u said its true... u cannot fight forever... I watched the movie "Munich" which is about the team that was in charge of tracking down the terrorists who kidnapped and assassinated the Israeli Olympic team inthe 1970s.

You should watch it, and when u do, just remember me when the Israeli guy talks to the palestinian in that rented appartment in Greece.

it just summarizes the entire dilemma for both sides...

Great movie... should be showed in schools also.

and lets get out of the vicious circle of: "which came first, the egg or the chicken?" and start working on whats after the "Just Rewards". we've started something here, we are talking to each other, i have talked to more israeli in the past 4 days than any in my entire life. You're not the selfish bloodthirsty monster Arab media portray... and u noticed probably by now that lebanese are not iranians, not syrians, not saudis, nor afghani... just lebanese... always remember, oppression, sadness, anger, frustration, lack of education all makes people more vulnerable to brainwash from extremists. they thrive people living those feelings.

John said...

I see some possible hope for the future when this mess is all over with, but it doesn't help things now. If the Lebanese PM moves against Hezbollah in a meaningful way than Israel should ratchet things down or at least give him a hand. Until then I cannot blame them for trying to take the SOBs out. Of course the part that sucks is innocents on both sides are caught in the middle. I also mourn what thus far appears to be the failure of the Cedar Revolution, which I had very high hopes for. I yearn for the day when a free Lebanon and Israel can live side-by-side if not as friends, than at least not as enemies. Both countries have much to offer the region and the world.

Shmulik said...

to Jad J: I must say I really enjoy debating with you (if enjoy is the right word in this sad hour). you must understand that we know that many lebanese are modern and progressive people. In fact I must say i am really suprised of the general level-headedness in this forum in this sad time.
However we also now that in Lebanon as in other places in the middle-east there are people that still have the morals and values of 7th century AD (some of them in Israel BTw, but they are a small and insignificant minority).
I hope we can have peace but peace is an instrument for our security and not the other way around.

Muxecoid said...

jad j, you say peaceful weakening and disarming of Hizbullah was in progress. Don't you think that if your curent prime minister would be assasinated as soon as he becomes powerful enough to weaken Hizbullah?

Jad J said...

Muxecoid, if ure referring to the assassination of Rafic Hariri, i better chart a timeline for everybody here so noone will keep confusing between the year 2000(israeli withdrawal) , 2002 (iraw invasion), 2005 (rafic harriri death, syrian occupation out) and 2006 (somehwat free pacifist government, Israeli bombardment), so i hope noone will mention confuse again the Hizbullah actions between 2000-2005, and after 2005... there is a very very very big difference.

David-Israel said...

Hi Dear Lebanon People....:-)
We all in a war....
This war is not good to Israel, BUT also not for Lebanon !!!
ITS GOOD for Hizbula.

whay does Israel need to fight Lebanon ?
Isnt it better to us have peace with you ?

This time, dear Lebanon people, its more up to you then to us !!!
we cannot force you have peace with us...
you dont have to be my freind, but you should take care for your intrest, that is to live happy peacfull life...

All time Hizbulla, disturb Israel peacfull life, we dont have choice, then to fight Hizbulla.....

and in a war, civilions get hurt,

sorry but this is life.

hope you all stood up against Hizbulla,
( be happy to help you )

Then maybe peace :-)

Love for you all


Israel :-)

MERKOVA said...